Geology topics

Michael C. Stambaugh

Publications and source records attributed to Michael C. Stambaugh.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned

Rapid increases in wildfire area burned across North American forests pose novel challenges for managers and society. Increasing area burned raises questions about whether, and to what degree, contemporary fire regimes (1984–2022) are still departed from historical fire regimes (pre-1880). We use the North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), a multi-century record comprising >1800 fire-scar sites spanning diverse forest types, and contemporary fire perimeters to ask whether there is a contemporary fire surplus or fire deficit, and whether recent fire years are unprecedented relative to historical fire regimes. Our results indicate, despite increasing area burned in recent decades, that a widespread fire deficit persists across a range of forest types and recent years with exceptionally high area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. For example, ‘record’ contemporary fire years such as 2020 burned 6% of NAFSN sites—the historical average—well below the historical maximum of 29% sites that burned in 1748. Although contemporary fire extent is not unprecedented across many North American forests, there is abundant evidence that unprecedented contemporary fire severity is driving forest loss in many ecosystems and adversely impacting human lives, infrastructure, and water supplies.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2025

Spatiotemporal synchrony of climate and fire occurrence across North American forests (1750-1880)

Aim Increasing aridity has driven widespread synchronous fire occurrence in recent decades across North America. The lack of historical (pre-1880) fire records limits our ability to understand long-term continental fire-climate dynamics. The goal of this study is to use tree-ring reconstructions to determine the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns in historical climate and widespread fire occurrence in North American forests, and whether they are stable through time. This information will address a major knowledge gap required to inform projections of future fire. Location North American Forests. Time Period 1750–1880 CE. Major Taxa Studies Trees. Methods We applied regionalisation methods to tree-ring reconstructions of historical summer soil moisture and annual fire occurrence to independently identify broad- and fine-scale climate and fire regions based on common inter-annual variability. We then tested whether the regions were stable through time and for spatial correspondence between the climate and fire regions. Last, we used correlation analysis to quantify the strength of the fire-climate associations through time. Results We found that broad-scale historical patterns in climate and fire have strong spatial coherence. Although climate and fire regions vary over time, large core areas of the regions were stable. The association between climate and fire varied through time and was strongest in western North America, likely due to a combination of factors, such as the magnitude of drought frequency and severity, as well as varying use of fire by human communities. Main Conclusions The historical perspective gained through tree-ring reconstructions of climate and fire patterns and their association suggests that climate-driven synchrony of fire across large areas of the continent in recent decades is not unprecedented, will likely continue into the future, and may exhibit similar spatial patterns.

North America↗

USGS2022

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus . Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2021

Fire and forests in the 21st century: Managing resilience under changing climates and fire regimes in USA forests

Higher temperatures, lower snowpacks, drought, and extended dry periods have contributed to increased wildfire activity in recent decades. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of large fires, the cumulative area burned, and fire suppression costs and risks in many areas of the USA. Fire regimes are likely to change due to interactions among climate, fire, and other stressors and disturbances; resulting in persistent changes in forest structure and function. The remainder of the twenty-first century will present substantial challenges, as natural resource managers are faced with higher fire risk and the difficult task of maintaining ecological function in a rapidly changing biophysical and social landscape. Fuel treatments will continue to be important for minimizing the undesirable ecological effects of fire, and for enhancing firefighter safety; however, treatments must be implemented strategically across large areas. Collaboration among agencies, private landowners, and other organizations will be critical for ensuring resilience and sustainable forest management.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Robust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States

Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale's climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2018

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010 , Amoroso et al., 2017 ). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochronologists recognized that tree rings retained fire scars (e.g., Figure 1) , and hence a record of past fires, they have conducted studies worldwide to reconstruct the historical range and variability of fire regimes (e.g., frequency, severity, seasonality, spatial extent), the influence of fire regimes on forest structure and ecosystem dynamics, and the top-down (e.g., climate) and bottom-up (e.g., fuels, topography) drivers of fire that operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. As in other scientific fields, continued application of dendrochronological techniques to study fires has shaped new trajectories for the science. Here we highlight some important current directions in the United States (US) and call on our international colleagues to continue the conversation with perspectives from other countries.

Fire↗

USGS2018

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Climate Change↗

USGS2018

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Fire Ecology↗

USGS2017

Regeneration and invasion of cottonwood riparian forest following wildfire

Populus deltoides is considered to be a weak resprouter and highly susceptible to wildfire, but few post-wildfire studies have tracked P. deltoides response and resprouting within the Great Plains of North America. Following a wildfire in southwestern Kansas, U.S.A., we surveyed burned and unburned areas of a cottonwood riparian forest along the Cimarron River that included a major understory invader, tamarisk ( Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.). We tested the following hypotheses, which are consistent with the current understanding of P. deltoides response to wildfire in the Great Plains: (1) regeneration of P. deltoides will be low in areas burned by the wildfire; (2) the number of dead P. deltoides individuals will be greater in the wildfire than unburned areas; and (3) tamarisk regeneration will be higher than P. deltoides regeneration in the wildfire areas because tamarisk is considered a stronger resprouter. We found evidence contrary to two of our hypotheses 3 years following the wildfire. (1) P. deltoides regeneration was high following the wildfire, averaging 692 individuals/ha. (2) The number of dead mature cottonwood trees was greater in wildfire plots than in unburned plots. (3) There was more P. deltoides regeneration than tamarisk regeneration following wildfire. These findings, which diverge from the majority of studies examining P. deltoides regeneration in the Great Plains, suggest that differing local environmental and forest stand conditions, coupled with the timing and intensity of the fire, could be important determinants of riparian forest species' responses to wildfire.

Kansas↗

USGS2017

Biogeography: An interweave of climate, fire, and humans

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) is an icon of the southeastern United States and has been considered a foundation species in forests, woodlands, and savannas of the region (Schwarz 1907; Platt 1999). Longleaf pine is an avatar for the extensive pine-dominated, fire-dependent ecosystems (Figure 2.1) that provide habitats for thousands of species and have largely vanished from the landscape. Longleaf pine is one of the world's most resilient and fire-adapted trees (Keeley and Zedler 1998), widely perceived as the sole dominant in forests across a large area of the Southeast (Sargent 1884; Mohr 1896; Wahlenberg 1946). Longleaf pine was once a primary natural resource, providing high-quality timber, resins, and naval stores that fueled social changes and economic growth through the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Fire effects on wildlife in Central Hardwoods and Appalachian regions

Fire is being prescribed and used increasingly to promote ecosystem restoration (e.g., oak woodlands and savannas) and to manage wildlife habitat in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachian regions, USA. However, questions persist as to how fire affects hardwood forest communities and associated wildlife, and how fire should be used to achieve management goals. We provide an up-to-date review of fire effects on various wildlife species and their habitat in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians. Documented direct effects (i.e., mortality) on wildlife are rare. Indirect effects (i.e., changes in habitat quality) are influenced greatly by light availability, fire frequency, and fire intensity. Unless fire intensity is great enough to kill a portion of the overstory, burning in closed-canopy forests has provided little benefit for most wildlife species in the region because it doesn’t result in enough sunlight penetration to elicit understory response. Canopy reduction through silvicultural treatment has enabled managers to use fire more effectively. Fire intensity must be kept low in hardwoods to limit damage to many species of overstory trees. However, wounding or killing trees with fire benefits many wildlife species by allowing increased sunlight to stimulate understory response, snag and subsequent cavity creation, and additions of large coarse woody debris. In general, a fire-return interval of 2 yr to 7 yr benefits a wide variety of wildlife species by providing a diverse structure in the understory; increasing browse, forage, and soft mast; and creating snags and cavities. Historically, dormant-season fire was most prevalent in these regions, and it still is when most prescribed fire is implemented in hardwood systems as burn-days are relatively few in the growing season of May through August because of shading from leaf cover and high fuel moisture. Late growing-season burning increases the window for burning, and better control on woody composition is possible. Early growing-season fire may pose increased risk for some species, especially herpetofauna recently emerged from winter hibernacula (April) or forest songbirds that nest in the understory (May to June). However, negative population-level effects are unlikely unless the burned area is relatively large and early growing-season fire is used continually. We did not find evidence that fire is leading to population declines for any species, including Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed species (e.g., Indiana bat [ Myotis sodalis Mill. Allen] or northern long-eared bat [ M. septentrionalis Trouess.]). Instead, data indicate that fire can enhance habitat for bats by increasing suitability of foraging and day-roost sites. Similarly, concern over burning and displacement of woodland salamanders (Plethodontidae), another taxa of heightened conservation concern, is alleviated when fire is prescribed along ecologically appropriate aspect and slope gradients and not forced into mesic, high site index environments where salamanders are most common. Because topography across the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians is diverse, we contend that applying fire on positions best suited for burning is an effective approach to increase regional landscape heterogeneity and biological diversity. Herein, we offer prescriptive concepts for burning for various wildlife species and guilds in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians.

Appalachian region, Central Hardwoods region↗

USGS2016

A dynamic leaf gas-exchange strategy is conserved in woody plants under changing ambient CO 2 : evidence from carbon isotope discrimination in paleo and CO 2 enrichment studies

Rising atmospheric [CO 2 ], c a , is expected to affect stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange of woody plants, thus influencing energy fluxes as well as carbon (C), water, and nutrient cycling of forests. Researchers have proposed various strategies for stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange that include maintaining a constant leaf internal [CO 2 ], c i , a constant drawdown in CO 2 ( c a − c i ), and a constant c i / c a . These strategies can result in drastically different consequences for leaf gas-exchange. The accuracy of Earth systems models depends in part on assumptions about generalizable patterns in leaf gas-exchange responses to varying c a . The concept of optimal stomatal behavior, exemplified by woody plants shifting along a continuum of these strategies, provides a unifying framework for understanding leaf gas-exchange responses to c a . To assess leaf gas-exchange regulation strategies, we analyzed patterns in c i inferred from studies reporting C stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) or photosynthetic discrimination (∆) in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms that grew across a range of c a spanning at least 100 ppm. Our results suggest that much of the c a -induced changes in c i / c a occurred across c a spanning 200 to 400 ppm. These patterns imply that c a − c i will eventually approach a constant level at high c a because assimilation rates will reach a maximum and stomatal conductance of each species should be constrained to some minimum level. These analyses are not consistent with canalization toward any single strategy, particularly maintaining a constant c i . Rather, the results are consistent with the existence of a broadly conserved pattern of stomatal optimization in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms. This results in trees being profligate water users at low c a , when additional water loss is small for each unit of C gain, and increasingly water-conservative at high c a , when photosystems are saturated and water loss is large for each unit C gain.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2013

Oak woodlands and forests fire consortium: A regional view of fire science sharing

The Joint Fire Science Program established 14 regional fire science knowledge exchange consortia to improve the delivery of fire science information and communication among fire managers and researchers. Consortia were developed regionally to ensure that fire science information is tailored to meet regional needs. In this paper, emphasis was placed on the Oak Woodlands and Forests Fire Consortium to provide an inside view of how one regional consortium is organized and its experiences in sharing fire science through various social media, conference, and workshop-based fire science events.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

Changes to oak woodland stand structure and ground flora composition caused by thinning and burning

Our objective was to quantify the cumulative eﬀects of prescribed burning and thinning on forest stocking and species composition at a woodland restoration experiment site in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri. Our study used four treatments (burn, harvest, harvest and burn, control) on three slope position and aspect combinations (south, north, ridge) replicated in three complete blocks. Harvested stands were thinned from below to 40 percent residual stocking. Two prescribed ﬁres were applied to both burn and harvest-burn treatment units in a 5-year period. Results reﬂect changes that have taken place over a 6-year period, from pretreatment conditions to 1 year after the last ﬁre. In this period, there was a 10-percent reduction in the stocking in burned stands compared to control and a 6-percent reduction in harvested and burned stands compared to harvested stands. Compared to the control, percentage ground cover of woodland indicators was seven times greater in burned stands, six times greater in harvested stands, and 22 percent greater in harvested and burned stands. Th ere was no signiﬁcant (P > 0.05) interaction between aspect and treatment on stocking or ground ﬂora cover. Th is study indicated that silvicultural treatments do achieve various goals that are common to managers who aim to restore woodland communities.

Missouri↗