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Geology topics

J. Barry Grand

Publications and source records attributed to J. Barry Grand.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Structured decision making

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2011

Efficiency of time-lapse intervals and simple baits for camera surveys of wild pigs

Growing concerns surrounding established and expanding populations of wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) have created the need for rapid and accurate surveys of these populations. We conducted surveys of a portion of the wild pig population on Fort Benning, Georgia, to determine if a longer time‐lapse interval than had been previously used in surveys of wild pigs would generate similar detection results. We concurrently examined whether use of soured corn at camera sites affected the time necessary for pigs to locate a new camera site or the time pigs remained at a site. Our results suggest that a 9‐min time‐lapse interval generated dependable detection results for pigs and that soured corn neither attracted pigs to a site any quicker than plain, dry, whole‐kernel corn, nor held them at a site longer. Maximization of time‐lapse interval should decrease data and processing loads, and use of a simple, available bait should decrease cost and effort associated with more complicated baits; combination of these concepts should increase efficiency of wild pig surveys.

Georgia↗
USGS2011

Trap style influences wild pig behavior and trapping success

Despite the efforts of many natural resource professionals, wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) populations are expanding in many areas of the world. Although many creative techniques for controlling pig populations are being explored, trapping has been and still is the most commonly used method of population control for many public and private land managers. We conducted an observational study to examine the efficiency of 2 frequently used trap styles: a small, portable box‐style trap and a larger, semi‐permanent, corral‐style trap. We used game cameras to examine patterns of trap entry by wild pigs around each style of trap, and we conducted a trapping session to compare trapping success between trap styles. Adult female and juvenile wild pigs entered both styles of trap more readily than did adult males, and adult males seemed particularly averse to entering box traps. Less than 10% of adult male visits to box traps resulted in entries, easily the least percentage of any class at any style of trap. Adult females entered corral traps approximately 2.2 times more often per visit than box traps and re‐entered corral traps >2 times more frequently. Juveniles entered and re‐entered both box and corral traps at similar rates. Overall (all‐class) entry‐per‐visit rates at corral traps (0.71) were nearly double that of box traps (0.37). Subsequent trapping data supported these preliminary entry data; the capture rate for corral traps was >4 times that of box traps. Our data suggest that corral traps are temporally and economically superior to box traps with respect to efficiency; that is, corral traps effectively trap more pigs per trap night at a lower cost per pig than do box traps

Georgia↗
USGS2010

Variation in detection among passive infrared triggered-cameras used in wildlife research

Precise and accurate estimates of demographics such as age structure, productivity, and density are necessary in determining habitat and harvest management strategies for wildlife populations. Surveys using automated cameras are becoming an increasingly popular tool for estimating these parameters. However, most camera studies fail to incorporate detection probabilities, leading to parameter underestimation. The objective of this study was to determine the sources of heterogeneity in detection for trail cameras that incorporate a passive infrared (PIR) triggering system sensitive to heat and motion. Images were collected at four baited sites within the Conecuh National Forest, Alabama, using three cameras at each site operating continuously over the same seven-day period. Detection was estimated for four groups of animals based on taxonomic group and body size. Our hypotheses of detection considered variation among bait sites and cameras. The best model (w=0.99) estimated different rates of detection for each camera in addition to different detection rates for four animal groupings. Factors that explain this variability might include poor manufacturing tolerances, variation in PIR sensitivity, animal behavior, and species-specific infrared radiation. Population surveys using trail cameras with PIR systems must incorporate detection rates for individual cameras. Incorporating time-lapse triggering systems into survey designs should eliminate issues associated with PIR systems.

Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southe↗
USGS2009

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Survival of dusky Canada goose goslings in relation to weather and annual nest success

The dusky Canada goose ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ) population has been in long‐term decline, likely due to reduced breeding productivity, but gosling survival of this population had not been examined. We studied gosling survival in broods of radiomarked adult females on the western Copper River Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1997–1999 and 2001–2003. Survival estimates for dusky Canada goose goslings to 45 days (x̄ = 0.32) were below estimates from most previous studies of geese. Daily survival of goslings increased with age and decreased with date of hatch. Precipitation during the first 3 days post‐hatch was negatively related to gosling survival and this effect increased with date. Annual estimates of gosling survival were positively correlated with annual estimates of nest success, suggesting overlap in factors affecting nest and gosling survival. Nest success probably also directly affected gosling survival, because survival decreased with hatch date and more broods hatched from renests during years with low nest success. Gosling survival appears to play an important role in limiting current productivity of this population. Management directed at increasing nest success would likely also improve gosling survival. We recommend additional research directed at examining sources of gosling mortality and the link between nest success and gosling survival.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

Variation in northern bobwhite demography along two temporal scales

Quantification and understanding of demographic variation across intra- and inter-annual temporal scales can benefit from the development of theoretical models of evolution and applied conservation of species. We used long-term survey data for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) collected at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range to develop matrix population models which would allow investigation of intra- and inter-annual patterns in bobwhite population dynamics. We first evaluated intra-annual patterns in the importance of a seasonal demographic rate to asymptotic population growth rate with prospective perturbation analysis (elasticity analysis). We then conducted retrospective analysis (life table response experiments) of inter-annual patterns in the contribution of observed changes in demography to the observed change in population growth rate. Survival in the earliest age class during the nonbreeding season had the greatest potential influence in both the northern and southern populations. Examination of inter-annual variation in demography indicated that variation in nonbreeding season survival in the earliest age class contributed the most to observed changes in population growth rate in the northern population. In contrast, changes in fertility in the earliest age class in the southern population had the greatest influence on changes in population growth rate. Prospective elasticity analyses highlight the similarities in bobwhite demography throughout different parts of its geographic range, while retrospective life table response experiments revealed important patterns in the temporal differences of bobwhite life history at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range. ?? 2007 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Population Ecology↗
USGS2007

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2006

Correlated growth and survival of juvenile spectacled eiders: Evidence of habitat limitation?

We studied the growth and survival of Spectacled Eider ( Somateria fischeri ) ducklings to 30 days of age along the lower Kashunuk River on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta from 1995 to 2000. We replicated this study at a second site, Kigigak Island, in 1999 and 2000. Age-adjusted estimates of duckling mass and survival at 30 days posthatching were highly variable. Duckling survival was consistently higher on Kigigak Island in 1999 and 2000, averaging 67%, while survival on the Kashunuk River averaged 45% during the same time period. Duckling survival was negatively related to hatching date. At the Kashunuk River site our data supported models that indicated age-adjusted mass varied with habitat type and declined with hatching date. Ducklings from Kashunuk River were heavier in 1999, while ducklings from Kigigak Island were heavier in 2000. However, we found a positive correlation between 30-day duckling survival and age-adjusted mass, suggesting a localized environmental effect on both parameters. We conclude that predation may be the proximate mechanism of mortality, but habitat conditions are likely the ultimate factors influencing duckling survival. Geographic variation in rates of duckling survival and apparent growth suggest that spatial heterogeneity in population vital rates is occurring at multiple levels.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

The population of dusky Canada geese ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of greater scaup ( Aythya marila ) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup ( A. affinis ) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival. Greater scaup initiated egg laying later than other species, and most clutches (>80%) were initiated over 20 days each year. We located 1,056 nests; nest success ranged from 7 to 61 % among years. Following loss of their first clutch, 51 % of radio-tagged females attempted to renest. Duckling survival to 30 days of age was 37.5%. Our best model suggested that annual survival did not vary among years and averaged 81 %. Survival rate was positively related to structural body size. Only 8 of 214 banded individuals were reported as recovered (1 each in Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Alaska and 3 in California). Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Wildlife Monographs↗
USGS2002

Concentrations of trace elements in eggs and blood of spectacled and common eiders on Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA

We examined the relations among nesting success, egg viability, and blood and egg concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Hg, and Se in a threatened population of spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) and a sympatric population of common eiders (S. mollissima) on the Yukona??Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1995 and 1996. During the early breeding season, males and females had mean Se concentrations in their blood of 19.2 I?g/g and 12.8 I?g/g wet weight, respectively. Blood Se concentrations of females were correlated with egg concentrations. During brood rearing, blood Se levels were higher in adult females than in ducklings. Blood concentrations of Pb in spectacled eider females were higher than in common eider females captured at hatching, but blood concentrations of Se were similar. Trace element concentrations were not related to nest success or egg viability. We submit that nest success and egg viability of spectacled eiders are not related to concentrations of the trace elements we measured. Because blood Se concentrations declined rapidly through the breeding season and were not related to nest success or egg viability, we suggest that spectacled eiders are exposed to high concentrations of Se during winter that pose little threat to this population.

Alaska↗
USGS2001

Intraspecific variation in nutrient reserve use during clutch formation by Lesser Scaup

We studied nutrient reserve dynamics of female Lesser Scaup ( Aythya affinis ) to identify sources of intraspecific variation in strategies of nutrient acquisition for meeting the high nutritional and energetic costs of egg formation. We collected data from interior Alaska and combined these with data for Lesser Scaup from midcontinent breeding areas ( Afton and Ankney 1991 ), allowing a rangewide analysis for the species. We found little evidence that nutrient reserve use differed between Alaskan and midcontinent Lesser Scaup, except that subarctic birds used a small amount of protein reserves when forming eggs, whereas midcontinent birds did not. Mineral reserves contributed relatively little to the clutch, but endogenous lipid accounted for approximately two-thirds of the lipid in the clutch. Levels of endogenous lipid and protein at initiation of clutch formation declined with date of initiation. Also, absolute amounts of lipid and protein reserves used declined through the season, corresponding to smaller clutch sizes. Our data are consistent with a seasonally variable threshold of lipid reserves for initiation of clutch formation and considerable reliance on lipid reserves, suggestive of lipid control of productivity via effects on clutch size and initiation dates. However, our data cannot refute the hypothesis that clutch size or initiation dates are set by other factors that in turn dictate the amount of lipid reserves that are stored and used. Despite uncertainty regarding the role of nutrient limitations on productivity, maintenance of adequate food resources on winter, migration, and breeding areas should be a management concern, given the high costs of clutch formation by Lesser Scaup, evidence of recent population declines, and potential links between nutrition and productivity.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Patterns of variation in size and composition of Greater Scaup eggs: Are they related?

We studied egg size variation of Greater Scaup ( Aythya marila ) nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1991-1996. Mean egg size was 64.36±0.03 (SE) ml. Egg size did not vary with clutch size or serve as an index of body size. There was less than 2% overlap in total clutch volumes for clutches of different sizes indicating that phenotypic clutch size-egg size trade-offs are not occurring among individuals. At the population level, Greater Scaup have less variation in egg size than other species of waterfowl. The proportion of variation in egg size caused by differences among females was 0.20, caused by differences within females among years was 0.25, and caused by differences within females and years (i.e., clutches) was 0.56. The proportion of egg lipid decreased with increasing egg size while the proportion of egg protein increased with egg size. Thus, Greater Scaup appear to trade-off lipid for protein as egg size increases. The proportion of variation that was due to differences among females in total egg protein was 0.79 and in total egg lipid was 0.49. We conclude that in the absence of a fitness trade-off between clutch size and egg size, selection has reduced among-individual variation in egg size.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

Effect of lead poisoning on spectacled eider survival rates

Spectacled eider ( Somateria fischeri ) populations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, declined rapidly through the 1980s, and low adult female survival was suggested as the likely cause of the decline. We used mark-resighting techniques to study annual survival rates of adult female spectacled eiders at 2 sites on the Y-K Delta during 1993-96. Our data suggest survival rates may differ among sites. However, a model fit to a subset of data on females for which we knew lead levels in blood suggests lead exposure influences survival. Adult females exposed to lead prior to hatching their eggs survived at a much lower rate (0.44 ?? 0.10) each year than females not exposed to lead before hatch (0.78 ?? 0.05). We suggest most mortality from lead exposure occurs over winter, and the related reduction in adult survival may be impeding recovery of local populations. We encourage managers to curtail input of lead shot into the environment.

Alaska↗