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Research about Florida

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Florida.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Navigating new threats: Prey naivete in native mammals

1. Invasive predators pose a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Native prey species frequently exhibit naïveté to the cues of invasive predators, and this phenomenon may contribute to the disproportionate impact of invasive predators on prey populations. However, not all species exhibit naïveté, which has led to the generation of many hypotheses to explain patterns in prey responses. These hypotheses primarily fall into two categories: system-centric hypotheses related to biogeographic isolation (BIH) and species-centric hypotheses, like the arche type similarity hypothesis (ASH). 2. We tested the predictions of these hypotheses by assessing the response of the common raccoon ( Procyon lotor ) and hispid cotton rat ( Sigmodon hispidus ), two native mammal species with divergent snake predation histories, to the cues of the invasive Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) in the Florida Everglades (USA). Using giving-up densities (GUDs), we assessed the responses of both cotton rats and raccoons to life-size replicas of Burmese pythons and two North American predators eastern diamondback rattlesnakes ( Crotalus adamanteus ) and coyotes ( Canis latrans ). 3. Although cotton rats increased their GUD in the presence of all three predators relative to the novel-object control, raccoons only increased their GUD in coyote treatments. 4. These results align with the predictions of the ASH but not the BIH, and mirror observed patterns of population declines in invaded areas of the Florida Everglades. 5. More broadly, our findings suggest that naïveté may contribute to the vulnerability of some species to invasive predators even in large continental systems

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USGS2025

Biophysical simulation of wetland surface water flow to predict changing water availability in the Everglades

A central challenge for water managers is to adaptively manage water availability to meet societal needs while simultaneously protecting ecosystems. Progress restoring the Everglades requires predictions of how overland flow of surface water can be increased to rehydrate and revive downstream areas without causing unintended harms. We developed a biophysical flow rate expression (BioFRE) that relates shallow overland flow to roughness dominated by spatially variable vegetation and microtopography. Hydraulic theory was combined with vegetation and topographic field data to quantify hydraulic roughness without calibrating the expression to fit hydrologic data. To assess changes in overland flow capacity, we benchmarked BioFRE against best available simulations of the historic Everglades and against present-day hydrologic data representing various levels of degradation. The simulations revealed that overland flow capacity of the Everglades in now half of what it was historically in the Everglades primarily because of the loss of deepwater sloughs. The relative sensitivity of simulated flows to the individual biophysical factors was quantified and related to habitat value and drought and flood resilience. Our approach can potentially be used in other flowing wetland and floodplain systems to understand and adaptively manage water and ecological resources.

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USGS2025

Phytoplankton assemblage structure, drivers, and thresholds with a focus on harmful algal bloom ecology in the Lake Okeechobee system, Florida, USA

Untangling the complexities of harmful algal bloom (HAB) dynamics is an ongoing effort that requires a fundamental understanding of spatiotemporal phytoplankton patterns and the environmental filters through which assemblages are structured. To this aim, monthly field surveys were conducted from 2019 to 2021 at 21 sites in Lake Okeechobee, Florida – a large, shallow, eutrophic, and heavily managed lake with coastal connectivity that experiences intense and recurrent HABs. Phytoplankton assemblages were strongly spatially structured forming 7 distinct lake zones with significant dissimilarity in composition and total abundance. While successional patterns were not apparent across seasons or wet/dry periods, total phytoplankton abundance was significantly greater towards the end of the wet season. Distance-based linear models using 16 abiotic variables were used to identify significant explanatory variables of spatial and temporal patterns. The spatial model explained 93 % of the variability suggesting deterministic processes largely control spatial patterns. The temporal model explained only 48 % of the temporal variability suggesting stochasticity in lake-wide shifts in assemblages over time. However, the strong spatial structuring of assemblages may preclude lake-wide succession patterns. Total algal abundance metrics were inversely related to nitrate, orthophosphate, and total alkalinity, the strongest explanatory variables of assemblage patterns, suggesting a lag between peak resources and peak abundance as phytoplankton cycle “boom-to-bust” phases. Consistent with this inverse relationship, Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis returned almost exclusively negative responder indicator taxa for all three explanatory variable gradients. The assemblage-level threshold defined the gradient boundary between boom- and bust-associated indicator taxa. These data contribute novel information about HABs ecology pertinent to management strategies.

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USGS2025

Cyanotoxin production in shallow subtropical lakes is driven by nutrient enrichment and primary producer abundance on the millennial scale

Increased cyanotoxin concentrations from harmful algal blooms (HABs) in lake systems pose a global challenge to water quality. Although progress has been made in monitoring cyanotoxins in modern environments over recent decades, identifying the triggers of cyanotoxin release by cyanobacteria has yielded mixed results from experimental and analytical studies. Paleolimnological reconstructions can reveal whole-lake long-term changes, but few studies have directly measured cyanotoxins alongside other water quality proxies. Here, we investigated the drivers of sedimentary total microcystin (MC) concentrations on millennial scales in hypereutrophic Lakes Dora and Marian in central Florida, USA. We analyzed dated sediment records using paleolimnological techniques to reconstruct nutrient deposition, cyanobacteria abundance (photosynthetic pigments), and cyanotoxins (total MCs). The objective was to investigate the linkage between MC concentrations in the sediments with both biotic (cyanobacteria and other primary producers) and abiotic factors (nutrients and climate). We found that MC production occurred throughout the ∼7000-year period, progressing from periods of moderate to low, and then to high concentrations in both lakes. Statistical analyses showed that historical MC concentrations were correlated with sedimentary measurements of total phosphorus (TP), cyanobacteria abundance, and other primary producer groups, such as cryptophytes. However, there was only a minimal correspondence with climate proxies, such as charcoal and pollen, suggesting that internal nutrient cycling and human pressures were the dominant drivers of MC deposition. Our study demonstrates that cyanotoxins have occurred for millennia in both lakes with maintained relationships to nutrients and other environmental factors that existed both in historic and modern limnological conditions.

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USGS2025

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

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USGS2025

Hybrid coral reef restoration can be a cost-effective nature-based solution to provide protection to vulnerable coastal populations

Coral reefs can mitigate flood damages by providing protection to tropical coastal communities whose populations are dense, growing fast, and have predominantly lower-middle income. This study provides the first fine-scale, regionally modeled valuations of how flood risk reductions associated with hybrid coral reef restoration could benefit people, property, and economic activity along Florida and Puerto Rico’s 1005 kilometers of reef-lined coasts. Restoration of up to 20% of the regions’ coral reefs could provide flood reduction benefits greater than costs. Reef habitats with the greatest benefits are shallow, nearshore, and fronting low-lying, vulnerable communities, which are often where reef impacts and loss are the greatest. Minorities, children, the elderly, and those below the poverty line could receive more than double the hazard risk reduction benefits of the overall population, demonstrating that reef restoration as a nature-based solution can have positive returns on investment economically and socially by providing protection to the most vulnerable people.

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USGS2025

An early detection rapid response case study of the Black and White Tegu (Salvator merianae) and implications for a broader framework

Documentation of successful early detection rapid response (EDRR) efforts is lacking from the scientific literature but is needed to inform invasive species response protocols. The Black and White tegu (Salvator merianae) has become established in several Florida counties and its spread is of significant conservation concern. It is of high priority for state and federal managers to prevent the spread into sensitive ecosystems, including the Greater Everglades. Thus, coordinated EDRR efforts are essential given limited infrastructure and funding for such tasks. While tegus have been observed along the eastern boundary of Everglades National Park, there has been no evidence tegus are established within Big Cypress National Preserve. On 8 August 2024 an individual tegu was sighted by a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) biologist in Big Cypress National Preserve who alerted National Park Service (NPS) staff and mobilized a response. Live traps were placed at the location of sighting within 24 hours and an individual tegu was captured on 13 August 2024. The individual tegu was determined to be the same individual that was observed five days early based on color, pattern, and other physical characteristics. No additional tegus were captured. The rapid, coordinated response of NPS and USGS likely contributed to this successful EDRR event, and highlights the need for more expansive EDRR frameworks at multiple jurisdictional scales.

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USGS2025

Statistical review of systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys (2008-2023) for monitoring American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) nests in Everglades National Park

We reviewed current (2008-2023) protocols for monitoring American alligator nests in Everglades National Park (ENP) using a qualitative statistical review framework that emphasizes connecting measurable objectives with evaluation of survey design elements. Our review outlined the statistical assumptions that, if severely violated, would prevent defensible inferences from being drawn regarding the three alligator nesting metrics monitored in ENP’s systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys: nest effort (number of nests), nest distribution, and nest fate. After evaluating the current survey and inference methods, we offer potential adjustments or augmentations to the design and models currently used to better account for potential error sources and align the stated objectives with statistical inferences.

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USGS2024

Societal benefits of cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom management in Lake Okeechobee in Florida—Potential damages avoided during the 2018 event under U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System scenarios

Freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) formed by blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, have emerged as a global environmental problem. Their negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems can affect the benefits nature provides to human society by reducing water quality; inhibiting aquatic recreation; killing fish, wildlife, and pets; and posing a risk to human health. To manage harmful algal blooms, the Engineer Research and Development Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is developing an advanced technology called the Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System (HABITATS), which has been tested in pilot demonstrations upstream of spillways at HAB-affected waterbodies in Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperators from the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Policy Analysis investigated the societal benefits of HABITATS technology by using data from an actual 2018 harmful algal bloom in Lake Okeechobee to characterize the observed societal impacts and then comparing observed effects to hypothetical scenarios of HABITATS deployment. This study estimated an economic value of $5.5 million in foregone recreation as a result of closed boating ramp facilities and other restrictions on aquatic recreation such as fishing and swimming during the 2018 cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom outbreak. The change in housing sales prices that could have resulted from murky water or bad odor during that outbreak was estimated as $2.3 million. The team also investigated drinking water contamination and human illness but did not find significant societal impacts in this case. If HABITATS had been deployed, the avoided losses less the cost of management could have provided net societal benefits that ranged between negative $2.1 million and positive $0.8 million, depending on the vertical distribution of algae in the water column and the HABITATS version used. The study’s estimated societal benefit is undoubtedly a lower bound estimate because current scientific knowledge is inadequate to characterize, or monetize, all the impacts.

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USGS2024

Sea level rise threatens Florida’s insular vertebrate biodiversity

Islands are some of the most biodiverse places on earth, but they are also hotspots of biodiversity loss. The coastline of Florida, U.S.A., is surrounded by thousands of islands, many of which are home to species that occur nowhere else. A rapidly emerging threat to these low-lying islands is inundation as sea levels rise. The capacity of island-dwelling species to adapt to climate change and sea level rise may be limited because many species do not have the ability to shift their distribution off the island to track favorable conditions. We assessed the vulnerability of Florida’s islands to inundation from sea level rise and estimated the terrestrial biodiversity on Florida’s islands that could be lost. Our models predicted that by 2100, over 80% and up to 90% of Florida’s islands could be completely inundated from sea level rise, depending on the sea level rise projection (1.2 m or 2.2 m). Of the 85 mammalian, reptilian, and amphibian species on our subset list of Florida’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need, over half occur on Florida’s islands for at least part of their range, highlighting the importance of these islands for housing Florida’s rich biodiversity. Notably, at least 12 mammal species and 7 reptile species have their entire distribution on Florida’s islands, and this count is likely an underestimate. Projections of future sea level rise mean that these island-endemic species face the threat of extinction in the wild if their island habitat is submerged.

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USGS2024

Assessment of the interconnection between Tampa Bay and the Floridan aquifer system: Historical groundwater data compilation and analysis, 1976–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey used existing data collected after the last major navigational channel modification in the mid-1980s to investigate groundwater levels and chloride concentrations in wells in the Floridan aquifer system and other aquifers beneath and near Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is located on the west-central coast of Florida and provides access for commercial shipping. In 2021, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began to investigate alternatives to improve the efficiency of the deep-draft navigation channels within Tampa Bay, reduce costs, improve safety, and analyze the implications of modifying navigational channels. The Floridan aquifer system underlies Tampa Bay and is the primary source of public water supply in the region. Modifications to the channels have the potential to expose the Floridan aquifer system to the saltwater in Tampa Bay, with the potential to increase salinity in wells in the region. Other factors affecting the groundwater levels and the location of the freshwater/saltwater interface were also examined, including changes in sea level, groundwater extraction, and variations in climate. Groundwater levels and well-construction reports were used to identify whether different aquifer units are well-connected. Twelve wells had available data before and after the last major channel modifications, which took place in the 1980s, with six datasets of chloride concentration available in areas along the northern and eastern coastline of Tampa Bay, which is nearest to historical dredging activities. Of these six, Kendall’s τ and p -values indicated increasing trends in chloride concentration for three datasets (TR 11-2, TR 10-2, 51), no trend in chloride concentration for two datasets (TR 9-3, 50), and a decreasing trend in chloride concentration for one dataset (TR 9-1). The upward trends in chloride concentration observed for TR 10-2 and 51 are likely the result of changes in local groundwater withdrawals. Well TR 11-2 had a gradual increasing trend in chloride concentration, fresh groundwater throughout the period of record, and a 3- to 4-foot increase in hydraulic head during the period of record, possibly caused by the construction and control of the Tampa Bypass Canal, resulting in changes to the regional potentiometric surface.

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USGS2024

Assessment of fresh groundwater discharge and saline surface-water intrusion at Operable Unit 2, North Chevalier Field Disposal Area (Site 11), Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida, 2018–22

Site 11 is a former landfill at North Chevalier Field Disposal Area in Operable Unit 2 at Naval Air Station Pensacola, in northwest Florida. Site 11 is adjacent to Bayou Grande, a shallow, tidally influenced, saline estuary of the Pensacola Bay watershed. Federal and Florida regulators have expressed concern that contaminants detected in groundwater beneath the inland parts of Site 11 may discharge to Bayou Grande. In 2017, the Department of Defense, U.S. Navy, Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command Southeast asked the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the occurrence of fresh groundwater discharge to Bayou Grande at Site 11 and to delineate to the extent practicable the location of groundwater discharge. Between 2018 and 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey used a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach that included a visual method and three physical methods based on the temperature difference between groundwater and surface water to assess groundwater discharge. One of the physically based methods also used the difference in specific conductance between fresh groundwater and brackish to saline surface water. Combined, the data indicate that fresh groundwater from across Site 11 discharges primarily along the shoreline of the northern and northeastern part of Site 11. The data also indicate that saline surface water from Bayou Grande intrudes tens of feet into the shallow aquifer beneath Site 11. The combined data indicate that the interface between fresh groundwater and saline surface water changes over space and time. Any new monitoring wells proposed for installation near the shoreline of Site 11 should include approaches to monitor the changes in the location of the freshwater/saltwater interface. Care would need to be taken to collect any groundwater samples at the correct season and tidal period to provide the highest probability of collecting a representative sample of Site 11 groundwater unaffected by saltwater.

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USGS2024

High-Flow Experimental Outcomes to Inform Everglades Restoration, 2010–22

The Decompartmentalization Physical Model (DPM) was an experimental facility in the central Everglades operated between 2010 and 2022 to release high flows through a levee-enclosed area of degraded ridge and slough wetland that had been isolated from flow for sixty years. The purpose of DPM experimental program was to make measurements before, during, and after seasonal high-flow releases that could help guide the Congressionally authorized Everglades restoration project known as the Decompartmentalization and Sheet Flow Enhancement Project. The DPM facility was operated by the South Florida Water Management District, with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and several universities participating in experimental design and leading aspects of the research. The USGS research at DPM focused on measuring high-flow hydraulics and its sedimentary and ecological responses in downstream wetlands. USGS investigated interactions between flow and vegetation and microtopography that influenced flow velocity and water depth, bed shear stress, sediment entrainment, and the resulting downstream transport of suspended sediment and fate of particle-associated phosphorus. USGS also investigated high-flow changes in water-column mixing and gas exchange and resulting effects on metabolism of the aquatic ecosystem (primary productivity and respiration). USGS also investigated effects of built structures such as levee gaps that were constructed to reconnect levee-enclosed basins. This report describes the methods and results of the USGS-led data collection at DPM. The USGS studies at DPM have identified factors that influence effectiveness of restoration, specifically how high-flow releases maximize sheet flow and affect sediment and nutrient dynamics while minimizing undesirable outcomes caused by past management that bypassed wetlands by conveying polluted water through canals to ecologically sensitive downstream areas. The DPM high-flow experiments reconnected the Water Conservation Area 3A and Water Conservation Area 3B basins, and it therefore has become a central feature of the restoration’s Decompartmentalization and Sheet Flow Enhancement Project. DPM’s scientific findings have already influenced the adaptive management of Everglades restoration in guiding elements of the final design and implementation of the Central Everglades Planning Project-South. In addition to serving Everglades restoration, the DPM has the potential to influence similar adaptive management programs throughout the nation’s network of federal and state-managed river corridors, floodplains, and riparian ecosystems.

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USGS2024

A new water temperature modeling approach to predict thermal habitat suitability for nonnative cichlids in Florida rivers

As global temperatures increase, the spatiotemporal arrangement of thermal habitats in Florida rivers may shift, creating the potential for greater dispersal and establishment of nonnative tropical freshwater fishes. To understand how water temperature changes may affect the spatial distribution of these nonnative species, more effective water temperature prediction models are necessary. Currently, most models employ either a generalized air–water temperature relationship or require expensive and complicated tools to measure hydrometeorological factors (e.g. groundwater input). Thus, we developed a novel modeling approach that is accurate, accessible, and cost-effective in allowing fisheries managers to project water temperatures in rivers across Central and North Florida. To characterize the potential for nonnative fishes to spread northward, we evaluated two hardy and abundant species currently found primarily in South Florida: Mayan Cichlid ( Mayaheros urophthalmus ) and Oscar ( Astronotus ocellatus ). Our results show an increase in thermally suitable winter days for both species in 10 of 11 rivers studied, consistent with predicted water temperature warming under 16 climate-change scenarios spanning different levels of air temperature warming (+1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C) and precipitation/groundwater thermal sensitivity (0, 0.33, 0.66, 1). Considering resource limitations, fisheries managers can use our water temperature modeling approach to predict effects of climate change on Mayan Cichlid and Oscar survival, growth, and dispersal and take actions to manage potential northward movement of these species.

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USGS2024

Mangrove freeze resistance and resilience across a tropical-temperate transitional zone

Freeze events govern the distribution and structure of mangrove ecosystems, especially in tropical-temperate transitional zones. Understanding mangrove responses to freezing is crucial for predicting their poleward expansion under climate change. However, there is a need for field-based measurements of mangrove freeze resistance and resilience. After an extreme winter storm in December 2022, we measured mangrove post-freeze damage and recovery (January and November 2023), building on a pre-freeze baseline assessment conducted in July 2022 across 12 sites along the temperature gradient of Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast (USA). Low-temperature thresholds for leaf damage to Avicennia germinans , Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa were quantified near −6, −4 and − 4°C, respectively. Thresholds for mortality were found to be near −6 to −7°C for A. germinans and −4 to −5°C for R. mangle . A threshold for loss of reproductivity in A. germinans was identified near −6 to −7°C. Resprouting was observed in all three species but limited to just one individual for R. mangle . Surviving A. germinans resprouted vigorously and had the greatest number of resprout branches, which was proportional to leaf damage. Tall A. germinans had a higher resprout percentage than short trees. Strata-specific differences in freeze damage were most pronounced for R. mangle , with higher damage in tall versus short trees, while no difference was found between A. germinans strata. These results suggest that R. mangle population recovery may depend on the growth of short trees, while A. germinans can recover from all strata. Minimum air temperature was strongly correlated with mangrove height and above-ground biomass. Projections of future minimum temperature and species-specific freeze degree days predict warming winters, suggesting further mangrove development and range expansion under climate change. Synthesis : Collectively, our study advances understanding of mangrove responses to freezing and identifies low-temperature thresholds for each species, aiding predictions of mangrove range expansion.

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USGS2024

Benthic community metrics track hydrologically stressed mangrove systems

Mangrove restoration efforts have increased in order to help combat their decline globally. While restoration efforts often focus on planting seedlings, underlying chronic issues, including disrupted hydrological regimes, can hinder restoration success. While improving hydrology may be more cost-effective and have higher success rates than planting seedlings alone, hydrological restoration success in this form is poorly understood. Restoration assessments can employ a functional equivalency approach, comparing restoration areas over time with natural, reference forests in order to quantify the relative effectiveness of different restoration approaches. Here, we employ the use of baseline community ecology metrics along with stable isotopes to track changes in the community and trophic structure and enable time estimates for establishing mangrove functional equivalency. We examined a mangrove system impacted by road construction and recently targeted for hydrological restoration within the Rookery Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, Florida, USA. Samples were collected along a gradient of degradation, from a heavily degraded zone, with mostly dead trees, to a transition zone, with a high number of saplings, to a full canopy zone, with mature trees, and into a reference zone with dense, mature mangrove trees. The transition, full canopy, and reference zones were dominated by annelids, gastropods, isopods, and fiddler crabs. Diversity was lower in the dead zone; these taxa were enriched in 13 C relative to those found in all the other zones, indicating a shift in the dominant carbon source from mangrove detritus (reference zone) to algae (dead zone). Community-wide isotope niche metrics also distinguished zones, likely reflecting dominant primary food resources (baseline organic matter) present. Our results suggest that stable isotope niche metrics provide a useful tool for tracking mangrove degradation gradients. These baseline data provide critical information on the ecosystem functioning in mangrove habitats following hydrological restoration.

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