Garrett W. Meigs | Search USGS

USGS2025

Conserving climate-change refugia: Insights from research and practice

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2021

Fire refugia in old-growth forests: Predicting habitat persistence to support land management in an era of rapid global change

Recent stand-replacing wildfires in late-successional and old-growth (LSOG) forests have increased land manager interest in fire refugia, which could provide vital habitat for threatened and endangered species during a time of rapid change. The overall goal of this project was to model, map, and share information essential for the conservation of LSOG forest ecosystems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, within a diverse co-production team of state and federal land managers. We developed statistical models of contemporary (2002-2017) fire refugia, non-stand-replacing fire (NSR), and high-severity fire based on topography, fuels, fire weather, fire behavior and climate. Independent models were built for two ecoregions (Figure 1), one encompassing the Douglas-fir/western hemlock forests of the northwestern portion of our study area and the other encompassing dry-mixed conifer forests of the eastern Cascades and Klamath-Siskiyou region. We used these models to produce probability surface maps for fire refugia, NSR, and high-severity fire under low, moderate, and extreme fire weather and fire growth scenarios. These maps and associated products provide timely information about the likely persistence, change, and loss of LSOG forests under current and future climate conditions.

California, Oregon, Washington↗