Geology topics

James E. Hines

Publications and source records attributed to James E. Hines.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2011

Demographic consequences of migratory stopover: Linking red knot survival to horseshoe crab spawning abundance

Understanding how events during one period of the annual cycle carry over to affect survival and other fitness components in other periods is essential to understanding migratory bird demography and conservation needs. Previous research has suggested that western Atlantic red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa ) populations are greatly affected by horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ) egg availability at Delaware Bay stopover sites during their spring northward migration. We present a mass‐based multistate, capture‐recapture/resighting model linking (1) red knot stopover mass gain to horseshoe crab spawning abundance and (2) subsequent apparent annual survival to mass state at the time of departure from the Delaware Bay stopover area. The model and analysis use capture‐recapture/resighting data with over 16,000 individual captures and 13,000 resightings collected in Delaware Bay over a 12 year period from 1997–2008, and the results are used to evaluate the central management hypothesis that red knot populations can be influenced by horseshoe crab harvest regulations as part of a larger adaptive management effort. Model selection statistics showed support for a positive relationship between horseshoe crab spawning abundance during the stopover and the probability of red knots gaining mass (parameter coefficient from the top model b̂ = 1.71, = 0.46). Our analyses also supported the link between red knot mass and apparent annual survival, although average estimates for the two mass classes differed only slightly. The addition of arctic snow depth as a covariate influencing apparent survival improved the fit of the data to the models (parameter coefficient from the top model b̂ = 0.50, = 0.08). Our results indicate that managing horseshoe crab resources in the Delaware Bay has the potential to improve red knot population status.

Delaware, New Jersey↗

USGS2010

Approaches for the direct estimation of lambda, and demographic contributions to lambda, using capture-recapture data

We first consider the estimation of the finite rate of population increase or population growth rate, u i , using capture-recapture data from open populations. We review estimation and modelling of u i under three main approaches to modelling openpopulation data: the classic approach of Jolly (1965) and Seber (1965), the superpopulation approach of Crosbie & Manly (1985) and Schwarz & Arnason (1996), and the temporal symmetry approach of Pradel (1996). Next, we consider the contributions of different demographic components to u i using a probabilistic approach based on the composition of the population at time i + 1 (Nichols et al., 2000b). The parameters of interest are identical to the seniority parameters, n i , of Pradel (1996). We review estimation of n i under the classic, superpopulation, and temporal symmetry approaches. We then compare these direct estimation approaches for u i and n i with analogues computed using projection matrix asymptotics. We also discuss various extensions of the estimation approaches to multistate applications and to joint likelihoods involving multiple data types.

Journal of Applied Statistics↗

USGS2010

Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data

Pradel's (1996) temporal symmetry model permitting direct estimation and modelling of population growth rate, u i , provides a potentially useful tool for the study of population dynamics using marked animals. Because of its recent publication date, the approach has not seen much use, and there have been virtually no investigations directed at robustness of the resulting estimators. Here we consider several potential sources of bias, all motivated by specific uses of this estimation approach. We consider sampling situations in which the study area expands with time and present an analytic expression for the bias in u i We next consider trap response in capture probabilities and heterogeneous capture probabilities and compute large-sample and simulation-based approximations of resulting bias in u i . These approximations indicate that trap response is an especially important assumption violation that can produce substantial bias. Finally, we consider losses on capture and emphasize the importance of selecting the estimator for u i that is appropriate to the question being addressed. For studies based on only sighting and resighting data, Pradel's (1996) u i ' is the appropriate estimator.

Journal of Applied Statistics↗

USGS2010

Simultaneous modeling of habitat suitability, occupancy, and relative abundance: African elephants in Zimbabwe

The recent development of statistical models such as dynamic site occupancy models provides the opportunity to address fairly complex management and conservation problems with relatively simple models. However, surprisingly few empirical studies have simultaneously modeled habitat suitability and occupancy status of organisms over large landscapes for management purposes. Joint modeling of these components is particularly important in the context of management of wild populations, as it provides a more coherent framework to investigate the population dynamics of organisms in space and time for the application of management decision tools. We applied such an approach to the study of water hole use by African elephants in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Here we show how such methodology may be implemented and derive estimates of annual transition probabilities among three dry-season states for water holes: (1) unsuitable state (dry water holes with no elephants); (2) suitable state (water hole with water) with low abundance of elephants; and (3) suitable state with high abundance of elephants. We found that annual rainfall and the number of neighboring water holes influenced the transition probabilities among these three states. Because of an increase in elephant densities in the park during the study period, we also found that transition probabilities from low abundance to high abundance states increased over time. The application of the joint habitat–occupancy models provides a coherent framework to examine how habitat suitability and factors that affect habitat suitability influence the distribution and abundance of organisms. We discuss how these simple models can further be used to apply structured decision-making tools in order to derive decisions that are optimal relative to specified management objectives. The modeling framework presented in this paper should be applicable to a wide range of existing data sets and should help to address important ecological, conservation, and management problems that deal with occupancy, relative abundance, and habitat suitability.

Hwange National Park↗

USGS2009

Change in abundance of Pacific brant wintering in Alaska: Evidence of a climate warming effect?

Winter distribution of Pacific Flyway brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) has shifted northward from low-temperate areas to sub-Arctic areas over the last 42 years. We assessed the winter abundance and distribution of brant in Alaska to evaluate whether climate warming may be contributing to positive trends in the most northern of the wintering populations. Mean surface air temperatures during winter at the end of the Alaska Peninsula increased about 1°C between 1963 and 2004, resulting in a 23% reduction in freezing degree days and a 34% decline in the number of days when ice cover prevents birds from accessing food resources. Trends in the wintering population fluctuated with states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, increasing during positive (warm) phases and decreasing during negative (cold) phases, and this correlation provides support for the hypothesis that growth in the wintering population of brant in Alaska is linked to climate warming. The size of the wintering population was negatively correlated with the number of days of strong northwesterly winds in November, which suggests that the occurrence of tailwinds favorable for migration before the onset of winter was a key factor in whether brant migrated from Alaska or remained there during winter. Winter distribution of brant on the Alaska Peninsula was highly variable and influenced by ice cover, particularly at the heavily used Izembek Lagoon. Observations of previously marked brant indicated that the Alaska wintering population was composed primarily of birds originating from Arctic breeding colonies that appear to be growing. Numbers of brant in Alaska during winter will likely increase as temperatures rise and ice cover decreases at high latitudes in response to climate warming.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

Bird Study↗

USGS2009

Dynamic multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses relevant to conservation of Golden Eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska

The recent development of multistate site occupancy models offers great opportunities to frame and solve decision problems for conservation that can be viewed in terms of site occupancy. These models have several characteristics (e.g., they account for detectability) that make them particularly well suited for addressing management and conservation problems. We applied multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses related to the conservation and management of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park, Alaska, and provided estimates of transition probabilities among three occupancy states for nesting areas (occupied with successful reproduction, occupied with unsuccessful reproduction, and unoccupied). Our estimation models included the effect of potential recreational activities (hikers) and environmental covariates such as a snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) index on transition probabilities among the three occupancy states. Based on the most parsimonious model, support for the hypothesis of an effect of potential human disturbance on site occupancy dynamics was equivocal. There was some evidence that potential human disturbance negatively affected local colonization of territories, but there was no evidence of an effect on reproductive performance parameters. In addition, models that assume a positive relationship between the hare index and successful reproduction were well supported by the data. The statistical approach that we used is particularly useful to parameterize management models that can then be used to make optimal decisions related to the management of Golden Eagles in Denali. Although in our case we were particularly interested in managing recreational activities, we believe that such models should be useful to for a broad class of management and conservation problems.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds

For the purposes of making many informed conservation decisions, the main goal for data collection is to assess population status and allow prediction of the consequences of candidate management actions. Reducing the bias and variance of estimates of population parameters reduces uncertainty in population status and projections, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty under which a population manager must make a decision. In capture-recapture studies, imperfect detection of individuals, unobservable life-history states, local movement outside study areas, and tag loss can cause bias or precision problems with estimates of population parameters. Furthermore, excessive disturbance to individuals during capture?recapture sampling may be of concern because disturbance may have demographic consequences. We address these problems using as an example a monitoring program for Black-footed Albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) and Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) nesting populations in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To mitigate these estimation problems, we describe a synergistic combination of sampling design and modeling approaches. Solutions include multiple capture periods per season and multistate, robust design statistical models, dead recoveries and incidental observations, telemetry and data loggers, buffer areas around study plots to neutralize the effect of local movements outside study plots, and double banding and statistical models that account for band loss. We also present a variation on the robust capture?recapture design and a corresponding statistical model that minimizes disturbance to individuals. For the albatross case study, this less invasive robust design was more time efficient and, when used in combination with a traditional robust design, reduced the standard error of detection probability by 14% with only two hours of additional effort in the field. These field techniques and associated modeling approaches are applicable to studies of most taxa being marked and in some cases have individually been applied to studies of birds, fish, herpetofauna, and mammals.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2009

Perturbation analysis for patch occupancy dynamics

Perturbation analysis is a powerful tool to study population and community dynamics. This article describes expressions for sensitivity metrics reflecting changes in equilibrium occupancy resulting from small changes in the vital rates of patch occupancy dynamics (i.e., probabilities of local patch colonization and extinction). We illustrate our approach with a case study of occupancy dynamics of Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) nesting territories. Examination of the hypothesis of system equilibrium suggests that the system satisfies equilibrium conditions. Estimates of vital rates obtained using patch occupancy models are used to estimate equilibrium patch occupancy of eagles. We then compute estimates of sensitivity metrics and discuss their implications for eagle population ecology and management. Finally, we discuss the intuition underlying our sensitivity metrics and then provide examples of ecological questions that can be addressed using perturbation analyses. For instance, the sensitivity metrics lead to predictions about the relative importance of local colonization and local extinction probabilities in influencing equilibrium occupancy for rare and common species.

Ecology↗

USGS2008

Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method. We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site. We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber . For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species. Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be viewed as another variation of Pollock's robust design and may be applicable to a wide variety of scenarios where species occur in an area but are not always near the sampled locations. The estimation approach is likely to be especially useful in multispecies conservation programmes by providing efficient estimates using multiple detection devices and by providing device-specific detection probability estimates for use in survey design.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2008

Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show that estimating survival of young individuals may be crucial to elucidating the demographic tactics of seabirds.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2005

Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds

Questions about individual variation in “quality” and fitness are of great interest to evolutionary and population ecologists. Such variation can be investigated using either a random effects approach or an approach that relies on identifying observable traits that are themselves correlated with fitness components. We used the latter approach with data from 1,925 individual females of three species of ducks (tufted duck, Aythya fuligula ; common pochard, Aythya ferina ; northern shoveler, Anas clypeata ) sampled on their breeding grounds at Engure Marsh, Latvia, for over 15 years. Based on associations with reproductive output, we selected two traits, one morphological (relative body condition) and one behavioral (relative time of nesting), that can be used to characterize individual females over their lifetimes. We then asked whether these traits were related to annual survival probabilities of nesting females. We hypothesized quadratic, rather than monotonic, relationships based loosely on ideas about the likely action of stabilizing selection on these two traits. Parameters of these relationships were estimated directly using ultrastructural models embedded within capture-recapture-band-recovery models. Results provided evidence that both traits were related to survival in the hypothesized manner. For all three species, females that tended to nest earlier than the norm exhibited the highest survival rates, but very early nesters experienced reduced survival and late nesters showed even lower survival. For shovelers, females in average body condition showed the highest survival, with lower survival rates exhibited by both heavy and light birds. For common pochard and tufted duck, the highest survival rates were associated with birds of slightly above-average condition, with somewhat lower survival for very heavy birds and much lower survival for birds in relatively poor condition. Based on results from this study and previous work on reproduction, we conclude that nest initiation date and body condition covary with both reproductive and survival components of fitness. These associations lead to a positive covariance of these two fitness components within individuals and to the conclusion that these two traits are indeed correlates of individual quality.

Oecologia↗

USGS2005

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs ( Rana sylvatica ) and spotted salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum ). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002–2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New↗

USGS2005

Effects of tag loss on direct estimates of population growth rate

The temporal symmetry approach of R. Pradel can be used with capture– recapture data to produce retrospective estimates of a population's growth rate, λ i , and the relative contributions to λ i from different components of the population. Direct estimation of λ i provides an alternative to using population projection matrices to estimate asymptotic λ and is seeing increased use. However, the robustness of direct estimates of λ i to violations of several key assumptions has not yet been investigated. Here, we consider tag loss as a possible source of bias for scenarios in which the rate of tag loss is (1) the same for all marked animals in the population and (2) a function of tag age. We computed analytic approximations of the expected values for each of the parameter estimators involved in direct estimation and used those values to calculate bias and precision for each parameter estimator. Estimates of λ i were robust to homogeneous rates of tag loss. When tag loss rates varied by tag age, bias occurred for some of the sampling situations evaluated, especially those with low capture probability, a high rate of tag loss, or both. For situations with low rates of tag loss and high capture probability, bias was low and often negligible. Estimates of contributions of demographic components to λ i were not robust to tag loss. Tag loss reduced the precision of all estimates because tag loss results in fewer marked animals remaining available for estimation. Clearly tag loss should be prevented if possible, and should be considered in analyses of λ i , but tag loss does not necessarily preclude unbiased estimation of λ i .

Ecology↗

USGS2003

Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2002

Identification and synthetic modeling of factors affecting American black duck populations

We reviewed the literature on factors potentially affecting the population status of American black ducks ( Anas rupribes ). Our review suggests that there is some support for the influence of 4 major, continental-scope factors in limiting or regulating black duck populations: 1) loss in the quantity or quality of breeding habitats; 2) loss in the quantity or quality of wintering habitats; 3) harvest, and 4) interactions (competition, hybridization) with mallards ( Anas platyrhychos ) during the breeding and/or wintering periods. These factors were used as the basis of an annual life cycle model in which reproduction rates and survival rates were modeled as functions of the above factors, with parameters of the model describing the strength of these relationships. Variation in the model parameter values allows for consideration of scientific uncertainty as to the degree each of these factors may be contributing to declines in black duck populations, and thus allows for the investigation of the possible effects of management (e.g., habitat improvement, harvest reductions) under different assumptions. We then used available, historical data on black duck populations (abundance, annual reproduction rates, and survival rates) and possible driving factors (trends in breeding and wintering habitats, harvest rates, and abundance of mallards) to estimate model parameters. Our estimated reproduction submodel included parameters describing negative density feedback of black ducks, positive influence of breeding habitat, and negative influence of mallard densities; our survival submodel included terms for positive influence of winter habitat on reproduction rates, and negative influences of black duck density (i.e., compensation to harvest mortality). Individual models within each group (reproduction, survival) involved various combinations of these factors, and each was given an information theoretic weight for use in subsequent prediction. The reproduction model with highest AIC weight (0.70) predicted black duck age ratios increasing as a function of decreasing mallard abundance and increasing acreage of breeding habitat; all models considered involved negative density dependence for black ducks. The survival model with highest AIC weight (0.51) predicted nonharvest survival increasing as a function of increasing acreage of wintering habitat and decreasing harvest rates (additive mortality); models involving compensatory mortality effects received ≈0.12 total weight, vs. 0.88 for additive models. We used the combined model, together with our historical data set, to perform a series of 1-year population forecasts, similar to those that might be performed under adaptive management. Initial model forecasts over-predicted observed breeding populations by ≈25%. Least-squares calibration reduced the bias to ≈0.5% under prediction. After calibration, model-averaged predictions over the 16 alternative models (4 reproduction × 4 survival, weighted by AIC model weights) explained 67% of the variation in annual breeding population abundance for black ducks, suggesting that it might have utility as a predictive tool in adaptive management. We investigated the effects of statistical uncertainty in parameter values on predicted population growth rates for the combined annual model, via sensitivity analyses. Parameter sensitivity varied in relation to the parameter values over the estimated confidence intervals, and in relation to harvest rates and mallard abundance. Forecasts of black duck abundance were extremely sensitive to variation in parameter values for the coefficients for breeding and wintering habitat effects. Model-averaged forecasts of black duck abundance were also sensitive to changes in harvest rate and mallard abundance, with rapid declines in black duck abundance predicted for a range of harvest rates and mallard abundance higher than current levels of either factor, but easily envisaged, particularly given current rates of growth for mallard populations. Because of concerns about sensitivity to habitat coefficients, and particularly in light of deficiencies in the historical data used to estimate these parameters, we developed a simplified model that excludes habitat effects. We also developed alternative models involving a calibration adjustment for reproduction rates, survival rates, or neither. Calibration of survival rates performed best (AIC weight 0.59, % BIAS = -0.280, R 2 =0.679), with reproduction calibration somewhat inferior (AIC weight 0.41, % BIAS = -0.267, R 2 =0.672); models without calibration received virtually no AIC weight and were discarded. We recommend that the simplified model set (4 biological models × 2 alternative calibration factors) be retained as the best working set of alternative models for research and management. Finally, we provide some preliminary guidance for the development of adaptive harvest management for black ducks, using our working set of models.

Book↗

USGS2000

Geographic analysis of species richness and community attributes of forest birds from survey data in the mid-Atlantic integrated assessment region

Species richness of local communities is a state variable commonly used in community ecology and conservation biology. Investigation of spatial and temporal variations in richness and identification of factors associated with these variations form a basis for specifying management plans, evaluating these plans, and for testing hypotheses of theoretical interest. However, estimation of species richness is not trivial: species can be missed by investigators during sampling sessions. Sampling artifacts can lead to erroneous conclusions on spatial and temporal variation in species richness. Here we use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to estimate parameters describing the state of bird communities in the Mid-Atlantic Assessment (MAIA) region: species richness, extinction probability, turnover and relative species richness. We use a recently developed approach to estimation of species richness and related parameters that does not require the assumption that all the species are detected during sampling efforts. The information presented here is intended to visualize the state of bird communities in the MAIA region. We provide information on 1975 and 1990. We also quantified the changes between these years. We summarized and mapped the community attributes at a scale of management interest (watershed units).

Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West V↗

USGS2000

Annual survival and site fidelity of Stellar's Eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

Populations of Steller's eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (±SE) were 0.899 ± 0.032 for females and 0.765 ± 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

Alaska↗