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Groundwater & aquifers

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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft 3 /s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft 3 /s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft 3 /s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft 3 /s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft 3 /s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

South Dakota↗

USGS2020

Groundwater age and susceptibility of south Atlantic and Gulf Coast principal aquifers of the contiguous United States

Groundwater susceptibility to contamination was investigated by using environmental tracer-based groundwater age metrics in the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast principal aquifer systems of the Southeastern Coastal Plain, Mississippi embayment–Texas coastal uplands, and the Coastal Lowlands. Samples of dissolved gas, tritium, sulfur hexafluoride, tritiogenic helium, and carbon-14 were collected from 231 public supply wells in the 3 principal aquifer systems. Dissolved gas models were used to characterize recharge conditions and they identified recharge mechanisms that ranged from rapid, but short-lived, water table rises (possibly associated with large scale flooding), to slower diffuse recharge not associated with large water table fluctuations. Dissolved gas and geochemical correction models were used to calculate and (or) correct tracer concentrations before input to lumped parameter models of groundwater age. Lumped parameter models that were fit to tracer concentrations indicated groundwater was relatively old across the aquifer systems, with an estimated mean age of about 30,000 years. Estimates of groundwater age were related to hydrogeology, with increasing groundwater ages associated with greater depth, confinement, and distance from the recharge zone. Young groundwater with mean ages less than 2,000 years generally was in unconfined parts of the aquifer system, except for local areas of heavy groundwater extraction from unconfined aquifer units where estimated mean ages were up to 15,000 years. Lumped parameter model optimized age distributions describe the relative contribution of differing flow paths to the mean age, and a composite distribution of all samples from the three aquifer systems indicated that about 15 percent of the total sampled water had an age of less than 100 years. Various metrics of susceptibility, to land surface and geogenic contamination sources, derived from the age distributions, indicated geogenic sources as the primary threat to groundwater quality in the aquifer systems. Values of the susceptibility index (unitless) and fraction of recharge since 2,000 and 15,000 years before present are provided for assessment of individual well susceptibility. The data and interpretation methods presented here provide an additional means of investigating the susceptibility and sustainability of groundwater resources of the Southeastern Coastal Plain, Mississippi embayment–Texas coastal uplands, and the Coastal Lowlands aquifer systems.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Groundwater-quality data in the North San Francisco Bay Shallow Aquifer study unit, 2012: results from the California GAMA Program

Groundwater quality in the 1,850-square-mile North San Francisco Bay Shallow Aquifer (NSF-SA) study unit was investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from April to August 2012, as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program’s Priority Basin Project (PBP). The GAMA-PBP was developed in response to the California Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted in collaboration with the SWRCB and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The NSF-SA study unit was the first study unit to be sampled as part of the second phase of the GAMA-PBP, which focuses on the shallow aquifer system. The GAMA NSF-SA study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated-groundwater quality in the shallow aquifer systems and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of untreated-groundwater quality throughout California. The shallow aquifer system in the NSF-SA study unit was defined as the part of the aquifer system that is used by many private domestic wells and is shallower than the primary aquifer system used by many public-supply wells. In the NSF-SA study unit located in Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma Counties, groundwater samples were collected from 71 wells. Seventy of the wells were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study unit (grid wells), and one well was selected to aid in evaluation of water-quality issues (understanding well). The groundwater samples were analyzed for organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], pesticides, and pesticide degradates); constituents of special interest (perchlorate and 1,2,3-trichloropropane [1,2,3-TCP]); naturally occurring inorganic constituents (trace elements, nutrients, major and minor ions, silica, and total dissolved solids [TDS]); and radioactive constituents (radon-222 and gross alpha and gross beta radioactivity). Naturally occurring isotopes (stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, boron, strontium, and inorganic carbon in water, tritium activities, and carbon-14 abundances) were measured to help identify the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. In total, 207 constituents and water-quality indicators were measured. Three types of quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and matrix spikes) were collected at up to 13 percent of the wells in the NSF-SA study unit, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. Blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination from sample-collection procedures was not a significant source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Replicate samples generally were within the limits of acceptable analytical reproducibility. Matrix-spike recoveries were within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent) for approximately 91 percent of the compounds. Most of the wells sampled for this study were private domestic wells. Private domestic wells are not regulated in California, and groundwater from these wells is rarely analyzed for water-quality constituents. Although regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality do not apply to private domestic wells, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the untreated groundwater were compared with regulatory and non-regulatory health-based benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH), to non-regulatory health-based benchmarks established by the USGS in cooperation with the USEPA, and to non-regulatory benchmarks established for aesthetic concerns by the CDPH. Comparisons between data collected for this study and benchmarks for drinking water are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with those benchmarks. Most of the organic and inorganic constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the 70 grid wells in the NSF-SA study unit were detected at concentrations less than drinking-water benchmarks. Of the 149 organic and special-interest constituents analyzed for in groundwater samples, 31 were detected; concentrations of most detected constituents were less than regulatory and non-regulatory health-based benchmarks. One VOC, benzene, and one insecticide, dieldrin, were detected at concentrations above their respective health-based benchmarks. In total, VOCs were detected in 40 percent of the grid wells sampled, pesticides and pesticide degradates were detected in 13 percent, and perchlorate was detected in 27 percent of the 70 grid wells sampled. Groundwater samples from 70 grid wells were analyzed for trace elements, major and minor ions, nutrients, and radioactive constituents; most detected concentrations were less than health-based benchmarks. Exceptions are 12 detections of manganese greater than the USGS Health-Based Screening Level (HBSL), 7 detections of arsenic greater than the USEPA maximum contaminant level (MCL-US) of 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L), 2 detections of boron greater than the HBSL of 6,000 μg/L, 2 detections of fluoride greater than the CDPH maximum contaminant level (MCL-CA) of 2 milligrams per liter (mg/L), 2 detections of nitrate greater than the MCL-US of 10 mg/L, and two detections of radon-222 greater than the proposed MCL-US of 4,000 picocuries per liter. Results for constituents with non-regulatory benchmarks set for aesthetic concerns from the grid wells showed that iron concentrations greater than the CDPH secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL-CA) of 300 μg/L were detected in 13 grid wells. Chloride was detected at a concentration greater than the SMCL-CA recommended benchmark of 250 mg/L in two grid wells. Sulfate concentrations greater than the SMCL-CA recommended benchmark of 250 mg/L were measured in two grid wells, and the concentration in one of these wells was also greater than the SMCL-CA upper benchmark of 500 mg/L. TDS concentrations greater than the SMCL-CA recommended benchmark of 500 mg/L were measured in 15 grid wells, and concentrations in 4 of these wells were also greater than the SMCL-CA upper benchmark of 1,000 mg/L.

California↗

USGS2013

Estimated rates of groundwater recharge to the Chicot, Evangeline and Jasper aquifers by using environmental tracers in Montgomery and adjacent counties, Texas, 2008 and 2011

Montgomery County is in the northern part of the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area, the fourth most populous metropolitan area in the United States. As populations have increased since the 1980s, groundwater has become an important resource for public-water supply and industry in the rapidly growing area of Montgomery County. Groundwater availability from the Gulf Coast aquifer system is a primary concern for water managers and community planners in Montgomery County and requires a better understanding of the rate of recharge to the system. The Gulf Coast aquifer system in Montgomery County consists of the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, the Burkeville confining unit, and underlying Catahoula confining system. The individual sand and clay sequences of the aquifers composing the Gulf Coast aquifer system are not laterally or vertically continuous on a regional scale; however, on a local scale, individual sand and clay lenses can extend over several miles. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, collected groundwater-quality samples from selected wells within or near Montgomery County in 2008 and analyzed these samples for concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), tritium (3H), helium-3/tritium ( 3 He/ 3 H), helium-4 ( 4 He), and dissolved gases (DG) that include argon, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen and oxygen. Groundwater ages, or apparent age, representing residence times since time of recharge, were determined by using the assumption of a piston-flow transport model. Most of the environmental tracer data indicated the groundwater was recharged prior to the 1950s, limiting the usefulness of CFCs, SF 6 , and 3 H concentrations as tracers. In many cases, no tracer was usable at a well for the purpose of estimating an apparent age. Wells not usable for estimating an apparent age were resampled in 2011 and analyzed for concentrations of major ions and carbon-14 ( 14 C). At six of these wells, additional 4 He and DG samples were collected and analyzed. Recharge rates estimated from environmental tracer data are dependent upon several hydrogeologic variables and have inherent uncertainties. By using the recharge estimates derived from samples collected from 14 wells completed in the Chicot aquifer for which apparent groundwater ages could be determined, recharge to the Chicot aquifer ranged from 0.2 to 7.2 inches (in.) per year (yr). Based on data from one well, estimated recharge to the unconfined zone of the Evangeline aquifer (outcrop) was 0.1 in./yr. Based on data collected from eight wells, estimated rates of recharge to the confined zone of the Evangeline aquifer ranged from less than 0.1 to 2.8 in./yr. Based on data from one well, estimated recharge to the unconfined zone of the Jasper aquifer (outcrop) was 0.5 in./yr. Based on data collected from nine wells, estimated rates of recharge to the confined zone of the Jasper aquifer ranged from less than 0.1 to 0.1 in./yr. The complexity of the hydrogeology in the area, uncertainty in the conceptual model, and numerical assumptions required in the determination of the recharge rates all pose limitations and need to be considered when evaluating these data on a countywide or regional scale. The estimated recharge rates calculated for this study are specific to each well location and should not be extrapolated or inferred as a countywide average. Local variations in the hydrogeology and surficial conditions can affect the recharge rate at a local scale.

Texas↗

USGS2012

Groundwater status and trends for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

Well information and groundwater-level measurements for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, were compiled from data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and seven other organizations. From the full set of about 60,000 wells and 450,000 water-level measurements a subset of 761 wells within the aquifers of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) then was used to develop a simple linear groundwater-level trend map for 1968–2009. The mean of the trends was a decline of 1.9 feet per year (ft/yr), with 72 percent of the water levels in wells declining. Rates of declines greater than 1.0 ft/yr were measured in 50 percent of wells, declines greater than 2.0 ft/yr in 38 percent of wells, declines greater than 4.0 ft/yr in 29 percent of wells, and declines greater than 8.0 ft/yr in 4 percent of wells. Water-level data were used to identify groups of wells with similar hydraulic heads and temporal trends to delineate areas of overall similar groundwater conditions. Discontinuities in hydraulic head between well groups were used to help infer the presence of barriers to groundwater flow such as changes in lithology or the occurrence of folds and faults. In areas without flow barriers, dissimilarities in response of well groups over time resulted from the formation of groundwater mounds caused by recharge from irrigation or regions of decline caused by pumping. The areas of focus for this analysis included the Umatilla area, Oregon, and the Palouse Slope/eastern Yakima Fold Belt in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) consisting of Adams, Franklin, Grant, and Lincoln Counties, Washington. In the Umatilla area, water levels from 286 wells were used to identify multiple areas of high hydraulic gradient that indicate vertical and horizontal barriers to groundwater flow. These barriers divide the groundwater-flow system into several compartments with varying degrees of interconnection. Horizontal flow barriers commonly correspond to mapped geologic structure and result in horizontal hydraulic gradients that progressively become steeper from north to south corresponding to an increase in structural complexity that may be impeding recharge from the uplands into the heavily developed areas. Most CRBG aquifers in the Umatilla area are declining and since 1970, cumulative declines range from about 100 to 300 feet. Significant vertical hydraulic gradients are documented for relatively small areas near Umatilla, and since the 1970s, downward vertical gradients in these areas have been increasing as hydraulic heads in the deeper units have declined. The absence of vertical gradients over much of the area may be a consequence of flow through commingling wells that results in the equilibration of the heads between aquifers. On the Palouse Slope in the central GWMA, large groundwater declines occurred during 1968–2009 along a north-south swath in the middle of the region. An analysis of 1,195 wells along major flow paths and through the area of persistent groundwater-level declines indicates that barriers to flow are not as evident in this area as in Umatilla. This is consistent with the geologic interpretation of the Palouse Slope as being a gently folded structure created by voluminous sheet flows of CRBG lavas. Groundwater discharge into the sediment-filled coulees, where the upper aquifers are intersected at land surface by incised canyons, is proposed as an alternative to explain local steepening of the hydraulic gradient along the Palouse Slope previously attributed to the presence of a groundwater dam. Comparison of generalized potentiometric surface maps developed for pre-development conditions and post-2000 conditions indicate that pre-development groundwater flow was from the uplands toward the Columbia and Snake River and that post-2000 flow patterns in the area are controlled by irrigation practices that have resulted in broad regions of elevated or depressed hydraulic head. In some cases, irrigation-related changes in head have reversed groundwater flow directions. Evidence of significant vertical hydraulic gradients exists, although much of the aquifer thickness is affected by commingling of wells. The effect of commingling and its relative contribution to problems related to groundwater-level declines remains unclear.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗

USGS2025

Hydrogeology, water budget, and simulated groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Arkansas River and Chikaskia River alluvial aquifers, northern Oklahoma, 1980–2020

The 1973 Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute §82–1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s aquifers to determine the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an updated hydrologic investigation of the Salt Fork Arkansas River and Chikaskia River alluvial aquifers in northern Oklahoma for the study period spanning 1980–2020 and evaluated the simulated effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater flow and availability in the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer. A hydrogeologic framework and conceptual model were developed to guide the development of a numerical model. Three groundwater-availability scenarios were evaluated by using the calibrated numerical model, which was focused on the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates for the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer under normal recharge conditions were about 0.63, 0.58, and 0.57 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Projected 50-year groundwater withdrawal scenarios were used to simulate the effects of modified well withdrawal rates. Because well withdrawals were less than 2 percent of the calibrated numerical-model water budget, changes to the well groundwater withdrawal rates had little effect on simulated Salt Fork Arkansas River base flows and groundwater storage in the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the potential effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage. Groundwater storage at the end of the hypothetical drought period was 14.5 percent less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model without the simulated drought.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2009

Comparison of groundwater flow in Southern California coastal aquifers

Development of the coastal aquifer systems of Southern California has resulted in overdraft, changes in streamflow, seawater intrusion, land subsidence, increased vertical flow between aquifers, and a redirection of regional flow toward pumping centers. These water-management challenges can be more effectively addressed by incorporating new understanding of the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical setting of these aquifers. Groundwater and surface-water flow are controlled, in part, by the geologic setting. The physiographic province and related tectonic fabric control the relation between the direction of geomorphic features and the flow of water. Geologic structures such as faults and folding also control the direction of flow and connectivity of groundwater flow. The layering of sediments and their structural association can also influence pathways of groundwater flow and seawater intrusion. Submarine canyons control the shortest potential flow paths that can result in seawater intrusion. The location and extent of offshore outcrops can also affect the flow of groundwater and the potential for seawater intrusion and land subsidence in coastal aquifer systems. As coastal aquifer systems are developed, the source and movement of ground-water and surface-water resources change. In particular, groundwater flow is affected by the relative contributions of different types of inflows and outflows, such as pump-age from multi-aquifer wells within basal or upper coarse-grained units, streamflow infiltration, and artificial recharge. These natural and anthropogenic inflows and outflows represent the supply and demand components of the water budgets of ground-water within coastal watersheds. They are all significantly controlled by climate variability related to major climate cycles, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The combination of natural forcings and anthropogenic stresses redirects the flow of groundwater and either mitigates or exacerbates the potential adverse effects of resource development, such as declining water levels, sea-water intrusion, land subsidence, and mixing of different waters. Streamflow also has been affected by development of coastal aquifer systems and related conjunctive use. Saline water is the largest water-quality problem in Southern California coastal aquifer systems. Seawater intrusion is a significant source of saline water, but saline water is also known to come from other sources and processes. Seawater intrusion is typically restricted to the coarse-grained units at the base of fining-upward sequences of terrestrial deposits, and at the top of coarsening upward sequences of marine deposits. This results in layered and narrow intrusion fronts. Maintaining the sustainability of Southern California coastal aquifers requires joint management of surface water and groundwater (conjunctive use). This requires new data collection and analyses (including research drilling, modern geohydrologic investigations, and development of detailed computer groundwater models that simulate the supply and demand components separately), implementation of new facilities (including spreading and injection facilities for artificial recharge), and establishment of new institutions and policies that help to sustain the water resources and better manage regional development.

California↗

USGS2014

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in the Central Oklahoma (Garber-Wellington) Aquifer, Oklahoma, 1987 to 2009, and simulation of available water in storage, 2010–2059

The Central Oklahoma (Garber-Wellington) aquifer underlies about 3,000 square miles of central Oklahoma. The study area for this investigation was the extent of the Central Oklahoma aquifer. Water from the Central Oklahoma aquifer is used for public, industrial, commercial, agricultural, and domestic supply. With the exception of Oklahoma City, all of the major communities in central Oklahoma rely either solely or partly on groundwater from this aquifer. The Oklahoma City metropolitan area, incorporating parts of Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, and Oklahoma Counties, has a population of approximately 1.2 million people. As areas are developed for groundwater supply, increased groundwater withdrawals may result in decreases in long-term aquifer storage. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, investigated the hydrogeology and simulated groundwater flow in the aquifer using a numerical groundwater-flow model. The purpose of this report is to describe an investigation of the Central Oklahoma aquifer that included analyses of the hydrogeology, hydrogeologic framework of the aquifer, and construction of a numerical groundwater-flow model. The groundwater-flow model was used to simulate groundwater levels and for water-budget analysis. A calibrated transient model was used to evaluate changes in groundwater storage associated with increased future water demands.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2002

The High Plains Aquifer, USA: Groundwater development and sustainability

The High Plains Aquifer, located in the United States, is one of the largest freshwater aquifers in the world and is threatened by continued decline in water levels and deteriorating water quality. Understanding the physical and cultural features of this area is essential to assessing the factors that affect this groundwater resource. About 27% of the irrigated land in the United States overlies this aquifer, which yields about 30% of the nation's groundwater used for irrigation of crops including wheat, corn, sorghum, cotton and alfalfa. In addition, the aquifer provides drinking water to 82% of the 2.3 million people who live within the aquifer boundary. The High Plains Aquifer has been significantly impacted by human activities. Groundwater withdrawals from the aquifer exceed recharge in many areas, resulting in substantial declines in groundwater level. Residents once believed that the aquifer was an unlimited resource of high-quality water, but they now face the prospect that much of the water may be gone in the near future. Also, agricultural chemicals are affecting the groundwater quality. Increasing concentrations of nitrate and salinity can first impair the use of the water for public supply and then affect its suitability for irrigation. A variety of technical and institutional measures are currently being planned and implemented across the aquifer area in an attempt to sustain this groundwater resource for future generations. However, because groundwater withdrawals remain high and water quality impairments are becoming more commonplace, the sustainability of the High Plains Aquifer is uncertain.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗

USGS2013

A conceptual hydrogeologic model for the hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, and groundwater-flow system of the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

The Edwards-Trinity aquifer is a vital groundwater resource for agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses in the Trans-Pecos region of west Texas. A conceptual model of the hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, and groundwater-flow system in the 4,700 square-mile study area was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Middle Pecos Groundwater Conservation District, Pecos County, City of Fort Stockton, Brewster County, and Pecos County Water Control and Improvement District No. 1. The model was developed to gain a better understanding of the groundwater system and to establish a scientific foundation for resource-management decisions. Data and information were collected or obtained from various sources to develop the model. Lithologic information obtained from well reports and geophysical data were used to describe the hydrostratigraphy and structural features of the groundwater system, and aquifer-test data were used to estimate aquifer hydraulic properties. Groundwater-quality data were used to evaluate groundwater-flow paths, water and rock interaction, aquifer interaction, and the mixing of water from different sources. Groundwater-level data also were used to evaluate aquifer interaction as well as to develop a potentiometric-surface map, delineate regional groundwater divides, and describe regional groundwater-flow paths. Several previous studies have been done to compile or collect physical and chemical data, describe the hydrogeologic processes, and develop conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer in the Trans-Pecos region. Documented methods were used to compile and collect groundwater, surface-water, geochemical, geophysical, and geologic information that subsequently were used to develop this conceptual model.

Texas↗

USGS2020

Temporal and spatial variability of water quality in the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer recharge zone, Texas, with an emphasis on periods of groundwater recharge, September 2017–July 2019

Ongoing urbanization on the Edwards aquifer recharge zone in the greater San Antonio area raises concern about the potential adverse effects on the public water supply from development. To address this concern, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of San Antonio, studied patterns of temporal and spatial changes in water quality at selected surface-water and groundwater sites in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone, with an emphasis on changes during periods of groundwater recharge. Water-quality characteristics were continuously monitored and discrete water samples were collected at two sets of paired surface-water (stream) and groundwater (well) sites during a 2-year period (2017–19) that included relatively dry conditions and a large recharge event in September 2018 when as much as 16 inches of rain fell in parts of the study area. Continuous monitoring of water-level altitude, specific conductance, and concentrations of nitrate in two wells completed in the Edwards aquifer provided high-resolution data showing detailed changes in water quality across a broad range of hydrologic conditions. Water levels in the wells responded rapidly (within hours to days) to recharge from both small and large rainfall and runoff events; changes in groundwater quality as a consequence of the influx of surface-derived recharge were indicated by changes in values of the monitored characteristics. A broad range in measured values of the stable isotopes of water expressed as delta deuterium and delta oxygen-18 in the water samples collected from two streams (Salado and West Elm Creeks), in comparison to the tight clustering of the values of these isotopes in groundwater samples, indicates that source waters (surface waters) of widely varying chemical characteristics become homogenized within the aquifer system. Concentrations of major ions, trace ions, and nutrient concentrations in stormwater runoff indicate a combination of land-derived and rainfall-derived constituents. The distribution of concentrations of nitrogen species (nitrite, nitrate, and nitrogen in ammonia) among sampling sites transitions from a more variable distribution in stormwater runoff to a more uniform distribution in groundwater in which the dominant form is nitrate. Differences in nitrate isotopic composition and concentration in groundwater across the study area are likely controlled by the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic nitrogen (with the anthropogenic nitrogen component including a wastewater source) and by the process of nitrification. Among all measured constituents, pesticides detected in discrete stormwater-runoff samples provided the clearest indication that urbanization was adversely affecting water quality; specifically, the more urbanized surface-water site had a greater number of detections and greater variety of detected pesticides. Though temporal variability in the numbers and types of pesticides was evident, the overall proportion of pesticides was dominated by triazine herbicides including atrazine, atrazine degradates, and simazine. The observed hydrologic responses to rainfall and corresponding changes in water quality in wells are thought to result from the direct hydrologic connectivity of surface water and unconfined groundwater; however, patterns of groundwater-quality change indicate mixing from multiple sources such as ambient groundwater, recent surface-derived recharge, and possibly inflow from other aquifers. Therefore, understanding the connection between urbanization and groundwater quality cannot be inferred from the input of stormwater runoff alone as changes related to local and regional hydrologic conditions also need to be considered. It should be noted that a single study comparing the results from two site pairs is not able to support definitive conclusions about the full effect of urbanization on surface water/groundwater quality; however, this study does provide useful insights about the spatial and temporal variability of both stormwater runoff and unconfined groundwater that are consistent with expectations based on the current conceptual model that depicts the Edwards aquifer surface-water/groundwater system as a single water resource.

Texas↗

USGS2024

Water-quality indicators of surface-water-influenced groundwater supplies in the Ohio River alluvial aquifer of West Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources, studied surface-water-influenced groundwater supplies in the Ohio River alluvial aquifer of West Virginia for the purpose of understanding the influence of surface water on groundwater chemistry. Public groundwater supplies obtained from these aquifers receive substantial recharge from surface-water sources and are highly susceptible to degradation from water-soluble contaminants. Water samples were collected from 4 sites in the Ohio River and 23 groundwater wells in the alluvial aquifer from June 2019 to January 2020. Surface-water influence was assessed through characterization of groundwater quality, determination of recharge sources, estimation of groundwater age, and estimation of the fraction of Ohio River water entering groundwater pumped by wells in the alluvial aquifers. Hydrogeochemical processes controlling solute concentrations in the Ohio River alluvial aquifer were evaluated with multivariate statistical analysis and identified to be primarily controlled by redox processes, input from sources of salinity, and carbonate dissolution. Meteoric recharge from the Ohio River and precipitation on the alluvium are the main sources of water entering the aquifer. The age of groundwater in the system was determined to be primarily from a modern source. Groundwater samples from every well included in this study had detections for at least one geochemical indicator of surface-water influence, and every well was determined to be susceptible and vulnerable to contamination from surface sources. Results from binary mixing models and inverse geochemical models showed that sulfate, silica, and bicarbonate concentrations predict the fraction of Ohio River water entering alluvial wells for preliminary determination of surface-water influence when compared to fractions predicted using a numerical groundwater-flow model. In the absence of extensive analytes and geochemical or groundwater modeling capabilities, preliminary assessment of the fraction of Ohio River water entering groundwater wells in the Ohio River alluvium can be estimated for most sites using a linear relation between the equivalent ratio of bicarbonate to sulfate and the fraction of water computed by the average of the three geochemical models presented in this report. This approximation of the fraction of Ohio River water, coupled with information on the hydrogeological framework and geochemical indicators of surface-water influence, may be sufficient for preliminary assessment of surface-water influence in the absence of more detailed site information or reaction-transport models.

West Virginia↗

USGS2014

Groundwater-quality data in the Santa Cruz, San Gabriel, and Peninsular Ranges Hard Rock Aquifers study unit, 2011-2012: results from the California GAMA program

Groundwater quality in the 2,400-square-mile Santa Cruz, San Gabriel, and Peninsular Ranges Hard Rock Aquifers (Hard Rock) study unit was investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from March 2011 through March 2012, as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program’s Priority Basin Project (PBP). The GAMA-PBP was developed in response to the California Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted in collaboration with the SWRCB and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The Hard Rock study unit was the 35th study unit to be sampled as part of the GAMA-PBP. The GAMA Hard Rock study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated-groundwater quality in the primary aquifer system and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of untreated-groundwater quality throughout California. The primary aquifer system is defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforation intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) water-quality-monitoring database for the Hard Rock study unit. Groundwater quality in the primary aquifer system may differ from the quality in the shallower or deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. In the Hard Rock study unit, groundwater samples were collected from 112 wells and springs in 3 study areas (the Santa Cruz, the San Gabriel, and the Peninsular Ranges) in San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Benito, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Eighty-three wells and 11 springs were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study unit (grid wells), and 15 wells and 3 springs were selected to aid in evaluation of water-quality issues (understanding wells). The groundwater samples were analyzed for field water-quality indicators; organic constituents; one constituent of special interest (perchlorate); naturally occurring inorganic constituents; and radioactive constituents. Naturally occurring isotopes and dissolved noble gases were also measured to help identify the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. In total, 209 constituents and water-quality indicators were measured. Three types of quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and matrix spikes) were collected at approximately 10 percent of the wells in the Hard Rock study unit, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. Blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination from sample collection procedures was not a significant source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Replicate samples generally were within the limits of acceptable analytical reproducibility. Median matrix-spike recoveries were within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent) for approximately 92 percent of the compounds. This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers; after withdrawal from the ground, untreated groundwater typically is treated, disinfected, and (or) blended with other waters to maintain water quality. Regulatory benchmarks apply to water that is served to the consumer, not to untreated groundwater. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the untreated groundwater were compared with regulatory and nonregulatory health-based benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and CDPH, and to nonregulatory benchmarks established for aesthetic concerns by the CDPH. Comparisons between data collected for this study and benchmarks for drinking water are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with those benchmarks. All organic constituents and most inorganic constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the 112 wells in the Hard Rock study unit were detected at concentrations less than drinking-water benchmarks. Of the 149 organic and special-interest constituents, 34 were detected in groundwater samples; concentrations of all detected constituents were less than regulatory and nonregulatory health-based benchmarks. In total, VOCs were detected in 44 percent of the 94 grid wells sampled, pesticides and pesticide degradates were detected in 18 percent, and perchlorate was detected in 48 percent. Trace elements, nutrients, major and minor ions, and radioactive constituents were sampled for at 94 grid wells; most detected concentrations were less than health-based benchmarks. Exceptions in the Hard Rock study unit grid wells include 3 detections of arsenic greater than the USEPA maximum contaminant level (MCL-US) of 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L), 3 detections of boron greater than the CDPH notification level (NL-CA) of 1,000 μg/L, 2 detections of molybdenum greater than the USEPA lifetime health advisory level (HAL-US) of 40 μg/L, 2 detections of nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) greater than the MCL-US of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), 3 detections of fluoride greater than the CDPH maximum contaminant level (MCL-CA) of 2 mg/L, 5 detections of radon-222 greater than the proposed MCL-US of 4,000 picocuries per liter (pCi/L), and 11 detections of unadjusted gross alpha radioactivity greater than the MCL-US of 15 pCi/L. Seven of the 11 samples having unadjusted gross alpha activity greater than the MCL-US also had total uranium concentrations greater than the MCL-US of 30 μg/L and (or) uranium activities greater than the MCL-CA of 20 pCi/L. Results for constituents with nonregulatory benchmarks set for aesthetic concerns showed that iron concentrations greater than the CDPH secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL-CA) of 300 μg/L were detected in samples from 19 grid wells. Manganese concentrations greater than the SMCL-CA of 50 μg/L were detected in 27 grid wells. Chloride was detected at a concentration greater than the SMCL-CA upper benchmark of 500 mg/L in one grid well. TDS concentrations in three grid wells were greater than the SMCL-CA upper benchmark of 1,000 mg/L.

California↗

USGS2016

Preliminary investigation of groundwater flow and trichloroethene transport in the Surficial Aquifer System, Naval Industrial Reserve Ordnance Plant, Fridley, Minnesota

Industrial practices at the Naval Industrial Reserve Ordnance Plant, in Fridley, Minnesota, caused soil and groundwater contamination. Some volatile organic compounds from the plant might have discharged to the Mississippi River, forced by the natural hydraulic gradient in the surficial aquifer system. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency included the Naval Industrial Reserve Ordnance Plant on the Superfund National Priorities List in 1989. This report describes a preliminary characterization of trichloroethene transport in the surficial and Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems at the Naval Industrial Reserve Ordnance Plant. The characterization first involved simulation of 2001 conditions using a model, followed by an application of this 2001 simulator to 2011 conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Navy, used a steady-state, uniform-density groundwater flow model to simulate measured potentiometric heads in aquifer systems on August 20, 2001, and a single-phase, conservative, non-reactive, miscible transport model to simulate trichloroethene concentrations in aquifer systems measured in 2001. The U.S. Department of the Navy furnished trichloroethene source areas and trichloroethene source area concentrations to the U.S. Geological Survey for this model simulation. Furnished delineations were postulated and informed by data collected from 1995 to 2011. The groundwater flow simulation of August 20, 2001, was superior to the trichloroethene transport simulation at replicating measurements; simulated potentiometric heads matched 90 percent of measured potentiometric heads on August 20, within 2 feet at selected locations whereas simulated trichloroethene concentration contours of 3, 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 micrograms per liter (µg/L) correctly bounded 52 percent of measured concentrations in 2001 at selected locations. The degree to which the simulated trichloroethene plume does not match trichloroethene measurements in the surficial aquifer system during the 2001 simulation may suggest that furnished trichloroethene source areas and trichloroethene source area concentrations did not accurately represent all trichloroethene sources in the hydrogeologic system. During the model simulation of 2001, trichloroethene discharged to the Mississippi River. A simulated 900-foot-long zone of benthic trichloroethene discharge flux existed in the shallow flow zone, across which simulated trichloroethene discharged from the surficial aquifer system to the Mississippi River at simulated trichloroethene concentrations that ranged from 3 µg/L to more than 100 µg/L. The Mississippi River was not sampled for volatile organic compounds in Fridley, Minn., from 1999 to 2016 (the publication of this report). Trichloroethene concentrations were measured in wells close to the Mississippi River in the surficial aquifer system on the downgradient side of the Naval Industrial Reserve Ordnance Plant groundwater flow field; for example, at well MS–43 in the shallow flow zone of the surficial aquifer system 280 feet east of the Mississippi River between December 1999 and August 2012, trichloroethene concentrations ranged from 130 to 220 µg/L. The 220-µg/L maximum concentration was reached in March 2003 and October 2006. The August 2012 concentration was 140 µg/L. The August 20, 2001, groundwater flow model simulator and the 2001 trichloroethene transport simulator were applied to a groundwater extraction and treatment system that existed in 2011. Furnished trichloroethene source areas and concentrations in the 2001 simulator were replaced with different, furnished, hypothetical source areas and concentrations. Forcing in 2001 was replaced with forcing in 2011. No trichloroethene concentrations greater than 3 µg/L were simulated as discharging to the Mississippi River during applications of the 2001 simulator to the 2011 groundwater extraction and treatment system. These applications were not intended to represent historical conditions. Differences between furnished and actual trichloroethene sources may explain differences between measurements and simulation results for the 2001 trichloroethene transport simulator. Causes of differences between furnished and actual trichloroethene sources may cause differences between hypothetical application results and the performance of the actual U.S. Department of the Navy groundwater extraction and treatment system at the Naval Industrial Reserve Ordnance Plant. Other limitations may also cause differences between application results and performance.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Numerical modeling of groundwater flow in the crystalline-rock aquifer in the vicinity of the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire

In 2010, tetrachloroethylene (PCE), a chlorinated volatile organic compound, was detected in groundwater from deep (more than 300 feet below land surface) fractures in monitoring wells tapping a crystalline-rock aquifer. The aquifer underlies the Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer, a high water-producing aquifer, and the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site in Milford, New Hampshire. Between 30 and 40 residential water-supply wells are near (0.25 mile north of) the PCE-contaminated monitoring wells. Some of the residential water-supply wells are likely installed in similar rock types and formations as those of the monitoring wells installed as part of the Superfund site. As of 2020, periodic sampling by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (cooperative partners for this study) since 1996 had not detected PCE in groundwater from the residential water-supply wells. Nevertheless, understanding the vulnerability of the residential water wells to capture PCE contaminated groundwater was of concern. A numerical groundwater flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess groundwater flow and advective transport of PCE-contaminated groundwater in the crystalline-rock aquifer of the Milford area. The model (called the area-wide model) encompasses a 26.5-square mile area to allow for more accurate computation of water fluxes near the PCE-contaminated monitoring wells and the residential water wells. Simulations with the area-wide model show that, with the 2016 configuration of residential wells, capture of PCE by the residential water wells appears unlikely for hydrologic conditions typical of 2010 based on steady-state, advective transport modeling. However, simulations also show that adding residential water wells to the north of the PCE-contaminated monitoring wells could affect the transport of PCE. Groundwater withdrawals at other adjacent wells in the overlying Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer affect advective transport in the crystalline-rock aquifer. Therefore, the potential for future changes in withdrawals in the area, as well as changes in hydrologic conditions, including groundwater recharge and streamflow amounts, should be considered in the remedial assessment process. The development of the area-wide model and linkages established by this study with previously developed Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer transport models will help facilitate the development of remedial strategies for this Superfund site.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2018

Geochemistry of groundwater in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory and vicinity, eastern Idaho

Nuclear research activities at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in eastern Idaho produced radiochemical and chemical wastes that were discharged to the subsurface, resulting in detectable concentrations of some waste constituents in the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer. These waste constituents may pose risks to the water quality of the aquifer. In order to understand these risks to water quality the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the DOE, conducted a study of groundwater geochemistry to improve the understanding of hydrologic and chemical processes in the ESRP aquifer at and near the INL and to understand how these processes affect waste constituents in the aquifer. Geochemistry data were used to identify sources of recharge, mixing of water, and directions of groundwater flow in the ESRP aquifer at the INL. The geochemistry data were analyzed from 167 sample sites at and near the INL. The sites included 150 groundwater, 13 surface-water, and 4 geothermal-water sites. The data were collected between 1952 and 2012, although most data collected at the INL were collected from 1989 to 1996. Water samples were analyzed for all or most of the following: field parameters, dissolved gases, major ions, dissolved metals, isotope ratios, and environmental tracers. Sources of recharge identified at the INL were regional groundwater, groundwater from the Little Lost River (LLR) and Birch Creek (BC) valleys, groundwater from the Lost River Range, geothermal water, and surface water from the Big Lost River (BLR), LLR, and BC. Recharge from the BLR that may have occurred during the last glacial epoch, or paleorecharge, may be present at several wells in the southwestern part of the INL. Mixing of water at the INL primarily included mixing of surface water with groundwater from the tributary valleys and mixing of geothermal water with regional groundwater. Additionally, a zone of mixing between tributary valley water and regional groundwater, trending southwesterly, extended from near the northeastern boundary of the INL to the southern boundary of the INL. Groundwater flow directions for regional groundwater were southwesterly, and flow directions for tributary groundwater were southeasterly upon entering the ESRP, but eventually began to flow southwesterly in a direction parallel with regional groundwater. Several discrepancies were identified from comparison of sources of recharge determined from geochemistry data and backward particle tracking with a groundwater-flow model. Some discrepancies observed in the particle tracking results included representation of recharge from BC near the north INL boundary, groundwater from the BC valley not extending far enough south, regional groundwater that extends too far west in the southern part of the INL, and no representation of recharge from geothermal water in model layer 1 or recharge from the BLR in the southwestern part of the INL.

Idaho↗

USGS2004

Groundwater mining of bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin - Past, present, and future

The Denver Basin bedrock aquifer system is an important source of water for municipal and agricultural uses in the Denver and Colorado Springs metropolitan areas. The Denver area is one of the fastest growing areas in the United States with a population of 1.2 million in 1960 that has increased to over 2.4 million by 2000. This rapid population growth has produced a corresponding increase in demand for potable water. Historically, the Denver area has relied on surface water, however, in the past 10 years new housing and recreation developments have begun to rely on groundwater from the bedrock aquifers as the surface water is fully appropriated and in short supply. The Denver Basin bedrock aquifer system consists of Tertiary and Cretaceous age sedimentary rocks known as the Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe and Laramie-Fox Hills Aquifers. The number of bedrock wells has increased from 12,000 in 1985 to 33,700 in 2001 and the withdrawal of groundwater has caused water level declines of 76 m. Water level declines for the past 10 years have ranged from 3 to 12 m per year. The groundwater supplies were once thought to last 100 years but there is concern that the groundwater supplies may be essentially depleted in 10 to 15 years in areas on the west side of the basin. Extensive development of the aquifer system has occurred in the last 25 years especially near the center of the basin in Douglas and El Paso Counties where rapid urban growth continues and surface water is lacking. Groundwater is being mined from the aquifer system because the discharge by wells exceeds the rate of recharge. Concern is mounting that increased groundwater withdrawal will cause water level declines, increased costs to withdraw groundwater, reduced well yield, and reduced groundwater storage. As the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource is in doubt, water managers believe that the life of the Denver Basin aquifers can be extended with artificial recharge, water reuse, restrictions on lawn watering, well permit restrictions and conservation measures.

Environmental Geology↗

USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Long Island, New York regional aquifer system for pumping and recharge conditions from 1900 to 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure. The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data. Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions. Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix. Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions. Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent. The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

New York↗