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Lydia M. Staisch

Publications and source records attributed to Lydia M. Staisch.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

The geologic history of the Chehalis Forearc Basin, Washington State, USA

The Chehalis basin is located between the Cascade arc and the Coast Range in southwest Washington State. It consists of sedimentary and volcanic rocks deposited throughout the Cenozoic and is underlain by the Siletzia terrane, a thick, large igneous province accreted in the Eocene. Here, we constrain evolution of the Chehalis basin depocenter using isochore maps derived from isostatic gravity anomalies, borehole data, and stratigraphy for several time periods: the Eocene (47.6–36.8 Ma), the Oligocene (36.8–20 Ma), and the Neogene (20–0 Ma). Our results suggest that local subsidence is driven by deformation on faults that bound and intersect the basin. We see northward depocenter migration, interpreted as a shift in deformation from the northwest striking Cedar Creek fault to the west striking Doty fault. We interpret these data in terms of the long-term north-south shortening and clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc. During the Eocene, the Cedar Creek fault was preferentially aligned with north-south shortening, but became less active when clockwise rotation brought the Doty fault into east-west alignment with the stress field. Sediment accumulation rates decreased from 196 m/Myr in the Paleogene (∼40–20 Ma) to 27 m/Myr in the Neogene (∼20–0 Ma) as Miocene uplift of the Coast Range limited accommodation space and shifted the depositional environment from marine to fluvial. Our results are consistent with the geologic evolution of the Portland and Tualatin basins to the south and reveal a depositional and structural history uniquely shaped by clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Long-term intermittent connection between the western Snake River Plain and Columbia basin: A two-phased incision history of Hells Canyon

For more than a century, researchers have debated the route of the Snake River across the northern Cordillera and U.S. Pacific Northwest, including the associated incision history of Hells Canyon. Here, we use detrital zircon U-Pb provenance analysis of Miocene strata upstream and downstream of Hells Canyon to constrain the evolution in fluvial pathways over time. Downstream of Hells Canyon, we show that the ca. 10−6 Ma Clarkston Heights gravel was dominantly sourced from the nearby Salmon and Clearwater rivers but also with substantial input from drainages that now flow into the western Snake River Plain. These same western Snake River Plain drainages were contributing to time-equivalent Lake Idaho strata, upstream of Hells Canyon, indicating a Hells Canyon fluvial connection between the western Snake River Plain and Columbia basin before 6 Ma. Results from Lake Idaho strata suggest a two-phased lacustrine history in the western Snake River Plain: Before ca. 6.0 Ma, lake strata were derived from local tributaries, suggesting that the western Snake River Plain was isolated from the modern upper Snake River system. Between ca. 4.3 Ma and 2.2 Ma, the source area expanded to include eastern tributaries in conjunction with migration of high-standing topography of the Yellowstone hotspot. Our results challenge the long-held hypothesis of “capture” of the Snake River through Hells Canyon. Instead, we infer that Hells Canyon was a long-established route for outflow of lakes occupying the western Snake River Plain, possibly intermittently, during a ca. 10−2 Ma phase of slow regional incision, followed by rapid incision in Hells Canyon starting ca. 2 Ma in conjunction with erosion of the topographic barrier impounding Lake Idaho.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2026

Latest Pleistocene to 19th-century earthquakes on bending-moment reverse faults of the Seattle fault zone, Washington

Fault-related folds and their associated secondary faults play a critical yet often underrecognized role in accommodating strain and generating earthquakes in active fold-and-thrust belts. In the Seattle fault zone (SFZ), Washington, USA, we present new paleoseismic, geomorphic, and geophysical evidence for late Pleistocene and Holocene earthquakes on shallow, south-dipping secondary faults—the Lytle Beach and Vasa Park faults—that lie within the hanging wall of the greater SFZ and are on trend with the primary, blind Blakely Harbor fault. Our data show that these structures have ruptured independently, producing localized uplift and deformation at the surface, with the most recent event (RH2) likely occurring in the early nineteenth century. While a temporal overlap between the late Pleistocene RH1 and VP1 earthquakes raises the possibility of a ≥35 km rupture along the Blakely Harbor fault, structural and temporal evidence instead supports independent rupture on individual faults related to folding. We interpret these faults as bending-moment reverse faults that formed within a synclinal hinge zone of the main fault, reflecting mechanical and kinematic influences of the broader fault system. Combined with prior studies, our findings indicate that faulting related to folding dominates the mode of strain release within the SFZ since the late Pleistocene with more frequent earthquake recurrence (∼350 yr) over the past ∼2500 yr.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Structural controls on splay fault rupture dynamics during Cascadia megathrust earthquakes

Great subduction earthquakes ( M w ≥ 8.0) can generate devastating tsunamis by rapidly displacing the seafloor and overlying water column. These potentially tsunamigenic seafloor offsets result from coseismic fault slip and deformation beneath or within the accretionary wedge. The mechanics of these shallow rupture phenomena and their dependence on subduction zone properties remain unresolved, partly due to the sparsity of offshore observations of shallow megathrust earthquake deformation. Here, we analyze how offshore structure influences shallow rupture mechanics and slip partitioning using 3D dynamic earthquake simulations of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) megathrust with and without variably dipping seaward- or landward-vergent splay faults in the wedge that sole into the megathrust. Resulting tradeoffs between splay and megathrust slip reveal structural controls on rupture partitioning, with greater splay slip leading to less shallow megathrust slip updip. Gently dipping and seaward-vergent splays host more slip than those with steeper, landward-vergent splays. To isolate the underlying mechanisms, we compare models with Andersonian and plunging principal stresses. Results suggest distinct static and dynamic processes control the dip- and vergence-dependence of splay rupture: static (mis)alignment relative to far-field tectonic loading favors slip on more optimally oriented, shallowly dipping splay faults. In contrast, dynamic stress interactions of an updip-propagating megathrust rupture front with the free surface and potential branch faults favor forward branching onto seaward-vergent splays and inhibit backward branching onto landward-vergent splays. Resulting seafloor displacements suggest splay fault structure may influence coseismic tsunami source processes, highlighting the importance of dynamically viable rupture scenarios in subduction hazard assessments.

Cascadia subduction zone↗
USGS2025

Using subducting plate motion to constrain Cascadia slab geometry and interface strength

Subduction zones are home to multiple geohazards driven by the evolution of the regional tectonics, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. Past evolution builds the present-day structure of the margin, while the present-day configuration of the system determines the state-of-stress in which individual hazardous events manifest. Regional simulations of subduction zones provide a tool to synthesize the tectonic history of a region and investigate how geologic features lead to variations in the state of stress across the subduction system. However, it is challenging to design regional models that provide a force-balance that is consistent with the large-scale motion of surrounding tectonic plates while also not over-constraining the solution. Here, we present new models for the Cascadia subduction zone that meet these criteria and demonstrate how the motion of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate can be used to determine the along-strike variations in the viscous (long-term) coupling across the plate boundary. All successful models require lower viscous coupling in the northern section of the trench compared to the central and southern sections. However, due to uncertainties in the geometry of the Cascadia slab, we find that there is a trade-off between along-strike variation in viscous coupling and slab shape. Better constraints on the slab shape, and/or use of other observations are needed to resolve this trade-off. The approach presented here provides a framework for further exploring how geologic features in the overriding plate and the properties of the plate boundary region affect the state-of-stress across this and other subduction zones.

Cascadia subduction zone↗
USGS2025

Cave records reveal recent origin of North America’s deepest canyon

We explore how and when Hells Canyon, North America’s deepest river gorge (~2,400 m deep), formed, addressing these fundamental questions first posed by W. Lindgren [ The Gold Belt of the Blue Mountains of Oregon (1901)]. Existing hypotheses about the canyon’s formation and timing of incision remain speculative due to a lack of direct constraints and geomorphic analysis in the canyon. Herein, we combine cosmogenic nuclide dating of cave-bound river deposits, river profile analysis, and numerical modeling to provide the first direct age constraints and systematic analysis of incision processes at work in Hells Canyon. Our study reveals a significant drainage capture triggered rapid incision at ~2.1 ± 1.0 Ma, establishing the Snake River’s modern route into the Columbia River system. The increased drainage area and subsequent increase in stream power resulted in the rapid incision of Hells Canyon and the formation of tributary knickpoints (KPs) that decrease in elevation away from the capture location. Cosmogenic dating of cave deposits indicates incision rates increased from ~0.01 to ~0.16 mm y −1 . Numerical modeling of the stream capture supports these observations, demonstrating how abrupt drainage area increase drives rapid river incision. Our findings from Hells Canyon provide a well-constrained example of how drainage capture can dramatically shape the evolution of a major river gorge.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Geologic map of Scoggins Dam, Henry Hagg Lake, and Scoggins Valley, Washington County, Oregon

New geologic mapping (Wells and others, 2020b) and geophysical mapping (Blakely and others, 2000; McPhee and others, 2014; Wells and others, 2020a) document kilometers of Cenozoic right-lateral offset along the Gales Creek Fault Zone, a major, northwest-striking fault zone forming the boundary between the Tualatin Valley and the Coast Range. The Bureau of Reclamation’s (Reclamation) Scoggins Dam (fig. 1), in the Coast Range foothills west of Forest Grove, Oregon, lies within the Gales Creek Fault Zone as mapped by Wells and others (2020a, 2020b; fig. 2). Active faults of the Gales Creek Fault Zone defined by paleoseismic trenching (Redwine and others, 2017, 2019b, Horst and others, 2018, 2019, 2021, and Wells and others, 2020a) are presently mapped as projecting through the existing dam. The Pacific Northwest Region of Reclamation requested assistance with geologic studies around Scoggins Dam to provide better understanding of fault locations and their activity, which are needed to design a modification of the dam (Maguire, 2019a, b). The scope of this project includes detailed geology of the existing Scoggins Dam site, Henry Hagg Lake, the reservoir behind the dam, and Scoggins Valley downstream of the existing dam, particularly around a potential new dam site, where Scoggins Creek cuts through a narrow gap formed by a resistant felsic tuff bed that crosses the valley.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Turbidite correlation for paleoseismology

Marine turbidite paleoseismology relies on the assumption of synchronous triggering of turbidity currents by earthquake shaking to infer rupture extent and recurrence. Such inference commonly depends on age dating and correlation of the physical stratigraphy of deposits carried by turbidity currents (i.e., turbidites) across great distances. Along the Cascadia subduction zone, which lies offshore the Pacific Northwest, USA, turbidite facies in core photographs, X-ray computed tomography images, and magnetic susceptibility (MS) data exhibit differences in character over relatively short distances, which implies that not all deposits can be correlated with confidence. Thus, subjective correlation based on expected similarity over great distances and weak age constraints does not independently support paleoseismic models. We present a new method for correlating turbidites along the Cascadia margin that can yield a more objective and repeatable stratigraphic framework to underpin earthquake recurrence. We use dynamic time warping to correlate MS logs and measure correlation coefficients of core pairs to evaluate correlation strength. We then compare these measures to a distribution of correlation coefficients of randomly generated turbidite sequences and find that only a small number of core pairs can be correlated more confidently than randomly stacked turbidites. This methodology promises a more robust correlation strategy for future stratigraphic studies.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Sensitivity testing of marine turbidite age estimates along the Cascadia subduction zone

9 earthquakes ruptured the full Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in the past 10 kyr, a hypothesis that relies on concurrent turbidite deposition generated from seismogenic strong ground motion along the ∼1100 km margin. Correlation of marine turbidite deposits is based on petrophysical characteristics and radiocarbon geochronology, the latter of which relies on a series of age corrections and calibrations for marine radiocarbon age and sedimentological parameters. In this work, I isolate several key variables in turbidite age assessment and systematically test how previous assumptions and new calibration curves affect estimated ages, and thus whether geochronologic analyses independently support coeval turbidite deposition. For radiocarbon age calibration, I test the impact of (1) updating global marine reservoir age corrections; (2) updating local marine reservoir age estimates; and (3) selectively applied marine reservoir age excursions. From the calibrated radiocarbon ages, I calculate turbidite age and uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach with a broad range of sedimentation rates and substratal erosion. By simply updating the global marine radiocarbon calibration, individual radiocarbon ages differ from published estimates by several hundred years. Updates to the local reservoir age corrections are minimal because existing data remain limited yet have potential for great impact on turbidite ages. Of the sedimentological parameters tested, sedimentation rate has the largest impact on estimated turbidite age, with individual ages changing up to 500 yr from published estimates. For radiocarbon samples of turbidites previously inferred to correlate, the individual ages typically show increased scatter and overall uncertainty, even for models that only update the global marine reservoir calibration. These results highlight the major age uncertainty associated with current coseismic turbidite age analyses in Cascadia and how independent constraints on local reservoir corrections and sedimentation rate are critical for accurate turbidite age estimates in the Pacific Northwest.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2022

A modern multicentennial record of radiocarbon variability from an exactly dated bivalve chronology at the Tree Nob site (Alaska Coastal Current)

Quantifying the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect, offsets (ΔR), and ΔR variability over time is critical to improving dating estimates of marine samples while also providing a proxy of water mass dynamics. In the northeastern Pacific, where no high-resolution time series of ΔR has yet been established, we sampled radiocarbon ( 14 C) from exactly dated growth increments in a multicentennial chronology of the long-lived bivalve, Pacific geoduck ( Paneopea generosa ) at the Tree Nob site, coastal British Columbia, Canada. Samples were taken at approximately decadal time intervals from 1725 CE to 1920 CE and indicate average ΔR values of 256 ± 22 years (1σ) consistent with existing discrete estimates. Temporal variability in ΔR is small relative to analogous Atlantic records except for an unusually old-water event, 1802–1812. The correlation between ΔR and sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructed from geoduck increment width is weakly significant (r 2 = .29, p = .03), indicating warm water is generally old, when the 1802–1812 interval is excluded. This interval contains the oldest (–2.1σ) anomaly, and that is coincident with the coldest (–2.7σ) anomalies of the temperature reconstruction. An additional 32 14 C values spanning 1952–1980 were detrended using a northeastern Pacific bomb pulse curve. Significant positive correlations were identified between the detrended 14 C data and annual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer SST such that cooler conditions are associated with older water. Thus, 14 C is generally relatively stable with weak, potentially inconsistent associations to climate variables, but capable of infrequent excursions as illustrated by the unusually cold, old-water 1802–1812 interval.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Major reorganization of the Snake River modulated by passage of the Yellowstone Hotspot

The details and mechanisms for Neogene river reorganization in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains have been debated for over a century with key implications for how tectonic and volcanic systems modulate topographic development. To evaluate paleo-drainage networks, we produced an expansive data set and provenance analysis of detrital zircon U-Pb ages from Miocene to Pleistocene fluvial strata along proposed proto-Snake and Columbia River pathways. Statistical comparisons of Miocene-Pliocene detrital zircon spectra do not support previously hypothesized drainage routes of the Snake River. We use detrital zircon unmixing models to test prior Snake River routes against a newly hypothesized route, in which the Snake River circumnavigated the northern Rocky Mountains and entered the Columbia Basin from the northeast prior to incision of Hells Canyon. Our proposed ancestral Snake River route best matches detrital zircon age spectra throughout the region. Furthermore, this northerly Snake River route satisfies and provides context for shifts in the sedimentology and fish faunal assemblages of the western Snake River Plain and Columbia Basin through Miocene−Pliocene time. We posit that eastward migration of the Yellowstone Hotspot and its effect on thermally induced buoyancy and topographic uplift, coupled with volcanic densification of the eastern Snake River Plain lithosphere, are the primary mechanisms for drainage reorganization and that the eastern and western Snake River Plain were isolated from one another until the early Pliocene. Following this basin integration, the substantial increase in drainage area to the western Snake River Plain likely overtopped a bedrock threshold that previously contained Lake Idaho, which led to incision of Hells Canyon and establishment of the modern Snake and Columbia River drainage network.

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Oregon,↗
USGS2021

Arc versus river: The geology of the Columbia River Gorge

The Columbia River Gorge is the Columbia River’s long-held yet evolving passage through the volcanic arc of the Cascade Range. The globally unique setting of a continental-scale river bisecting an active volcanic arc at the leading edge of a major plate boundary creates a remarkable setting where dynamic volcanic and tectonic processes interact with diverse and energetic fluvial processes. This three-day field trip explores several elements of the gorge and its remarkable geologic history—cast here as a contest between regional tectonic and volcanic processes building and displacing landscapes, and the relentless power of the Columbia River striving to maintain a smooth passage to the sea.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Toward an integrative geological and geophysical view of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact. Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

The Cenozoic evolution of crustal shortening and left‐lateral shear in the central East Kunlun Shan: Implications for the uplift history of the Tibetan Plateau

The timing of crustal shortening and strike‐slip faulting along the East Kunlun Shan provides insight into the history of surface uplift and may constrain the time at which the Tibetan Plateau reached high elevations. We investigate a series of extensional basins and restraining bends along the Xidatan strand of the Kunlun strike‐slip fault, which provide an ideal setting to unravel the tectonic history of the northern plateau margin. We present new apatite (U‐Th)/He, apatite fission track, and zircon (U‐Th)/He ages and QTQt thermal modeling, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar fault gouge dating, and structural mapping from the central East Kunlun Shan. Our data suggest that the East Kunlun Shan experienced slow to negligible exhumation until late Cretaceous time, followed by an increase in rate by 65–50 Ma. Along with a ~47 Ma fault gouge age, we posit that the Paleocene–early Eocene was a time of crustal shortening along the northern plateau. Rapid exhumation along transpressional portions of the Xidatan fault initiated by 23–20 Ma, which we interpret as the local onset of strike‐slip faulting. An early Miocene transition from north‐south crustal shortening to left‐lateral shear along the East Kunlun Shan, the onset of normal and strike‐slip faulting in central and southern Tibet by 18 Ma, and lower crustal flow in eastern Tibet by 13 Ma suggest the establishment of orogen‐wide east‐west oriented extension and extrusion by the middle Miocene. The plateau‐wide shift in stress accommodation implies that high gravitational potential energy, and likely high elevation, was attained by the middle Miocene.

Tectonics↗