Geology topics

James E. Hines

Publications and source records attributed to James E. Hines.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Status assessment of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia and other large mammals in the Kyrgyz Alay , using community knowledge corrected for imperfect detection

The Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in the Central Asian Mountains, which cover c. 2 million km 2 . Little is known about its status in the Kyrgyz Alay Mountains, a relatively narrow stretch of habitat connecting the southern and northern global ranges of the species. In 2010 we gathered information on current and past (1990, the last year of the Soviet Union) distributions of snow leopards and five sympatric large mammals across 14,000 km 2 of the Kyrgyz Alay. We interviewed 95 key informants from local communities. Across 49 400-km 2 grid cells we obtained 1,606 and 962 records of species occurrence (site use) in 1990 and 2010, respectively. The data were analysed using the multi-season site occupancy framework to incorporate uncertainty in detection across interviewees and time periods. High probability of use by snow leopards in the past was recorded in > 70% of the Kyrgyz Alay. Between the two sampling periods 39% of sites showed a high probability of local extinction of snow leopard. We also recorded high probability of local extinction of brown bear Ursus arctos (84% of sites) and Marco Polo sheep Ovis ammon polii (47% of sites), mainly in regions used intensively by people. Data indicated a high probability of local colonization by lynx Lynx lynx in 41% of the sites. Although wildlife has declined in areas of central and eastern Alay, regions in the north-west, and the northern and southern fringes appear to retain high conservation value.

Oryx↗

USGS2015

Testing hypotheses on distribution shifts and changes in phenology of imperfectly detectable species

With ongoing climate change, many species are expected to shift their spatial and temporal distributions. To document changes in species distribution and phenology, detection/non-detection data have proven very useful. Occupancy models provide a robust way to analyse such data, but inference is usually focused on species spatial distribution, not phenology. We present a multi-season extension of the staggered-entry occupancy model of Kendall et al . (2013, Ecology , 94, 610), which permits inference about the within-season patterns of species arrival and departure at sampling sites. The new model presented here allows investigation of species phenology and spatial distribution across years, as well as site extinction/colonization dynamics. We illustrate the model with two data sets on European migratory passerines and one data set on North American treefrogs. We show how to derive several additional phenological parameters, such as annual mean arrival and departure dates, from estimated arrival and departure probabilities. Given the extent of detection/non-detection data that are available, we believe that this modelling approach will prove very useful to further understand and predict species responses to climate change.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

Heterogeneous movement of insectivorous Amazonian birds through primary and secondary forest: A case study using multistate models with radiotelemetry data

Given rates of deforestation, disturbance, and secondary forest accumulation in tropical rainforests, there is a great need to quantify habitat use and movement among different habitats. This need is particularly pronounced for animals most sensitive to disturbance, such as insectivorous understory birds. Here we use multistate capture–recapture models with radiotelemetry data to determine the successional stage at which within-day movement probabilities of Amazonian birds in secondary forest are similar to those in primary forest. We radio-tracked three common understory insectivore species in primary and secondary forest at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments project near Manaus, Brazil: two woodcreepers, Glyphorynchus spirurus ( n = 19) and Xiphorhynchus pardalotus ( n = 18), and the terrestrial antthrush Formicarius colma ( n = 19 ) . Forest age was a strong predictor of fidelity to a given habitat. All three species showed greater fidelity to primary forest than to 8–14-year-old secondary forest, indicating the latter’s relatively poor quality. The two woodcreeper species used 12–18-year-old secondary forest in a manner comparable to continuous forest, but F . colma avoided moving even to 27–31-year-old secondary forest—the oldest at our site. Our results suggest that managers concerned with less sensitive species can assume that forest reserves connected by 12–18-year-old secondary forest corridors are effectively connected. On the other hand, >30 years are required after land abandonment before secondary forest serves as a primary forest-like conduit for movement by F . colma ; more sensitive terrestrial insectivores may take longer still.

Manaus↗

USGS2014

Multiseason occupancy models for correlated replicate surveys

Occupancy surveys collecting data from adjacent (sometimes correlated) spatial replicates have become relatively popular for logistical reasons. Hines et al . ( 2010 ) presented one approach to modelling such data for single-season occupancy surveys. Here, we present a multiseason analogue of this model (with corresponding software) for inferences about occupancy dynamics. We include a new parameter to deal with the uncertainty associated with the first spatial replicate for both single-season and multiseason models. We use a case study, based on the brown-headed nuthatch, to assess the need for these models when analysing data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and we test various hypotheses about occupancy dynamics for this species in the south-eastern United States. The new model permits inference about local probabilities of extinction, colonization and occupancy for sampling conducted over multiple seasons. The model performs adequately, based on a small simulation study and on results of the case study analysis. The new model incorporating correlated replicates was strongly favoured by model selection for the BBS data for brown-headed nuthatch ( Sitta pusilla ). Latitude was found to be an important source of variation in local colonization and occupancy probabilities for brown-headed nuthatch, with both probabilities being higher near the centre of the species range, as opposed to more northern and southern areas. We recommend this new occupancy model for detection–nondetection studies that use potentially correlated replicates.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2014

Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

Florida↗

USGS2014

The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions

The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading (barred owl: Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern spotted owl: Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000 km2 study area over a 22 - year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multiseason analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyze survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multiseason occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling - allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We find that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern spotted owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species both through its immediate effects on local extinction, and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as Northern spotted owl occupancy declines. Our analysis suggests that dispersal limitation affects both the invasion dynamics and the scale at which the effects of competition are observed. We also provide predictions regarding the potential costs and benefits of managing barred owl populations at different target levels.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

fatalityCMR: capture-recapture software to correct raw counts of wildlife fatalities using trial experiments for carcass detection probability and persistence time

Many industrial and agricultural activities involve wildlife fatalities by collision, poisoning or other involuntary harvest: wind turbines, highway network, utility network, tall structures, pesticides, etc. Impacted wildlife may benefit from official protection, including the requirement to monitor the impact. Carcass counts can often be conducted to quantify the number of fatalities, but they need to be corrected for carcass persistence time (removal by scavengers and decay) and detection probability (searcher efficiency). In this article we introduce a new piece of software that fits a superpopulation capture-recapture model to raw count data. It uses trial data to estimate detection and daily persistence probabilities. A recurrent issue is that fatalities of rare, protected species are infrequent, in which case the software offers the option to switch to an ‘evidence of absence’ mode, i.e., estimate the number of carcasses that may have been missed by field crews. The software allows distinguishing between different turbine types (e.g. different vegetation cover under turbines, or different technical properties), as well between two carcass age-classes or states, with transition between those classes (e.g, fresh and dry). There is a data simulation capacity that may be used at the planning stage to optimize sampling design. Resulting mortality estimates can be used 1) to quantify the required amount of compensation, 2) inform mortality projections for proposed development sites, and 3) inform decisions about management of existing sites.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2014

Age-specific survival of male golden-cheeked warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler ( Setophaga chrysoparia ; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

Texas↗

USGS2013

Band reporting probablilities of mallards, American black ducks, and wood ducks in eastern North America

Estimates of band reporting probabilities are used for managing North American waterfowl to convert band recovery probabilities into harvest probabilities, which are used to set harvest regulations. Band reporting probability is the probability that someone who has shot and retrieved a banded bird will report the band. This probability can vary relative to a number of factors, particularly the inscription on the band and the ease with which it can be reported. Other factors, such as geographic reporting region, and species and sex of the bird may also play a role. We tested whether reporting probabilities of wood ducks ( Aix sponsa ) and American black ducks (black ducks; Anas rubripes ) differed from those of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and whether band reporting varied geographically or by the sex of the banded bird. In the analysis of spatially comparable wood duck and mallard data, a band reporting probability of 0.73 (95% CI = 0.67–0.78) was appropriate for use across species, sex, and reporting region within the United States. In the black duck–mallard comparison, the band reporting probability of black ducks in Eastern Canada (0.50, 95% CI = 0.44–0.57) was lower than in the Eastern United States (0.73, 95% CI = 0.62–0.83). These estimates reflected an increase in overall band reporting probability following the addition of a toll-free telephone number to band inscriptions. Lower reporting in Eastern Canada may be because of cultural, linguistic, or logistical barriers.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Geographic variation in migration chronology and winter distribution of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese

We evaluated spatial and temporal differences in migratory behavior among different breeding groups of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) using band-recovery data and observations of neck collared geese during migration and winter. Birds from different breeding areas were initially delineated by geographic distance into 6 banding reference areas (BRAs): 1) interior Alaska, 2) North Slope of Alaska, 3) western Northwest Territories (NWT), 4) western Nunavut, 5) central Nunavut, and 6) eastern Nunavut. The banding groups also differed by breeding habitat, with geese from interior Alaska nesting in the boreal forest (taiga), and all other groups breeding in tundra habitats. Geese from interior Alaska migrated earlier during autumn, and were more likely to winter farther south (in Mexico) than geese from other breeding areas. Geese banded in central and eastern Nunavut (Queen Maud Gulf and Inglis River) wintered farther east (in Louisiana) than geese from other breeding areas. Small-scale (within-state) geographic segregation of wintering flocks was evidenced by the recent (post-1990) nearly exclusive use of a new wintering area in north central Texas by geese from interior Alaska. Segregation among BRAs was also apparent in Mexico, where taiga geese were found predominantly in the central Highlands (states of Zacatecas and Durango), whereas tundra geese mostly used states along the Gulf Coast (primarily Tamaulipas). Interior Alaska birds initiated spring migration earlier than geese from other areas, and were more likely than others to stop in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, a region where cholera outbreaks periodically kill thousands of geese. Geese from interior Alaska were the first to arrive at spring staging areas in prairie Canada where BRAs exhibited spatial delineation (a longitudinal cline) in relation to breeding areas. Our results show significant geographic and temporal variation among taiga and tundra breeding cohorts during autumn, winter, and spring. Temporal and spatial differences in migratory behavior may allow management practices that accommodate potential demographic differences between taiga and tundra populations.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Selecting among competing models of electro-optic, infrared camera system range performance

Range performance is often the key requirement around which electro-optical and infrared camera systems are designed. This work presents an objective framework for evaluating competing range performance models. Model selection based on the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) is presented for the type of data collected during a typical human observer and target identification experiment. These methods are then demonstrated on observer responses to both visible and infrared imagery in which one of three maritime targets was placed at various ranges. We compare the performance of a number of different models, including those appearing previously in the literature. We conclude that our model-based approach offers substantial improvements over the traditional approach to inference, including increased precision and the ability to make predictions for some distances other than the specific set for which experimental trials were conducted.

Optical Engineering↗

USGS2013

Relaxing the closure assumption in single-season occupancy models: staggered arrival and departure times

Occupancy statistical models that account for imperfect detection have proved very useful in several areas of ecology, including species distribution and spatial dynamics, disease ecology, and ecological responses to climate change. These models are based on the collection of multiple samples at each of a number of sites within a given season, during which it is assumed the species is either absent or present and available for detection while each sample is taken. However, for some species, individuals are only present or available for detection seasonally. We present a statistical model that relaxes the closure assumption within a season by permitting staggered entry and exit times for the species of interest at each site. Based on simulation, our open model eliminates bias in occupancy estimators and in some cases increases precision. The power to detect the violation of closure is high if detection probability is reasonably high. In addition to providing more robust estimation of occupancy, this model permits comparison of phenology across sites, species, or years, by modeling variation in arrival or departure probabilities. In a comparison of four species of amphibians in Maryland we found that two toad species arrived at breeding sites later in the season than a salamander and frog species, and departed from sites earlier.

Ecology↗

USGS2012

Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2012

Neighborhood and habitat effects on vital rates: expansion of the Barred Owl in the Oregon Coast Ranges

In this paper, we modify dynamic occupancy models developed for detection-nondetection data to allow for the dependence of local vital rates on neighborhood occupancy, where neighborhood is defined very flexibly. Such dependence of occupancy dynamics on the status of a relevant neighborhood is pervasive, yet frequently ignored. Our framework permits joint inference about the importance of neighborhood effects and habitat covariates in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our specific motivation is the recent expansion of the Barred Owl (Strix varia) in western Oregon, USA, over the period 1990-2010. Because the focal period was one of dramatic range expansion and local population increase, the use of models that incorporate regional occupancy (sources of colonists) as determinants of dynamic rate parameters is especially appropriate. We began our analysis of 21 years of Barred Owl presence/nondetection data in the Tyee Density Study Area (TDSA) by testing a suite of six models that varied only in the covariates included in the modeling of detection probability. We then tested whether models that used regional occupancy as a covariate for colonization and extinction outperformed models with constant or year-specific colonization or extinction rates. Finally we tested whether habitat covariates improved the AIC of our models, focusing on which habitat covariates performed best, and whether the signs of habitat effects are consistent with a priori hypotheses. We conclude that all covariates used to model detection probability lead to improved AIC, that regional occupancy influences colonization and extinction rates, and that habitat plays an important role in determining extinction and colonization rates. As occupancy increases from low levels toward equilibrium, colonization increases and extinction decreases, presumably because there are more and more dispersing juveniles. While both rates are affected, colonization increases more than extinction decreases. Colonization is higher and extinction is lower in survey polygons with more riparian forest. The effects of riparian forest on extinction rates are greater than on colonization rates. Model results have implications for management of the invading Barred Owl, both through habitat alteration and removal.

Oregon↗

USGS2012

Joint estimation of habitat dynamics and species interactions: Disturbance reduces co-occurrence of non-native predators with an endangered toad

1. Ecologists have long been interested in the processes that determine patterns of species occurrence and co-occurrence. Potential short-comings of many existing empirical approaches that address these questions include a reliance on patterns of occurrence at a single time point, failure to account properly for imperfect detection and treating the environment as a static variable. 2. We fit detection and non-detection data collected from repeat visits using a dynamic site occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for the temporal dynamics of a focal prey species, its predators and its habitat. Our objective was to determine how disturbance and species interactions affect the co-occurrence probabilities of an endangered toad and recently introduced non-native predators in stream breeding habitats. For this, we determined statistical support for alternative processes that could affect co-occurrence frequency in the system. 3. We collected occurrence data at stream segments in two watersheds where streams were largely ephemeral and one watershed dominated by perennial streams. Co-occurrence probabilities of toads with non-native predators were related to disturbance frequency, with low co-occurrence in the ephemeral watershed and high co-occurrence in the perennial watershed. This occurred because once predators were established at a site, they were rarely lost from the site except in cases when the site dried out. Once dry sites became suitable again, toads colonized them much more rapidly than predators, creating a period of predator-free space. 4. We attribute the dynamics to a storage effect, where toads persisting outside the stream environment during periods of drought rapidly colonized sites when they become suitable again. Our results support that even in highly connected stream networks, temporal disturbance can structure frequencies with which breeding amphibians encounter non-native predators. 5. Dynamic multi-state occupancy models are a powerful tool for rigorously examining hypotheses about inter-species and species–habitat interactions. In contrast to previous methods that infer dynamic processes based on static patterns in occupancy, the approach we took allows the dynamic processes that determine species–species and species–habitat interactions to be directly estimated.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2012

Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010

The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi = 0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi = 0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

New York↗

USGS2012

Estimating parameters of hidden Markov models based on marked individuals: use of robust design data

Development and use of multistate mark-recapture models, which provide estimates of parameters of Markov processes in the face of imperfect detection, have become common over the last twenty years. Recently, estimating parameters of hidden Markov models, where the state of an individual can be uncertain even when it is detected, has received attention. Previous work has shown that ignoring state uncertainty biases estimates of survival and state transition probabilities, thereby reducing the power to detect effects. Efforts to adjust for state uncertainty have included special cases and a general framework for a single sample per period of interest. We provide a flexible framework for adjusting for state uncertainty in multistate models, while utilizing multiple sampling occasions per period of interest to increase precision and remove parameter redundancy. These models also produce direct estimates of state structure for each primary period, even for the case where there is just one sampling occasion. We apply our model to expected value data, and to data from a study of Florida manatees, to provide examples of the improvement in precision due to secondary capture occasions. We also provide user-friendly software to implement these models. This general framework could also be used by practitioners to consider constrained models of particular interest, or model the relationship between within-primary period parameters (e.g., state structure) and between-primary period parameters (e.g., state transition probabilities).

Ecology↗

USGS2011

Integrating occupancy modeling and interview data for corridor identification: A case study for jaguars in Nicaragua

Corridors are critical elements in the long-term conservation of wide-ranging species like the jaguar ( Panthera onca ). Jaguar corridors across the range of the species were initially identified using a GIS-based least-cost corridor model. However, due to inherent errors in remotely sensed data and model uncertainties, these corridors warrant field verification before conservation efforts can begin. We developed a novel corridor assessment protocol based on interview data and site occupancy modeling. We divided our pilot study area, in southeastern Nicaragua, into 71, 6 × 6 km sampling units and conducted 160 structured interviews with local residents. Interviews were designed to collect data on jaguar and seven prey species so that detection/non-detection matrices could be constructed for each sampling unit. Jaguars were reportedly detected in 57% of the sampling units and had a detection probability of 28%. With the exception of white-lipped peccary, prey species were reportedly detected in 82–100% of the sampling units. Though the use of interview data may violate some assumptions of the occupancy modeling approach for determining ‘proportion of area occupied’, we countered these shortcomings through study design and interpreting the occupancy parameter, psi, as ‘probability of habitat used’. Probability of habitat use was modeled for each target species using single state or multistate models. A combination of the estimated probabilities of habitat use for jaguar and prey was selected to identify the final jaguar corridor. This protocol provides an efficient field methodology for identifying corridors for easily-identifiable species, across large study areas comprised of unprotected, private lands.

Biological Conservation↗