Geology topics

Raphael Kudela

Publications and source records attributed to Raphael Kudela.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Revisiting chlorophyll a thresholds for San Francisco Bay: Insights from observations of phytoplankton molecular abundance

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a hazard for coastal environments worldwide; identifying screening thresholds of chlorophyll- a (chl- a) associated with increased risk of HABs is a management priority. Molecular surveillance of coastal phytoplankton and bivalve biotoxins could be used to link chl- a with HAB risk, but requires an understanding of whether the HAB risks increase uniformly as chl-a rises, or whether some taxa are disproportionately favored, and if these relationships vary by season. In this study, we present a novel use of molecular abundance data to investigate the scientific bases for estuarine chl- a thresholds protective against HABs. In San Francisco Bay (SFB), California, the relationship between molecular relative abundance (as measured by 18S metabarcoding) of nine different HAB taxa, absolute quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) abundance, and mussel toxin concentrations of a subset of the taxa were investigated for thresholds as a function of increasing chl- a . Our results show most HAB taxa did not increase in absolute or relative abundance during SFB’s spring bloom interval, when chl- a levels were highest (>10 µg/L) but the assemblage was dominated by non-harmful diatoms. However, several flagellated, mixotrophic taxa did increase above their molecular baseline in fall, and the combined probability of any HAB occurring above baseline was elevated when chl- a reached ∼4.6 µg/L in the fall. This work demonstrates the promise of molecular approaches in disentangling the seasonally complex interplay between stressors and phytoplankton/HAB community responses and has the potential to provide clearer, more cost-effective monitoring and mitigation strategies for managers.

California↗

USGS2024

Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

Report↗

USGS2022

Integrative monitoring strategy for marine and freshwater harmful algal blooms and toxins across the freshwater-to-marine continuum

Many coastal states throughout the USA have observed negative effects in marine and estuarine environments caused by cyanotoxins produced in inland waterbodies that were transported downstream or produced in the estuaries. Estuaries and other downstream receiving waters now face the dual risk of impacts from harmful algal blooms (HABs) that occur in the coastal ocean as well as those originating in inland watersheds. Despite this risk, most HAB monitoring efforts do not account for hydrological connections in their monitoring strategies and designs. Monitoring efforts in California have revealed the persistent detection of cyanotoxins across the freshwater-to-marine continuum. These studies underscore the importance of inland waters as conduits for the transfer of cyanotoxins to the marine environment and highlight the importance of approaches that can monitor across hydrologically connected waterbodies. A HAB monitoring strategy is presented for the freshwater-to-marine continuum to inform HAB management and mitigation efforts and address the physical and hydrologic challenges encountered when monitoring in these systems. Three main recommendations are presented based on published studies, new datasets, and existing monitoring programs. First, HAB monitoring would benefit from coordinated and cohesive efforts across hydrologically interconnected waterbodies and across organizational and political boundaries and jurisdictions. Second, a combination of sampling modalities would provide the most effective monitoring for HAB toxin dynamics and transport across hydrologically connected waterbodies, from headwater sources to downstream receiving waterbodies. Third, routine monitoring is needed for toxin mixtures at the land–sea interface including algal toxins of marine origins as well as cyanotoxins that are sourced from inland freshwater or produced in estuaries. Case studies from California are presented to illustrate the implementation of these recommendations, but these recommendations can also be applied to inland states or regions where the downstream receiving waterbody is a freshwater lake, reservoir, or river.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2021

Domoic acid and saxitoxin in seabirds in the United States between 2007 and 2018

As harmful algal blooms (HABs) increase in magnitude and duration worldwide, they are becoming an expanding threat to marine wildlife. Over the past decade, blooms of algae that produce the neurotoxins domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxin (STX) and documented concurrent seabird mortality events have increased bicoastally in the United States. We conducted a retrospective analysis of HAB related mortality events in California, Washington, and Rhode Island between 2007 and 2018 involving 12 species of seabirds, to document the levels, ranges, and patterns of DA and STX in eight sample types (kidney, liver, stomach, intestinal, cloacal, cecal contents, bile, blood) collected from birds during these events. Samples ( n = 182 ) from 83 birds were examined for DA ( n = 135) or STX ( n = 17) or both toxins simultaneously ( n = 30), using ELISA or LCMS at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA-NMFS) Wildlife Algal-toxin Research and Response Network (WARRN-West) or the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC). DA or STX was detected in seven of the sample types with STX below the minimum detection limit in blood for the three samples tested. DA was found in 70% and STX was found in 23% of all tested samples. The ranges of detectable levels of DA and STX in all samples were 0.65–681,190.00 ng g −1 and 2.00–20.95 ng g −1 , respectively. Cloacal contents from a Pacific loon ( Gavia pacifica ) collected in 2017 from Ventura County, California, had the highest maximum level of DA for all samples and species tested in this study. The highest level of STX for all samples and species was detected in the bile of a northern fulmar ( Fulmarus glacialis ) collected in 2018 from San Luis Obispo County, California. DA detections were consistently found in gastrointestinal samples, liver, bile, and kidney, whereas STX detections were most frequently seen in liver and bile samples. Co-occurring HAB toxins (DA and STX) were detected in white-winged scoters ( Melanitta deglandi ) in 2009, a Brandt's cormorant ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) in 2015, and a northern fulmar and common murre ( Uria aalge ) in 2018. This article provides DA and STX tissue concentrations and patterns in avian samples and shows the utility of various sample types for the detection of HAB toxins. Future research to understand the pharmacodynamics of these toxins in avian species and to establish lethal doses in various bird species would be beneficial.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2020

Changing nitrogen inputs to the northern San Francisco Estuary: Potential ecosystem responses and opportunities for investigation

Anthropogenic activities have resulted in elevated ambient nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in many regions of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay (northern San Francisco Estuary, (nSFE). The Sacramento Regional wastewater treatment plant (SRWTP WWTP) currently acts as the largest N point source to the system, discharging 13,000-15,000 kg/d of ammonium-N (NH4) near the nSFE’s northeastern boundary. By end of 2021, SRWTP will complete major upgrades that will reduce its effluent dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loads by >65% and release the remaining DIN as predominantly nitrate (NO3). This major change in nitrogen inputs provides a unique opportunity to study ecosystem-scale responses to an altered nutrient regime. While, in general, the nSFE has not experienced some classic symptoms of nutrient over-enrichment typical in other estuaries—e.g., large phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia—other concerning nutrient- related impacts have been hypothesized, including: occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and the production of cyanotoxins; excessive growth of invasive aquatic vegetation; and declines in the abundance and nutritional quality of phytoplankton. These impacts have repercussions for the system’s food web, habitat quality, and the way we manage for transportation, recreation, water conveyance, and drinking water quality. This report develops and applies a framework for i) identifying and examining ecosystem response scenarios to the forthcoming decreased N loads; and ii) identifying opportunities, and constraints or considerations, for investigating those responses, including key data needs or knowledge gaps. Through applying this framework, we identify a set of plausible response scenarios, and evaluate the feasibility of studying or observing those responses along with key study considerations and data and knowledge gaps.

California↗

USGS2018

Investigation of a largescale common murre (Uria aalge) mortality event in California in 2015

From August through December 2015, beachcast bird survey programs reported increased deposition of common murres ( Uria aalge ) on central and northern California beaches, but not on southern California beaches. Coastal wildlife rehabilitation centers received more than 1,000 live, stranded, and debilitated murres from Sonoma County to San Luis Obispo County during August–October. Approximately two-thirds of admitted birds were after-hatch-year birds in emaciated body condition and in various stages of molt, with extremely worn plumage. Necropsies were done on a sample ( n =35) of birds to determine the probable cause of death of beachcast carcasses. Most birds examined during necropsy were emaciated, with starvation the most likely cause of death. Birds were also tested for underlying infectious diseases at the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) and harmful algal bloom toxins at the University of California, Santa Cruz and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's Northwest Fisheries Science Center. Twenty-four out of 29 tested birds had detectable levels of domoic acid, and no indication of infectious disease was found. Emaciation is thought to be the cause of death for these birds, with a large warm water anomaly and harmful algal bloom playing a secondary detrimental role.

California↗

USGS2017

Novel analyses of long-term data provide a scientific basis for chlorophyll-a thresholds in San Francisco Bay

San Francisco Bay (SFB), USA, is highly enriched in nitrogen and phosphorus, but has been resistant to the classic symptoms of eutrophication associated with over-production of phytoplankton . Observations in recent years suggest that this resistance may be weakening, shown by: significant increases of chlorophyll- a ( chl-a ) and decreases of dissolved oxygen (DO), common occurrences of phytoplankton taxa that can form Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), and algal toxins in water and mussels reaching levels of concern. As a result, managers now ask: what levels of chl-a in SFB constitute tipping points of phytoplankton biomass beyond which water quality will become degraded, requiring significant nutrient reductions to avoid impairments? We analyzed data for DO, phytoplankton species composition, chl-a, and algal toxins to derive quantitative relationships between three indicators (HAB abundance, toxin concentrations, DO) and chl-a . Quantile regressions relating HAB abundance and DO to chl-a were significant, indicating SFB is at increased risk of adverse HAB and low DO levels if chl-a continues to increase. Conditional probability analysis (CPA) showed chl-a of 13 mg m −3 as a “protective” threshold below which probabilities for exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance and toxins were reduced. This threshold was similar to chl-a of 13–16 mg m −3 that would meet a SFB-wide 80% saturation Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for DO. Higher “at risk” chl-a thresholds from 25 to 40 mg m −3 corresponded to 0.5 probability of exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance, and for DO below a WQC of 5.0 mg L −1 designated for lower South Bay (LSB) and South Bay (SB). We submit these thresholds as a basis to assess eutrophication status of SFB and to inform nutrient management actions. This approach is transferrable to other estuaries to derive chl-a thresholds protective against eutrophication.

California↗