Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

Michael Marshall

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Marshall.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Remote sensing of actual evapotranspiration from croplands

Agriculture accounted for the majority of human water use and for more than 90% of global freshwater consumption during the twentieth century (Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012; Shiklomanov, 2000). Streamflow depletion due to enhanced evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated crops impacts freshwater ecosystems globally (Foley et al., 2005). Water scarcity limits crop production in many arid and semiarid regions, and water is likely to be a key resource limiting food production and food security in the twenty-first century (Foley et al., 2011; Vorosmarty et al., 2000). Despite this, estimates of the location and temporal dynamics of ET from croplands are often uncertain at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Better information on ET can be useful in several applications at a range of spatial scales, including water resources, agronomy, and meteorology (e.g., Rivas and Caselles, 2004). At the scale of irrigation projects, maps of ET can assist with irrigation scheduling and demand assessment. Measurements of ET are required for monitoring plant water requirements, plant growth, and productivity, as well as for irrigation management and deciding when to carry out cultivation procedures (e.g., Consolli et al., 2006; Glenn et al., 2007; Yang et al., 2010).

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Using predictions from multiple anthropogenic threats to estimate future population persistence of an imperiled species

Imperiled species face numerous and diverse anthropogenic threats to their persistence, and wildlife managers charged with making conservation decisions benefit from a sound understanding of how populations, species, and ecosystems will respond to future changes in threats to biodiversity. In southeastern North America, the gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a keystone species in upland ecosystems; however, tortoise populations have declined strongly over the last century, and the species is a candidate for increased protection by the United States federal government under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Here, we sought to support conservation decision making for G. polyphemus by developing a spatially-explicit predictive population model that linked four anthropogenic threats (climate warming, sea-level rise, urbanization, habitat degradation) to demographic vital rates and used the model to estimate future changes in the number of individuals, populations, and metapopulations across the species’ range. Using recent survey data, we projected 457 populations for 80 years into the future under scenarios varying in threat magnitude, management magnitude, and demographic uncertainty. Population projections predicted that the number of individuals, populations, and metapopulations would decline among all simulated scenarios in the next 80 years. Model predictions were more sensitive to variation in adult survival and immigration rates than to variation in threat magnitude. A scenario with decreased habitat management and threat effects from climate warming, sea-level rise, and urbanization predicted geographic variation in persistence probabilities for populations that might result in decreased genetic representation across the species' range. Our results can be used to support conservation listing decisions for the gopher tortoise as part of its federal Species Status Assessment and provide an analytical framework for how to link diverse threats to geographically-varying demographic rates during population viability analyses for wide-ranging imperiled species around the world.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2018

Optimizing a remote sensing production efficiency model for macro-scale GPP and yield estimation in agroecosystems

Earth observation data are increasingly used to provide consistent eco-physiological information over large areas through time. Production efficiency models (PEMs) estimate Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy, which is derived from Earth observation. GPP can be summed over the growing season and adjusted by a crop-specific harvest index to estimate yield. Although PEMs have many advantages over other crop yield models, they are not widely used, because performance is relatively poor. Here, a new PEM is presented that addresses deficiencies for macro-scale application: Production Efficiency Model Optimized for Crops (PEMOC). It was developed by optimizing functions from the literature with GPP estimated by eddy covariance flux towers in the United States. The model was evaluated using newly developed Earth observation products and county-level yield statistics for major crops. PEMOC generally performed better at the field and county level than another commonly used PEM, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer GPP (MOD17). PEMOC and MOD17 estimates of GPP had an R 2 and root mean squared error (RMSE) over the growing season of 0.71–0.89 (9.87–17.47 g CO 2 d −1 ) and 0.59–0.83 (6.86–22.20 g CO 2 d −1 ) with flux tower GPP. PEMOC produced R 2 s and RMSE of 0.70 (0.52), 0.60 (0.61), and 0.62 (0.59), while MOD17 produced R 2 s and RMSE of 0.65 (0.57), 0.53 (0.66), and 0.65 (0.57) with corn, soybean, and winter wheat crop yield anomalies. The sample size of rice was small, so yields were compared directly. PEMOC and MOD17 produced R 2 s and RMSE of 0.53 (3.42 t ha −1 ) and 0.40 (4.89 t ha −1 ). The most sizeable model improvements were seen for C 3 and C 4 crops during emergence/senescence and peak season, respectively. These improvements were attributed to C 3 and C 4 partitioning, optimized temperature and moisture constraints, and an evapotranspiration-based soil moisture index.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2018

Crop water productivity estimation with hyperspectral remote sensing

Crop water productivity (CWP) is the ratio of accumulated crop biomass or yield (Y) to the water utilized to produce it, which is typically estimated using transpiration (ET C ). CWP is an important metric to test and monitor water-saving strategies in agroecosystems across the globe. Red and near-infrared broadbands have been used to estimate CWP, because they capture biophysical constraints based on crop-light interaction principles at pixel level (e.g., 30-meter resolution) over large areas through time. Hyperspectral remote sensing, which allows for the more precise measurement of crop-light interactions at higher spectral resolution, should in theory provide higher accuracy in CWP estimation but has been underutilized by the remote sensing community due to computational challenges and lack of availability. In this study, a simple methodology is presented to demonstrate how CWP could be estimated using hyperspectral remote sensing. Due to a lack of hyperspectral data, Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data were used for the demonstration. Landsat is a broadband sensor that provides considerable spectral information for CWP estimation. New bands were identified in the workflow outside the typical Landsat bands used to estimate CWP and its components (Y and ET C ). Landsat bands 1 and 3 were the most effective at estimating CWP and Y with an R 2 of 0.72 (RMSE = 0.50 kg m −3 ) and 0.64 (RMSE = 0.31 kg m −2 ), respectively. All of the bands were poor at estimating ET C , with Landsat bands 1 and 7 being the most highly correlated (R 2 = 0.13, RMSE = 0.08 m). Future work should train models with multiple estimates of CWP and Y over the growing season, while ET C may be better estimated with thermal infrared bands not considered in this study. Finally, studies should also consider estimating CWP categorically, instead of continuously, if the same objectives of testing and monitoring are met.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

A climate trend analysis of Sudan

Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10-20 percent since the mid-1970s. Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10-20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops. The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba. Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan's future food production prospects. In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood. Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

Fact Sheet↗