Search USGS⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70195754

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Michael C. Stambaugh·Richard P. Guyette·Esther D. Stroh·Matthew A. Struckhoff·Joanna B. Whittier
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Explore related subjects

Climate ChangeArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Michael C. Stambaugh, Richard P. Guyette, Esther D. Stroh, Matthew A. Struckhoff, Joanna B. Whittier. 2018-02-26. Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2156-8

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2023

Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems

Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change are difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three interrelated categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Climate Change↗
USGS2020

Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change

Air temperatures (Ta) are rising in a changing climate, increasing extreme temperature events. Examining how Ta increases are influencing extreme temperatures at the soil surface and belowground in the soil profile can refine our understanding of the ecological consequences of rising temperatures. In this paper, we validate surface and soil temperature (Ts: 0–100-cm depth) simulations in the SOILWAT2 model for 29 locations comprising 5 ecosystem types in the central and western USA. We determine the temperature characteristics of these locations from 1980 to 2015, and explore simulations of Ta and Ts change over 2030–2065 and 2065–2100 time periods using General Circulation Model (GCM) projections and the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. We define temperature extremes using a nonstationary peak over threshold method, quantified from standard deviations above the mean (0- σ : an event >∼ "> >∼ >∼ 51% of extreme events; 2- σ :>∼ 98 % "> σ :>∼ 98 % σ:>∼98% ). Our primary objective is to contrast the magnitude ( ∘ C) and frequency of occurrence of extreme temperature events between the twentieth and twenty-first century. We project that temperatures will increase substantially in the twenty-first century. Extreme Ta events will experience the largest increases by magnitude, and extreme Ts events will experience the largest increases by proportion. On average, 2- σ extreme Ts events will increase by 3.4 ∘ C in 2030–2065 and by 5.3 ∘ C in 2065–2100. Increases in extreme Ts events will often exceed + 10 ∘ C at 0–20 cm by 2065–2100, and at 0–100 cm will often exceed 5.0 standard deviations above 1980–2015 values. 2- σ extreme Ts events will increase from 0.9 events per decade in 1980–2015 to 23 events in 2030–2065 and 38 events in 2065–2100. By 2065–2100, the majority of months will experience extreme events that co-occur at 0–100 cm, which did not occur in 1980–2015. These projections illustrate the non-analog temperature increases that ecosystems will experience in the twenty-first century as a result of climate change.

Climate Change↗
USGS2018

On the contribution of waves to total coastal water level changes in the context of sea level rise: a response to Melet, et al. (2018)

Response to Melet, A., Meyssignac, B., Almar, R. & Le Cozannet, G. Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 234–239 (2018). In a recent paper, Melet et al.1 claim that the contribution of wind-waves to coastal sea-level rise has been under-estimated. Although we agree with the overall premise that coastal wind-wave dynamics are important when assessing the full coastal impacts of sea-level rise, we argue that the paper is misleading.

Climate Change↗