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Paul L. Flint

Publications and source records attributed to Paul L. Flint.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Applying the scientific method when assessing the influence of migratory birds on the dispersal of H5N1

Background The role of wild birds in the dispersal of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 continues to be the subject of considerable debate. However, some researchers functionally examining the same question are applying opposing null hypotheses when examining this issue. Discussion I describe the correct method for establishing a null hypothesis under the scientific method. I suggest that the correct null hypothesis is that migratory birds can disperse this virus during migration and encourage researchers to design studies to falsify this null. Finally, I provide several examples where statements made during this debate, while strictly true, are not generally informative or are speculative. Summary By adhering to the scientific method, definitive answers regarding the role of wild birds in the dispersal of highly pathogenic viruses will be reached more effectively.

Virology Journal↗
USGS2006

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of greater scaup ( Aythya marila ) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup ( A. affinis ) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival. Greater scaup initiated egg laying later than other species, and most clutches (>80%) were initiated over 20 days each year. We located 1,056 nests; nest success ranged from 7 to 61 % among years. Following loss of their first clutch, 51 % of radio-tagged females attempted to renest. Duckling survival to 30 days of age was 37.5%. Our best model suggested that annual survival did not vary among years and averaged 81 %. Survival rate was positively related to structural body size. Only 8 of 214 banded individuals were reported as recovered (1 each in Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Alaska and 3 in California). Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Wildlife Monographs↗
USGS2005

Geographic variation in survival and migratory tendency among North American Common Mergansers

Movement ecology and demographic parameters for the Common Merganser ( Mergus merganser americanus ) in North America are poorly known. We used band-recovery data from five locations across North America spanning the years 1938–1998 to examine migratory patterns and estimate survival rates. We examined competing time-invariant, age-graduated models with program MARK to study sources of variation in survival and reporting probability. We considered age, sex, geographic location, and the use of nasal saddles on hatching year birds at one location as possible sources of variation. Year-of-banding was included as a covariate in a post-hoc analysis. We found that migratory tendency, defined as the average distance between banding and recovery locations, varied geographically. Similarly, all models accounting for the majority of variation in recovery and survival probabilities included location of banding. Models that included age and sex received less support, but we lacked sufficient data to adequately assess these parameters. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival ranged from 0.21 in Michigan to 0.82 in Oklahoma. Heterogeneity in migration tendency and survival suggests that demographic patterns may vary across geographic scales, with implications for the population dynamics of this species.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS2005

Annual survival and site fidelity of northern pintails banded on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

We banded northern pintails (Anas acuta; n = 13,645) at a single site on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, from 1990 to 2001. We used recaptures from our site in combination with hunter recoveries to model annual survival, recovery rates, and fidelity to our capture location. Most recoveries (>90%) occurred in the Pacific Flyway with 64% reported from California's Central Valley. Our top candidate models allowed survival to vary by sex but not by age or year. Estimated annual survival was 77.6% (95% CI: 73.9-81.0%) for males and 60.2% (95% CI: 53.2-67.0%) for females. Reporting rates varied by age, sex, and year; estimates for adult males exceeded those for adult females by 3.5 times. Within sexes, reporting rates of hatch-year pintails exceeded those of adults. Estimated recovery rates were considerably lower than those estimated during the 1950s-1970s for winter banded pintails (Hestbeck 1993b), but there were no differences in survival rates. This suggests that changes in harvest regulations may not have influenced annual survival in this population. The propensity of banded pintails to return to our capture site (fidelity rate) varied between sexes and was positively correlated with water conditions in prairie Canada. Our estimates of fidelity rates varied from 77.4% to 87.2% for males and 89.8% to 94.3% for females. Our fidelity estimates suggest that some level of subpopulation structuring may exist for northern pintails. Additionally, our estimates of fidelity support previous observations of northern pintails overflying poor wetland habitat conditions on the Canadian prairies.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2005

Effects of dietary selenium exposure in captive American common eiders

We conducted two studies of Se exposure in captive common eiders (Somateria mollissima). In Study 1, eiders were fed diets with added Se (as L-selenomethionine) in concentrations increasing from 10 ppm to 80 ppm. In Study 2, eiders received control, low exposure (20 ppm Se), and high exposure (60 ppm Se) diets. One duck in the high exposure group in Study 2 died after 36 days. Remaining high exposure ducks in Study 2 and ducks in Study 1 were euthanized after losing 25-30% of their body weight, which occurred after 41 days and 60-78 days, respectively. Body weights did not differ between control and low exposure ducks in Study 2. At the end of Study 1, the mean Se concentration in blood was 32 ppm wet weight (ww). In Study 2, mean blood Se reached 14 ppm ww in the low exposure group and 17 ppm ww in high exposure ducks. Mean Se concentrations in liver were 1252 ppm dry weight (dw) in Study 1, and 351 and 735 ppm dw, respectively, in the low and high exposure groups of Study 2. Oxidative stress was evidenced by Se-associated effects on glutathione metabolism, but not entirely in the same manner as with previous laboratory studies in mallards. In plasma, activities of total and Se-dependent glutathione peroxidase increased with time. As Se concentrations in liver increased, Se-dependent glutathione peroxidase, glutathione reductase, oxidized glutathione, and the ratio of hepatic oxidized to reduced glutathione increased. Total and protein bound sulfhydryl concentrations, reduced glutathione, glutathione-S-transferase, and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase in liver were negatively correlated with Se concentrations in the liver. In Study 2, spleen weights were significantly lower in ducks receiving 60 ppm Se than in those receiving 20 ppm. Gross lesions associated with high Se exposure included emaciation, absence of thymus, loss of nails from digits, and alopecia. Microscopic lesions included severe depletion of lymphoid organs, hepatopathy, and necrosis of feather pulp and feather epithelium. Common eiders fed high levels of Se lost weight and developed lesions similar to findings in experimental mallards, but they accumulated greater Se concentrations in tissues, particularly liver. Field studies have shown that apparently healthy seaducks generally have higher levels of Se in liver than healthy fresh water birds, but lower than the concentrations we found in our study. We conclude common eiders and probably other seaducks have a higher threshold, or adverse effect level, of Se in tissues than fresh water species.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2004

Contaminants in molting long-tailed ducks and nesting common eiders in the Beaufort Sea

In 2000, we collected blood from long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) and blood and eggs from common eiders (Somateria mollissima) at near-shore islands in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and at a reference area east of Prudhoe Bay. Blood was analyzed for trace elements and egg contents were analyzed for trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Except for Se (mean=36.1 ??g/g dry weight (dw) in common eiders and 48.8 ??g/g dw in long-tailed ducks), concentrations of trace elements in blood were low and, although several trace elements differed between areas, they were not consistently higher at one location. In long-tailed ducks, Se in blood was positively correlated with activities of two serum enzymes, suggestive of an adverse effect of increasing Se levels on the liver. Although common eiders had high Se concentrations in their blood, Se residues in eggs were low (mean=2.28 ??g/g dw). Strontium and Ni were higher in eggs near Prudhoe Bay than at the reference area, but none of the other trace elements or organic contaminants in eggs differed between locations. Concentrations of Ca, Sr, Mg, and Ni differed among eggs having no visible development, early-stage embryos, or late-stage embryos. Residues of 4,4???-DDE, cis-nonachlor, dieldrin, hexachlorobenzene, oxychlordane, and trans-nonachlor were found in 100% of the common eider eggs, but at low concentrations (means of 2.35-7.45 ??g/kg wet weight (ww)). The mean total PCB concentration in eggs was 15.12 ??g/kg ww. Of PAHs tested for, residues of 1- and 2-methylnaphthalene and naphthalene were found in 100% of the eggs, at mean concentrations of 0.36-0.89 ??g/kg ww.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Evidence of chromosomal damage in common eiders (Somateria mollissima) from the Baltic Sea

Common eiders nesting in the Baltic Sea are exposed to generally high levels of contaminants including potentially genotoxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorines. Blood samples were collected from eiders at eight sites in the Baltic Sea and two sites in the Beaufort Sea. DNA content variation was estimated using the flow cytometric method, and subsequently utilized as a biomarker of genetic damage. We observed no significant differences in genetic damage among populations within either the Baltic or Beaufort Seas. However, eider populations from the Baltic Sea had significantly elevated estimates of genetic damage compared to populations from the Beaufort Sea.

Baltic Sea, Beaufort Seas↗
USGS2004

Movements of flightless long-tailed ducks during wing molt

We examined the movements of flightless Long-tailed Ducks ( Clangula hyemalis ) during the wing molt in the near-shore lagoons of the Beaufort Sea in Alaska. Estimates of site fidelity during the 21-day flightless period ranged from 1-100%, with considerable variation among locations and within locations among years. There was no effect of low-level experimental disturbance or an underwater seismic survey on site fidelity of molting Long-tailed Ducks. Birds molting along a relatively consistent habitat gradient were more likely to move than those molting in a fragmented habitat. While flocks of birds are consistently observed in the same locations, these data suggest considerable turnover within these aggregations. These results, in conjunction with other studies, suggest that forage is relatively uniformly distributed within lagoons. We conclude that habitat selection by molting Long-tailed Ducks is likely influenced by protection from wind and associated waves.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2003

An adenovirus linked to mortality and disease in long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) in Alaska

An adenovirus was isolated from intestinal samples of two long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) collected during a die-off in the Beaufort Sea off the north coast of Alaska in 2000. The virus was not neutralized by reference antiserum against known group I, II, or III avian adenoviruses and may represent a new serotype. The prevalence of the virus was determined in live-trapped long-tailed ducks at the mortality site and at a reference site 100 km away where no mortality was observed. Prevalence of adenovirus antibodies in serum samples at the mortality site was 86% compared to 10% at the reference site. Furthermore, 50% of cloacal swabs collected at the mortality site and only 7% of swabs from the reference site were positive for adenoviruses. In 2001, no mortality was observed at either of the study areas, and virus prevalence in both serum and cloacal samples was low, providing further evidence that the adenovirus was linked to the mortality event in 2000. The virus was used to infect long-tailed ducks under experimental conditions and resulted in lesions previously described for avian adenovirus infections and similar to those observed in long-tailed duck carcasses from the Beaufort Sea. The status of long-tailed ducks has recently become a concern in Alaska due to precipitous declines in breeding populations there since the mid-1970s. Our findings suggest that the newly isolated adenovirus is a disease agent and source of mortality in long-tailed ducks, and thus could be a contributing factor in population declines.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Population structure of Pacific Common Eiders breeding in Alaska

We used satellite telemetry to study the migration routes and wintering areas of two allopatric breeding populations of Pacific Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) in Alaska: the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and the western Beaufort Sea coast. Only 6% (2 of 36) of females wintered within the wintering area of the other breeding population. Both breeding populations wintered in the closest available ice-free habitat, perhaps to minimize migratory distance. Two Beaufort Sea females wintered in areas used by Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta females, implying potential gene flow among breeding areas. Yet, we conclude that these two populations are largely geographically isolated throughout the annual cycle and the environmental factors influencing survival and reproduction likely differ between these groups of birds. Thus, regardless of the potential gene flow among breeding populations, we suggest that birds from these two breeding areas should be managed as separate populations. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2002.

Condor↗
USGS2001

Estimating repeatability of egg size

Measures of repeatability have long been used to assess patterns of variation in egg size within and among females. We compared different analytical approaches for estimating repeatability of egg size of Black Brant. Separate estimates of repeatability for eggs of each clutch size and laying sequence number varied from 0.49 to 0.64. We suggest that using the averaging egg size within clutches results in underestimation of variation within females and thereby overestimates repeatability. We recommend a nested design that partitions egg-size variation within clutches, among clutches within females, and among females. We demonstrate little variation in estimates of repeatability resulting from a nested model controlling for egg laying sequence and a nested model in which we assumed laying sequence was unknown.

The Auk↗
USGS2000

Annual survival and site fidelity of Stellar's Eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

Populations of Steller's eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (±SE) were 0.899 ± 0.032 for females and 0.765 ± 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Modeling bird mortality associated with the M/V Citrus oil spill off St. Paul Island, Alaska

We developed a model to estimate the number of bird carcasses that were likely deposited on the beaches of St. Paul Island, Alaska following the M/V Citrus oil spill in February 1996. Most of the islands beaches were searched on an irregular schedule, resulting in the recovery of 876 King Eider carcasses. A sub-sample of beaches were intensively studied to estimate daily persistence rate and detection probability [Fowler, A.C., Flint, P.L., 1997. Marine Pollution Bulletin]. Using these data, our model predicted that an additional 733±70 King Eider carcasses were not detected during our searches. Therefore, we estimate that at least 1609±70 King Eider carcasses occurred on beaches as a result of the spill. We lacked sufficient sample size to model losses for other species, thus we applied the estimated recovery rate for King Eiders (54%) to other species and estimate a total combined loss of 1765 birds. In addition, 165 birds were captured alive making the total estimated number of birds impacted by the M/V Citrus spill 1930. Given that oiled birds occurred in places on the island which could not be systematically searched combined with the fact that it was unlikely that oiled birds that died at sea would have been recovered during our searches [Flint, P.L., Fowler, A.C., 1998. Marine Pollution Bulletin], our estimate of total mortality associated with the spill should be considered a minimum.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Incubation behavior of Spectacled Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

We studied incubation behavior of Spectacled Eiders ( Somateria fischeri ) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in 1996. We trapped 19 females on their nests and weighed them in early incubation and again at hatch. Average daily weight loss for incubating females was 16.6 ± 1.0 g day -1 , which resulted in a cumulative loss of 26% of body weight throughout incubation. Nest attendance was monitored for a portion of the incubation period using temperature sensing artificial eggs. Incubation constancy averaged 90 ± 1%. Average recess length was 37.1 ± 0.9 min, and nests cooled an average of 4.2 ± 0.1°C during recesses. Recess frequency averaged 2.5 ± 0.1 recesses day -1 , and most recesses (70%) occurred between 10:00 and 22:00. Incubation constancy varied among females, but was not related to changes in body weight or incubation period. There was no influence of ambient temperature on incubation recess length, however most recesses were taken during the warmest part of the day. We found considerable variation among females in patterns of daily incubation constancy, nest cooling, recess frequency, and recess length. It is not clear from our results what factors constrain incubation behavior of Spectacled Eiders, but we suggest that individual females respond to a complex suite of variables.

Condor↗
USGS1999

Patterns of variation in size and composition of Greater Scaup eggs: Are they related?

We studied egg size variation of Greater Scaup ( Aythya marila ) nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1991-1996. Mean egg size was 64.36±0.03 (SE) ml. Egg size did not vary with clutch size or serve as an index of body size. There was less than 2% overlap in total clutch volumes for clutches of different sizes indicating that phenotypic clutch size-egg size trade-offs are not occurring among individuals. At the population level, Greater Scaup have less variation in egg size than other species of waterfowl. The proportion of variation in egg size caused by differences among females was 0.20, caused by differences within females among years was 0.25, and caused by differences within females and years (i.e., clutches) was 0.56. The proportion of egg lipid decreased with increasing egg size while the proportion of egg protein increased with egg size. Thus, Greater Scaup appear to trade-off lipid for protein as egg size increases. The proportion of variation that was due to differences among females in total egg protein was 0.79 and in total egg lipid was 0.49. We conclude that in the absence of a fitness trade-off between clutch size and egg size, selection has reduced among-individual variation in egg size.

Alaska↗