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Lorraine E. Flint

Publications and source records attributed to Lorraine E. Flint.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine‐scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate‐change impacts than coarse‐scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse‐scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000‐fold range of spatial scales (0.008–16 km 2 ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate‐data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine‐ and coarse‐scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net habitat area when predictive maps form the basis of conservation decision making.

California↗
USGS2012

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

Introduction Evaluating the environmental impacts of climate change on water resources and biological components of the landscape is an integral part of hydrologic and ecological investigations, and the resultant land and resource management in the twenty-first century. Impacts of both climate and simulated hydrologic parameters on ecological processes are relevant at scales that reflect the heterogeneity and complexity of landscapes. At present, simulations of climate change available from global climate models [GCMs] require downscaling for hydrologic or ecological applications. Methods Using statistically downscaled future climate projections developed using constructed analogues, a methodology was developed to further downscale the projections spatially using a gradient-inverse-distance-squared approach for application to hydrologic modeling at 270-m spatial resolution. Results This paper illustrates a methodology to downscale and bias-correct national GCMs to subkilometer scales that are applicable to fine-scale environmental processes. Four scenarios were chosen to bracket the range of future emissions put forth by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fine-scale applications of downscaled datasets of ecological and hydrologic correlations to variation in climate are illustrated. Conclusions The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

Ecological Processes↗
USGS2012

Estimation of stream temperature in support of fish production modeling under future climates in the Klamath River Basin

Stream temperature estimates under future climatic conditions were needed in support of fish production modeling for evaluation of effects of dam removal in the Klamath River Basin. To allow for the persistence of the Klamath River salmon fishery, an upcoming Secretarial Determination in 2012 will review potential changes in water quality and stream temperature to assess alternative scenarios, including dam removal. Daily stream temperature models were developed by using a regression model approach with simulated net solar radiation, vapor density deficit calculated on the basis of air temperature, and mean daily air temperature. Models were calibrated for 6 streams in the Lower, and 18 streams in the Upper, Klamath Basin by using measured stream temperatures for 1999-2008. The standard error of the y-estimate for the estimation of stream temperature for the 24 streams ranged from 0.36 to 1.64°C, with an average error of 1.12°C for all streams. The regression models were then used with projected air temperatures to estimate future stream temperatures for 2010-99. Although the mean change from the baseline historical period of 1950-99 to the projected future period of 2070-99 is only 1.2°C, it ranges from 3.4°C for the Shasta River to no change for Fall Creek and Trout Creek. Variability is also evident in the future with a mean change in temperature for all streams from the baseline period to the projected period of 2070-99 of only 1°C, while the range in stream temperature change is from 0 to 2.1°C. The baseline period, 1950-99, to which the air temperature projections were corrected, established the starting point for the projected changes in air temperature. The average measured daily air temperature for the calibration period 1999-2008, however, was found to be as much as 2.3°C higher than baseline for some rivers, indicating that warming conditions have already occurred in many areas of the Klamath River Basin, and that the stream temperature projections for the 21st century could be underestimating the actual change.

Oregon;California↗
USGS2012

Geohydrology of Big Bear Valley, California: phase 1--geologic framework, recharge, and preliminary assessment of the source and age of groundwater

The Big Bear Valley, located in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, has increased in population in recent years. Most of the water supply for the area is pumped from the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This study was conducted to better understand the thickness and structure of the groundwater basin in order to estimate the quantity and distribution of natural recharge to Big Bear Valley. A gravity survey was used to estimate the thickness of the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This determined that the alluvial deposits reach a maximum thickness of 1,500 to 2,000 feet beneath the center of Big Bear Lake and the area between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, and decrease to less than 500 feet thick beneath the eastern end of Big Bear Lake. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) was used to measure pumping-induced land subsidence and to locate structures, such as faults, that could affect groundwater movement. The measurements indicated small amounts of land deformation (uplift and subsidence) in the area between Big Bear Lake and Baldwin Lake, the area near the city of Big Bear Lake, and the area near Sugarloaf, California. Both the gravity and InSAR measurements indicated the possible presence of subsurface faults in subbasins between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, but additional data are required for confirmation. The distribution and quantity of groundwater recharge in the area were evaluated by using a regional water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) and a daily rainfall-runoff model (INFILv3). The BCM calculated spatially distributed potential recharge in the study area of approximately 12,700 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of potential in-place recharge and 30,800 acre-ft/yr of potential runoff. Using the assumption that only 10 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, this approach indicated there is approximately 15,800 acre-ft/yr of total recharge in Big Bear Valley. The INFILv3 model was modified for this study to include a perched zone beneath the root zone to better simulate lateral seepage and recharge in the shallow subsurface in mountainous terrain. The climate input used in the INFILv3 model was developed by using daily climate data from 84 National Climatic Data Center stations and published Parameter Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) average monthly precipitation maps to match the drier average monthly precipitation measured in the Baldwin Lake drainage basin. This model resulted in a good representation of localized rain-shadow effects and calibrated well to measured lake volumes at Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes. The simulated average annual recharge was about 5,480 acre-ft/yr in the Big Bear study area, with about 2,800 acre-ft/yr in the Big Bear Lake surface-water drainage basin and about 2,680 acre-ft/yr in the Baldwin Lake surface-water drainage basin. One spring and eight wells were sampled and analyzed for chemical and isotopic data in 2005 and 2006 to determine if isotopic techniques could be used to assess the sources and ages of groundwater in the Big Bear Valley. This approach showed that the predominant source of recharge to the Big Bear Valley is winter precipitation falling on the surrounding mountains. The tritium and uncorrected carbon-14 ages of samples collected from wells for this study indicated that the groundwater basin contains water of different ages, ranging from modern to about 17,200-years old.The results of these investigations provide an understanding of the lateral and vertical extent of the groundwater basin, the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, the processes responsible for the recharge, and the source and age of groundwater in the groundwater basin. Although the studies do not provide an understanding of the detailed water-bearing properties necessary to determine the groundwater availability of the basin, they do provide a framework for the future development of a groundwater model that would help to improve the understanding of the potential hydrologic effects of water-management alternatives in Big Bear Valley.

California↗
USGS2012

Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the relationship between soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration pressures, climatic water deficit integrates the effects of increasing temperature and varying precipitation on basin conditions. At the fine-scale used for these analyses, this variable is an effective indicator of the areas in the landscape that are the most resilient or vulnerable to projected changes. These analyses have shown that regardless of the direction of precipitation change, climatic water deficit is projected to increase, which implies greater water demand to maintain current agricultural resources or land cover. Fine-scale modeling provides a spatially distributed view of locations in the landscape that could prove to be resilient to climatic changes in contrast to locations where vegetation is currently living on the edge of its present-day bioclimatic distribution and, therefore, is more likely to perish or shift to other dominant species under future warming. This type of modeling and the associated analyses provide a useful means for greater understanding of water and land resources, which can lead to better resource management and planning.

California↗
USGS2011

Application of a watershed model (HSPF) for evaluating sources and transport of pathogen indicators in the Chino Basin drainage area, San Bernardino County, California

A watershed model using Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was developed for the urbanized Chino Basin in southern California to simulate the transport of pathogen indicator bacteria, evaluate the flow-component and land-use contributions to bacteria contamination and water-quality degradation throughout the basin, and develop a better understanding of the potential effects of climate and land-use change on water quality. The calibration of the model for indicator bacteria was supported by historical data collected before this study and by samples collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from targeted land-use areas during storms in water-year 2004. The model was successfully calibrated for streamflow at 5 gage locations representing the Chino Creek and Mill Creek drainages. Although representing pathogens as dissolved constituents limits the model's ability to simulate the transport of pathogen indicator bacteria, the bacteria concentrations measured over the period 1998-2004 were well represented by the simulated concentrations for most locations. Hourly concentrations were more difficult to predict because of high variability in measured bacteria concentrations. In general, model simulations indicated that the residential and commercial land uses were the dominant sources for most of the pathogen indicator bacteria during low streamflows. However, simulations indicated that land used for intensive livestock (dairies and feedlots) and mixed agriculture contributed the most bacteria during storms. The calibrated model was used to evaluate how various land use, air temperature, and precipitation scenarios would affect flow and transport of bacteria. Results indicated that snow pack formation and melt were sensitive to changes in air temperature in the northern, mountainous part of the Chino Basin, causing the timing and magnitude of streamflow to shift in the natural drainages and impact the urbanized areas of the central Chino Basin. The relation between bacteria concentrations and air temperature was more complicated, and did not substantially affect the quality of water discharging from the Chino Basin into the Santa Ana River. Changes in precipitation had a greater basin-wide affect on bacteria concentrations than changes in air temperature, and varied according to location. Drainages representing natural conditions had a decrease in bacteria concentrations in correlation with an increase in precipitation, whereas drainages in the central and southern part of the Chino Basin had an increase in bacteria concentrations. Drier climate conditions tended to result in higher sensitivity of simulated bacteria concentrations to changes in precipitation. Simulated bacteria concentrations in wetter climates were usually less sensitive to changes in precipitation because bacteria transport becomes more dependent on the land-use specified bacteria loading rates and the storage limits. Bacteria contamination from impervious-area runoff is affected to a greater degree by drier climates, whereas contamination from pervious-area runoff is affected to a greater degree by wetter climates. Model results indicated that the relation between precipitation, runoff, and bacteria contamination is complicated because after the initial bacteria washoff and transport from the land surfaces during the beginning of a storm period, subsequent runoff has fewer bacteria available for washoff, which then dilutes the concentrations of bacteria in the downstream reach. It was illustrated that pathogen indicator bacteria transport depends most significantly on the relation of imperviousness to runoff, which controls the frequency, and often the magnitude, of transport, and on the contribution of higher bacteria loading rates used for pervious land areas, especially intensive feedlots, to the infrequent, but very high, peaks of bacteria contamination. The indicator bacteria transport model for the Chino Basin was based on the assumption that no

California↗
USGS2011

Analysis of methods to determine storage capacity of, and sedimentation in, Loch Lomond Reservoir, Santa Cruz County, California, 2009

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Santa Cruz, conducted bathymetric and topographic surveys to determine the water storage capacity of, and the loss of capacity owing to sedimentation in, Loch Lomond Reservoir in Santa Cruz County, California. The topographic survey was done as a supplement to the bathymetric survey to obtain information about temporal changes in the upper reach of the reservoir where the water is shallow or the reservoir may be dry, as well as to obtain information about shoreline changes throughout the reservoir. Results of a combined bathymetric and topographic survey using a new, state-of-the-art method with advanced instrument technology indicate that the maximum storage capacity of the reservoir at the spillway altitude of 577.5 feet (National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929) was 8,646 ±85 acre-feet in March 2009, with a confidence level of 99 percent. This new method is a combination of bathymetric scanning using multibeam-sidescan sonar, and topographic surveying using laser scanning (LiDAR), which produced a 1.64-foot-resolution grid with altitudes to 0.3-foot resolution and an estimate of total water storage capacity at a 99-percent confidence level. Because the volume of sedimentation in a reservoir is considered equal to the decrease in water-storage capacity, sedimentation in Loch Lomond Reservoir was determined by estimating the change in storage capacity by comparing the reservoir bed surface defined in the March 2009 survey with a revision of the reservoir bed surface determined in a previous investigation in November 1998. This revised reservoir-bed surface was defined by combining altitude data from the 1998 survey with new data collected during the current (2009) investigation to fill gaps in the 1998 data. Limitations that determine the accuracy of estimates of changes in the volume of sedimentation from that estimated in each of the four previous investigations (1960, 1971, 1982, and 1998) are a result of the limitations of the survey equipment and data-processing methods used. Previously used and new methods were compared to determine the recent (1998-2009) change in storage capacity and the most accurate and cost-effective means to define the reservoir bed surface so that results can be easily replicated in future surveys. Results of this investigation indicate that the advanced method used in the 2009 survey accurately captures the features of the wetted reservoir surface as well as features along the shoreline that affect the storage capacity calculations. Because the bathymetric and topographic data are referenced to a datum, the results can be easily replicated or compared with future results. Comparison of the 2009 reservoir-bed surface with the surface defined in 1998 indicates that sedimentation is occurring throughout the reservoir. About 320 acre-feet of sedimentation has occurred since 1998, as determined by comparing the revised 1998 reservoir-bed surface, with an associated maximum reservoir storage capacity of 8,965 acre-feet, to the 2009 reservoir bed surface, with an associated maximum capacity of 8,646 acre-feet. This sedimentation is more than 3 percent of the total storage capacity that was calculated on the basis of the results of the 1998 bathymetric investigation.

California↗
USGS2010

Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Summary Report

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot project (GBILM) was one of four regional pilots to implement the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Thrust on Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) whose goal was to observe, understand, and predict landscape change and its implications on natural resources at multiple spatial and temporal scales and address priority natural resource management and policy issues. The Great Basin is undergoing rapid environmental change stemming from interactions among global climate trends, increasing human populations, expanding and accelerating land and water uses, invasive species, and altered fire regimes. GBLIM tested concepts and developed tools to store and analyze monitoring data, understand change at multiple scales, and forecast landscape change. The GBILM endeavored to develop and test a landscape-level monitoring approach in the Great Basin that integrates USGS disciplines, addresses priority management questions, catalogs and uses existing monitoring data, evaluates change at multiple scales, and contributes to development of regional monitoring strategies. GBILM functioned as an integrative team from 2005 to 2010, producing more than 35 science and data management products that addressed pressing ecosystem drivers and resource management agency needs in the region. This report summarizes the approaches and methods of this interdisciplinary effort, identifies and describes the products generated, and provides lessons learned during the project.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change

Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted.

California↗
USGS2007

Geophysical Methods for Investigating Ground-Water Recharge

While numerical modeling has revolutionized our understanding of basin-scale hydrologic processes, such models rely almost exclusively on traditional measurements?rainfall, streamflow, and water-table elevations?for calibration and testing. Model calibration provides initial estimates of ground-water recharge. Calibrated models are important yet crude tools for addressing questions about the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge. An inverse approach to recharge estimation is taken of necessity, due to inherent difficulties in making direct measurements of flow across the water table. Difficulties arise because recharging fluxes are typically small, even in humid regions, and because the location of the water table changes with time. Deep water tables in arid and semiarid regions make recharge monitoring especially difficult. Nevertheless, recharge monitoring must advance in order to improve assessments of ground-water recharge. Improved characterization of basin-scale recharge is critical for informed water-resources management. Difficulties in directly measuring recharge have prompted many efforts to develop indirect methods. The mass-balance approach of estimating recharge as the residual of generally much larger terms has persisted despite the use of increasing complex and finely gridded large-scale hydrologic models. Geophysical data pertaining to recharge rates, timing, and patterns have the potential to substantially improve modeling efforts by providing information on boundary conditions, by constraining model inputs, by testing simplifying assumptions, and by identifying the spatial and temporal resolutions needed to predict recharge to a specified tolerance in space and in time. Moreover, under certain conditions, geophysical measurements can yield direct estimates of recharge rates or changes in water storage, largely eliminating the need for indirect measures of recharge. This appendix presents an overview of physically based, geophysical methods that are currently available or under development for recharge monitoring. The material is written primarily for hydrogeologists. Uses of geophysical methods for improving recharge monitoring are explored through brief discussions and case studies. The intent is to indicate how geophysical methods can be used effectively in studying recharge processes and quantifying recharge. As such, the material constructs a framework for matching the strengths of individual geophysical methods with the manners in which they can be applied for hydrologic analyses. The appendix is organized in three sections. First, the key hydrologic parameters necessary to determine the rate, timing, and patterns of recharge are identified. Second, the basic operating principals of the relevant geophysical methods are discussed. Methods are grouped by the physical property that they measure directly. Each measured property is related to one or more of the key hydrologic properties for recharge monitoring. Third, the emerging conceptual framework for applying geophysics to recharge monitoring is presented. Examples of the application of selected geophysical methods to recharge monitoring are presented in nine case studies. These studies illustrate hydrogeophysical applications under a wide range of conditions and measurement scales, which vary from tenths of a meter to hundreds of meters. The case studies include practice-proven as well as emerging applications of geophysical methods to recharge monitoring.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2007

Regional analysis of ground-water recharge

A modeling analysis of runoff and ground-water recharge for the arid and semiarid southwestern United States was performed to investigate the interactions of climate and other controlling factors and to place the eight study-site investigations into a regional context. A distributed-parameter water-balance model (the Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) was used in the analysis. Data requirements of the BCM included digital representations of topography, soils, geology, and vegetation, together with monthly time-series of precipitation and air-temperature data. Time-series of potential evapotranspiration were generated by using a submodel for solar radiation, taking into account topographic shading, cloudiness, and vegetation density. Snowpack accumulation and melting were modeled using precipitation and air-temperature data. Amounts of water available for runoff and ground-water recharge were calculated on the basis of water-budget considerations by using measured- and generated-meteorologic time series together with estimates of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil geologic units. Calculations were made on a computational grid with a horizontal resolution of about 270 meters for the entire 1,033,840 square-kilometer study area. The modeling analysis was composed of 194 basins, including the eight basins containing ground-water recharge-site investigations. For each grid cell, the BCM computed monthly values of potential evapotranspiration, soil-water storage, in-place ground-water recharge, and runoff (potential stream flow). A fixed percentage of runoff was assumed to become recharge beneath channels operating at a finer resolution than the computational grid of the BCM. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1941 to 2004 were used to explore climatic variability in runoff and ground-water recharge. The selected approach provided a framework for classifying study-site basins with respect to climate and dominant recharge processes. The average climate for all 194 basins ranged from hyperarid to humid, with arid and semiarid basins predominating (fig. 6, chapter A, this volume). Four of the 194 basins had an aridity index of dry subhumid; two of the basins were humid. Of the eight recharge-study sites, six were in semiarid basins, and two were in arid basins. Average-annual potential evapotranspiration showed a regional gradient from less than 1 m/yr in the northeastern part of the study area to more than 2 m/yr in the southwestern part of the study area. Average-annual precipitation was lowest in the two arid-site basins and highest in the two study-site basins in southern Arizona. The relative amount of runoff to in-place recharge varied throughout the study area, reflecting differences primarily in soil water-holding capacity, saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil materials, and snowpack dynamics. Climatic forcing expressed in El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices strongly influenced the generation of precipitation throughout the study area. Positive values of both indices correlated with the highest amounts of runoff and ground-water recharge.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2007

Application of the Basin Characterization Model to Estimate In-Place Recharge and Runoff Potential in the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

A regional-scale water-balance model was used to estimate recharge and runoff potential and support U.S. Geological Survey efforts to develop a better understanding of water availability for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study in White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah. The water-balance model, or Basin Characterization Model (BCM), was used to estimate regional ground-water recharge for the 13 hydrographic areas in the study area. The BCM calculates recharge by using a distributed-parameter, water-balance method and monthly climatic boundary conditions. The BCM requires geographic information system coverages of soil, geology, and topographic information with monthly time-varying climatic conditions of air temperature and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are distributed spatially with process models. When combined with surface properties of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of bedrock and alluvium, the potential water available for in-place recharge and runoff is calculated using monthly time steps using a grid scale of 866 feet (270 meters). The BCM was used with monthly climatic inputs from 1970 to 2004, and results were averaged to provide an estimate of the average annual recharge for the BARCAS study area. The model estimates 526,000 acre-feet of potential in-place recharge and approximately 398,000 acre-feet of potential runoff. Assuming 15 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, the model estimates average annual ground-water recharge for the BARCAS area of about 586,000 acre-feet. When precipitation is extrapolated to the long-term climatic record (1895-2006), average annual recharge is estimated to be 530,000 acre-feet, or about 9 percent less than the recharge estimated for 1970-2004.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2006

Characterization of unsaturated zone hydrogeologic units using matrix properties and depositional history in a complex volcanic environment

Characterization of the physical and unsaturated hydrologic properties of subsurface materials is necessary to calculate flow and transport for land use practices and to evaluate subsurface processes such as perched water or lateral diversion of water, which are influenced by features such as faults, fractures, and abrupt changes in lithology. Input for numerical flow models typically includes parameters that describe hydrologic properties and the initial and boundary conditions for all materials in the unsaturated zone, such as bulk density, porosity, and particle density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, moisture-retention characteristics, and field water content. We describe an approach for systematically evaluating the site features that contribute to water flow, using physical and hydraulic data collected at the laboratory scale, to provide a representative set of physical and hydraulic parameters for numerically calculating flow of water through the materials at a site. An example case study from analyses done for the heterogeneous, layered, volcanic rocks at Yucca Mountain is presented, but the general approach for parameterization could be applied at any site where depositional processes follow deterministic patterns. Hydrogeologic units at this site were defined using (i) a database developed from 5320 rock samples collected from the coring of 23 shallow (<100 m) and 10 deep (500–1000 m) boreholes, (ii) lithostratigraphic boundaries and corresponding relations to porosity, (iii) transition zones with pronounced changes in properties over short vertical distances, (iv) characterization of the influence of mineral alteration on hydrologic properties such as permeability and moisture-retention characteristics, and (v) a statistical analysis to evaluate where boundaries should be adjusted to minimize the variance within layers. Model parameters developed in this study, and the relation of flow properties to porosity, can be used to produce detailed and accurate representations of the core-scale hydrologic processes ongoing at Yucca Mountain.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2006

Use of sediment rating curves and optical backscatter data to characterize sediment transport in the Upper Yuba River watershed, California, 2001-03

Sediment transport in the upper Yuba River watershed, California, was evaluated from October 2001 through September 2003. This report presents results of a three-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Ecosystem Restoration Program of the California Bay-Delta Authority and the California Resources Agency. Streamflow and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) samples were collected at four gaging stations; however, this report focuses on sediment transport at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and the South Yuba River (11417500) gaging stations. Seasonal suspended-sediment rating curves were developed using a group-average method and non-linear least-squares regression. Bed-load transport relations were used to develop bed-load rating curves, and bed-load measurements were collected to assess the accuracy of these curves. Annual suspended-sediment loads estimated using seasonal SSC rating curves were compared with previously published annual loads estimated using the Graphical Constituent Loading Analysis System (GCLAS). The percent difference ranged from -85 percent to +54 percent and averaged -7.5 percent. During water year 2003 optical backscatter sensors (OBS) were installed to assess event-based suspended-sediment transport. Event-based suspended-sediment loads calculated using seasonal SSC rating curves were compared with loads calculated using calibrated OBS output. The percent difference ranged from +50 percent to -369 percent and averaged -79 percent. The estimated average annual sediment yield at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage (5 tons/mi2) was significantly lower than that estimated at the South Yuba River (11417500) gage (14 tons/mi2). In both rivers, bed load represented 1 percent or less of the total annual load throughout the project period. Suspended sediment at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and South Yuba River (11417500) gages was typically greater than 85 percent silt and clay during water year 2003, and sand concentrations at the South Yuba River (11417500) gage were typically higher than those at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage for a given streamflow throughout the three year project period. Factors contributing to differences in sediment loads and grain-size distributions at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and South Yuba River (11417500) gages include contributing drainage area, flow diversions, and deposition of bed-material-sized sediment in reservoirs upstream of the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage. Owing to its larger drainage area, higher flows, and absence of man-made structures that restrict sediment movement in the lower basin, the South Yuba River transports a greater and coarser sediment load.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Conceptual model of sediment processes in the upper Yuba River watershed, Sierra Nevada, CA

This study examines the development of a conceptual model of sediment processes in the upper Yuba River watershed; and we hypothesize how components of the conceptual model may be spatially distributed using a geographical information system (GIS). The conceptual model illustrates key processes controlling sediment dynamics in the upper Yuba River watershed and was tested and revised using field measurements, aerial photography, and low elevation videography. Field reconnaissance included mass wasting and channel storage inventories, assessment of annual channel change in upland tributaries, and evaluation of the relative importance of sediment sources and transport processes. Hillslope erosion rates throughout the study area are relatively low when compared to more rapidly eroding landscapes such as the Pacific Northwest and notable hillslope sediment sources include highly erodible andesitic mudflows, serpentinized ultramafics, and unvegetated hydraulic mine pits. Mass wasting dominates surface erosion on the hillslopes; however, erosion of stored channel sediment is the primary contributor to annual sediment yield. We used GIS to spatially distribute the components of the conceptual model and created hillslope erosion potential and channel storage models. The GIS models exemplify the conceptual model in that landscapes with low potential evapotranspiration, sparse vegetation, steep slopes, erodible geology and soils, and high road densities display the greatest hillslope erosion potential and channel storage increases with increasing stream order. In-channel storage in upland tributaries impacted by hydraulic mining is an exception. Reworking of stored hydraulic mining sediment in low-order tributaries continues to elevate upper Yuba River sediment yields. Finally, we propose that spatially distributing the components of a conceptual model in a GIS framework provides a guide for developing more detailed sediment budgets or numerical models making it an inexpensive way to develop a roadmap for understanding sediment dynamics at a watershed scale.

Geomorphology↗