Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Daniel E Kaufman; Gary W. Shenk; Gopal Bhatt; Kevin Asplen; Olivia H. Devereux; Jessica Rigelman; J. Hugh Ellis; Benjamin F Hobbs; Darrell J Bosch; George L Van Houtven; Arthur E McGarity; Lewis C. Linker; William P. Ball

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105141

USGS · 70224975

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Daniel E Kaufman·Gary W. Shenk·Gopal Bhatt·Kevin Asplen·Olivia H. Devereux·Jessica Rigelman·J. Hugh Ellis·Benjamin F Hobbs·Darrell J Bosch·George L Van Houtven·Arthur E McGarity·Lewis C. Linker·William P. Ball

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Abstract

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary . The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

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Environmental Modelling & Software Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 36.48314061639213° to 42.98053954751642° latitude; -80.771484375° to -74.278564453125° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Daniel E Kaufman, Gary W. Shenk, Gopal Bhatt, Kevin Asplen, Olivia H. Devereux, Jessica Rigelman, J. Hugh Ellis, Benjamin F Hobbs, Darrell J Bosch, George L Van Houtven, Arthur E McGarity, Lewis C. Linker, William P. Ball. 2021. Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105141

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