Geology topics

Laura A. Brandt

Publications and source records attributed to Laura A. Brandt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Isotopic niche plasticity of American alligators within the southern Everglades

Hydrologic alterations within the Everglades have degraded American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) habitat, reduced prey base, and increased physiological stress. Alligator body condition declined across many management areas from 2000 through 2014, prompting us to investigate the relationship between their intraspecific isotopic niche dynamics and body condition. Alligators within the estuary had a larger niche driven by a wider range in stable carbon isotope ratios than those sampled in freshwater habitats. Spatially, model predictability was higher at the smaller scale, reflecting the variability in basal sources and biochemistry among capture sites. Male niches were often larger than those of females, driven by wider ranges of δ 13 C values, suggesting that they differ in their proportional use of habitats and or resources. However, the similar ranges of δ 15 N values indicated both sexes foraged within the same trophic level. Furthermore, while not significantly different, large alligators often had a larger niche with elevated δ 15 N values compared to medium-sized alligators. Although alligators utilize similar stable carbon and nitrogen isotope pools through time, there was considerable temporal variability. These temporal variations in alligators’ isotopic niche were likely influenced by seasonal hydrologic fluctuations within each site, with their niches often being larger in the spring captures than the fall captures. Alligators’ body condition estimates were correlated with intraspecific niche characteristics, including the mean centroid distance between sexes and the interaction between male and female niche size and overlap, within a site, capture period, and year. The variability in intraspecific niche dynamics, landscape heterogeneity, and dynamic hydrology are considerations for designing sustainable management strategies to conserve and enhance alligator populations within the Everglades landscape.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Natural and anthropogenic factors influencing nesting ecology of the American crocodile in Florida, United States

Nesting ecology of American crocodiles ( Crocodylus acutus ) in Florida has been both positively and negatively influenced by anthropogenic and natural factors since the species was placed on the federally endangered species list in 1975. This includes a shift in nesting sites and an expansion of nesting to anthropogenic habitat. Using a 50-year record of monitoring data (1970-2020), we assessed factors influencing nesting ecology (number of nests, nest morphology, success rate, and habitat use) from a total of 3,013 nests recorded across South Florida. We detected a change in nesting success rate, increasing from 61% in the 1970’s to near 90% since 2010. Our hot spot analysis illustrates that nesting sites in northeastern Florida Bay and Flamingo/Cape Sable (Everglades National Park) were important for American crocodiles. Anthropogenic habitats, such as canals provided vital habitat nesting in areas such as Flamingo/Cape Sable (Everglades National Park), Turkey Point Power Plant, and Crocodile Lake National Wildlife Refuge for the current Florida population. Environmental parameters suspected to affect nesting success have shown an increasing trend over the past 50 years and minimum temperature and rainfall, during the summer season, are correlated with increased nesting success and temporal variation across South Florida. The adaptive capacity that American crocodiles exhibited in Florida gave the species advantages to face changes in climate and landscape over the last 50 years, however, it does not imply that the adaptive capacity of the species to face these changes (evolutionary potential) cannot reach a limit if changes continue. Here, we document C. acutus nesting ecology population responses to ecosystem restoration efforts in Florida; and further demonstrate the value of protecting and restoring habitat to support recovery of listed species.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Hematology and biochemistry reference intervals for American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) in South Florida, USA

We calculated reference intervals for 48 blood parameters from 120 wild American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) in South Florida, US. Although previously reported by others, this study includes additional parameters not yet reported in wild populations. Most previously reported blood parameter values were similar to ours and fell within our reference intervals.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Aerial dispersal of Lygodium microphyllum spores within Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge

Native across the Old World tropics from Africa to Southeast Asia and Australia, Lygodium microphyllum (Cav.) R. Br. (Old World Climbing Fern) is one of the most invasive plant species threatening South Florida ecosystems (Rodgers et al. 2014). This invasive fern was first collected as a naturalized plant in South Florida in the late 1960s (Beckner 1968). Subsequent populations were observed in the late 1970s in both Martin and Palm Beach Counties (Nauman and Austin 1978). In 1989 L. microphyllum was observed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) in the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (LNWR). In 1995, a survey by SFWMD indicated that 12% of LNWR was colonized by L. microphyllum. By 1997 this had increased to 36% (Ferriter 2001). Ten years later, Systematic Reconnaissance Flights conducted over LNWR estimated that 44% of LNWR had sparse (> a single individual tree, shrub or stem to <50%) or dense (>50%) infestations of L. microphyllum

Florida Scientist↗

USGS2021

Hierarchical models improve the use of alligator abundance as an indicator

Indicator species are species which can be monitored as an index to measure the overall health of an ecosystem. Crocodylians have been shown to be good indicators of wetland condition as they respond to changes in hydrology, can be efficiently monitored, and are a key part of ecosystem trophic relationships. Eye shine surveys at night are a standard method used to sample alligators, but because some individuals that are present in a study area may go undetected and the proportion of individuals counted is not constant over time, appropriate modeling is required to convert counts to estimates of abundance. We analyzed 13 years of American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) survey count data from South Florida using an N -mixture model. Alligator abundance estimates were assigned to quartiles that were then represented as color coded categories of red, yellow, or green to provide a straightforward rating of Everglades restoration based on familiar stoplight coloring. These results were then compared to a previously used method in which unadjusted counts of these same data were assigned to color coded quartile categories. Water depth played a major role in the detection probability of alligators and the stoplight colors between the two methods matched 76% of the time. This suggests that the original stoplight score method provided a good overall snapshot of the trends in alligator abundance in the Everglades; however, the hierarchical models estimate abundance and trends of alligator abundance by incorporating detection probability thus providing unbiased estimates of abundance.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Shifts in hatching date of American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida

Globally temperature of marine environments is on the rise and temperature plays an important role in the life-history of reptiles. In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature and average date of hatching for American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) over a 37-year period at two nesting sites, Everglades National Park and Florida Power and Light Turkey Point Power Plant site in southern Florida. Our results indicate that hatch dates are shifting 1.5 days earlier every two years and at half that rate for the Turkey Point site, and with every 1 °C degree increase in temperature, hatching occurs about 10 days earlier in the Everglades and 6 days earlier at Turkey Point. Our results on shifting hatch dates for American crocodiles provide further details about the impacts of temperature change on crocodile life history and suggest that increased temperature may affect their phenology.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Influence of salinity on relative density of American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) in Everglades National Park: Implications for restoration of Everglades ecosystems

The status of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) has long been a matter of concern in Everglades National Park (ENP) due to its classification as a federal and state listed species, its recognition as a flagship species, and its function as an ecosystem indicator. Survival and recovery of American crocodiles has been linked with regional hydrological conditions, especially freshwater flow to estuaries, which affect water levels and salinities. We hypothesize that efforts to restore natural function to Everglades ecosystems by improving water delivery into estuaries within ENP will change salinities and water levels which in turn will affect relative density of crocodiles. Monitoring ecological responses of indicator species, such as crocodiles, with respect to hydrologic change is necessary to evaluate ecosystem responses to restoration projects. Our objectives were to monitor trends in crocodile relative density within ENP and to determine influences of salinity on relative density of crocodiles. We examined count data from 12 years of crocodile spotlight surveys in ENP (2004 to 2015) and used a hierarchical model of relative density that estimated relative density with probability of detection. The mean predicted value for relative density (λ) across all surveys was 2.9 individuals/km (95% CI: 2.0 – 4.2); relative density was estimated to decrease with increases in salinity. Routes in ENP’s Flamingo/Cape Sable area had greater crocodile relative density than routes in the West Lake/Cuthbert Lake area and Northeast Florida Bay areas. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that restored flow and lower salinities will result in an increase in crocodile population size and provide support for the ecosystem management recommendations for crocodiles, which currently are to restore more natural patterns of freshwater flow to Florida Bay. Thus, monitoring relative density of American crocodiles will continue to be an effective indicator of ecological response to ecosystem restoration.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Back to the future: Rebuilding the Everglades

Society values landscapes that are engrained in cultural tradition and have a rich connection with human history. As such, there has been a concerted effort to look at the pristine past and develop plans to move the past into the future. However, bringing the past back is constrained by hysteretic changes, irrevocable damages, and anthropogenic trends that do not reflect past conditions. The scale of the Everglades and its importance to water supply and flood control is such that a full recovery, to past, pre-drainage conditions, is not possible. What is possible? The answer is the federally authorized Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and the first, most significant implementation of the $12 Billion CERP is the $2 Billion Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP). CEPP is our “flux-capacitor” in the DeLorean sports car that generates the ability to go back and forth in time, in the movie series “Back to the Future.” The primary hydrological modeling outputs of CEPP came from a version of the Regional Simulation Model (RSM), developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is the DeLorean vehicle, designed to carry the bags of ecological restoration. Unfortunately, the capacity of this vehicle (i.e., CEPP) is limited, but is it large enough? Will CEPP make a difference? The 20-year RSM simulations (1965 – 1985) without restoration showed nine dry periods when there was no water in the sloughs of Everglades National Park (ENP). When the model was run with CEPP conditions, all of these extreme dry conditions were eliminated. The impact of this was most apparent for fish, especially the size classes that wading birds eat. With our DeLorean (i.e. the RSM) we saw a 60-90% increase in fish density. As one might expect, the birds in our alternative future responded to the fish. The increased volume, flow, and connectivity in the CEPP simulations significantly improved the foraging response of all wading bird species, especially in Water Conservation Area 3 (WCA-3) and ENP. Foraging conditions for an average CEPP year improved by 25-100%. Further downstream, the CEPP simulations showed increased delivery of low nutrient fresh water to the Coastal Everglades and Florida Bay that displaced the relatively P-rich marine water, increased water transparency, and thus decreased algal blooms. However, in a future with accelerating sea levels and estuarine lakes with legacy phosphorus (P), how much more fresh water will be needed to maintain submerged aquatic vegetated habitats? The quest for Everglades Restoration will reach a resource management milestone with the implementation of CEPP. CEPP successfully used a broad suite of hydrological, ecological and societal models to build an acceptable and feasible adaptive management vision of the future. It has been a long and difficult journey, but what we have learned in the process will guide future travelers back in time.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (<40%) between the two methods Despite these differences in variable sets (expert versus statistical), models had high performance metrics (>0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable selection is a useful first step, especially when there is a need to model a large number of species or expert knowledge of the species is limited. Expert input can then be used to refine models that seem unrealistic or for species that experts believe are particularly sensitive to change. It also emphasizes the importance of using multiple models to reduce uncertainty and improve map outputs for conservation planning. Where outputs overlap or show the same direction of change there is greater certainty in the predictions. Areas of disagreement can be used for learning by asking why the models do not agree, and may highlight areas where additional on-the-ground data collection could improve the models.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2016

Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida?

Distributional limits of many tropical species in Florida are ultimately determined by tolerance to low temperature. An unprecedented cold spell during 2–11 January 2010, in South Florida provided an opportunity to compare the responses of tropical American crocodiles with warm-temperate American alligators and to compare the responses of nonnative Burmese pythons with native warm-temperate snakes exposed to prolonged cold temperatures. After the January 2010 cold spell, a record number of American crocodiles ( n = 151) and Burmese pythons ( n = 36) were found dead. In contrast, no American alligators and no native snakes were found dead. American alligators and American crocodiles behaved differently during the cold spell. American alligators stopped basking and retreated to warmer water. American crocodiles apparently continued to bask during extreme cold temperatures resulting in lethal body temperatures. The mortality of Burmese pythons compared to the absence of mortality for native snakes suggests that the current population of Burmese pythons in the Everglades is less tolerant of cold temperatures than native snakes. Burmese pythons introduced from other parts of their native range may be more tolerant of cold temperatures. We documented the direct effects of cold temperatures on crocodiles and pythons; however, evidence of long-term effects of cold temperature on their populations within their established ranges remains lacking. Mortality of crocodiles and pythons outside of their current established range may be more important in setting distributional limits.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Spatial and temporal variability in estuary habitat use by American alligators

Estuarine habitat occupied by Alligator mississippiensis , a primarily freshwater species, is spatially and temporally heterogeneous largely due to a salinity gradient that fluctuates. Using long-term night light survey data, we examined seasonal patterns in alligators’ habitat use by size classes in midstream and downstream estuary zones of Shark River, Everglades National Park, in southern Florida. We observed predominantly large-sized alligators (total length ≥ 1.75 m); observations of alligators in the small size classes (0.5 m ≤ total length < 1.25 m) were rare especially in the higher-salinity downstream zone. The density of alligators in the downstream zone was lower than that of the midstream zone during the dry season when salinity increases due to reduced precipitation. Conversely, the density of the large size alligators was higher in the downstream zone than in the midstream zone during the wet season, likely because of reduced salinity. We also found a significant declining trend over time in the number of alligators in the dry season, which coincides with the reported decline in alligator relative density in southern Florida freshwater wetlands. Our results indicated high adaptability of alligators to the fluctuating habitat conditions. Use of estuaries by alligators is likely driven in part by physiology and possibly by reproductive cycle, and our results supported their opportunistic use of estuary habitat and ontogenetic niche shifts.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Fluctuating water depths affect American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) body condition in the Everglades, Florida, USA

Successful restoration of wetland ecosystems requires knowledge of wetland hydrologic patterns and an understanding of how those patterns affect wetland plant and animal populations.Within the Everglades, Florida, USA restoration, an applied science strategy including conceptual ecological models linking drivers to indicators is being used to organize current scientific understanding to support restoration efforts. A key driver of the ecosystem affecting the distribution and abundance of organisms is the timing, distribution, and volume of water flows that result in water depth patterns across the landscape. American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) are one of the ecological indicators being used to assess Everglades restoration because they are a keystone species and integrate biological impacts of hydrological operations through all life stages. Alligator body condition (the relative fatness of an animal) is one of the metrics being used and targets have been set to allow us to track progress. We examined trends in alligator body condition using Fulton’s K over a 15 year period (2000–2014) at seven different wetland areas within the Everglades ecosystem, assessed patterns and trends relative to restoration targets, and related those trends to hydrologic variables. We developed a series of 17 a priori hypotheses that we tested with an information theoretic approach to identify which hydrologic factors affect alligator body condition. Alligator body condition was highest throughout the Everglades during the early 2000s and is approximately 5–10% lower now (2014). Values have varied by year, area, and hydrology. Body condition was positively correlated with range in water depth and fall water depth. Our top model was the “Current” model and included variables that describe current year hydrology (spring depth, fall depth, hydroperiod, range, interaction of range and fall depth, interaction of range and hydroperiod). Across all models, interaction between range and fall water depth was the most important variable (relative weight of 1.0) followed by spring and fall water depths (0.99), range (0.96), hydroperiod (0.95) and interaction between range and hydroperiod (0.95). Our work provides additional evidence that restoring a greater range in annual water depths is important for improvement of alligator body condition and ecosystem function. This information can be incorporated into both planning and operations to assist in reaching Everglades restoration goals.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Value-focused framework for defining landscape-scale conservation targets

Conservation of natural resources can be challenging in a rapidly changing world and require collaborative efforts for success. Conservation planning is the process of deciding how to protect, conserve, and enhance or minimize loss of natural and cultural resources. Establishing conservation targets (also called indicators or endpoints), the measurable expressions of desired resource conditions, can help with site-specific up to landscape-scale conservation planning. Using conservation targets and tracking them through time can deliver benefits such as insight into ecosystem health and providing early warnings about undesirable trends. We describe an approach using value-focused thinking to develop statewide conservation targets for Florida. Using such an approach allowed us to first identify stakeholder objectives and then define conservation targets to meet those objectives. Stakeholders were able to see how their shared efforts fit into the broader conservation context, and also anticipate the benefits of multi-agency and -organization collaboration. We developed an iterative process for large-scale conservation planning that included defining a shared framework for the process, defining the conservation targets themselves, as well as developing management and monitoring strategies for evaluation of their effectiveness. The process we describe is applicable to other geographies where multiple parties are seeking to implement collaborative, large-scale biological planning.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗

USGS2016

Considerations for building climate-based species distribution models

Climate plays an important role in the distribution of species. A given species may adjust to new conditions in-place, move to new areas with suitable climates, or go extinct. Scientists and conservation practitioners use mathematical models to predict the effects of future climate change on wildlife and plan for a biodiverse future. This 8-page fact sheet written by David N. Bucklin, Mathieu Basille, Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Frank J. Mazzotti, and James I. Watling and published by the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation explains how, with a better understanding of species distribution models, we can predict how species may respond to climate change. The models alone cannot tell us how a certain species will actually respond to changes in climate, but they can inform conservation planning that aims to allow species to both adapt in place and (for those that are able to) move to newly suitable areas. Such planning will likely minimize loss of biodiversity due to climate change.

Report↗

USGS2015

Dry years decrease abundance of American alligators in the Florida Everglades

The Everglades has been greatly reduced and is threatened by land use change and altered hydrology. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan calls for monitoring and assessment of key ecosystem attributes, one of which is abundance of American alligators. We examined 10 years of alligator night spotlight counts from Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge along two canals and in the interior marsh to determine trends and how dry years affect alligator abundance. Alligators showed population response to hydrologic conditions. In particular, there were declines in abundance after dry years followed by an apparent recovery in abundance in subsequent years. Increases in abundance were lower in the marsh than L-40 Canal. In addition, there was evidence that intensity of dry events affected population dynamics with greater declines observed in years with drier conditions. Results revealed that overall population of alligators increased from 2004 to 2013, but that increases varied by survey route. These results demonstrate that dry years cause a decline in alligator abundance proportional to the intensity of the dry event, and that it is important to make a distinction between canals and marsh when measuring alligator response to hydrology.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in basic and applied ecology, making it important to understand sources and magnitudes of uncertainty in SDM performance and predictions. We analyzed SDM performance and partitioned variance among prediction maps for 15 rare vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using all possible combinations of seven potential sources of uncertainty in SDMs: algorithms, climate datasets, model domain, species presences, variable collinearity, CO 2 emissions scenarios, and general circulation models. The choice of modeling algorithm was the greatest source of uncertainty in SDM performance and prediction maps, with some additional variation in performance associated with the comprehensiveness of the species presences used for modeling. Other sources of uncertainty that have received attention in the SDM literature such as variable collinearity and model domain contributed little to differences in SDM performance or predictions in this study. Predictions from different algorithms tended to be more variable at northern range margins for species with more northern distributions, which may complicate conservation planning at the leading edge of species' geographic ranges. The clear message emerging from this work is that researchers should use multiple algorithms for modeling rather than relying on predictions from a single algorithm, invest resources in compiling a comprehensive set of species presences, and explicitly evaluate uncertainty in SDM predictions at leading range margins.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2015

Defining conservation targets on a landscape-scale

Conservation planning, the process of deciding how to protect, conserve, enhance and(or) minimize loss of natural and cultural resources, is a fundamental process to achieve conservation success in a time of rapid environmental change. Conservation targets, the measurable expressions of desired resource conditions, are an important tool in biological planning to achieve effective outcomes. Conservation targets provide a focus for planning, design, conservation action, and collaborative monitoring of environmental trends to guide landscape-scale conservation to improve the quality and quantity of key ecological and cultural resources. It is essential to have an iterative and inclusive method to define conservation targets that is replicable and allows for the evaluation of the effectiveness of conservation targets over time. In this document, we describe a process that can be implemented to achieve landscape-scale conservation, which includes defining conservation targets. We also describe what has been accomplished to date (September 2015) through this process for the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC).

Florida↗

USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗