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Laura A. Brandt

Publications and source records attributed to Laura A. Brandt.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Comparing species distribution models constructed with different subsets of environmental predictors

Aim To assess the usefulness of combining climate predictors with additional types of environmental predictors in species distribution models for range-restricted species, using common correlative species distribution modelling approaches. Location Florida, USA Methods We used five different algorithms to create distribution models for 14 vertebrate species, using seven different predictor sets: two with bioclimate predictors only, and five ‘combination’ models using bioclimate predictors plus ‘additional’ predictors from groups representing: human influence, land cover, extreme weather or noise (spatially random data).We use a linear mixed-model approach to analyse the effects of predictor set and algorithm on model accuracy, variable importance scores and spatial predictions. Results Regardless of modelling algorithm, no one predictor set produced significantly more accurate models than all others, though models including human influence predictors were the only ones with significantly higher accuracy than climate-only models. Climate predictors had consistently higher variable importance scores than additional predictors in combination models, though there was variation related to predictor type and algorithm. While spatial predictions varied moderately between predictor sets, discrepancies were significantly greater between modelling algorithms than between predictor sets. Furthermore, there were no differences in the level of agreement between binary ‘presence–absence’ maps and independent species range maps related to the predictor set used. Main conclusions Our results indicate that additional predictors have relatively minor effects on the accuracy of climate-based species distribution models and minor to moderate effects on spatial predictions. We suggest that implementing species distribution models with only climate predictors may provide an effective and efficient approach for initial assessments of environmental suitability.

Florida↗
USGS2014

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2013

Reconstructing vegetation response to altered hydrology and its use for restoration, Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida

We present reconstructed hydrologic and vegetation trends of the last three centuries across the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida in order to understand the effects of 20th century water management. We analyzed pollen assemblages from cores at marsh sites along three transects to document vegetation and infer hydroperiod and water depth both before and after human alteration of Everglades hydrology. In the northern and central part of the Refuge, late Holocene water levels were higher and hydroperiods longer than the last 100 years. Post-1950 was a time of several different water management strategies. Pollen assemblages indicate drier conditions post-1950 in the northern and central parts of the Refuge, whereas sites in the southern Refuge are wetter and vegetation turnover is higher. Throughout the Refuge, Sagittaria pollen declines with the onset of water management, and may indicate a loss of greater variation in hydroperiods across years and water depths between seasons. Paleoecological evidence provides clear estimates of the vegetation response to hydrologic change under specific hydrologic regimes.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Use and interpretation of climate envelope models: a practical guide

This guidebook is intended to provide a practical overview of climate envelope modeling for conservation professionals and natural resource managers. The material is intended for people with little background or experience in climate envelope modeling who want to better understand and interpret models developed by others and the results generated by such models, or want to do some modeling themselves. This is not an exhaustive review of climate envelope modeling, but rather a brief introduction to some key concepts in the discipline. Readers interested in a more in-depth treatment of much of the material presented here are referred to an excellent book, Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction by Janet Franklin. Also, a recent review (Araújo & Peterson 2012) provides an excellent, though more technical, discussion of many of the issues dealt with here. Here we treat selected topics from a practical perspective, using minimal jargon to explain and illustrate some of the many issues that one has to be aware of when using climate envelope models. When we do introduce specialized terminology in the guidebook, we bold the term when it is first used; a glossary of these terms is included at the back of the guidebook.

Report↗
USGS2012

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Alabama;Florida;Georgia;Mississippi;South Carolina↗
USGS2012

Use of alligator hole abundance and occupancy rate as indicators for restoration of a human-altered wetland

Use of indicator species as a measure of ecosystem conditions is an established science application in environmental management. Because of its role in shaping wetland systems, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) is one of the ecological indicators for wetland restoration in south Florida, USA. We conducted landscape-level aerial surveys of alligator holes in two different habitats in a wetland where anthropogenic modification of surface hydrology has altered the natural system. Alligator holes were scarcer in an area where modified hydrology caused draining and frequent dry-downs compared to another area that maintains a functional wetland system. Lower abundance of alligator holes indicates lack of alligator activities, lower overall species diversity, and lack of dry-season aquatic refugia for other organisms. The occupancy rate of alligator holes was lower than the current restoration target for the Everglades, and was variable by size class with large size-class alligators predominantly occupying alligator holes. This may indicate unequal size-class distribution, different habitat selection by size classes, or possibly a lack of recruitment. Our study provides pre-restoration baseline information about one indicator species for the Everglades. Success of the restoration can be assessed via effective synthesis of information derived by collective research efforts on the entire suite of selected ecological indicators.

Florida↗
USGS2012

Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?

Climate envelope models are widely used to forecast potential effects of climate change on species distributions. A key issue in climate envelope modeling is the selection of predictor variables that most directly influence species. To determine whether model performance and spatial predictions were related to the selection of predictor variables, we compared models using bioclimate variables with models constructed from monthly climate data for twelve terrestrial vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using two different algorithms (random forests or generalized linear models), and two model selection techniques (using uncorrelated predictors or a subset of user-defined biologically relevant predictor variables). There were no differences in performance between models created with bioclimate or monthly variables, but one metric of model performance was significantly greater using the random forest algorithm compared with generalized linear models. Spatial predictions between maps using bioclimate and monthly variables were very consistent using the random forest algorithm with uncorrelated predictors, whereas we observed greater variability in predictions using generalized linear models.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2012

Body condition of Morelet’s Crocodiles ( Crocodylus moreletii ) from northern Belize

Body condition factors have been used as an indicator of health and well-being of crocodilians. We evaluated body condition of Morelet's Crocodiles ( Crocodylus moreletii ) in northern Belize in relation to biotic (size, sex, and habitat) and abiotic (location, water level, and air temperature) factors. We also tested the hypothesis that high water levels and warm temperatures combine or interact to result in a decrease in body condition. Size class, temperature, and water level explained 20% of the variability in condition of Morelet's Crocodiles in this study. We found that adult crocodiles had higher condition scores than juveniles/subadults but that sex, habitat, and site had no effect. We confirmed our hypothesis that warm temperatures and high water levels interact to decrease body condition. We related body condition of Morelet's Crocodiles to natural fluctuations in air temperatures and water levels in northern Belize, providing baseline conditions for population and ecosystem monitoring.

Journal of Herpetology↗
USGS2012

A national geographic framework for guiding conservation on a landscape scale

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with the global conservation community, has recognized that the conservation challenges of the 21st century far exceed the responsibilities and footprint of any individual agency or program. The ecological effects of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors do not recognize geopolitical boundaries and, as such, demand a national geographic framework to provide structure for cross-jurisdictional and landscape-scale conservation strategies. In 2009, a new map of ecologically based conservation regions in which to organize capacity and implement strategic habitat conservation was developed using rapid prototyping and expert elicitation by an interagency team of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and U.S. Geological Survey scientists and conservation professionals. Incorporating Bird Conservation Regions, Freshwater Ecoregions, and U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic unit codes, the new geographic framework provides a spatial template for building conservation capacity and focusing biological planning and conservation design efforts. The Department of Interior's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives are being organized in these new conservation regions as multi-stakeholder collaborations for improved conservation science and management.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2009

Alligators and crocodiles as indicators for restoration of Everglades ecosystems

Alligators and crocodiles integrate biological impacts of hydrological operations, affecting them at all life stages through three key aspects of Everglades ecology: (1) food webs, (2) diversity and productivity, and (3) freshwater flow. Responses of crocodilians are directly related to suitability of environmental conditions and hydrologic change. Correlations between biological responses and environmental conditions contribute to an understanding of species' status and trends over time. Positive or negative trends of crocodilian populations relative to hydrologic changes permit assessment of positive or negative trends in restoration. The crocodilian indicator uses monitoring parameters (performance measures) that have been shown to be both effective and efficient in tracking trends. The alligator component uses relative density (reported as an encounter rate), body condition, and occupancy rates of alligator holes; the crocodile component uses juvenile growth and hatchling survival. We hypothesize that these parameters are correlated with hydrologic conditions including depth, duration, timing, spatial extent and water quality. Salinity is a critical parameter in estuarine habitats. Assessments of parameters defined for crocodilian performance measures support these hypotheses. Alligators and crocodiles are the charismatic megafauna of the Everglades. They are both keystone and flagship species to which the public can relate. In addition, the parameters used to track trends are easy to understand. They provide answers to the following questions: How has the number of alligators or crocodiles changed? Are the animals fatter or thinner than they should be? Are the animals in the places (in terms of habitat and geography) where they should be? As surely as there is no other Everglades, no other single species defines the Everglades as does the American alligator. The Everglades is the only place in the world where both alligators and crocodiles exist. Crocodilians clearly respond to changes in hydrologic parameters of management interest. These relationships are easy to communicate and mean something to managers, decision makers, and the public. Having crocodilians on the list of system-wide, general indicators provides us with one of the most powerful tools we have to communicate progress of ecosystem restoration in Greater Everglades ecosystems to diverse audiences.

Florida↗
USGS2000

Patterns of change in tree islands in Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge from 1950 to 1991

Size, shape, orientation, and distribution of tree islands in a remnant of northern Everglades wetland were examined from 1950 and 1991 aerial photography. The objectives were to quantify the patterns of tree islands in Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, to determine if the patterns of tree islands had changed between the two dates, and to relate the tree island patterns to modeled pre- and post-drainage hydrologic patterns. There was considerable variation in the patterns of tree islands spatially and temporally. Changes in the size and shape of tree islands from 1950 to 1991 are consistent with changes in the modeled pre- and post-drainage hydrologic patterns. Photo plots along the edges of the refuge, where hydroperiods are longer and depths deeper than they were historically, show a decrease in tree island size and in overall area of tree islands in the plots. Photo plots in the interior, where hydroperiods are shorter than they were pre-drainage, show an increase in tree island area. Overall, there is a tendency for more tree islands to be irregularly shaped in the 1991 photo plots than in the 1950 plots, a reflection of the loss of water flow, reduction of pulse magnitude, and the ponding of water along the perimeter dikes. This study illustrates the importance of considering long-term changes in hydroperiod, depths, and water flows in the restoration of this area.

Florida↗