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Widespread dispersal of a human commensal across the Pacific: Reconstructing the human-mediated invasion history of the house gecko (Hemidactylus frenatus)

The spread of human commensal species is intricately tied to human movements and historical events. Through waves of human migrations, colonization, trade routes, commercial activities, and war, humans have redistributed species from their native ranges to widely scattered areas across the Pacific. Deciphering the invasion history of recent human-mediated introductions is challenging due to similar genetic signatures arising from these factors, which complicates the identification of specific pathways or sources. The extensive timeline of human events in the Pacific further compounds this challenge, potentially leading to numerous introductions from various regions over an extended period. The house gecko ( Hemidactylus frenatus ), a human commensal native to Southeast Asia, is now widespread in the Pacific region. While its current range is often attributed to activities during and following World War II (WWII), its invasion history necessitates a finer-scale dissection given the dynamic and extensive history of human-mediated introductions in the Pacific. We combine population genetics, phylogenetics, and approximate Bayesian computation to infer the invasion history of the house gecko from its native to its introduced range in the Pacific. Patterns of differentiation across native and introduced populations align with the extent of each region’s wartime involvement and the invasion history reconstruction supports the predicted chronology of introductions given a war-induced spread. This marks the first comprehensive genetic assessment of the house gecko’s invasion history in the Pacific and provides evidence in support of an initial spread across the Pacific consistent with WWII activities.

Biological Invasions

Predator effects on the survival of juvenile invasive carp in simulated backwater habitats

Numerous control methods are in use and under development to manage invasive carps in the United States. Commercial harvest, electric deterrents, and chemical toxicants, among other methods, are most efficient at targeting larger individuals. Research on methods to control recruitment of juvenile invasive carps has been limited. Our primary objective was to assess the vulnerability of juvenile invasive carp and common native forage species, gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ) to native fish predators. Eighteen two-week long experiments, from April–October in 2015 and 2016, were conducted in experimental ponds with differing habitats (structure, vegetation, or open), simulating backwater habitats that are commonly used by juvenile invasive carps. Bowfin ( Amia calva ), channel catfish ( Icatalurus punctatus ), shortnose gar ( Lepisosteus platostomus ), hybrid striped bass ( Morone saxatilis × Morone chrysops ), largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ), blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus ), flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ), walleye ( Sander vitreus ), northern pike ( Esox lucius ), and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) were tested as predators of bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ), silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ), grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), and gizzard shad. We observed prey survival rates across seasons, habitats, and predator species. Invasive carp odds of survival varied from those of native gizzard shad between years. Hybrid striped bass, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass, and northern pike were effective predators of all tested prey species. Largemouth bass and smallmouth bass consumed bighead carp and silver carp over gizzard shad and grass carp (log OR < 0.5). Our results demonstrate the importance of habitat and cover availability, and that predator management may be a potential control method for juvenile invasive carps. Future research may consider effective predator densities, as well as studies in natural habitats.

Management of Biological Invasions

Development of a quantitative PCR method for screening ichthyoplankton samples for bigheaded carps

Monitoring ichthyoplankton is useful for identifying reproductive fronts and spawning locations of bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.). Unfortunately, sorting and identifying ichthyoplankton to monitor for bigheaded carp reproduction is time consuming and expensive. Traditional methods require frequent egg-larvae sampling, sorting of all samples to obtain presumptively identified bigheaded carp, and genetic validation of presumptively identified eggs. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) has the potential to streamline this process by identifying samples that likely do or do not contain a target species. Our objective was to develop a genetic screening tool using qPCR with the duplex assays SCTM4/5 and BHTM1/2 to prioritize samples that have a higher likelihood of containing bigheaded carp eggs or larvae. We used tandem ichthyoplankton samples collected for monitoring bigheaded carps in the Upper Mississippi, Illinois, and St. Croix rivers to evaluate the effectiveness of qPCR as a screening tool. Samples with > 10,000 copies of DNA had 100% occurrence of bigheaded carp eggs or larvae in the traditionally sorted samples, whereas samples with < 10 copies of DNA had 0% occurrence of ichthyoplankton from these invasive species. We used a logistic regression model to calculate the probability of finding bigheaded carp eggs or larvae based upon the number of DNA copies; 406 copies corresponded with a 50% probability of having bigheaded carp ichthyoplankton present in a sample. These data can be used to inform management actions (i.e., control, containment) for these invasive fishes, and this tool could be adapted for monitoring for reproduction of other aquatic invasive species.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Biophysical factors control invasive annual grass hot spots in the Mojave Desert

Invasive annual grasses can promote ecosystem state changes and habitat loss in the American Southwest. Non-native annual grasses such as Bromus spp . a nd Schismus spp. have invaded the Mojave Desert and degraded habitat through increased fire occurrence, severity, and shifting plant community composition. Thus, it is important to identify and characterize the areas where persistent invasion has occurred, identifying where subsequent habitat degradation has increased. Previous plot and landscape-scale analyses have revealed anthropogenic and biophysical correlates with the establishment and dominance of invasive annual grasses in the Mojave Desert. However, these studies have been limited in spatial and temporal scales. Here we use Landsat imagery validated using an extensive network of plot data to map persistent and productive populations of invasive annual grass, called hot spots , across the entire Mojave Desert ecoregion over 12 years (2009–2020). We also identify important variables for predicting hot spot distribution using the Random Forest algorithm and identifying the most invaded subregions. We identified hot spots in over 5% of the Mojave Desert mostly on the western and eastern edges of the ecoregion, and invasive grasses were detected in over 90% of the Mojave Desert at least once in that time. Across the entire Mojave Desert, our results indicate that soil texture, aspect, winter precipitation, and elevation are the highest-ranking predictive variables of invasive grass hot spots , while anthropogenic variables contributed the least to the accuracy of the predictive model. The total area covered by hot spots varied significantly among subregions of the Mojave Desert. We found that anthropogenic variables became more important in explaining invasive annual establishment and persistence as spatial scale was reduced to the subregional level. Our findings have important implications for informing where land management actions can prioritize reducing invasive annual persistence and promoting restoration efforts.

California

Citizen scientists record novel leaf phenology of invasive shrubs in eastern U.S. forests

Invasive shrubs are an emergent concern in deciduous forests of eastern North America. Their extended leaf phenology (ELP) – earlier leaf emergence and later leaf off compared to native shrubs and the overstory canopy – can simultaneously provide photosynthetic benefits to invasive shrubs while negatively affecting native flora and fauna through providing novel understory shade when the overstory canopy is leafless. However, phenology varies geographically, and the degree to which ELP from local-scale studies applies across the range of forests experiencing shrub invasion is unknown. In partnership with the USA National Phenology Network, we developed a citizen science campaign to record broad patterns of species-specific ELP – an otherwise prohibitively large effort. Using 1,500 observations of 14 species spanning 4 years, we found that the difference in leaf phenology between native and invasive shrubs can exceed 77 days within a growing season, a gap that decreases with increasing latitude by 2.9 [1.6, 4.2] days per degree latitude in the spring, and 2.2 [0.6,1.9] in the fall. Geographic trends in ELP provide a context for interpreting local scale phenology research while bridging inconsistent findings between existing studies and can streamline management by targeting detection and removal of invasive shrubs with leaves while natives are dormant. Furthermore, even small changes to seasonal phenology can impact forest communities, especially if there is a differential response to climate cues by nativity. After exploring broad-scale environmental variables associated with leaf phenology, we find a similar correlation with pre-growing season warmth for native and invasive shrubs, but a different relationship with dormant chill days – a variable less frequently considered for modeling spring phenology for forest productivity.

Biological Invasions

Drivers and timing of grass carp movement within the Sandusky River, Ohio: Implications to potential spawning barrier response strategy

Understanding the timing and drivers of migration can be beneficial for improving response efforts aimed at reducing invasive species densities. Efforts by management agencies to remove grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella) , an invasive species to the Laurentian Great Lakes, have been ongoing in Lake Erie tributaries since 2018. To bolster efforts, deployment of a non-physical barrier has been proposed downstream of a known grass carp spawning location near Brady’s Island (BI) in the Sandusky River, OH, USA to limit recruitment. However, knowledge of grass carp migratory timing, the environmental variables that cue carp migration, and the potential effects the barrier might impose on native fish [e.g., walleye ( Sander vitreus )] movements would help inform barrier deployment and scheduling. We used detection data from grass carp ( n = 29) and walleye ( n = 84) tagged with acoustic transmitters to address four objectives: (1) quantify interannual variation (years = 2015–2021) of grass carp migration timing to BI; (2) evaluate timing of different grass carp movement modalities (residents and migrants); (3) assess overlap in migration timing with native walleye, and (4) evaluate environmental cues of grass carp migration to BI. Median grass carp arrival at BI occurred within a three-week period (148–165 Julian days), suggesting that deploying a barrier immediately prior to this time frame may be effective for deterring grass carp spawning. Temperature, photoperiod, and discharge influenced grass carp migration timing given that most arrival events occurred at daylengths > 14.5 h, temperatures exceeding 18 °C, and low discharge events (< 3,000 cubic feet second −1 [CFS]). Minimal interannual variability in migration timing existed for grass carp and walleye over a six-year period. However, the median departure time of walleye was more than 45 days before the median arrival time of grass carp, suggesting a spawning barrier may minimally affect walleye spawning. No differences in arrival timing at BI were observed between grass carp migratory contingents, indicating that if a barrier were deployed in the spring, it would likely affect all grass carp spatial contingents. This work highlights management implications of barrier control efforts of aquatic invasive species and provides insight into the environmental cues that grass carp use for upstream migration.

Ohio

Integrating early detection with DNA barcoding: species identification of a non-native monitor lizard (Squamata: Varanidae) carcass in Mississippi, U.S.A.

Early detection of invasive species is critical to increasing the probability of successful management. At the primary stage of an invasion, invasive species are easier to control as the population is likely represented by just a few individuals. Detection of these first few individuals can be challenging, particularly if they are cryptic or otherwise characterized by low detectability. The engagement of members of the public may be critical to early detection as there are far more citizen s on the landscape than trained biologists. However, it can be difficult to assess the credibility of public reporting, especially when a diagnostic digital image or a physical specimen in good condition are lacking. DNA barcoding can be used for verification when morphological identification of a specimen is not possible or uncertain (i.e., degraded or partial specimen). DNA barcoding relies on obtaining a DNA sequence from a relatively small fragment of mitochondrial DNA and comparing it to a database of sequences containing a variety of expertly identified species. He rein we report the successful identification of a degraded specimen of a non-native, potentially invasive reptile species ( Varanus niloticus ) via DNA barcoding, after discovery and reporting by a member of the public.

Mississippi

Limiting spread of a unicolonial invasive insect and characterization of seasonal patterns of range expansion

Limiting dispersal is a fundamental strategy in the control of invasive species, and in certain situations containment of incipient populations may be an important management technique. To test the feasibility of slowing the rapid spread of two Argentine ant ( Linepithema humile ) supercolonies in Haleakala National Park, Hawaii, we applied ant bait and toxicant within an experimental plot situated along a supercolony boundary. The 120×260 m plot simulated a small section of what could potentially be a 120 m wide treatment encompassing the entire expanding boundaries of both supercolonies. Foraging ant numbers at baited monitoring stations decreased sharply within two weeks after treatment, and ant spread was completely halted within the plot for at least one year. In contrast, an adjacent untreated colony boundary advanced an average of 65.2 m over the course of 1 year. Most of this spread took place in the summer and fall, at the time of highest ant abundance at bait monitoring stations, while no outward dispersal occurred during the spring and early summer. These patterns are consistent with the hypothesis that local budding dispersal in this unicolonial species stems from density dependent pressure rather than inherent founding behavior associated with mating. Based on results from this experiment, we are investigating the effectiveness of annual boundary treatments in slowing the Argentine ant invasion at Haleakala National Park. The goals of this program are to protect populations of native arthropods and to keep options open for eventual attempts at eradication.

Hawaii

Colony social structure in native and invasive populations of the social wasp Vespula pensylvanica

Social insects rank among the most invasive of terrestrial species. The success of invasive social insects stems, in part, from the flexibility derived from their social behaviors. We used genetic markers to investigate if the social system of the invasive wasp, Vespula pensylvanica , differed in its introduced and native habitats in order to better understand variation in social phenotype in invasive social species. We found that (1) nestmate workers showed lower levels of relatedness in introduced populations than native populations, (2) introduced colonies contained workers produced by multiple queens whereas native colonies contained workers produced by only a single queen, (3) queen mate number did not differ significantly between introduced and native colonies, and (4) workers from introduced colonies were frequently produced by queens that originated from foreign nests. Thus, overall, native and introduced colonies differed substantially in social phenotype because introduced colonies more frequently contained workers produced by multiple, foreign queens. In addition, the similarity in levels of genetic variation in introduced and native habitats, as well as observed variation in colony social phenotype in native populations, suggest that colony structure in invasive populations may be partially associated with social plasticity. Overall, the differences in social structure observed in invasive V. pensylvanica parallel those in other, distantly related invasive social insects, suggesting that insect societies often develop similar social phenotypes upon introduction into new habitats.

Biological Invasions

Structural changes in vegetation coincident with annual grass invasion negatively impacts sprint velocity of small vertebrates

Sagebrush ecosystems in the intermountain west of the United States are being threatened by conversion to the non-native grass, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ). The dramatic shift in the physical structure of vegetation coincident with cheatgrass invasion likely has negative impacts on animal communities, yet these structural impacts have not been well-studied. In a previous study, dense cheatgrass stems reduced sprint velocity for the flattened, wide-bodied desert horned lizard ( Phrynosoma platyrhinos ). Here, we asked if a decrease in sprint velocity due to cheatgrass impediment can be generalized to the suite of small vertebrates inhabiting the sagebrush ecosystems of western Utah. We evaluated sprint performance of the common rodent ( n = 3) and lizard ( n = 4) species on two raceway types, cheatgrass and no-cheatgrass, and hypothesized that body size, body shape, and form of movement are important factors influencing sprint velocity through dense cheatgrass stems. All species showed significant reductions in speed on cheatgrass versus no-cheatgrass raceways, with percent reduction greatest for larger, wider, or hopping organisms compared to smaller, more slender, or running organisms. Of concern, surveys for rodents and lizards at our study areas support a common pattern: lower abundances of small vertebrates, as well as a loss of rodent species richness, in areas infested with cheatgrass compared to intact, native sagebrush communities. By extension, we expect a negative impact on animal communities in other semi-arid regions experiencing dramatic shifts in vegetation structure upon invasion by non-native grasses that are capable of forming dense stands in the interspaces of native desert plants [e.g., Sonoran desert invaded by buffelgrass ( Pennisetum ciliare )].

Utah

Can ozone be used to control the spread of freshwater Aquatic Invasive Species?

The introduction of aquatic invasive species to non-native habitats can cause negative ecological effects and also billions of dollars in economic damage to governments and private industries. Once aquatic invasive species are introduced, eradication may be difficult without adversely affecting native species and habitats, urging resource managers to find preventative methods to protect non-invaded areas. The use of ozone (O 3 ) as a non-physical barrier has shown promise as it is lethal to a wide range of aquatic taxa, requires a short contact time, and is relatively environmentally safe in aquatic systems when compared to other chemicals. However, before O 3 can be considered as an approach to prevent the spread of aquatic invasive species, its effects on non-target organisms and already established aquatic invasive species must be fully evaluated. A review of the current literature was conducted to summarize data regarding the effects of O 3 on aquatic taxa including fish, macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, microbes, and pathogens. In addition, we assessed the practicality of ozone applications to control the movement of aquatic invasive species, and identified data gaps concerning the use of O 3 as a non-physical barrier in field applications.

Management of Biological Invasions

Invasive hitchhiking organisms on aquarium plants: An emerging pathway of introduction

The aquarium trade is a global industry responsible for the movement of live plants and animals, but it also serves as a major pathway for the introduction and spread of aquatic invasive species. Invasive species contribute to biodiversity loss, disrupt ecosystems, and can have widespread economic and societal impacts. A significant but poorly understood invasion risk in the plant aquarium trade is the transport of hitchhiking species, which are organisms unintentionally transported along with a species of primary interest in trade. Aquatic hitchhikers can persist in aquaria and later be released into the wild, potentially establishing invasive populations. While some studies have identified hitchhiking as a pathway for aquatic species spread, it remains largely unrecognized in international regulations. Increased awareness, triggered by incidents such as zebra mussels found in aquarium plants, highlights the need for further investigation into this emerging pathway of concern. As a response, we reviewed the current state of knowledge regarding aquatic plants in the aquarium trade as vectors for transporting invasive hitchhiking species, with a particular focus on how morphological complexity of plants influences associated hitchhikers. We found that although awareness of hitchhiking species in the aquarium trade is increasing, few studies have empirically examined aquarium plants as vectors for invasive species. Understanding this pathway can help to inform invasive species management around the plant aquarium trade and to keep aquarium organisms in a sustainable manner.

Management of Biological Invasions

A restructured Bayesian approach to estimate the abundance of a rare and invasive fish

Quantifying invasive species abundance informs management and control strategies. However, estimating abundance can be challenging, particularly when dealing with rare species early in the invasion process. Data generated from control strategies, such as removing invasive species, are usually not suited to conventional statistical modelling approaches. Hence, we developed a Bayesian model using data generated by a grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) control program in the Sandusky River, Ohio (USA) for estimating the abundance of rare, invasive species. The model is a restructured N-mixture model modified to incorporate the data generating process (i.e., setting a trammel net to isolate a sampling area followed by boat-mounted electrofishing). Allowing the estimation of grass carp abundance from the species removal data, which had very few detections relative to the sampling effort. Our results indicated that the average number of grass carp present in the river at any one time did not change substantially from 2018 to 2020. The highest abundance estimates were in the lower and upper-middle segments of the river, suggesting possible recolonization from Lake Erie, and possibly other tributaries. Ultimately, the ability to use species-control data to estimate abundance provides important information for management, particularly for invasive ‘sleeper’ species in freshwater ecosystems.

Ohio

Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States

We quantified broad-scale patterns of species richness and species density (mean # species/km 2 ) for native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes in the continental USA and Hawaii. We hypothesized that the species density of native and non-indigenous taxa would generally decrease in northern latitudes and higher elevations following declines in potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, and precipitation. County data on plants ( n = 3004 counties) and birds ( n =3074 counties), and drainage (6 HUC) data on fishes ( n = 328 drainages) showed that the densities of native and non-indigenous species were strongly positively correlated for plant species ( r = 0.86, P < 0.0001), bird species ( r = 0.93, P <0.0001), and fish species ( r = 0.41, P <0.0001). Multiple regression models showed that the densities of native plant and bird species could be strongly predicted (adj. R 2 = 0.66 in both models) at county levels, but fish species densities were less predictable at drainage levels (adj. R 2 = 0.31, P <0.0001). Similarly, non-indigenous plant and bird species densities were strongly predictable (adj. R 2 = 0.84 and 0.91 respectively), but non-indigenous fish species density was less predictable (adj. R 2 = 0.38). County level hotspots of native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes were located in low elevation areas close to the coast with high precipitation and productivity (vegetation carbon). We show that (1) native species richness can be moderately well predicted with abiotic factors; (2) human populations have tended to settle in areas rich in native species; and (3) the richness and density of non-indigenous plant, bird, and fish species can be accurately predicted from biotic and abiotic factors largely because they are positively correlated to native species densities. We conclude that while humans facilitate the initial establishment, invasions of non-indigenous species, the spread and subsequent distributions of non-indigenous species may be controlled largely by environmental factors.

Biological Invasions

Habitat alteration increases invasive fire ant abundance to the detriment of amphibians and reptiles

Altered habitats have been suggested to facilitate red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) colonization and dispersal, possibly compounding effects of habitat alteration on native wildlife. In this study, we compared colonization intensity of wood cover boards by S. invicta among four forest management treatments in South Carolina, USA: an unharvested control (>30 years old); a partially thinned stand; a clearcut with coarse woody debris retained; and a clearcut with coarse woody debris removed. Additionally, we compared dehydration rates and survival of recently metamorphosed salamanders (marbled salamanders, Ambystoma opacum, and mole salamanders, A. talpoideum) among treatments. We found that the number of wood cover boards colonized by S. invicta differed significantly among treatments, being lowest in the unharvested forest treatments and increasing with the degree of habitat alteration. Salamanders that were maintained in experimental field enclosures to study water loss were unexpectedly subjected to high levels of S. invicta predation that differed among forest treatments. All known predation by S. invicta was restricted to salamanders in clearcuts. The amount of vegetative ground cover was inversely related to the likelihood of S. invicta predation of salamanders. Our results show that S. invicta abundance increases with habitat disturbance and that this increased abundance has negative consequences for amphibians that remain in altered habitats. Our findings also suggest that the presence of invasive S. invicta may compromise the utility of cover boards and other techniques commonly used in herpetological studies in the Southeast. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biological Invasions

Evaluation of the functional roles of fungal endophytes of Phragmites australis from high saline and low saline habitats

Non-native Phragmites australis decreases biodiversity and produces dense stands in North America. We surveyed the endophyte communities in the stems, leaves and roots of collections of P. australis obtained from two sites with a low and high salt concentration to determine differences in endophyte composition and assess differences in functional roles of microbes in plants from both sites. We found differences in the abundance, richness and diversity of endophytes between the low saline collections (18 species distributed in phyla Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Stramenopiles (Oomycota); from orders Dothideales, Pleosporales, Hypocreales, Eurotiales, Cantharellales and Pythiales; Shannon H = 2.639; Fisher alpha = 7.335) and high saline collections (15 species from phylum Ascomycota; belonging to orders Pleosporales, Hypocreales, Diaporthales, Xylariales and Dothideales; Shannon H = 2.289; Fisher alpha = 4.181). Peyronellaea glomerata , Phoma macrostoma and Alternaria tenuissima were species obtained from both sites. The high salt endophyte community showed higher resistance to zinc, mercury and salt stress compared to fungal species from the low salt site. These endophytes also showed a greater propensity for growth promotion of rice seedlings (a model species) under salt stress. The results of this study are consistent with the ‘habitat-adapted symbiosis hypothesis’ that holds that endophytic microbes may help plants adapt to extreme habitats. The capacity of P. australis to establish symbiotic relationships with diverse endophytic microbes that enhance its tolerance to abiotic stresses could be a factor that contributes to its invasiveness in saline environments. Targeting the symbiotic associates of P. australis could lead to more sustainable control of non-native P. australis .

Biological Invasions

Widespread plant species: natives vs. aliens in our changing world

Estimates of the level of invasion for a region are traditionally based on relative numbers of native and alien species. However, alien species differ dramatically in the size of their invasive ranges. Here we present the first study to quantify the level of invasion for several regions of the world in terms of the most widely distributed plant species (natives vs. aliens). Aliens accounted for 51.3% of the 120 most widely distributed plant species in North America, 43.3% in New South Wales (Australia), 34.2% in Chile, 29.7% in Argentina, and 22.5% in the Republic of South Africa. However, Europe had only 1% of alien species among the most widespread species of the flora. Across regions, alien species relative to native species were either as well-distributed (10 comparisons) or more widely distributed (5 comparisons). These striking patterns highlight the profound contribution that widespread invasive alien plants make to floristic dominance patterns across different regions. Many of the most widespread species are alien plants, and, in particular, Europe and Asia appear as major contributors to the homogenization of the floras in the Americas. We recommend that spatial extent of invasion should be explicitly incorporated in assessments of invasibility, globalization, and risk assessments.

Biological Invasions

Multistate models of bigheaded carps in the Illinois River reveal spatial dynamics of invasive species

Knowledge of the spatial distributions and dispersal characteristics of invasive species is necessary for managing the spread of highly mobile species, such as invasive bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp [ Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ] and Silver Carp [ H. molitrix ]). Management of invasive bigheaded carps in the Illinois River has focused on using human-made barriers and harvest to limit dispersal towards the Laurentian Great Lakes. Acoustic telemetry data were used to parameterize multistate models to examine the spatial dynamics of bigheaded carps in the Illinois River to (1) evaluate the effects of existing dams on movement, (2) identify how individuals distribute among pools, and (3) gauge the effects of reductions in movement towards the invasion front. Multistate models estimated that movement was generally less likely among upper river pools (Starved Rock, Marseilles, and Dresden Island) than the lower river (La Grange and Peoria) which matched the pattern of gated versus wicket style dams. Simulations using estimated movement probabilities indicated that Bighead Carp accumulate in La Grange Pool while Silver Carp accumulate in Alton Pool. Fewer Bighead Carp reached the upper river compared to Silver Carp during simulations. Reducing upstream movement probabilities (e.g., reduced propagule pressure) by ≥ 75% into any of the upper river pools could reduce upper river abundance with similar results regardless of location. Given bigheaded carp reproduction in the upper Illinois River is presently limited, reduced movement towards the invasion front coupled with removal of individuals reaching these areas could limit potential future dispersal towards the Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes