Geology topics

J.D. Nichols

Publications and source records attributed to J.D. Nichols.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2006

Multiscale patterns of movement in fragmented landscapes and consequences on demography of the snail kite in Florida

1. Habitat loss and fragmentation are major factors affecting vertebrate populations. A major effect of these habitat alterations is that they reduce movement of organisms. Despite the accepted importance of movement in driving the dynamics of many natural populations, movement of vertebrates in fragmented landscapes have seldom been estimated with robust statistical methods. 2. We estimated movement probabilities of snail kites Rosthramus sociabilis within the remaining wetlands in Florida. Using both radio-telemetry and banding information, we used a multistate modelling approach to estimate transition probabilities at two temporal scales (month; year) and multiple spatial scales. We examined kite movement among wetlands altered by three different levels of fragmentation: among wetlands separated by small physical barriers (e.g. road); among wetlands separated by moderate amount of matrix (< 5 km); and among wetlands separated by extensive matrix areas (> 15 km). 3. Kites moved extensively among contiguous wetlands (movement probability 0?29 per month), but significantly less among isolated wetlands (movement probability 0?10 per month). 4. Kites showed high levels of annual site fidelity to most isolated wetlands (probability ranged from 0?72 to 0?95 per year). 5. We tested the effects of patch size and interpatch distance on movement. Our modelling indicated an effect of both distance and patch size on juveniles' movement (but not adult) when examining movements among fragments. 6. Only a small proportion of kites escaped a regional drought by moving to refugia (wetlands less affected by drought). Many individuals died after the drought. During drought adult survival dropped by 16% while juvenile survival dropped by 86% (possibly because juveniles were less likely to reach refugia). 7. We hypothesize that fragmentation may decrease kite's resistance to drought by restricting exploratory behaviour.

Florida↗

USGS2006

Science deficiency in conservation practice: the monitoring of tiger populations in India

Conservation practices are supposed to get refined by advancing scientific knowledge. We study this phenomenon in the context of monitoring tiger populations in India, by evaluating the 'pugmark census method' employed by wildlife managers for three decades. We use an analytical framework of modem animal population sampling to test the efficacy of the pugmark censuses using scientific data on tigers and our field observations. We identify three critical goals for monitoring tiger populations, in order of increasing sophistication: (1) distribution mapping, (2) tracking relative abundance, (3) estimation of absolute abundance. We demonstrate that the present census-based paradigm does not work because it ignores the first two simpler goals, and targets, but fails to achieve, the most difficult third goal. We point out the utility and ready availability of alternative monitoring paradigms that deal with the central problems of spatial sampling and observability. We propose an alternative sampling-based approach that can be tailored to meet practical needs of tiger monitoring at different levels of refinement.

Animal Conservation↗

USGS2006

Monitoring for conservation

Human-mediated environmental changes have resulted in appropriate concern for the conservation of ecological systems and have led to the development of many ecological monitoring programs worldwide. Many programs that are identified with the purpose of `surveillance? represent an inefficient use of conservation funds and effort. Here, we revisit the 1964 paper by Platt and argue that his recommendations about the conduct of science are equally relevant to the conduct of ecological monitoring programs. In particular, we argue that monitoring should not be viewed as a stand-alone activity, but instead as a component of a larger process of either conservation-oriented science or management. Corresponding changes in monitoring focus and design would lead to substantial increases in the efficiency and usefulness of monitoring results in conservation.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2006

The role of local populations within a landscape context: Defining and classifying sources and sinks

The interaction of local populations has been the focus of an increasing number of studies in the past 30 years. The study of source-sink dynamics has especially generated much interest. Many of the criteria used to distinguish sources and sinks incorporate the process of apparent survival (i.e., the combined probability of true survival and site fidelity) but not emigration. These criteria implicitly treat emigration as mortality, thus biasing the classification of sources and sinks in a manner that could lead to flawed habitat management. Some of the same criteria require rather restrictive assumptions about population equilibrium that, when violated, can also generate misleading inference. Here, we expand on a criterion (denoted ?contribution? or Cr) that incorporates successful emigration in differentiating sources and sinks and that makes no restrictive assumptions about dispersal or equilibrium processes in populations of interest. The metric Cr is rooted in the theory of matrix population models, yet it also contains clearly specified parameters that have been estimated in previous empirical research. We suggest that estimates of emigration are important for delineating sources and sinks and, more generally, for evaluating how local populations interact to generate overall system dynamics. This suggestion has direct implications for issues such as species conservation and habitat management.

American Naturalist↗

USGS2006

Occupancy Estimation and Modeling : Inferring Patterns and Dynamics of Species Occurrence

This is the first book to examine the latest methods in analyzing presence/absence data surveys. Using four classes of models (single-species, single-season; single-species, multiple season; multiple-species, single-season; and multiple-species, multiple-season), the authors discuss the practical sampling situation, present a likelihood-based model enabling direct estimation of the occupancy-related parameters while allowing for imperfect detectability, and make recommendations for designing studies using these models. It provides authoritative insights into the latest in estimation modeling; discusses multiple models which lay the groundwork for future study designs; addresses critical issues of imperfect detectibility and its effects on estimation; and explores the role of probability in estimating in detail.

Book↗

USGS2006

Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations - recent successes and future prospects

The history of North American waterfowl harvest management has been characterized by attempts to use population monitoring data to make informed harvest management decisions. Early attempts can be characterized as intuitive decision processes, and later efforts were guided increasingly by population models and associated predictions. In 1995, a formal adaptive management process was implemented, and annual decisions about duck harvest regulations in the United States are still based on this process. This formal decision process is designed to deal appropriately with the various forms of uncertainty that characterize management decisions, environmental uncertainty, structural uncertainty, partial controllability and partial observability. The key components of the process are (1) objectives, (2) potential management actions, (3) model(s) of population response to management actions, (4) credibility measures for these models, and (5) a monitoring program. The operation of this iterative process is described, and a brief history of a decade of its use is presented. Future challenges range from social and political issues such as appropriate objectives and management actions, to technical issues such as multispecies management, geographic allocation of harvest, and incorporation of actions that include habitat acquisition and management.

Book chapter↗

USGS2006

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Ecology↗

USGS2006

Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

Aim Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20-year time period. Location Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community-level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five-region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2006

Comment on 'Are survival rates for northern spotted owls biased?'

Loehle et al. recently estimated survival rates from radio-telemetered northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina (Merriam, 1898)) and suggested that survival rates estimated for this species from capture-recapture studies were negatively biased, which subsequently resulted in the negatively biased estimates of rates of population change (lambda) reported by Anthony et al. (Wildl. Monogr. No. 163, pp. 1-47 (2006)). We argue that their survival estimates were inappropriate for comparison with capture-recapture estimates because (i) the manner in which they censored radio-telemetered individuals had the potential to positively bias their survival estimates, (ii) their estimates of survival were not valid for evaluating bias, and (iii) the size and distribution of their radiotelemetry study areas were sufficiently different from capture-recapture study areas to preclude comparisons. In addition, their inferences of negative bias in rates of population change estimated by Anthony et al. were incorrect and reflected a misunderstanding about those estimators.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2005

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Theoretical Population Biology↗

USGS2005

General constraints on sampling wildlife on FIA plots

This paper reviews the constraints to sampling wildlife populations at FIA points. Wildlife sampling programs must have well-defined goals and provide information adequate to meet those goals. Investigators should choose a State variable based on information needs and the spatial sampling scale. We discuss estimation-based methods for three State variables: species richness, abundance, and patch occupancy. All methods incorporate two essential sources of variation: detectability estimation and spatial variation. FIA sampling imposes specific space and time criteria that may need to be adjusted to meet local wildlife objectives.

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Estimating the number of animals in wildlife populations

INTRODUCTION In 1938, Howard M. Wight devoted 9 pages, which was an entire chapter in the first wildlife management techniques manual, to what he termed 'census' methods. As books and chapters such as this attest, the volume of literature on this subject has grown tremendously. Abundance estimation remains an active area of biometrical research, as reflected in the many differences between this chapter and the similar contribution in the previous manual. Our intent in this chapter is to present an overview of the basic and most widely used population estimation techniques and to provide an entree to the relevant literature. Several possible approaches could be taken in writing a chapter dealing with population estimation. For example, we could provide a detailed treatment focusing on statistical models and on derivation of estimators based on these models. Although a chapter using this approach might provide a valuable reference for quantitative biologists and biometricians, it would be of limited use to many field biologists and wildlife managers. Another approach would be to focus on details of actually applying different population estimation techniques. This approach would include both field application (e.g., how to set out a trapping grid or conduct an aerial survey) and detailed instructions on how to use the resulting data with appropriate estimation equations. We are reluctant to attempt such an approach, however, because of the tremendous diversity of real-world field situations defined by factors such as the animal being studied, habitat, available resources, and because of our resultant inability to provide detailed instructions for all possible cases. We believe it is more useful to provide the reader with the conceptual basis underlying estimation methods. Thus, we have tried to provide intuitive explanations for how basic methods work. In doing so, we present relevant estimation equations for many methods and provide citations of more detailed treatments covering both statistical considerations and field applications. We have chosen to present methods that are representative of classes of estimators, rather than address every available method. Our hope is that this chapter will provide the reader with enough background to make an informed decision about what general method(s) will likely perform well in any particular field situation. Readers with a more quantitative background may then be able to consult detailed references and tailor the selected method to suit their particular needs. Less quantitative readers should consult a biometrician, preferably one with experience in wildlife studies, for this 'tailoring,' with the hope they will be able to do so with a basic understanding of the general method, thereby permitting useful interaction and discussion with the biometrician. SUMMARY Estimating the abundance or density of animals in wild populations is not a trivial matter. Virtually all techniques involve the basic problem of estimating the probability of seeing, capturing, or otherwise detecting animals during some type of survey and, in many cases, sampling concerns as well. In the case of indices, the detection probability is assumed to be constant (but unknown). We caution against use of indices unless this assumption can be verified for the comparison(s) of interest. In the case of population estimation, many methods have been developed over the years to estimate the probability of detection associated with various kinds of count statistics. Techniques range from complete counts, where sampling concerns often dominate, to incomplete counts where detection probabilities are also important. Some examples of the latter are multiple observers, removal methods, and capture-recapture. Before embarking on a survey to estimate the size of a population, one must understand clearly what information is needed and for what purpose the information will be used. The key to derivin

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way

Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point counts in favor of more intensive approaches to counting. However, over the past few years a variety of statistical and methodological developments have begun to provide practical ways of overcoming some of the problems with point counts. We describe some of these approaches, and show how they can be integrated into standard point count protocols to greatly enhance the quality of the information. Several tools now exist for estimation of detection probability of birds during counts, including distance sampling, double observer methods, time-depletion (removal) methods, and hybrid methods that combine these approaches. Many counts are conducted in habitats that make auditory detection of birds much more likely than visual detection. As a framework for understanding detection probability during such counts, we propose separating two components of the probability a bird is detected during a count into (1) the probability a bird vocalizes during the count and (2) the probability this vocalization is detected by an observer. In addition, we propose that some measure of the area sampled during a count is necessary for valid inferences about bird populations. This can be done by employing fixed-radius counts or more sophisticated distance-sampling models. We recommend any studies employing point counts be designed to estimate detection probability and to include a measure of the area sampled.

Book chapter↗

USGS2004

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Oecologia↗

USGS2004

Comparative dynamics of small mammal populations in treefall gaps and surrounding understorey within Amazonian rainforest

Variation in food resource availability can have profound effects on habitat selection and dynamics of populations. Previous studies reported higher food resource availability and fruit removal in treefall gaps than in the understorey. Therefore, gaps have been considered 'keystone habitat' for Neotropical frugivore birds. Here we test if this prediction would also hold for terrestrial small mammals. In the Amazon, we quantified food resource availability in eleven treefall gaps and paired understorey habitats and used feeding experiments to test if two common terrestrial rodents ( Oryzomys megacephalus and Proechimys spp.) would perceive differences between habitats. We live-trapped small mammals in eleven gaps and understorey sites for two years, and compared abundance, fitness components (survival and per capita recruitment) and dispersal of these two rodent species across gaps and understorey and seasons (rainy and dry). Our data indicated no differences in resource availability and consumption rate between habitats. Treefall gaps may represent a sink habitat for Oryzomys where individuals had lower fitness, apparently because of habitat-specific ant predation on early life stages, than in the understorey, the source habitat. Conversely, gaps may be source habitat for Proechimys where individuals had higher fitness, than in the understorey, the sink habitat. Our results suggest the presence of source-sink dynamics in a tropical gap-understorey landscape, where two rodent species perceive habitats differently. This may be a mechanism for their coexistence in a heterogeneous and species-diverse system.

World Biosphere Park Manu↗

USGS2004

Testing life history predictions in a long-lived seabird: A population matrix approach with improved parameter estimation

Life history theory and associated empirical generalizations predict that population growth rate (λ) in long-lived animals should be most sensitive to adult survival; the rates to which λ is most sensitive should be those with the smallest temporal variances; and stochastic environmental events should most affect the rates to which λ is least sensitive. To date, most analyses attempting to examine these predictions have been inadequate, their validity being called into question by problems in estimating parameters, problems in estimating the variability of parameters, and problems in measuring population sensitivities to parameters. We use improved methodologies in these three areas and test these life-history predictions in a population of red-tailed tropicbirds ( Phaethon rubricauda ). We support our first prediction that λ is most sensitive to survival rates. However the support for the second prediction that these rates have the smallest temporal variance was equivocal. Previous support for the second prediction may be an artifact of a high survival estimate near the upper boundary of 1 and not a result of natural selection canalizing variances alone. We did not support our third prediction that effects of environmental stochasticity (El Niño) would most likely be detected in vital rates to which λ was least sensitive and which are thought to have high temporal variances. Comparative data-sets on other seabirds, within and among orders, and in other locations, are needed to understand these environmental effects.

Oikos↗

USGS2004

Investigating species co-occurrence patterns when species are detected imperfectly

1. Over the last 30 years there has been a great deal of interest in investigating patterns of species co-occurrence across a number of locations, which has led to the development of numerous methods to determine whether there is evidence that a particular pattern may not have occurred by random chance. 2. A key aspect that seems to have been largely overlooked is the possibility that species may not always be detected at a location when present, which leads to 'false absences' in a species presence/absence matrix that may cause incorrect inferences to be made about co-occurrence patterns. Furthermore, many of the published methods for investigating patterns of species co-occurrence do not account for potential differences in the site characteristics that may partially (at least) explain non-random patterns (e.g. due to species having similar/different habitat preferences). 3. Here we present a statistical method for modelling co-occurrence patterns between species while accounting for imperfect detection and site characteristics. This method requires that multiple presence/absence surveys for the species be conducted over a reasonably short period of time at most sites. The method yields unbiased estimates of probabilities of occurrence, and is practical when the number of species is small (< 4). 4. To illustrate the method we consider data collected on two terrestrial salamander species, Plethodon jordani and members of the Plethodon glutinosus complex, collected in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. We find no evidence that the species do not occur independently at sites once site elevation has been allowed for, although we find some evidence of a statistical interaction between species in terms of detectability that we suggest may be due to changes in relative abundances.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗

USGS2004

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km 2 . Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km 2 ) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗