Geology topics

Heather E. Johnson

Publications and source records attributed to Heather E. Johnson.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Individual and population fitness consequences associated with large carnivore use of residential development

Large carnivores are negotiating increasingly developed landscapes, but little is known about how such behavioral plasticity influences their demographic rates and population trends. Some investigators have suggested that the ability of carnivores to behaviorally adapt to human development will enable their persistence, and yet, others have suggested that such landscapes are likely to serve as population sinks or ecological traps. To understand how plasticity in black bear (Ursus americanus) use of residential development influences their population dynamics, we conducted a 6 year study near Durango, Colorado, USA. Using space-use data on individual bears, we examined the influence of use of residential development on annual measures of bear body fat, cub productivity, cub survival and adult female survival, after accounting for variation in natural food availability and individual attributes (e.g., age). We then used our field-based vital rate estimates to parameterize a matrix model that simulated asymptotic population growth for bears using residential development to different degrees. We found that bear use of residential development was highly variable within and across years, with bears increasing their foraging within development when natural foods were scarce. Increased bear use of development was associated with increased body fat and cub productivity, but reduced cub and adult survival. When these effects were simultaneously incorporated into a matrix model we found that the population was projected to decline as bear use of development increased, given that the costs of reduced survival outweighed the benefits of enhanced productivity. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding of how black bear use of residential development exerts opposing effects on different bear fitness traits and a negative effect on population growth, with the magnitude of those effects mediated by variation in environmental conditions. They also highlight the importance of monitoring bear population dynamics, particularly as shifts in bear behavior are likely to drive increases in human-bear conflicts and the perception of growing bear populations. Finally, our work emphasizes the need to consider the demographic viability of large carnivore populations when promoting the coexistence of people and carnivores on shared landscapes.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Caribou use of habitat near energy development in Arctic Alaska

Increasing demands for energy have generated interest in expanding oil and gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, raising questions about the resilience of barren-ground caribou populations to new development. Although the amount of habitat lost directly to energy development in the Arctic will likely be relatively small, there are significant concerns about habitat that may be indirectly impacted due to caribou avoidance behaviors. Behavioral responses to energy development for wildlife have been well-documented, but such responses are often assumed to dissipate over time, despite scant information on the ability of animals to habituate. To understand the long-term effects of energy development on barren-ground caribou we investigated the behavior of the Central Arctic Herd in northern Alaska, which has been exposed to oil development on its summer range for approximately 40 years. Using recent (2015-2017) location data from GPS collared females, we conducted a zone of influence analysis to assess whether caribou reduced their use of habitat near energy development, and if so, the distance the effects attenuated. We conducted this analysis for the calving, post-calving and mosquito harassment periods when caribou exhibit distinct resource selection patterns, and contrasted our results to past research that investigated the responses of the Central Arctic Caribou Herd immediately following the construction of the oil fields. Despite the long-term presence of energy development within the Central Arctic Herd summer range, we found that female caribou exhibited avoidance responses to infrastructure during all time periods, although the effects waned across the summer. Caribou reduced their use of habitat within 5 km of development during the calving period, within 2 km during the post-calving period, and within 1 km during the mosquito harassment period, areas which were predicted to overlap 12%, 15% and 17% of important calving, post-calving, and mosquito habitat areas, respectively. During the calving period, the indirect effects we observed were similar to those observed in past research, whereas during the post-calving and mosquito periods, we detected avoidance responses which had not been previously reported. These findings corroborate a growing body of evidence suggesting that habituation to industrial development in Arctic caribou is likely to be weak or absent, and emphasizes the value of minimizing the footprint of infrastructure within important seasonal habitat areas to reduce behavioral impacts to barren-ground caribou.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

A collaborative approach to bridging the gap between wildlife managers and researchers

Although most wildlife professionals agree that science should inform wildlife management decisions, disconnect still exists between researchers and managers. If researchers are not striving to incorporate their findings into management decisions, support for research programs by managers can wane. If managers are not using research findings to inform management decisions, those decisions may be less effective or more vulnerable to legal challenges. Both of these situations can have negative consequences for wildlife conservation. We outline a collaborative research‐management approach to bridging the gap between wildlife managers and researchers. We describe differences in perspectives, perceptions, and priorities between managers and researchers; outline how and why the divide between researchers and managers has likely occurred and continues to grow; and present specific strategies and recommendations to foster stronger collaborations between managers and researchers. We advocate increased synergy between managers and researchers based on a shared vision of conservation and a collaborative structure that rewards researchers and managers. Most importantly, we suggest that relationships and communication between managers and researchers must be established early in research development and decision‐making processes, fostering the trust needed for collaboration. Institutions and agencies can facilitate these relationships by creating opportunities and incentives for integrating collaborative research into management decisions. We suggest this approach will strengthen ties between researchers and managers, increase relevance of research to management decisions, promote effectiveness of management decisions, reduce legal challenges, and ultimately produce positive, tangible, and lasting effects on wildlife conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

NDVI exhibits mixed success in predicting spatiotemporal variation in caribou summer forage quality and quantity

The satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is commonly used by researchers and managers to represent ungulate forage conditions in landscapes across the globe, despite limited information about how it compares to empirical measurements of forage quality and quantity. The application of NDVI as a forage metric is particularly appealing for studying migratory caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) in remote Arctic ecosystems, where field assessments are logistically and financially prohibitive, and climate‐mediated changes in vegetation have been hypothesized to influence population declines. To determine the utility of NDVI for adequately representing caribou forage conditions, we compared NDVI derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery to empirical measures of caribou forage biomass, nitrogen, digestible nitrogen, and digestible energy within the summer range of the Central Arctic Caribou Herd on the North Slope of Alaska. Specifically, we determined the strength of forage–NDVI relationships at the start of the growing season and across the summer, assessed the efficacy of NDVI variables for modeling spatiotemporal variation in field measurements of different forage components, and used long‐term MODIS data to estimate temporal changes in forage between 2000 and 2016. We found that NDVI values were weakly correlated with caribou forage quality at the start of the growing season and throughout the summer. Although linear models of forage–NDVI relationships performed poorly, NDVI variables (NDVI and the number of days from when NDVI reached its maximum value) were useful for modeling spatiotemporal variation in empirical measurements of forage components across the growing season, but only when we incorporated nonlinear forage–NDVI relationships and other habitat covariates. Phenological advances in the date of peak NDVI were associated with significant changes in forage conditions, particularly nitrogen, which exhibited earlier seasonal declines. Using long‐term MODIS data, predicted values of forage nitrogen declined between 2000 and 2016, driven by exceedingly low values in 2014 and 2015. Given our results, we caution the application of NDVI as a general (linear) proxy of caribou forage conditions across the growing season, and encourage practitioners to use NDVI variables to model spatiotemporal variation in specific forage conditions from empirical field data, accounting for nonlinear forage–NDVI relationships.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Factors influencing elk recruitment across ecotypes in the Western United States

Ungulates are key components in ecosystems and economically important for sport and subsistence harvest. Yet the relative importance of the effects of weather conditions, forage productivity, and carnivores on ungulates are not well understood. We examined changes in elk ( Cervus canadensis ) recruitment (indexed as age ratios) across 7 states and 3 ecotypes in the northwestern United States during 1989–2010, while considering the effects of predator richness, forage productivity, and precipitation. We found a broad‐scale, long‐term decrease in elk recruitment of 0.48 juveniles/100 adult females/year. Weather conditions (indexed as summer and winter precipitation) showed small, but measurable, influences on recruitment. Forage productivity on summer and winter ranges (indexed by normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] metrics) had the strongest effect on elk recruitment relative to other factors. Relationships between forage productivity and recruitment varied seasonally and regionally. The productivity of winter habitat was more important in southern parts of the study area, whereas annual variation in productivity of summer habitat had more influence on recruitment in northern areas. Elk recruitment varied by up to 15 juveniles/100 adult females across the range of variation in forage productivity. Areas with more species of large carnivores had relatively low elk recruitment, presumably because of increased predation. Wolves ( Canis lupus ) were associated with a decrease of 5 juveniles/100 adult females, whereas grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) were associated with an additional decrease of 7 juveniles/100 adult females. Carnivore species can have a critical influence on ungulate recruitment because their influence rivals large ranges of variation in environmental conditions. A more pressing concern, however, stems from persistent broad‐scale decreases in recruitment across the distribution of elk in the northwestern United States, irrespective of carnivore richness. Our results suggest that wildlife managers interested in improving recruitment of elk consider the combined effects of habitat and predators. Efforts to manage summer and winter ranges to increase forage productivity may have a positive effect on recruitment.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Summary of wildlife-related research on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, 2002–17

We summarize recent (2002–17) publicly available information from studies within the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as terrestrial and coastal ecosystems elsewhere on the Arctic Coastal Plain that are relevant to the 1002 Area. This report provides an update on earlier research summaries on caribou (Rangifer tarandus), forage quality and quantity, polar bears (Ursus maritimus), muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), and snow geese (Chen caerulescens). We also provide information on new research related to climate, migratory birds, permafrost, coastal erosion, coastal lagoons, fish, water resources, and potential effects of industrial disturbance on wildlife. From this literature review, we noted evidence for change in the status of some wildlife and their habitats, and the lack of change for others. In the 1002 Area, muskox numbers have decreased and the Porcupine Caribou Herd has exhibited variation in use of the area during the calving season. Polar bears are now more common on shore in summer and fall because of declines in sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. In a study spanning 25 years, there were no significant changes in vegetation quality and quantity, soil conditions, or permafrost thaw in the coastal plain of the 1002 Area. Based on studies from the central Arctic Coastal Plain, there are persistent and emerging uncertainties about the long-term effects of energy development for caribou. In contrast, recent studies that examined direct and indirect effects of industrial activities and infrastructure on birds in the central Arctic Coastal Plain found little effect for the species and disturbances examined, except for the possibility of increased predator activity near human developments.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Detection of microcystin and other cyanotoxins in lakes at Isle Royale National Park, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, northern Michigan, 2012–13

Although cyanotoxins released during algal blooms have become an increasing concern in surface waters across the United States, the presence of cyanotoxins in northern Michigan lakes had not been evaluated in detail. The U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service (NPS) led a 2-year study (2012 and 2013) to determine the presence of microcystin and other algal toxins in several inland lakes at Isle Royale National Park (hereafter referred to as ISRO, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore (hereafter referred to as PIRO), and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (hereafter referred to as SLBE). Samples also were collected at four sites in Lake Michigan within the SLBE. The two analytical techniques used in the study were enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for microcystin, cylindrospermopsin, and saxitoxin; and liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) for a larger suite of algal toxins. Neither cylindrospermopsin nor saxitoxin were detected in the 211 samples. Microcystin was detected in 31 percent of samples (65 of 211 samples) analyzed by the ELISA method, but no sample results exceeded the World Health Organization recreational health advisory standard for microcystin (10 micrograms per liter [µg/L]). However, about 10 percent of the samples (21 of 211 samples) that were collected from PIRO and SLBE and were analyzed by ELISA for microcystin had concentrations greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking water 10-day health advisory of 0.3 µg/L for children preschool age and younger (less than 6-years old). One sample collected in 2012 from SLBE exceeded the EPA drinking water 10-day health advisory of 1.6 µg/L for school-age children through adults (6-years old and older). In 2012, the highest concentration of 2.7 µg/L was detected in Florence Lake within SLBE. Many visitors enjoy recreation in or on the water and camp in the backcountry at these national parks where the most common source of drinking water is filtered surface water. Approximately 18 percent of the samples (39 of 211 samples) were analyzed by LC/MS/MS to confirm the ELISA results and to evaluate the samples for a larger suite of algal toxins. In general, the microcystin results between the ELISA and LC/MS/MS methods were similar; although, the ELISA results tended to be slightly higher than the summation of LC/MS/MS microcystin congeners. The slightly higher ELISA results might be because the ELISA microcystin method is reactive with the ADDA functional group common to all microcystins, and because not all microcystin congeners are included in the LC/MS/MS method. The LC/MS/MS method indicated that the congener microcystin-LR was the most frequently detected, followed by microcystin-WR and microcystin-YR. Sixteen of the lakes included in this study also were monitored by the NPS for nutrients. Total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were, on average, highest at the ISRO lakes, whereas total nitrogen (TN) concentrations were highest at SLBE. The average annual TN:TP ratios for the 16 lakes within the national park and national lakeshores ranged from ratios of 20 to 89. Overall, results indicated a slight increase in percentage of microcystin detections with an increase in the TN:TP ratio (R-squared 0.269 and 0.340, respectively [2012 and 2013 combined dataset] derived from linear regression). This study also indicated that even in the absence of visible algal blooms, microcystin may be present. Most microcystin concentrations did not exceed the EPA’s 10-day health advisory drinking-water benchmark. In general, these results provide a useful baseline with which to evaluate potential future changes in algal toxin concentrations.

Michigan↗

USGS2017

Influence of precipitation and crop germination on resource selection by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in southwest Colorado

Mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km 2 , and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km 2 . Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2016

Contamination with bacterial zoonotic pathogen genes in U.S. streams influenced by varying types of animal agriculture

Animal waste, stream water, and streambed sediment from 19 small (< 32 km 2 ) watersheds in 12 U.S. states having either no major animal agriculture (control, n = 4), or predominantly beef ( n = 4), dairy ( n = 3), swine ( n = 5), or poultry ( n = 3) were tested for: 1) cholesterol, coprostanol, estrone, and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations, and 2) shiga-toxin producing and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli , Salmonella , Campylobacter , and pathogenic and vancomycin-resistant enterococci by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on enrichments, and/or direct quantitative PCR. Pathogen genes were most frequently detected in dairy wastes, followed by beef, swine and poultry wastes in that order; there was only one detection of an animal-source-specific pathogen gene ( stx1 ) in any water or sediment sample in any control watershed. Post-rainfall pathogen gene numbers in stream water were significantly correlated with FIB, cholesterol and coprostanol concentrations, and were most highly correlated in dairy watershed samples collected from 3 different states. Although collected across multiple states and ecoregions, animal-waste gene profiles were distinctive via discriminant analysis. Stream water gene profiles could also be discriminated by the watershed animal type. Although pathogen genes were not abundant in stream water or streambed samples, PCR on enrichments indicated that many genes were from viable organisms, including several (shiga-toxin producing or enterotoxigenic E. coli , Salmonella , vancomycin-resistant enterococci) that could potentially affect either human or animal health. Pathogen gene numbers and types in stream water samples were influenced most by animal type, by local factors such as whether animals had stream access, and by the amount of local rainfall, and not by studied watershed soil or physical characteristics. Our results indicated that stream water in small agricultural U.S. watersheds was susceptible to pathogen gene inputs under typical agricultural practices and environmental conditions. Pathogen gene profiles may offer the potential to address both source of, and risks associated with, fecal pollution.

Arizona, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michig↗

USGS2015

Genes indicative of zoonotic and swine pathogens are persistent in stream water and sediment following a swine manure spill

Manure spills to streams are relatively frequent, but no studies have characterized stream contamination with zoonotic and veterinary pathogens, or fecal chemicals, following a spill. We tested stream water and sediment over 25 days and downstream for 7.6 km for: fecal indicator bacteria (FIB); the fecal indicator chemicals cholesterol and coprostanol; 20 genes for zoonotic and swine-specific bacterial pathogens by presence/absence polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for viable cells; one swine-specific Escherichia coli toxin gene ( STII ) by quantitative PCR (qPCR); and nine human and animal viruses by qPCR, or reverse-transcriptase qPCR. Twelve days post-spill, and 4.2 km downstream, water concentrations of FIB, cholesterol, and coprostanol were 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than those detected before, or above, the spill, and genes indicating viable zoonotic or swine-infectious Escherichia coli , were detected in water or sediment. STII increased from undetectable before, or above the spill, to 10 5 copies/100 mL water 12 days post-spill. Thirteen of 14 water (8/9 sediment) samples had viable STII -carrying cells post-spill. Eighteen days post-spill porcine adenovirus and teschovirus were detected 5.6 km downstream. Sediment FIB concentrations (per gram wet weight) were greater than in water, and sediment was a continuous reservoir of genes and chemicals post-spill. Constituent concentrations were much lower, and detections less frequent, in a runoff event (200 days post-spill) following manure application, although the swine-associated STII and stx 2e genes were detected. Manure spills are an underappreciated pathway for livestock-derived contaminants to enter streams, with persistent environmental outcomes, and the potential for human and veterinary health consequences.

Iowa↗

USGS2015

Occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria and gene markers of pathogenic bacteria in Great Lakes tributaries, March-October 2011

From March through October 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), conducted a study to determine the frequency of occurrence of pathogen gene markers and densities of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in 22 tributaries to the Great Lakes. This project was funded as part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) and included sampling at 22 locations throughout 6 states that border the Great Lakes. A total of 177 environmental samples were collected at USGS streamgaging stations during both normal-flow and high-flow conditions and were analyzed by the Michigan Bacteriological Research Laboratory at the USGS Water Science Center in Lansing, Michigan. Water samples were analyzed for the presence of FIB concentrations (FIB; fecal coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli [ E. coli ], and enterococci) by using membrane filtration and serial dilution methods. The resulting enrichments from standard culturing of the samples were then analyzed by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to determine the occurrence of pathogen gene markers for Shigella species, Campylobacter jejuni and coli , Salmonella species, and pathogenic E. coli , including Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC).

Great Lakes↗

USGS2014

Staphylococcus aureus and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) at ambient freshwater beaches

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are a threat to human health worldwide, and although detected at marine beaches, they have been largely unstudied at freshwater beaches. Genes indicating S. aureus (SA; femA) and methicillin resistance (mecA) were detected at 11 and 12 of 13 US Great Lakes beaches and in 18% or 27% of 287 recreational water samples, respectively. Eight beaches had mecA + femA (potential MRSA) detections. During an intensive study, higher bather numbers, staphylococci concentrations, and femA detections were found in samples collected after noon than before noon. Local population density, beach cloud cover, and beach wave height were significantly correlated with SA or MRSA detection frequency. The Panton-Valentine leukocidin gene, associated with community-acquired MRSA, was detected in 12 out of 27 potential MRSA samples. The femA gene was detected less frequently at beaches that met US enterococci criteria or EU enterococci ‘excellent’ recreational water quality, but was not related to Escherichia coli-defined criteria. Escherichia coli is often the only indicator used to determine water quality at US beaches, given the economic and healthcare burden that can be associated with infections caused by SA and MRSA, monitoring of recreational waters for non-fecal bacteria such as staphylococci and/or SA may be warranted.

Journal of Water and Health↗

USGS2014

Marsh soils as potential sinks for Bacteroides fecal indicator bacteria, Waccamaw National Wildlife Refuge, Georgetown, SC, USA

A soil core collected in a tidal freshwater marsh in the Waccamaw National Wildlife Refuge (Georgetown, SC) exuded a particularly strong odor of cow manure upon extrusion. In order to test for manure and determine its provenance, we carried out microbial source tracking using DNA markers for Bacteroides, a noncoliform, anaerobic bacterial group that represents a broad group of the fecal population. Three core sections from 0-3 cm, 9-12 cm and 30-33 were analyzed for the presence of Bacteroides. The ages of core sediments were estimated using 210Pb and 137Cs dating. All three core sections tested positive for Bacteroides DNA markers related to cow or deer feces. Because cow manure is stockpiled, used as fertilizer, and a source of direct contamination in the Great Pee Dee River/Winyah Bay watershed, it is very likely the source of the Bacteroides that was deposited on the marsh. The mid-points of the core sections were dated as follows: 0-3 cm: 2009; 9-12 cm: 1999, and 30-33 cm: 1961. The presence of Bacteroides at different depths/ages in the soil profile indicates that soils in tidal freshwater marshes are, at the least, capable of being short-term sinks for Bacteroides and, may have the potential to be long-term sinks of stable, naturalized populations.

South Carolina↗

USGS2013

Geographic setting influences Great Lakes beach microbiological water quality

Understanding of factors that influence Escherichia coli (EC) and enterococci (ENT) concentrations, pathogen occurrence, and microbial sources at Great Lakes beaches comes largely from individual beach studies. Using 12 representative beaches, we tested enrichment cultures from 273 beach water and 22 tributary samples for EC, ENT, and genes indicating the bacterial pathogens Shiga-toxin producing E. coli (STEC), Shigella spp., Salmonella spp, Campylobacter jejuni/coli, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and 108–145 samples for Bacteroides human, ruminant, and gull source-marker genes. EC/ENT temporal patterns, general Bacteroides concentration, and pathogen types and occurrence were regionally consistent (up to 40 km), but beach catchment variables (drains/creeks, impervious surface, urban land cover) influenced exceedances of EC/ENT standards and detections of Salmonella and STEC. Pathogen detections were more numerous when the EC/ENT Beach Action Value (but not when the Geometric Mean and Statistical Threshold Value) was exceeded. EC, ENT, and pathogens were not necessarily influenced by the same variables. Multiple Bacteroides sources, varying by date, occurred at every beach. Study of multiple beaches in different geographic settings provided new insights on the contrasting influences of regional and local variables, and a broader-scale perspective, on significance of EC/ENT exceedances, bacterial sources, and pathogen occurrence.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2013

Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

Colorado;Idaho;Montana;Utah;Washington;Wyoming↗

USGS2013

Predictive models for Escherichia coli concentrations at inland lake beaches and relationship of model variables to pathogen detection

Predictive models, based on environmental and water quality variables, have been used to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water quality assessments, but their effectiveness has not been studied in inland waters. Sampling at eight inland recreational lakes in Ohio was done in order to investigate using predictive models for Escherichia coli and to understand the links between E. coli concentrations, predictive variables, and pathogens. Based upon results from 21 beach sites, models were developed for 13 sites, and the most predictive variables were rainfall, wind direction and speed, turbidity, and water temperature. Models were not developed at sites where the E. coli standard was seldom exceeded. Models were validated at nine sites during an independent year. At three sites, the model resulted in increased correct responses, sensitivities, and specificities compared to use of the previous day's E. coli concentration (the current method). Drought conditions during the validation year precluded being able to adequately assess model performance at most of the other sites. Cryptosporidium , adenovirus, eaeA ( E. coli ), ipaH ( Shigella ), and spvC ( Salmonella ) were found in at least 20% of samples collected for pathogens at five sites. The presence or absence of the three bacterial genes was related to some of the model variables but was not consistently related to E. coli concentrations. Predictive models were not effective at all inland lake sites; however, their use at two lakes with high swimmer densities will provide better estimates of public health risk than current methods and will be a valuable resource for beach managers and the public.

Ohio↗

USGS2013

Evaluation of potential sources and transport mechanisms of fecal indicator bacteria to beach water, Murphy Park Beach, Door County, Wisconsin

Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) concentrations in beach water have been used for many years as a criterion for closing beaches due to potential health concerns. Yet, current understanding of sources and transport mechanisms that drive FIB occurrence remains insufficient for accurate prediction of closures at many beaches. Murphy Park Beach, a relatively pristine beach on Green Bay in Door County, Wis., was selected for a study to evaluate FIB sources and transport mechanisms. Although the relatively pristine nature of the beach yielded no detection of pathogenic bacterial genes and relatively low FIB concentrations during the study period compared with other Great Lakes Beaches, its selection limited the number of confounding FIB sources and associated transport mechanisms. The primary sources of FIB appear to be internal to the beach rather than external sources such as rivers, storm sewer outfalls, and industrial discharges. Three potential FIB sources were identified: sand, swash-zone groundwater, and Cladophora mats. Modest correlations between FIB concentrations in these potential source reservoirs and FIB concentrations at the beach from the same day illustrate the importance of understanding transport mechanisms between FIB sources and the water column. One likely mechanism for transport and dispersion of FIB from sand and Cladophora sources appears to be agitation of Cladophora mats and erosion of beach sand due to storm activity, as inferred from storm indicators including turbidity, wave height, current speed, wind speed, sky visibility, 24-hour precipitation, and suspended particulate concentration. FIB concentrations in beach water had a statistically significant relation (p-value &lsaquo;0.05) with the magnitude of these storm indicators. In addition, transport of FIB in swash-zone groundwater into beach water appears to be driven by groundwater recharge associated with multiday precipitation and corresponding increased swash-zone groundwater discharge at the beach, as indicated by an increase in the specific conductance of beach water. Understanding the dynamics of FIB sources (sand, swash-zone groundwater, and Cladophora ) and transport mechanisms (dispersion and erosion from storm energy, and swash-zone groundwater discharge) is important for improving predictions of potential health risks from FIB in beach water.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Effect of rainbow trout size on response to rotenone and antimycin

The piscicides rotenone and antimycin are commonly used to eradicate unwanted fish populations. However, the relationships (if present) between their toxicities and fish sizes are unknown and could be especially important when bioassay fish are used to detect piscicide presence and effectiveness. Size-mediated toxicity could lead to either excessive or inadequate piscicide applications if bioassay fish are larger or smaller than the fish being eradicated. The relationships between time to death and weight of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (0.7–574.0 g) at an antimycin concentration of 7.5 μg/L and a rotenone concentration of 12.5 μg/L were determined. Antimycin took significantly longer than rotenone to kill rainbow trout at concentrations typically used in eradication projects. Significant positive relationships existed between fish size and time to death for rotenone and antimycin exposures and were probably caused by size-mediated differences in metabolic rate; however, these relationships accounted for less than 21% of the variation in time to death. Smaller fish appeared to be affected by the chemicals more quickly, but their deaths did not consistently occur before the deaths of larger fish.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗