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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2011

Integration of paleoseismic data from multiple sites to develop an objective earthquake chronology: Application to the Weber segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

We present a method to evaluate and integrate paleoseismic data from multiple sites into a single, objective measure of earthquake timing and recurrence on discrete segments of active faults. We apply this method to the Weber segment (WS) of the Wasatch fault zone using data from four fault-trench studies completed between 1981 and 2009. After systematically reevaluating the stratigraphic and chronologic data from each trench site, we constructed time-stratigraphic OxCal models that yield site probability density functions (PDFs) of the times of individual earthquakes. We next qualitatively correlated the site PDFs into a segment-wide earthquake chronology, which is supported by overlapping site PDFs, large per-event displacements, and prominent segment boundaries. For each segment-wide earthquake, we computed the product of the site PDF probabilities in common time bins, which emphasizes the overlap in the site earthquake times, and gives more weight to the narrowest, best-defined PDFs. The product method yields smaller earthquake-timing uncertainties compared to taking the mean of the site PDFs, but is best suited to earthquakes constrained by broad, overlapping site PDFs. We calculated segment-wide earthquake recurrence intervals and uncertainties using a Monte Carlo model. Five surface-faulting earthquakes occurred on the WS at about 5.9, 4.5, 3.1, 1.1, and 0.6 ka. With the exception of the 1.1-ka event, we used the product method to define the earthquake times. The revised WS chronology yields a mean recurrence interval of 1.3 kyr (0.7–1.9-kyr estimated two-sigma [2δ] range based on interevent recurrence). These data help clarify the paleoearthquake history of the WS, including the important question of the timing and rupture extent of the most recent earthquake, and are essential to the improvement of earthquake-probability assessments for the Wasatch Front region.

Utah↗
USGS2026

Stress states on the eve of past earthquakes inform earthquake rupture through fault complexity along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults

Estimating the evolving state of stress along active fault systems can provide insight into the conditions that generated past ground‐rupturing earthquakes and influenced their ability to propagate through areas of geometric complexity, such as fault branches and stepovers. We use quasi‐static forward numerical models that incorporate the 3D complex configuration of active faults in southern California to estimate shear tractions on the geometrically complex southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults from 1000 to 1900 C.E. These tractions include interseismic accumulation of traction due to tectonic loading, viscoelastic relaxation of shear stress within the upper crust between earthquakes, and effects of other earthquakes on the fault network. We simulate ground‐rupturing earthquakes based on the along‐strike earthquake extents modeled by Scharer and Yule (2020) , assuming that stress drop is complete in each earthquake. We use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate uncertainty in evolving shear tractions due to uncertainties in earthquake timing and in upper‐crustal viscosity. Pre‐earthquake shear tractions typically do not exceed ∼2 MPa. Although ruptures with length <200 km have pre‐earthquake shear tractions that range from near zero to ∼1.75 MPa, these tractions are not less than ∼0.4 MPa for earthquakes with rupture length >200 km. Earthquakes with long (>200 km) ruptures occur only in the single‐stranded part of the system, whereas those with short (<125 km) rupture length and high pre‐earthquake shear traction occur near fault stepovers and branches. This suggests that high accumulated shear traction encourages longer rupture propagation, but may not be sufficient to overcome geometric complexities. This modeling approach informs our understanding of rupture propagation and provides estimates of fault shear tractions that are unavailable from direct measurements.

Callifornia↗
USGS2004

Geophysical data reveal the crustal structure of the Alaska range orogen within the aftershock zone of the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

Geophysical information, including deep-crustal seismic reflection, magnetotelluric ( mt ), gravity, and magnetic data, cross the aftershock zone of the 3 November 2002 M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. These data and aftershock seismicity, jointly interpreted, reveal the crustal structure of the right-lateral-slip Denali fault and the eastern Alaska Range orogen, as well as the relationship between this structure and seismicity. North of the Denali fault, strong seismic reflections from within the Alaska Range orogen show features that dip as steeply as 25° north and extend downward to depths between 20 and 25 km. These reflections reveal crustal structures, probably ductile shear zones, that most likely formed during the Late Cretaceous, but these structures appear to be inactive, having produced little seismicity during the past 20 years. Furthermore, seismic reflections mainly dip north, whereas alignments in aftershock hypocenters dip south. The Denali fault is nonreflective, but modeling of mt , gravity, and magnetic data suggests that the Denali fault dips steeply to vertically. However, in an alternative structural model, the Denali fault is defined by one of the reflection bands that dips to the north and flattens into the middle crust of the Alaska Range orogen. Modeling of mt data indicates a rock body, having low electrical resistivity (>10 Ω·m), that lies mainly at depths greater than 10 km, directly beneath aftershocks of the Denali fault earthquake. The maximum depth of aftershocks along the Denali fault is 10 km. This shallow depth may arise from a higher-than-normal geothermal gradient. Alternatively, the low electrical resistivity of deep rocks along the Denali fault may be associated with fluids that have weakened the lower crust and helped determine the depth extent of the aftershock zone.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Along-strike variations in fault frictional properties along the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, California from joint earthquake and low-frequency earthquake relocations

Recent observations of low‐frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and tectonic tremor along the Parkfield&ndash;Cholame segment of the San Andreas fault suggest slow‐slip earthquakes occur in a transition zone between the shallow fault, which accommodates slip by a combination of aseismic creep and earthquakes (<15&thinsp;&thinsp;km depth), and the deep fault, which accommodates slip by stable sliding (>35&thinsp;&thinsp;km depth). However, the spatial relationship between shallow earthquakes and LFEs remains unclear. Here, we present precise relocations of 34 earthquakes and 34 LFEs recorded during a temporary deployment of 13 broadband seismic stations from May 2010 to July 2011. We use the temporary array waveform data, along with data from permanent seismic stations and a new high‐resolution 3D velocity model, to illuminate the fine‐scale details of the seismicity distribution near Cholame and the relation to the distribution of LFEs. The depth of the boundary between earthquakes and LFE hypocenters changes along strike and roughly follows the 350&deg;C isotherm, suggesting frictional behavior may be, in part, thermally controlled. We observe no overlap in the depth of earthquakes and LFEs, with an &sim;5&thinsp;&thinsp;km separation between the deepest earthquakes and shallowest LFEs. In addition, clustering in the relocated seismicity near the 2004 M w 6.0 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and near the northern boundary of the 1857 M w 7.8 Fort Tejon rupture may highlight areas of frictional heterogeneities on the fault where earthquakes tend to nucleate.

California↗
USGS2004

Surface rupture on the Denali fault interpreted from tree damage during the 1912 Delta River Mw 7.2–7.4 earthquake: Implications for the 2002 Denali fault earthquake slip distribution

During the 3 November 2002 Denali fault earthquake, surface rupture propagated through a small, old-growth forest in the Delta River valley and damaged many trees growing on the fault. Damage was principally the result of fault offset of tree roots and tilting of trees. Some trees were split by surface faults that intersected the base of their trunks or large taproots. A few trees appear to have been damaged by strong shaking. Many of the older trees damaged in 2002 were deformed and scarred. Some of these scarred trees exhibit past damage indicative of surface faulting and have abrupt changes in their annual ring patterns that coincide with the past damage. Annual ring counts from several of these older scarred trees indicate the damage was caused by surface rupture on the Denali fault in 1912. The only earthquake of sufficient magnitude that fits the requirements for timing and general location as recorded by the damaged trees is a widely felt Ms 7.2-7.4 earthquake on 6 July 1912 informally referred to as the 1912 Delta River earthquake. Seismologic data and intensity distribution for the 1912 Delta River earthquake indicate that its epicenter was within 60-90 km of the Delta River and that rupture probably propagated toward the west. Inferred fault length, displacement, and rupture direction suggest the 1912 rupture was probably largely coincident with the western, lower slip section of the 2002 rupture.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Substantial upper plate faulting above a shallow subduction megathrust earthquake: Mechanics and implications of the surface faulting during the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake

The 2016 moment magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake occurred at the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone where the upper plate above the shallow megathrust is exposed sub-aerially. As a result, the substantial co-seismic deformation in the upper plate above the megathrust rupture was observed geologically and geodetically. We explore the relationship between this surface faulting and the subduction megathrust rupture and find that the greatest upper plate fault slip occurred coincident (in time and location) with the megathrust rupture. Models of Coulomb stress change demonstrate that these surface faults become positively loaded as the upper plate rebounds during the megathrust event, favoring fault slip. In addition, during the megathrust rupture these faults terminate against an uncoupled subduction plate interface. We simulate the effects of decoupling at the base of these faults and find that very large fault slip is an expected consequence of this decoupling, allowing near-complete strain release. In contrast, typical strike-slip faults, pinned at their base, would have lower amounts of fault slip. These two conditions—increased Coulomb stress and basal decoupling—combine to produce the extreme co-seismic upper plate faulting observed above the shallow Kaikoura megathrust earthquake. Similar conditions occur in other global subduction zones, but in most subduction zones the region above the coupled megathrust is underwater and poorly observed. Our analysis of the Kaikoura earthquake indicates a need to reevaluate patterns of strain accumulation and release in these regions, rather than assuming simple models of elastic rebound.

Tectonics↗
USGS2015

The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude&ndash;rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey &ldquo;Did You Feel It?&rdquo; (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3&ndash;6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3&ndash;6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

California↗
USGS2011

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and tsunami excitation

The moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck offshore the Mentawai islands in western Indonesia on 25 October 2010 created a locally large tsunami that caused more than 400 human causalities. We identify this earthquake as a rare slow‐source tsunami earthquake based on: 1) disproportionately large tsunami waves; 2) excessive rupture duration near 125 s; 3) predominantly shallow, near‐trench slip determined through finite‐fault modeling; and 4) deficiencies in energy‐to‐moment and energy‐to‐duration‐cubed ratios, the latter in near‐real time. We detail the real‐time solutions that identified the slow‐nature of this event, and evaluate how regional reductions in crustal rigidity along the shallow trench as determined by reduced rupture velocity contributed to increased slip, causing the 5–9 m local tsunami runup and observed transoceanic wave heights observed 1600 km to the southeast.

Mentawai Islands↗
USGS2006

Recordings of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the General Earthquake Observation System array: Implications for earthquake precursors, fault rupture, and coseismic strain changes

The 2004 Parkfield earthquake generated a unique set of near-field, high-resolution colocated measurements of acceleration, volumetric strain, and velocity at 11 stations in the General Earthquake Observation System ( geos ) array. The recordings indicate no precursory strain or displacement was discernable at sensitivities of 10 −11 strain and 5 × 10 −8 m 25 sec prior to the earthquake at distances of 0.5 to 12 km of fault rupture. Coherent fault-parallel and fault-normal displacement pulses, observed along the fault north of the epicenter, are consistent with model predictions for “fling,” directivity, and displacement for right-lateral, strike-slip fault rupture. The fault-parallel and fault-normal pulses imply apparent rupture velocities of 2.86 ± 0.15 and 3.03 ± 0.24 km/sec, respectively. Unprecedented high-resolution volumetric-strain recordings on opposite sides of the fault show that dynamic strains radiated from ruptured segments of the fault are more than an order of magnitude larger than final coseismic strain offsets associated with fault slip, suggesting that dynamic radiated strain may have contributed to the triggering of failure on unruptured segments. High-resolution recordings show that coseismic strain offsets occur abruptly over time intervals of less than 10 sec near the time of arrival of the dominant radiated fault-parallel and fault-normal displacements. Subsequent measurements show that the strain offsets continue to increase by as much as 69% in 5 min and 300% in 24 hr over that measured during initial fault slip at depth. Estimates of local material parameters from simultaneous measurements of volumetric strain and acceleration confirm seismic calibration factors previously measurable in situ only at tidal periods.

California↗
USGS2008

Earthquakes generated from bedding plane-parallel reverse faults above an active wedge thrust, Seattle fault zone

A key question in earthquake hazard analysis is whether individual faults within fault zones represent independent seismic sources. For the Seattle fault zone, an upper plate structure within the Cascadia convergent margin, evaluating seismic hazard requires understanding how north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults, which generate late Holocene fault scarps, interact with the north-vergent master-ramp thrust and overlying backthrust of the fault zone. A regional uplift at A.D. 900–930 involved an earthquake that nucleated at depth and included slip on both the master-ramp thrust and the back-thrust. This earthquake also included slip on some of the <6-km-deep north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults. At locales where the north-side-up reverse faults intersect the Puget Sound coast, an earthquake a few centuries earlier than the A.D. 900–930 regional uplift only uplifted areas within hundreds of meters north of the reverse faults. We infer that the bedding-plane reverse faults are seismogenic because shore platforms near the reverse faults have been abruptly uplifted during earthquakes when other shorelines in the Seattle fault zone were unaffected. Faults of the Seattle fault zone therefore can both produce regional uplift earthquakes, with or without surface displacement on the reverse faults, and produce earthquakes that rupture the bedding-plane reverse faults causing fault scarps and uplift localized to hundreds of meters north of these faults. This latter type of earthquake has occurred at least twice and perhaps three times in the late Holocene, and all these earthquakes preceded the regional coseismic uplift of A.D. 900–930. To account for the paleoseismic observations, we propose that the Seattle fault zone is a wedge thrust, with the leading edge being a fault-bend, wedge thrust fold. The active axial surface of the wedge thrust fold is pinned at the tip of the wedge, and a steeply north-dipping sequence of Tertiary sediment forms the south limb of the wedge thrust fold. Some of these steeply north-dipping, bedding-plane surfaces are seismogenic reverse faults that produce scarps. Earthquakes on the wedge thrust produce the regional coseismic uplift events, and earthquakes within the fault-bend fold cause the local uplift earthquakes. Thus, bedding-plane faults can rupture during earthquakes when the wedge thrust does not rupture but instead continues to accumulate seismic energy.

Washington↗
USGS2004

Apparent stress, fault maturity and seismic hazard for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones

The behavior of apparent stress for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones is derived by examining the apparent stress (?? a = ??Es/Mo, where E s is radiated energy and Mo is seismic moment) of all globally distributed shallow (depth, ?? < 70 km) earthquakes with normal-fault mechanisms that occurred in or near subduction zones between 1987 and 2001 for which Es and M o are available. Accurately determined hypocentres from the Engdahl-Hilst-Buland (EHB) catalogue establish the fine detail of the Wadati-Benioff zone. In many cases, we can relate trends in apparent stress to specific features within the subduction zone and compare these with trends for interplate-thrust earthquakes in the same subduction zones. There are two depth ranges over which ??a, for normal-fault earthquakes shows maxima. The highest and most anomalous values of ??a are found in the deeper depth range from 35 to 70 km. The high-??a, events (up to 5 MPa) are characteristically intraslab and in proximity to zones of intense deformation such as a sharp slab bend or where opposing slabs collide. High-??a events in the region of the shallower maximum (hypocentres between 10-35 km and ??a > 1 MPa) are also generally intraslab, but occur where the lithosphere has just begun subduction beneath the overriding plate. They usually occur in cold slabs near trenches where the direction of plate motion across the trench is oblique to the trench axis, or where there are local contortions or geometrical complexities of the plate boundary. Lower ??a (< 1 MPa) is associated with events occurring at the outer rise (OR) complex (between the OR and the trench axis), as well as with intracrustal events occurring just landward of the trench. The average apparent stress of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes is considerably higher than the average apparent stress of interplate-thrust-fault earthquakes. In turn, the average ?? a of strike-slip earthquakes in intraoceanic environments is considerably higher than that of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes. The variation of average ??a with focal mechanism and tectonic regime suggests that the level of ?? a is related to fault maturity. Lower stress drops are needed to rupture mature faults such as those found at plate interfaces that have been smoothed by large cumulative displacements (from hundreds to thousands of kilometres). In contrast, immature faults, such as those on which intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes generally occur, are found in cold and intact lithosphere in which total fault displacement has been much less (from hundreds of metres to a few kilometres). Also, faults on which high ??a oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur are predominantly intraplate or at evolving ends of transforms. At subduction zones, earthquakes occurring on immature faults are likely to be more hazardous as they tend to generate higher amounts of radiated energy per unit of moment than earthquakes occurring on mature faults. We have identified earthquake pairs in which an interplate-thrust and an intraslab-normal earthquake occurred remarkably close in space and time. The intraslab-normal member of each pair radiated anomalously high amounts of energy compared to its thrust-fault counterpart. These intraslab earthquakes probably ruptured intact slab mantle and are dramatic examples in which Mc (an energy magnitude) is shown to be a far better estimate of the potential for earthquake damage than Mw. This discovery may help explain why loss of life as a result of intraslab earthquakes was greater in the 20th century in Latin America than the fatalities associated with interplate-thrust events that represented much higher total moment release. ?? 2004 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1989

Surface faulting along the Superstition Hills fault zone and nearby faults associated with the earthquakes of 24 November 1987

The M 6.2 Elmore Desert Ranch earthquake of 24 November 1987 was associated spatially and probably temporally with left-lateral surface rupture on many northeast-trending faults in and near the Superstition Hills in western Imperial Valley. Three curving discontinuous principal zones of rupture among these breaks extended northeastward from near the Superstition Hills fault zone as far as 9 km; the maximum observed surface slip, 12.5 cm, was on the northern of the three, the Elmore Ranch fault, at a point near the epicenter. Twelve hours after the Elmore Ranch earthquake, the M 6.6 Superstition Hills earthquake occurred near the northwest end of the right-lateral Superstition Hills fault zone. Surface rupture associated with the second event occurred along three strands of the zone, here named North and South strands of the Superstition Hills fault and the Wienert fault, for 27 km southeastward from the epicenter. In contrast to the left-lateral faulting, which remained unchanged throughout the period of investigation, the right-lateral movement on the Superstition hills fault zone continued to increase with time, a behavior that was similar to other recent historical surface ruptures on northwest-trending faults in the Imperial Valley region.

California↗
USGS2011

The regional structural setting of the 2008 Wells earthquake and Town Creek Flat Basin: implications for the Wells earthquake fault and adjacent structures

The 2008 Wells earthquake occurred on a northeast-striking, southeast-dipping fault that is clearly delineated by the aftershock swarm to a depth of 10-12 km below sea level. However, Cenozoic rocks and structures around Wells primarily record east-west extension along north- to north-northeast-striking, west-dipping normal faults that formed during the middle Miocene. These faults are responsible for the strong eastward tilt of most basins and ranges in the area, including the Town Creek Flat basin (the location of the earthquake) and the adjacent Snake Mountains and western Windermere Hills. These older west-dipping faults are locally overprinted by a younger generation of east-dipping, high-angle normal faults that formed as early as the late Miocene and have remained active into the Quaternary. The most prominent of these east-dipping faults is the set of en-échelon, north-striking faults that bounds the east sides of the Ruby Mountains, East Humboldt Range, and Clover Hill (about 5 km southwest of Wells). The northeastern-most of these faults, the Clover Hill fault, projects northward along strike toward the Snake Mountains and the approximately located surface projection of the Wells earthquake fault as defined by aftershock locations. The Clover Hill fault also projects toward a previously unrecognized, east-facing Quaternary fault scarp and line of springs that appear to mark a significant east-dipping normal fault along the western edge of Town Creek Flat. Both western and eastern projections may be northern continuations of the Clover Hill fault. The Wells earthquake occurred along this east-dipping fault system. Two possible alternatives to rupture of a northern continuation of the Clover Hill fault are that the earthquake fault (1) is antithetic to an active west-dipping fault or (2) reactivated a Mesozoic thrust fault that dips east as a result of tilting by the west-dipping faults along the west side of the Snake Mountains. Both alternatives are precluded by the depths of the earthquake and aftershocks, about 8 km and as deep as 12 km, respectively. These depths are below where an antithetic fault would intersect any main fault, and a tilted, formerly shallow and sub-horizontal thrust fault would not extend to depths of more than about 5–6 km. The east-dipping, high-angle, earthquake fault cuts older west-dipping faults rather than reactivating them, highlighting a change in the structural style of Basin and Range extension in this region from closely-spaced, west-dipping faults that rotated significantly during slip and accommodated large-magnitude extension, to widely-spaced, high-angle faults that accommodate much less total strain over a long time span.

Nevada↗
USGS1988

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for the past 5 years. Retardations with durations of 21 and 19 months also occurred at Shore Road before the 1974 and 1984 earthquakes of ML=5.2 and ML=6.2, respectively. Although creep retardation remains poorly understood, several possible explanations have been discussed previously. (1) Certain onsets of apparent creep retardation may be explained as abrupt terminations of afterslip generated from previous moderate-mainshock sequences. (2) Retardations may be related to significant decreases in the rate of seismic and/or aseismic slip occurring within or beneath the underlying seismogenic zone. Such decreases may be caused by changes in local conditions related to growth of asperities, strain hardening, or dilatancy, or perhaps by passage of stress-waves or other fluctuations in driving stresses. (3) Finally, creep rates may be lowered (or increased) by stresses imposed on the fault by seismic or aseismic slip on neighboring faults. In addition to causing creep-rate increases or retardations, such fault interactions occasionally may trigger earthquakes. Regardless of the actual mechanisms involved and the current lack of understanding of creep retardation, it appears that shallow fault creep is sensitive to local and regional effects that promote or accompany intermediate-term preparation stages leading to moderate earthquakes. A strategy for more complete monitoring of fault creep, wherever it is known to occur, therefore should be assigned a higher priority in our continuing efforts to test various hypotheses concerning the mechanical relations between seismic and aseismic slip. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS2003

Late Holocene earthquakes on the Toe Jam Hill fault, Seattle fault zone, Bainbridge Island, Washington

Five trenches across a Holocene fault scarp yield the first radiocarbon-measured earthquake recurrence intervals for a crustal fault in western Washington. The scarp, the first to be revealed by laser imagery, marks the Toe Jam Hill fault, a north-dipping backthrust to the Seattle fault. Folded and faulted strata, liquefaction features, and forest soil A horizons buried by hanging-wall-collapse colluvium record three, or possibly four, earthquakes between 2500 and 1000 yr ago. The most recent earthquake is probably the 1050-1020 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. (A.D. 900-930) earthquake that raised marine terraces and triggered a tsunami in Puget Sound. Vertical deformation estimated from stratigraphic and surface offsets at trench sites suggests late Holocene earthquake magnitudes near M7, corresponding to surface ruptures >36 km long. Deformation features recording poorly understood latest Pleistocene earthquakes suggest that they were smaller than late Holocene earthquakes. Postglacial earthquake recurrence intervals based on 97 radiocarbon ages, most on detrital charcoal, range from ???12,000 yr to as little as a century or less; corresponding fault-slip rates are 0.2 mm/yr for the past 16,000 yr and 2 mm/yr for the past 2500 yr. Because the Toe Jam Hill fault is a backthrust to the Seattle fault, it may not have ruptured during every earthquake on the Seattle fault. But the earthquake history of the Toe Jam Hill fault is at least a partial proxy for the history of the rest of the Seattle fault zone.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗
USGS1979

Earthquakes and fault creep on the northern San Andreas fault

At present there is an absence of both fault creep and small earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault, which had a magnitude 8 earthquake with 5 m of slip in 1906. The fault has apparently been dormant after the 1906 earthquake. One possibility is that the fault is ‘locked’ in some way and only produces great earthquakes. An alternative possibility, presented here, is that the lack of current activity on the northern San Andreas fault is because of a lack of sufficient elastic strain after the 1906 earthquake. This is indicated by geodetic measurements at Fort Ross in 1874, 1906 (post-earthquake), and 1969, which show that the strain accumulation in 1969 (69 · 10 −6 engineering strain) was only about one-third of the strain release (rebound) in the 1906 earthquake (200 · 10 −6 engineering strain). The large difference in seismicity before and after 1906, with many strong local earthquakes from 1836 to 1906, but only a few strong earthquakes from 1906 to 1976, also indicates a difference of elastic strain. The geologic characteristics (serpentine, fault straightness) of most of the northern San Andreas fault are very similar to the characteristics of the fault south of Hollister, where fault creep is occurring. Thus, the current absence of fault creep on the northern fault segment is probably due to a lack of sufficient elastic strain at the present time.

California↗
USGS1988

The response of creeping parts of the San Andreas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults: Two examples

Rates of shallow slip on creeping sections of the San Andreas fault have been perturbed on a number of occasions by earthquakes occurring on nearby faults. One example of such perturbations occurred during the 26 January 1986 magnitude 5.3 Tres Pinos earthquake located about 10 km southeast of Hollister, California. Seven creepmeters on the San Andreas fault showed creep steps either during or soon after the shock. Both left-lateral (LL) and right-lateral (RL) steps were observed. A rectangular dislocation in an elastic half-space was used to model the coseismic fault offset at the hypocenter. For a model based on the preliminary focal mechanism, the predicted changes in static shear stress on the plane of the San Andreas fault agreed in sense (LL or RL) with the observed slip directions at all seven meters; for a model based on a refined focal mechanism, six of the seven meters showed the correct sense of motion. Two possible explanations for such coseismic and postseismic steps are (1) that slip was triggered by the earthquake shaking or (2) that slip occurred in response to the changes in static stress fields accompanying the earthquake. In the Tres Pinos example, the observed steps may have been of both the triggered and responsive kinds. A second example is provided by the 2 May 1983 magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake, which profoundly altered slip rates at five creepmeters on the San Andreas fault for a period of months to years. The XMM1 meter 9 km northwest of Parkfield, California recorded LL creep for more than a year after the event. To simulate the temporal behavior of the XMM1 meter and to view the stress perturbation provided by the Coalinga earthquake in the context of steady-state deformation on the San Andreas fault, a simple time-evolving dislocation model was constructed. The model was driven by a single long vertical dislocation below 15 km in depth, that was forced to slip at 35 mm/yr in a RL sense. A dislocation element placed in the seismogenic layer under XMM1 was given a finite breaking strength of sufficient magnitude to produce a Parkfield-like earthquake every 22 years. When stress changes equivalent to a Coalinga earthquake were superposed on the model running in a steady state mode, the effect was to make a segment under XMM1, that could slip in a linear viscous fashion, creep LL and to delay the onset of the next Parkfield-like earthquake by a year or more. If static stress changes imposed by earthquakes off the San Andreas can indeed advance or delay earthquakes on the San Andreas by months or years, then such changes must be considered in intermediate-term prediction efforts. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗