Search USGS⌕ Search

USGS · sir20215005

Supporting data and simulation of hypothetical bighead carp egg and larvae development and transport in the Ohio River between Markland Locks and Dam and McAlpine Locks and Dam, Kentucky and Indiana, by use of the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator

Abstract

Data collection, along with hydraulic and fluvial egg transport modeling, was completed along a 70.9-mile reach of the Ohio River between Markland Locks and Dam and McAlpine Locks and Dam in Kentucky and Indiana. Water-quality data collected in this reach included surface measurements and vertical profiles of water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, relative chlorophyll, and relative phycocyanin. Data were collected during two surveys: October 27–November 4, 2016, and June 26–29, 2017. Streamflow and velocity data were collected simultaneously with the water-quality data at cross sections and along longitudinal lines (corresponding to the water-quality surface measurements) and at selected stationary locations (corresponding to the water-quality vertical profiles). The data were collected to understand variability of flow and water-quality conditions relative to simulated reaches of the Ohio River and to aid in identifying parts of the reach that may provide conditions favorable to spawning and recruitment habitat for Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (bighead carp). A copy of an existing step-backwater model of Ohio River flows was obtained from the National Weather Service and used to simulate hydraulic conditions for four different streamflows. Streamflows were selected to represent typical conditions ranging from a high-streamflow event to a seasonal dry-weather event, with two streamflows between these extremes for this reach of the Ohio River. Outputs from the hydraulic model, a range of five water temperatures observed in water-quality data, and four potential spawning locations were used as input to the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to simulate the extents and quantile positions of developing bighead carp, from egg hatching to the gas bladder inflation stage, under each scenario. A total of 80 simulations were run. Results from the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator scenarios (which include only the hydraulic influences on survival that result from settling, irrespective of mortality from other physical or biological factors such as excess turbulence, fertilization failure, predation, or starvation) indicate that most eggs will hatch, about half will die, and a quarter of the surviving larvae will reach the gas bladder inflation stage within the model reach. The overall mean percentage of embryos surviving to the gas bladder inflation stage was 13.1 percent. Individual simulations have embryo survival percentages as high as 49.1 percent. The highest embryo survival percentages occurred for eggs spawned at a streamflow of 38,100 cubic feet per second and water temperatures of 24 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conversely, embryo survival percentages were lowest for the lowest and highest streamflows regardless of water temperature or spawn location. Under low water temperature and high-streamflow conditions, some of the eggs did not hatch nor did the larvae reach the gas bladder inflation stage until passing beyond the downstream model domain. Although the final quantile positions of the eggs and larvae beyond the downstream model domain are unknown, the outcomes still provide useful information about conditions favorable to spawning and recruitment habitat for bighead carp in the Ohio River.

Explore related subjects

90° N90° S · 180° W ← longitude → 180° E
Source-reported bounding extent: 38.40194908237822° to 38.85682013474361° latitude; -85.660400390625° to -84.935302734375° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Chad J. Ostheimer, Justin A. Boldt, Paul M. Buszka. 2021-03-17. Supporting data and simulation of hypothetical bighead carp egg and larvae development and transport in the Ohio River between Markland Locks and Dam and McAlpine Locks and Dam, Kentucky and Indiana, by use of the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215005

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

Analysis of groundwater geochemistry in the Lansing, Michigan, area

Groundwater resources in the Lansing, Michigan, area are protected by a wellhead protection plan, but previous studies have indicated that groundwater in this area may be susceptible to surface contamination. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lansing Board of Water & Light, analyzed geochemical and aquifer characteristics to assess the potential for contamination of groundwater resources. Recharge age categories were determined from tritium concentrations for some wells, and by using ternary diagrams and principal component analysis for other wells. These age classifications, combined with hydrogeologic and geochemical data, were analyzed by using statistical methods to identify trends that may indicate areas of increased groundwater susceptibility. Wells with modern recharge tended to have higher sodium, chloride, and chloride:bromide ratios than did wells with mixed recharge, suggesting greater surface connectivity and potential influence from anthropogenic sources such as road salt. In contrast, wells in the mixed age category exhibited more stable geochemistry and lower constituent concentrations. Classification and regression tree models identified aquifer geometry—particularly the thickness of the uppermost bedrock unit and presence of confining layers—as key predictors of recharge age and geochemical indicators. The trends identified from these analyses could help to reveal locations in the Lansing area that are among the most susceptible to contamination.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluating the number of realizations (train-test splits) necessary to ensure robust estimates of conventional hydrothermal resource favorability using Monte Carlo cross-validation, the Great Basin, Western USA

Supervised machine learning approaches used to produce favorability maps in resource assessments commonly partition an input dataset into training and testing subsets (that is, through train-test splits). However, if a single split is not representative of underlying resource conditions, the resulting favorability map may be biased, particularly with sparse or heterogeneous datasets. To mitigate the potential for unrepresentative favorability maps, recent works by U.S. Geological Survey researchers have used Monte Carlo cross-validation to implement a large number ( n) of randomized train-test splits to produce n realizations. The realizations are then aggregated using cell-wise median predictions to produce the resulting final favorability map, recognizing that the median will remove extreme values that might have been estimated from a comparatively few unrepresentative realizations. Theoretically, the median prediction at every cell converges to a single estimate as n approaches infinity, and the question addressed herein is: How many realizations are necessary to get a robust estimate (that is, an estimate unaffected by additional realizations)? Therefore, convergence metrics are described to identify the number of train-test splits and realizations needed to make a reliable map using the data and supervised machine learning workflow for conventional hydrothermal resource assessment of the Great Basin of the Western United States. For this study, robust prediction occurs with n approximately equal to 600 realizations, and smaller ensembles (for example, n is approximately equal to 200 or even 100) may be suitable during preliminary or exploratory analyses. Although the resulting threshold numbers will vary depending on the data and modeling approach used, the convergence metrics proposed and applied herein are applicable to other supervised machine learning studies that use Monte Carlo cross-validation.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

Groundwater budget for the Portneuf River Basin, southeastern Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, developed the first groundwater budget for the upper Portneuf River Basin in southeastern Idaho, a tributary of the Snake River. A groundwater budget for the Portneuf River Basin supports water resource and administrative management decisions within the basin and for downstream users of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. The analysis quantifies inflows, outflows, and residuals for an aquifer system defined by the Idaho Department of Water Resources under three recent precipitation conditions: an average year (2016), a dry year (2021), and a wet year (2023). The budget was calculated for the basin and for two subbasins delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage Portneuf River at Topaz, Idaho (13073000): the above Topaz subbasin, which includes the Portneuf-Gem valley, and the below Topaz subbasin, which includes Marsh Valley. Aquifer inflows include mountain-front recharge; areal recharge; recharge from applied water, including recharge from irrigation, canal seepage, and effluent returns; groundwater flow into the basin; and reservoir seepage. Outflows include groundwater pumping for agricultural, municipal, and domestic uses; subsurface outflow through the Portneuf gap; and discharge to streams as base flow. Estimated annual inflows for the full basin ranged from 116,880 acre-feet in 2021 to 154,880 acre-feet in 2023, and outflows ranged from 132,190 acre-feet in 2016 to 158,490 acre-feet in 2023. Basinwide residuals, the change in storage plus uncertainty, were −2,410 acre-feet in 2016, −18,410 acre-feet in 2021, and −3,610 acre-feet in 2023, and each subbasin had a mixture of negative and positive residuals. These basinwide results, interpreted as change in storage plus water-budget uncertainty, indicate minor net losses that increase with dry conditions, consistent with well depth-to-water measurements indicating gradual multi-decadal declines. Patterns in subbasin residuals are driven by irrigation practices and surface-water management; for example, the above Topaz subbasin relies more on groundwater for irrigation, resulting in more negative residuals during dry years. In contrast, the below Topaz subbasin depends more on surface water, producing positive residuals during dry years because of irrigation losses and canal seepage. The analyses for both subbasins indicate decades-long groundwater declines, which agree with the overall negative residuals calculated. The largest sources of uncertainty include climate inputs (precipitation and evapotranspiration) and poorly constrained components such as groundwater inflow and tributary stream infiltration. These findings provide insight into how climatic variables and irrigation practices affect groundwater inflows and outflows within the Portneuf River Basin.

Idaho↗