Geology topics

Stephen B. Gingerich

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen B. Gingerich.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Advancing sustainable groundwater management with a hydro-economic system model: Investigations in the Harney Basin, Oregon

Groundwater resources frequently trend toward unsustainable levels because, absent effective institutions, individual water users generally act independently without considering the impacts on other users. Hydro-economic models (HEMs) of human-natural systems can play a positive role toward successful groundwater management by yielding valuable knowledge and insight. The current study explores how an HEM that captures essential physical and economic characteristics of a system can shed light on the system's processes and dynamics to benefit stakeholders, managers, and also researchers. These propositions are illustrated using the Harney Basin, Oregon, which has seen large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. The HEM shows that: (a) although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping; (b) lowland areas of the basin are hydrologically connected, which limits the efficacy of remedies focused on regulations only in some portions of the basin; (c) community expectations regarding the efficacy of several proposed solutions are overly optimistic; and (d) the study's scenarios identify interventions that would stabilize the groundwater system and prevent additional adverse impacts on residential and livestock wells and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. These interventions would require limiting groundwater pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by $7.5–$9.0M. The HEM also demonstrated its value to researchers: its insights shifted attention toward questions about Oregon's existing groundwater institutions and their inability to adaptively manage the transition from abundant groundwater to scarce groundwater in a timely manner.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

Assessment of long-term changes in surface-water extent within Klamath Marsh, south-central Oregon, 1985–2021

The annual maximum extent of surface water in Klamath Marsh has naturally fluctuated in response to periods of wet and dry conditions in the surrounding basin. Field observations during the 2010s indicate that the annual maximum extent of surface water has been declining and the marsh is not responding to hydrologic inputs as it had historically. This report describes the results of a hydrologic evaluation of Klamath Marsh to characterize and understand multi-year declines in the surface-water extent and increased intermittency of streamflow exiting the marsh. Landsat imagery collected during 1985–2021 was processed to create a time series of annual maximum surface-water extent to assess changes in surface-water inundation within the marsh. A 50-percent decrease in the mean surface area of annual total open-water extent (TOWE) during the latter half of the study period (2003–21) compared to the first half (1985–2003) was observed in this 37-year time-series dataset. The change in open-water extent was offset by a corresponding increase in dry land in the marsh. Time series of streamflow, groundwater level, total annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and anthropogenic water use and water management were compiled and evaluated to improve understanding of the factors affecting TOWE. Statistically significant downward trends in the regional groundwater table and streamflow into and out of the marsh were identified as well as statistically significant upward trends in annual mean temperature. Statistically significant correlations among TOWE, streamflow, and groundwater level also were identified. The decreasing trends could not be attributed to changes in total annual precipitation or changing anthropogenic groundwater use within the study area. Declines in the open-water extent of Klamath Marsh since 2000 principally are due to a decoupling of the groundwater and surface-water system beneath the marsh because of regional declines in groundwater level. Regional increases in air temperature and the reestablishment of more than 55,000 acres of forested land within the study area have likely contributed to increasing evapotranspiration, leaving less water available for groundwater recharge and stream base flow and resulting in basin-wide declines in streamflow and groundwater levels.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

Groundwater model of the Harney Basin, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater development, mainly for large-scale irrigation, has increased substantially in the Harney Basin of southeastern Oregon since 2010. Concurrently, some areas of the basin experienced groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet, and some shallow wells have gone dry. The Oregon Water Resources Department has limited new groundwater development in the basin until an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system is available. The groundwater resources report by Gingerich and others (2022, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2021–5103, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215103 ) provides that understanding. This report describes the development of a numerical groundwater-flow model that can be used as a tool to help improve that understanding. The Harney Basin Groundwater Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater-modeling software U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW 6) and associated Python pre- and post-processing routines. The groundwater model encompasses the entire 5,240-square-mile Harney Basin and adjacent areas and is calibrated to the hydrologic conditions from 1930 to 2018. The model has a uniform grid consisting of 78,064 nearly square cells, each covering 2,005 by 2,007 feet (about 92 acres) and has 10 layers (780,640 total cells) representing the vertical distribution of hydrogeologic units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicate that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge since about the mid-1980s, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 840,000 acre-feet and also indicated declines in groundwater evapotranspiration and spring and stream discharge. Model simulations show as much as 100 feet of groundwater-level decline in some areas and more than 40 feet of decline in widespread areas in recent decades. Model simulations are consistent with field observations of groundwater levels through time.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Assessing the effects of chloride deicer applications on groundwater near the Siskiyou Pass, southwestern Oregon, July 2018–February 2021

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), evaluated the effects of cold-weather chloride deicers (road deicing chemicals) on groundwater quality, with a focus on chloride, near the Siskiyou Pass in southwestern Oregon. The study covered the period during July 2018 through February 2021. Between the years 2016 and 2020 ODOT applied up to 16,000 gallons per mile of chloride deicer and 143,000 pounds per mile of road salt along an 11-mile stretch of Interstate 5 (I-5) through the Siskiyou Pass. Despite the benefit of safer driving conditions, there are potentially negative environmental effects associated with the use of chloride-based deicers (such as magnesium chloride and sodium chloride). The results from this study are intended to help ODOT assess the water-quality effects from the application of chloride deicers at the Siskiyou Pass and inform decisions on how those chemicals are used. Dissolved chloride concentrations tended to be greater in groundwater downgradient from I-5 compared to groundwater upgradient from the interstate. Specific conductance was a good predictor of dissolved chloride concentration (R 2 = 0.905). Continuous monitoring showed that specific conductance measurements were greater at four downgradient spring-fed sites at the end of the study period compared with measurements at the beginning of the study. The study results indicate that chloride levels in shallow groundwater downgradient from I-5 are increasing, but dissolved chloride concentrations in domestic wells are not above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water recommendations. The approach and methods used in this study, with modifications as site conditions warrant, can be applied in other areas of chloride deicer application to determine if groundwater is affected.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Groundwater resources of the Harney Basin, southeastern Oregon

In response to increasing groundwater demand and declining groundwater levels in the Harney Basin of southeastern Oregon, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Water Resources Department conducted a cooperative groundwater-availability study during 2016–22. This Fact Sheet summarizes the results of this study. Full details of the study are provided in Gingerich and others (2022a, 2022b), Garcia and others (2022), and the other supporting documents listed on the last page of this Fact Sheet.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Groundwater resources of the Harney Basin, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater development has increased substantially in southeastern Oregon’s Harney Basin since 2010, mainly for the purpose of large-scale irrigation. Concurrently, some areas of the basin experienced groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet, and some shallow wells have gone dry. The Oregon Water Resources Department has limited new groundwater development in the basin until an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system is available. This report describes the results of a hydrologic investigation undertaken to provide that understanding. The investigation encompasses the groundwater hydrology of the entire 5,240-square-mile Harney Basin. Most of the precipitation in the Harney Basin falls in the higher-elevation areas of the Blue Mountains and Steens Mountain. Although considerable groundwater recharge occurs in these upland areas, most (83 percent) re-emerges as streams and springs in the uplands. Groundwater recharge in the lowlands is provided through infiltration of surface water flowing onto the lowlands from rivers and streams leaving the uplands and as groundwater flow from the surrounding upland rocks. Water-balance calculations indicate that the rate of groundwater recharge to the Harney Basin lowlands (where most groundwater is withdrawn) averages 173,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). Groundwater in the Harney Basin lowlands mainly discharges through evapotranspiration from groundwater-irrigated (supplied from wells) crops or from natural vegetation drawing groundwater from the shallow water table and capillary fringe. Groundwater discharge in the lowlands is estimated to be about 283,000 acre-ft/yr, which exceeds the estimated groundwater recharge to the lowlands by about 110,000 acre-ft/yr. This imbalance results in removal of groundwater from storage in the aquifer system and is evidenced by the large declines observed in groundwater levels in the areas of greatest groundwater pumpage. To a large degree, the location and depth of pumpage dictate the timing and distribution of the effects of groundwater use in the Harney Basin. Pumpage is commonly greatest in the areas where higher-permeability geologic units allow for higher well yields. However, many of these higher-permeability units are bounded by lower-permeability units that cannot supply groundwater at a sufficient rate to replenish the areas of greatest pumpage, resulting in groundwater-level declines. Three Harney Basin areas with a combined area exceeding 140 square miles have experienced groundwater-level declines exceeding 40 feet compared to pre-development conditions: near the Weaver Spring/Dog Mountain area, in the northeastern floodplains along Highway 20, and near Crane. Areas of more modest groundwater-level decline (about 10 feet) were identified in the Virginia Valley area and the Silver Creek floodplain north of Riley. Smaller localized areas of groundwater-level depression have also formed around individual wells or groups of wells throughout the Harney Basin lowlands. Most groundwater being pumped from the Harney Basin lowlands, including all three areas experiencing large groundwater-level declines, was recharged more than 12,000 years ago, near the end of the last glacial period when the climate in the basin was cooler and wetter than today. Geochemical evidence indicates that modern recharge generally circulates to a depth no greater than 100 feet below the floodplains of major rivers and streams in the lowlands. Away from the major river and stream corridors, pre-modern water commonly is found at the water table. Recharge to groundwater and recovery of groundwater levels in the most heavily pumped areas in the Harney Basin lowlands are restricted by the limited spatial extent and depth of modern recharge in the Harney Basin lowlands and the relatively fine-grained deposits underlying most of the lowland areas.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Hydrologic budget of the Harney Basin groundwater system, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater-level declines and limited quantitative knowledge of the groundwater-flow system in the Harney Basin prompted a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Water Resources Department to evaluate the groundwater-flow system and budget. This report provides a hydrologic budget of the Harney Basin groundwater system that includes separate groundwater budgets for upland and lowland areas to avoid double counting water that recharges in the uplands, discharges to streams and springs in the uplands, flows downstream to the lowlands, and recharges the lowland groundwater system. Lowlands generally represent the conterminous valleys within the center of the basin, including floodplains of the major streams and uplands represent all other areas in the basin. The upland groundwater budget is minimally affected by groundwater development and generally represents the budget of the natural system. In upland areas during 1982–2016, mean-annual recharge totaled 288,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) and mean-annual discharge totaled 239,000 acre-ft, resulting in a net recharge of 49,000 acre-ft. Upland groundwater recharge occurs as infiltration of precipitation and snowmelt and was estimated using the USGS Soil-Water-Balance model calibrated to estimates of runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), base flow, and snow-water equivalent. Groundwater discharge to streams is the predominant discharge mechanism in upland areas and was estimated as 225,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) during 1982–2016 using hydrograph separation and summer low-flow estimates in streamgaged watersheds and a linear relation between estimated streamflow and base flow in ungaged watersheds. The remaining upland discharge occurs through springs (14,000 acre-ft/yr) that either emerge downgradient of locations where groundwater discharge to streams was estimated or are routed to irrigated areas. Spring discharge was estimated as a compilation of current and historical measurements. The net upland recharge, which is 17 percent of total upland recharge, ultimately recharges lowland areas as groundwater flow from uplands to lowlands. The lowland groundwater budget for the Harney Basin represents a combination of natural conditions and human activity as more than 99 percent of groundwater development has occurred either inside or within 2 miles of the lowland boundary. In lowland areas during 1982–2016, mean annual groundwater recharge totaled 173,000 acre-ft and groundwater discharge totaled 283,000 acre-ft, indicating discharge exceeded recharge by more than 60 percent. Excluding groundwater pumping, the lowland groundwater budget is more in balance with a mean annual recharge of 165,000 acre-ft and a mean annual discharge of 131,000 acre-ft during 1982–2016. The 23-percent difference between non-pumping recharge and discharge mostly represents the cumulative uncertainty in the estimates of the various groundwater budget components but also likely includes a small reduction in natural groundwater discharge captured by pumping. Lowland groundwater is predominantly recharged by infiltration of surface water (116,000 acre-ft/yr) through streams, floodwater, and irrigation, with a lesser amount as groundwater inflow from uplands and minimal recharge beneath Malheur and Harney Lakes. Recharge from streams and floodwater (natural and irrigation) was estimated using a balance of measured and estimated surface-water inflow to and outflow from lowland areas including streamflow, springflow, and ET where a portion of surface-water inflow to lowland areas is comprised of upland discharge to streams and springs. Groundwater ET (119,000 acre-ft/yr) is the predominant natural discharge mechanism in lowland areas and was estimated as the mean from two remote-sensing based approaches incorporating groundwater ET measurements from other similar basins and 23 years (1987–2015) of Landsat imagery. Discharge of lowland groundwater into Malheur and Harney Lakes is about 700 acre-ft/yr and is represented in groundwater ET estimates. The remaining natural groundwater discharge from lowland areas issues from Sodhouse Spring (8,900 acre-ft/yr) and as groundwater flow to the Malheur River Basin through Virginia Valley (3,100 acre-ft/yr). The relatively large amount of groundwater discharged to springs in Warm Springs Valley (25,000 acre-ft/yr) is accounted for in groundwater ET estimates. Natural groundwater discharge in lowland areas of the Harney Basin has remained relatively constant during the last 80 years based on comparisons with estimates north of Malheur Lake and west of Harney Lake published in the 1930s. Annual net amount of groundwater pumped (pumpage) from the Harney Basin during 2017–18 averaged 144,000 acre-ft. The net value is the difference between pumpage (about 152,000 acre-ft/yr) and reinfiltration of groundwater pumped for irrigation and non-irrigation purposes (about 8,000 acre-ft/yr). Net pumpage was estimated in concurrent studies that compiled groundwater-use data and coupled reported groundwater pumpage data from wells with remote-sensing-based ET estimates from groundwater-irrigated fields. Total pumpage for irrigation has increased from about 54,000 acre-ft/yr during 1991–92 to 145,000 acre-ft/yr during 2017–18. Presently, pumpage is greatest in the lowland region north of Malheur Lake (81,000 acre-ft/yr), with lesser amounts to the north and northwest of Harney Lake (41,000 acre-ft/yr) and to the south and east of Malheur Lake (22,000 acre-ft/yr). During this study, mean annual lowland groundwater discharge (including pumpage) exceeded mean annual recharge, indicating that the lowland hydrologic budget is out of balance. Net groundwater pumpage during 2017–18 is similar to groundwater discharge from all other sources in the lowlands and is four times the imbalance between non-pumping lowland recharge and discharge (34,000 acre-ft/yr). Declining groundwater levels at depth across many parts of the Harney Basin lowlands indicate that pumpage is depleting aquifer storage and is likely capturing a small amount of natural groundwater discharge to springs and ET in some lowland areas. If pumping continues, aquifer storage depletion will continue until the capture rate of natural discharge to springs and ET is equal to the pumping rate. If groundwater development occurs in upland areas and reduces either the streamflow or groundwater inflow to lowland areas, the deficit in the lowland water budget will increase.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Anomalous noble gas solubility in liquid cloud water: Possible implications for noble gas temperatures and cloud physics

The noble gas temperature climate proxy is an established tool that has previously been applied to determine the source of groundwater recharge, however, unanswered questions remain. In fractured media (e.g., volcanic islands) recharge can be so rapid that groundwater is significantly depleted in heavy noble gases, indicating that the water has retained noble gas concentrations from higher elevations. Previous studies of rain samples have confirmed a match to patterns seen in fractured-rock groundwater for heavy noble gases along with a significant helium excess. Snow has been shown to be a credible source for both the helium excess and the observed heavy noble gas pattern. Here, liquid cloud water samples were collected at two mountainous sites and analyzed for noble gas concentrations. A pattern like that of rainwater was found. However, an analysis of diffusive uptake of noble gases into cloud water demonstrates that droplets of 1 mm diameter and smaller should be in constant solubility equilibrium with the atmosphere. To explain this, we present a novel hypothesis that relies on the assumption that liquid water consists of two types of water molecule clusters bounded by hydrogen bonds: a low-density ice-like structure and a high-density condensed structure. In this model, the pressure gradient near the surface of a droplet resulting from surface tension could allow for the formation of a surface layer that is rich in ice-like low density clusters. This can explain both the helium excess and the heavy noble gas depletion seen in the samples.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2021

Groundwater dynamics at Kīlauea Volcano and vicinity, Hawaiʻi

Kīlauea Volcano, on the Island of Hawaiʻi, is surrounded and permeated by active groundwater systems that interact dynamically with the volcanic system. A generalized conceptual model of Hawaiian hydrogeology includes high-level dike-impounded groundwater, very permeable perched and basal aquifers, and a transition (mixing) zone between freshwater and saltwater. Most high-level groundwater is associated with the low-permeability intrusive complexes that underlie volcanic rift zones and calderas and also act to compartmentalize the groundwater system. Hydrogeologic studies of Kīlauea in recent decades, accompanied by deep research drilling, have shown that high-level groundwater is more widespread than once understood, that permeability decreases dramatically at depth, particularly in rift zones, and that freshwater can occur at depths of as much as several kilometers below the local water table. Copious groundwater recharge causes near-surface conductive heat flow to be near zero over much of Kīlauea. Approximately 95 percent of groundwater discharge occurs offshore, accompanied by approximately 99 percent of the approximately 6,000 megawatts of heat supplied by magmatic intrusion. Here, we summarize current understanding of the groundwater system of Kīlauea Volcano and describe transient changes during the decade or more preceding the 2018 eruption sequence. The changes in groundwater chemistry and thermal structure beneath Kīlauea summit hold implications for volcanic-volatile transport and the potential for explosive volcanism. Between 2008 and 2018, the magma conduit beneath the lava lake likely created an adjacent zone of very hot rock that significantly delayed liquid groundwater inflow to the draining magma conduit. Sulfate concentrations in groundwater beneath Kīlauea summit, sampled at the National Science Foundation-funded drill hole 1.5 kilometers south-southwest of the lava lake, declined substantially between 2010 and present. This decline likely reflects, at least in part, the decreased effectiveness of volatile condensation and solution into groundwater (scrubbing). The vent opening in 2008 presumably focused volatile flux into the vicinity of the vent, and progressive drying of the surroundings further restricted interaction with the groundwater system. The decrease in sulfate concentrations in the drill hole between 2010 and 2018 likely reflects decreased effectiveness of scrubbing.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Isotopic and geochemical assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater resources of Guam, Mariana Islands, to intra- and inter-annual variations in hydroclimate

Assessing the sensitivity of groundwater systems to hydroclimate variability is critical to sustainable management of the water resources of Guam, US territory. We assess spatial and temporal variability of isotopic and geochemical compositions of vadose and phreatic groundwater sampled from cave drip sites and production wells, respectively, to better understand the vulnerability of the freshwater lens on Guam to variability in hydroclimate. We independently evaluate the existing conceptual model of the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer that is largely based on physical, as opposed to geochemical, observations. Sampling was conducted from 2008 to 2015, over which rainfall gradually increased. Major ion geochemistry and Sr isotope values of groundwater show varying influence from soil, limestone bedrock, and seawater. Geochemical modeling that can explain spatial variability in groundwater Na+ and Mg2+ concentrations and Sr/Ca and 87Sr/86 Sr values indicates that groundwater compositions are dominantly controlled by mixing of freshwater with seawater and water-rock interaction. Differences between amount-weighted annual average precipitation δ18 O values and groundwater δ18 O values indicate a recharge bias toward the wet season, consistent with other tropical carbonate island aquifer settings. Intra- and inter-annual variations in Na+ concentrations and δ18 O values in groundwater reflect sensitivity of recharge to seasonal variations in rainfall amount and changes in annual rainfall amounts. Our results indicate the influence of multiple modes of recharge on groundwater compositions and spatial variability in the sensitivity of groundwater to seawater mixing. This sensitivity of the freshwater lens points to the vulnerability of groundwater resources to changes in recharge associated with climate, land-use change, and increases in population.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2019

Water resources on Guam—Potential impacts of and adaptive response to climate change

The goals of this joint U.S. Geological Survey, University of Hawaiʻi, University of Guam, University of Texas, and East-West Center study were to (1) provide basic understanding about water resources for U.S. Department of Defense installations on Guam and (2) assess the resulting effect of sea-level rise and a changing climate on freshwater availability, on the basis of historic information, sea-level rise projections, and global-climate model temperature and rainfall projections. Downscaled regional climate models, informed by a multimodel ensemble of global climate models provided projections of future climate conditions for Guam. These projected climate conditions provided input to surface-water and groundwater models developed for Guam’s hydrology. Guam’s water resources in a future climate condition (2080–99) are projected to diminish relative to the recent climate condition. Projected average temperature increases, and average rainfall decreases will lead to reduced streamflow in southern Guam and reduced groundwater recharge to the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer (NGLA). Projected average temperatures in southern Guam will increase about 5.8 °F (3.22 °C), overall rainfall will decrease about 7 percent, and streamflow will consequently decrease 18 percent in important areas of southern Guam. Similarly, across the NGLA, future groundwater recharge will be 19 percent less than estimated recharge from 2012. Reduced future streamflow will decrease water availability from the Fena Valley Reservoir; however, the reservoir is expected to be able to supply water at recent demand rates without lowering the reservoir level to the elevation of the water-supply intakes throughout the simulated period of a future climate. A twelve-year simulation indicates that the reservoir can supply about twice the 2018 demand without lowering the reservoir level to the water-supply intakes. By following mitigation strategies to increase reservoir water availability, the withdrawal rate can be increased by 1.7 percent if the water-supply intakes are lowered 5 ft, by 3.5 percent if the spillway height is raised 5 ft, and by 5.3 percent if both strategies are combined. Higher sea level and reduced future recharge will decrease water availability from the NGLA. An index of composite chloride concentration from production wells increases to 300 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for future climate conditions and at 2010 withdrawal rates, compared with 130 mg/L under historic climate conditions. Most of this increase is due to reduced recharge as higher (+3.2 ft) sea level only has a small role in increasing withdrawn water salinity. A redistributed withdrawal scenario in which the composite chloride concentration is 290 mg/L offers only slight improvement. Should future droughts reduce recharge proportionally to the decreases observed during historic droughts, the composite concentration would be about 900 mg/L, and more than 70 percent of Guam’s production wells would produce water with a composite concentration greater than 500 mg/L. Potential mitigation strategies for increasing the potable yield of the NGLA in a future climate include reducing depths of deep production wells and reducing the withdrawal rates in selected wells projected to have higher chloride concentrations. Simulations show both strategies are effective in lowering the composite concentration of the withdrawn water.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Deep aquifer recharge in the Columbia River Basalt Group, upper Umatilla River Basin, northeastern Oregon

Groundwater is an important component of the water resources of the upper Umatilla River Basin of northeastern Oregon. As such, understanding the capacity of the resource is vital. Past studies have estimated recharge in the study area. One recent study of the upper Umatilla River Basin indicated that about 80 percent of recharge entering the groundwater system is discharged to streams in the study area through shallow groundwater-flow paths, leaving about 20 percent of recharge to infiltrate deeper parts of the aquifer system. The purpose of this work is to quantify the spatial distribution and variability of deep aquifer recharge in the study area and to understand the reasons for a relatively low percentage of total recharge reaching the deeper parts of the groundwater-flow system. The study area is divided into two distinct physiographic regions—the highly dissected Blue Mountains and the lowland plains. Underlying both regions of the study area are basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), which is the principal aquifer in the study area. Deep incision by streams in the Blue Mountains disrupts the lateral continuity of the CRBG aquifer units, and infiltrating water is more readily diverted laterally and discharged to streams and springs. In the lowland plains, incision is less pronounced. The shallow CRBG units might be disrupted, but deeper aquifer units retain their lateral continuity and enable groundwater to infiltrate deeper and flow laterally farther downgradient before discharging. Recharge to the deep basalt aquifers is estimated as the difference between total recharge and base flow. Total recharge is the portion of precipitation and applied irrigation water that infiltrates past the root zone to become groundwater recharge. Of this total recharge, a proportion discharges to springs and streams in the study area, and the remaining water infiltrates below the base level of streams and recharges the deep basalt aquifers and contributes to the regional groundwater flow system. The portion of total recharge that recharges the regional flow system is referred to as deep aquifer recharge. Total recharge is the portion of precipitation and applied irrigation water that infiltrates past the root zone to become groundwater recharge. It is the sum of recharge from precipitation and recharge from infiltration of irrigation water. Recharge from precipitation was calculated using a regression method developed for the Columbia Plateau. Recharge from infiltrating irrigation water was obtained from a water balance model developed for the Columbia Plateau. Base flow, the component of streamflow that represents groundwater discharge as opposed to runoff from the land surface, was estimated using the Base Flow Index Modified (BFI-Modified) method, an empirical hydrograph separation technique. Base flow was estimated in eight subbasins with streamgages within the study area. Five of the eight subbasins in which base flow was estimated had permitted water rights for irrigation that specified surface water as the primary source of water. Maximum surface-water withdrawal for irrigation was estimated for all subbasins in which water rights for irrigation occur. The base-flow estimate from BFI-Modified is assumed to be the minimum amount of base flow. The sum of the BFIModified base-flow estimate and the maximum permitted surface-water withdrawal estimate for each subbasin is assumed to be the maximum amount of base flow at the streamgage. These minimum and maximum estimates of base flow were used to calculate minimum and maximum values of deep aquifer recharge in each subbasin analyzed within the study area. Subbasin estimates were scaled up to the Blue Mountains and lowland plains regions, and to the entire study area. Mean annual total recharge for 1981–2010 in the subbasins, analyzed as part of this work, ranged from 6 inches (in.) in the Patawa and Wildhorse Creek subbasins in the lowland plains to as much as 20 in. in the Umatilla River above Meacham Creek subbasin. Mean annual total recharge totaled 4 in. in the lowland plains region and 14 in. in the Blue Mountains. Mean annual total recharge for the entire study area was 11 in. Mean annual base flow ranged from 1 in. in the Patawa and Wildhorse Creek subbasins in the lowland plains to as much as 14 in. in the Umatilla River above Meacham Creek subbasin in the Blue Mountains. Mean annual deep aquifer recharge ranged from 4 in. in the Patawa and Wildhorse Creek subbasins in the lowland plains to as much as 8 in. in the Isqu’ulktpe Creek subbasin in the Blue Mountains. Deep aquifer recharge was 3–4 in. in the lowland plains region and 6 in. in the Blue Mountains. Over the entire study area, mean annual deep aquifer recharge was 5 in. Most groundwater recharge (both total and deep aquifer) in the study area occurred in the Blue Mountains, which highlights the importance of the Blue Mountains as the principal source of groundwater for the study area and for aquifers farther downgradient. Total recharge in the Blue Mountains region represents 86 percent of the mean annual total recharge in the study area in an area that encompasses 65 percent of the study area. However, only 43–44 percent of the mean annual total recharge remains in the system to recharge the deeper, regional aquifer system because the rest is discharged as base flow within the Blue Mountains region. Within the lowland plains region of the study area, an estimated 67–84 percent of the mean annual total recharge remains in the system to recharge the deep, regional aquifer system. Although total recharge in the study area represents only 14 percent of the total recharge across the study area, it contributes 20–24 percent of the water to the deep aquifer. The difference in the percentage of deep groundwater recharge in the Blue Mountains and the lowland plains is attributed to differences in the degree of stream incision. Stream channels are more incised in the Blue Mountains region than they are in the lowland plains. The dissection of the landscape in the Blue Mountains disrupts the lateral continuity of the CRBG aquifer units and allows groundwater to discharge to springs and streams rather than infiltrate more deeply. In the lowland plains region, incision is much less pronounced and deeper CRBG units likely retain their lateral continuity, enabling groundwater to infiltrate more deeply than in the Blue Mountains.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Tropical cyclone projections: Changing climate threats for Pacific Island defense installations

Potential changing climate threats in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific Ocean were assessed, using coupled ocean-atmosphere and atmosphere-only general circulation models, to explore their response to projected increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Tropical cyclone occurrence, described by their frequency and intensity, near islands housing major U.S. defense installations was the primary focus. Four island regions—Guam and Kwajalein Atoll in the tropical northwestern Pacific, Okinawa in the subtropical northwestern Pacific, and O‘ahu in the tropical northcentral Pacific—were considered, as they provide unique climate and geographical characteristics that either enhance or reduce the tropical cyclone risk. Guam experiences the most frequent and severe tropical cyclones, which often originate as weak systems close to the equator near Kwajalein and sometimes track far enough north to affect Okinawa, whereas intense storms are the least frequent around O‘ahu. From assessments of models that simulate well the tropical Pacific climate, it was determined that, with a projected warming climate, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease for Guam and Kwajalein but remain about the same near Okinawa and O‘ahu; however, the maximum intensity of the strongest storms may increase in most regions. The likelihood of fewer but stronger storms will necessitate new localized assessments of the risk and vulnerabilities to tropical cyclones in the North Pacific.

Weather, Climate, and Society↗

USGS2018

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Science Advances↗

USGS2017

Noble gas signatures in the Island of Maui, Hawaii: Characterizing groundwater sources in fractured systems

Uneven distribution of rainfall and freshwater scarcity in populated areas in the Island of Maui, Hawaii, renders water resources management a challenge in this complex and ill-defined hydrological system. A previous study in the Galapagos Islands suggests that noble gas temperatures (NGTs) record seasonality in that fractured, rapid infiltration groundwater system rather than the commonly observed mean annual air temperature (MAAT) in sedimentary systems where infiltration is slower thus, providing information on recharge sources and potential flow paths. Here we report noble gas results from the basal aquifer, springs, and rainwater in Maui to explore the potential for noble gases in characterizing this type of complex fractured hydrologic systems. Most samples display a mass-dependent depletion pattern with respect to surface conditions consistent with previous observations both in the Galapagos Islands and Michigan rainwater. Basal aquifer and rainwater noble gas patterns are similar and suggest direct, fast recharge from precipitation to the basal aquifer. In contrast, multiple springs, representative of perched aquifers, display highly variable noble gas concentrations suggesting recharge from a variety of sources. The distinct noble gas patterns for the basal aquifer and springs suggest that basal and perched aquifers are separate entities. Maui rainwater displays high apparent NGTs, incompatible with surface conditions, pointing either to an origin at high altitudes with the presence of ice or an ice-like source of undetermined origin. Overall, noble gas signatures in Maui reflect the source of recharge rather than the expected altitude/temperature relationship commonly observed in sedimentary systems.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Seawater-flooding events and impact on freshwater lenses of low-lying islands: Controlling factors, basic management and mitigation

An unprecedented set of hydrologic observations was collected after the Dec 2008 seawater-flooding event on Roi-Namur, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. By two days after the seawater flooding that occurred at the beginning of dry season, the observed salinity of water withdrawn by the island’s main skimming well increased to 100% seawater concentration, but by ten days later already decreased to only 10–20% of seawater fraction. However, the damaging impact on the potability of the groundwater supply (when pumped water had concentrations above 1% seawater fraction) lasted 22 months longer. The data collected make possible analyses of the hydrologic factors that control recovery and management of the groundwater-supply quality on Roi-Namur and on similar low-lying islands. With the observed data as a guide, three-dimensional numerical-model simulation analyses reveal how recovery is controlled by the island’s hydrology. These also allow evaluation of the efficacy of basic water-quality management/mitigation alternatives and elucidate how groundwater withdrawal and timing of the seawater-flooding event affect the length of recovery. Simulations show that, as might be expected, by adding surplus captured rainwater as artificial recharge, the freshwater-lens recovery period (after which potable groundwater may again be produced) can be shortened, with groundwater salinity remaining lower even during the dry season, a period during which no artificial recharge is applied. Simulations also show that the recovery period is not lengthened appreciably by groundwater withdrawals during recovery. Simulations further show that had the flooding event occurred at the start of the wet season, the recovery period would have been about 25% (5.5 months) shorter than actually occurred during the monitored flood that occurred at the dry-season start. Finally, analyses show that artificial recharge improves freshwater-lens water quality, making possible longer use of groundwater as a water supply throughout each year, even when no seawater flooding has occurred.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2015

Climate trends and projections for Guam

The island of Guam experiences a tropical marine climate, which is warm and humid moderated by seasonal tradewinds and a wet and dry season. The dry season lasts from January to June, while the rainy months are from July to December. Annual rainfall totals 84-116 inches (2133-2946 mm), of which two-thirds fall during the rainy season. Seasonal temperatures and precipitation are also affected by the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones, which cause the largest deviations from average precipitation. An average of three tropical storms and one typhoon pass within 80 nautical miles of Guam each year, and both flooding and drought can impact freshwater supply management and associated infrastructure.

Report↗

USGS2013

Estimating hydraulic properties from tidal attenuation in the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer, territory of Guam, USA

Tidal-signal attenuations are analyzed to compute hydraulic diffusivities and estimate regional hydraulic conductivities of the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer, Territory of Guam (Pacific Ocean), USA. The results indicate a significant tidal-damping effect at the coastal boundary. Hydraulic diffusivities computed using a simple analytical solution for well responses to tidal forcings near the periphery of the island are two orders of magnitude lower than for wells in the island’s interior. Based on assigned specific yields of ~0.01–0.4, estimated hydraulic conductivities are ~20–800 m/day for peripheral wells, and ~2,000–90,000 m/day for interior wells. The lower conductivity of the peripheral rocks relative to the interior rocks may best be explained by the effects of karst evolution: (1) dissolutional enhancement of horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the interior; (2) case-hardening and concurrent reduction of local hydraulic conductivity in the cliffs and steeply inclined rocks of the periphery; and (3) the stronger influence of higher-conductivity regional-scale features in the interior relative to the periphery. A simple numerical model calibrated with measured water levels and tidal response estimates values for hydraulic conductivity and storage parameters consistent with the analytical solution. The study demonstrates how simple techniques can be useful for characterizing regional aquifer properties.

Hydrogeology Journal↗