Geology topics

William P. Ball

Publications and source records attributed to William P. Ball.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and opportunities regarding the response of the Chesapeake Bay estuary to restoration efforts

As part of the Chesapeake Bay Program's (CBP's) Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) initiative "Achieving Water Quality Goals in the Chesapeake Bay: An Evaluation of System Response", an Estuary Working Group was formed to generate an assessment of scientific knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and recent ecosystem changes to consider in light of CBP's impending goal of full implementation of management measures (Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL] agreements and associated necessary stakeholder actions) that are being finalized and designed to achieve living resource-based nutrient targets by 2025. This document summarizes aspects of the knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and associated needs and opportunities relating to our understanding of how the Chesapeake Bay estuary has responded to previously implemented management plans, and what features of the ecosystem may slow or enhance its response to future management actions in the face of expected continuations of climatic change.

Chesapeake Bay estuary↗

USGS2021

The Chesapeake Bay program modeling system: Overview and recommendations for future development

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Chesapeake Bay estuary and watershed↗

USGS2021

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary . The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2016

Long-term changes in sediment and nutrient delivery from Conowingo Dam to Chesapeake Bay: Effects of reservoir sedimentation

Reduction of suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen is an important focus for Chesapeake Bay watershed management. The Susquehanna River, the bay’s largest tributary, has drawn attention because SS loads from behind Conowingo Dam (near the river’s mouth) have been rising dramatically. To better understand these changes, we evaluated histories of concentration and loading (1986–2013) using data from sites above and below Conowingo Reservoir. First, observed concentration-discharge relationships show that SS and TP concentrations at the reservoir inlet have declined under most discharges in recent decades, but without corresponding declines at the outlet, implying recently diminished reservoir trapping. Second, best estimates of mass balance suggest decreasing net deposition of SS and TP in recent decades over a wide range of discharges, with cumulative mass generally dominated by the 75&sim;99.5th percentile of daily Conowingo discharges. Finally, stationary models that better accommodate effects of riverflow variability also support the conclusion of diminished trapping of SS and TP under a range of discharges that includes those well below the literature-reported scour threshold. Overall, these findings suggest that decreased net deposition of SS and TP has occurred at subscour levels of discharge, which has significant implications for the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.

Maryland↗

USGS2016

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export ( i.e. , source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania↗