Geology topics

Eric L. Geist

Publications and source records attributed to Eric L. Geist.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Near-field tsunami edge waves and complex earthquake rupture

The effect of distributed coseismic slip on progressive, near-field edge waves is examined for continental shelf tsunamis. Detailed observations of edge waves are difficult to separate from the other tsunami phases that are observed on tide gauge records. In this study, analytic methods are used to compute tsunami edge waves distributed over a finite number of modes and for uniformly sloping bathymetry. Coseismic displacements from static elastic theory are introduced as initial conditions in calculating the evolution of progressive edge-waves. Both simple crack representations (constant stress drop) and stochastic slip models (heterogeneous stress drop) are tested on a fault with geometry similar to that of the M w = 8.8 2010 Chile earthquake. Crack-like ruptures that are beneath or that span the shoreline result in similar longshore patterns of maximum edge-wave amplitude. Ruptures located farther offshore result in reduced edge-wave excitation, consistent with previous studies. Introduction of stress-drop heterogeneity by way of stochastic slip models results in significantly more variability in longshore edge-wave patterns compared to crack-like ruptures for the same offshore source position. In some cases, regions of high slip that are spatially distinct will yield sub-events, in terms of tsunami generation. Constructive interference of both non-trapped and trapped waves can yield significantly larger tsunamis than those that produced by simple earthquake characterizations.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2012

Submarine slides north of Puerto Rico and their tsunami potential

New multibeam bathymetry of the entire Puerto Rico trench reveals numerous retrograde slope failures at various scales at the edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The slumped material comprises carbonate blocks, which fail, at least in initial stages, as a coherent rock mass. This, combined with the fact that the edge of the carbonate platform is steeper than most continental slopes, indicates a higher potential for tsunami run-up than along many other U.S. coasts. The style of slope failure appears to be rock falls, slide blocks and debris avalanches. Secondary failure of the failed carbonate products and of the underlying forearc sediments and rocks may lead to debris flows and turbidity flows. Fissures, discovered in the ocean floor near the edge of the platform, indicate that the process is expected to continue in the future. One of the slope failures, the Arecibo amphitheater, previously thought to represent a single giant slide with a volume of 900-1500 cu. km, appears to comprise smaller failures. The expected maximum tsunami run-up on the northern coast of Puerto Rico from one of these slope failures is <20 m, much lower than previously estimated. A recurrence rate of 100s kyr was calculated for the largest observed failures along the edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico using simple assumptions. Smaller landslides would presumably occur at a higher recurrence rate. Elsewhere around the island, a 20-km wide failure scarp was discovered in the Upper Mona rift and could be associated with the 1918 tsunami and earthquake that hit northwestern Puerto Rico. Large slope failures were also discovered for the first time on the northern side of the Puerto Rico trench. Because Puerto Rico trench slides occur at large water depths (~6000 m), have large horizontal and vertical dimensions, and the directivity from tsunamis emanating from these slides is toward Puerto Rico, they may be of particular concern and may necessitate further study.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2012

Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R 2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

Advances in Geophysics↗

USGS2011

Book review: Extreme ocean waves

‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. Review info: Extreme Ocean Waves . By E. Pelinovsky and C. Kharif (eds), 2008. ISBN: 978-1402083136, xiii, 196 pp.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2011

Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform

Nonlinear Ocean Waves and the Inverse Scattering Transform is a comprehensive examination of ocean waves built upon the theory of nonlinear Fourier analysis. The renowned author, Alfred R. Osborne, is perhaps best known for the discovery of internal solitons in the Andaman Sea during the 1970s. In this book, he provides an extensive treatment of nonlinear water waves based on a nonlinear spectral theory known as the inverse scattering transform. The writing is exceptional throughout the book, which is particularly useful in explaining some of the more difficult mathematical concepts. Review info: N onlinear Ocean Waves and the Inverse Scattering Transform. B y Alfred R. Osborne, 2010. ISBN: 978-125286299, 917 pp.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2011

Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean

Rogue Waves in the Ocean (2009) is a follow-on text to Extreme Ocean Waves (2008) edited by Pelinovsky and Kharif, both published by Springer. Unlike the earlier text, which is a compilation of papers on a variety of extreme waves that was the subject of a scientific conference in 2007, Rogues Waves in the Ocean is written, rather than edited, by Kharif, Pelinovsky, and Slunyaev and is focused on rogue waves in particular. The book consists of six chapters covering 216 pages. As the subject matter of each chapter is distinct, references appear at the end of each chapter rather than at the end of the book. The preface shows how each of the chapters relates to the larger study of rogue waves. The result is a book with a nice mix of eyewitness observations, physical theory, and statistics. Review info: Rogue Waves in the Ocean. Advances in Geophysical and Environmental Mechanics and Mathematics. B y Christian Kharif, Efim Pelinovsky and Alexey Slunyaev, 2009. ISBN: 978-3540884187, xiii, 216 pp.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2010

Large-scale deformation related to the collision of the Aleutian Arc with Kamchatka

The far western Aleutian Island Arc is actively colliding with Kamchatka. Westward motion of the Aleutian Arc is brought about by the tangential relative motion of the Pacific plate transferred to major, right-lateral shear zones north and south of the arc. Early geologic mapping of Cape Kamchatka (a promontory of Kamchatka along strike with the Aleutian Arc) revealed many similarities to the geology of the Aleutian Islands. Later studies support the notion that Cape Kamchatka is the farthest west Aleutian “island” and that it has been accreted to Kamchatka by the process of arc-continent collision. Deformation associated with the collision onshore Kamchatka includes gravimetrically determined crustal thickening and formation of a narrow thrust belt of intensely deformed rocks directly west of Cape Kamchatka. The trend of the thrust faults is concave toward the collision zone, indicating a radial distribution of maximum horizontal compressive stress. Offshore, major crustal faults trend either oblique to the Kamchatka margin or parallel to major Aleutian shear zones. These offshore faults are complex, accommodating both strike-slip and thrust displacements as documented by focal mechanisms and seismic reflection data. Earthquake activity is much higher in the offshore region within a zone bounded to the north by the northernmost Aleutian shear zone and to the west by an apparent aseismic front. Analysis of focal mechanisms in the region indicate that the present-day arc-continent “contact zone” is located directly east of Cape Kamchatka. In modeling the dynamics of the collision zone using thin viscous sheet theory, the rheological parameters are only partially constrained to values of n (the effective power law exponent) ≥ 3 and Ar (the Argand number) ≤ 30. These values are consistent with a forearc thermal profile of Kamchatka, previously determined from heat flow modeling. The thin viscous sheet modeling also indicates that onshore thrust faulting is a consequence, not only of compressive stresses resulting from the west directed collision, but also of sediment-induced coupling of the subducting Pacific plate.

Kamchatka Peninsula↗

USGS2010

Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel

The focus of Parsons and Geist (2009) was to test whether the key observational data used in earthquake forecasting necessitate a characteristic earthquake rupture model. The point of our article was not to suggest that a specific form of the Gutenberg–Richter earthquake distribution is a perfect representation of reality. The uncertainties surrounding event slip estimates, paleoseismic event rates, and observed a and b values in catalog magnitude–frequency distributions are broad. So broad, in fact, that giving full weight to just one model of earthquake rupture behavior in formal forecasting is unjustified. Further, the characteristic earthquake model requires definition of rupture segments, which introduces a series of unquantifiable uncertainties that are seldom addressed in forecasts (e.g., Field et al., 2009).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2010

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Distribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a geologically diverse ocean basin that includes three distinct geologic provinces: a carbonate province, a salt province, and canyon to deep-sea fan province, all of which contain evidence of submarine mass movements. The threat of submarine landslides in the GOM as a generator of near-field damaging tsunamis has not been widely addressed. Submarine landslides in the GOM are considered a potential tsunami hazard because: (1) some dated landslides in the GOM have post-glacial ages and (2) recent seismicity recorded within the GOM. We present a brief review of the distribution and style of submarine landslides that have occurred in the GOM during the Quaternary, followed by preliminary hydrodynamic modeling results of tsunami generation from the East Breaks landslide off Corpus Christie, TX.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?

The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture model can grow into a complex task laden with unquantified uncertainty. We weigh the evidence that supports characteristic earthquakes against a potentially simpler model made from extrapolation of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude-frequency law to individual fault zones. We find that the Gutenberg–Richter model satisfies key data constraints used for earthquake forecasting equally well as a characteristic model. Therefore, judicious use of instrumental and historical earthquake catalogs enables large-earthquake-rate calculations with quantifiable uncertainty that should get at least equal weighting in probabilistic forecasting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Chapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup

Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

Advances in Geophysics↗

USGS2008

Submarine landslide as the source for the October 11, 1918 Mona Passage tsunami: Observations and modeling

The October 11, 1918 ML 7.5 earthquake in the Mona Passage between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico generated a local tsunami that claimed approximately 100 lives along the western coast of Puerto Rico. The area affected by this tsunami is now significantly more populated. Newly acquired high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection lines in the Mona Passage show a fresh submarine landslide 15 km northwest of Rinćon in northwestern Puerto Rico and in the vicinity of the first published earthquake epicenter. The landslide area is approximately 76 km2 and probably displaced a total volume of 10 km3. The landslide's headscarp is at a water depth of 1200 m, with the debris flow extending to a water depth of 4200 m. Submarine telegraph cables were reported cut by a landslide in this area following the earthquake, further suggesting that the landslide was the result of the October 11, 1918 earthquake. On the other hand, the location of the previously suggested source of the 1918 tsunami, a normal fault along the east wall of Mona Rift, does not show recent seafloor rupture. Using the extended, weakly non-linear hydrodynamic equations implemented in the program COULWAVE, we modeled the tsunami as generated by a landslide with a duration of 325 s (corresponding to an average speed of ~ 27 m/s) and with the observed dimensions and location. Calculated marigrams show a leading depression wave followed by a maximum positive amplitude in agreement with the reported polarity, relative amplitudes, and arrival times. Our results suggest this newly-identified landslide, which was likely triggered by the 1918 earthquake, was the primary cause of the October 11, 1918 tsunami and not the earthquake itself. Results from this study should be useful to help discern poorly constrained tsunami sources in other case studies.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2008

Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting proposed liquefied natural gas site in Santa Monica Bay, California

In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposed LNG facilities offshore Ventura County, Calif., with a report summarizing potential geologic and seismic hazards (Ross and others, 2004). The proposed LNG Deepwater Port (DWP) facility includes single point moorings (SPMs) and 35 miles of underwater pipelines. The DWP submersible buoys, manifolds, and risers would be situated on the floor of the southern Santa Monica Basin, in 3,000 feet of water, about 23 miles offshore of the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Twin 24-inch diameter pipelines would extend northeastward from the buoys across the basin floor, up the basin slope and across the continental shelf, skirting north around the Santa Monica submarine canyon. Figure 1 provides locations of the project and geologic features. Acronyms are defined in table 1. This facility is being proposed in a region of known geologic hazards that arise from both the potential for strong earthquakes and geologic processes related to sediment transport and accumulation in the offshore environment. The probability of a damaging earthquake (considered here as magnitude 6.5 or greater) in the next 30 years within about 30 miles (50 km) of the proposed pipeline ranges from 16% at the pipeline's offshore end to 48% where it nears land (Petersen, 2008). Earthquakes of this magnitude are capable of producing strong shaking, surface fault offsets, liquefaction phenomena, landslides, underwater turbidity currents and debris flow avalanches, and tsunamis. As part of the DWP license application for the Woodside Natural Gas proposal in Santa Monica Bay (known as the OceanWay Secure Energy Project), Fugro West, Inc., had already prepared a document discussing geologic hazards in the area, titled 'Exhibit B Topic Report 6 - Geological Resources' (Fugro West, Inc., 2007); hereafter, this will be called the 'Geological Resources document'. The USGS agreed to evaluate the information in the Geological Resources document regarding (1) proximity of active faults to the proposed project, (2) potential magnitude of seismic events from nearby faults, (3) thoroughness of the assessment of earthquake hazards in general, (4) potential hazards from ground rupture and strong shaking, (5) potential hazards from tsunamis, and (6) other geologic hazards including landslides and debris flows. Because two new earthquake probability reports were scheduled to be released in mid-April, 2008, by the USGS and the California Geological Survey (CGS), the USGS suggested a 6-month review period to enable a thorough incorporation of this new information. Twenty-seven scientists from the USGS and the CGS reviewed various sections of the Geological Resources document. This report outlines our major conclusions. The appendix is a longer list of comments by these reviewers, grouped by section of the Geological Resources document. Before discussing our reviews, we first provide a brief overview of geologic hazards in the proposed site area. This report is a snapshot in time and any future work in the area will need to take into account ongoing research efforts. For example, USGS scientists collected seismic reflection data in the spring of 2008 to study the structure and seismic potential of several faults in the area. Their interpretations (Conrad and others, 2008a and 2008b) are too preliminary to be included in this report, but their final results, along with other researchers' studies in the project area, should be considered in any future work on the Deepwater Port project.

California↗

USGS2008

Preliminary results of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission collaborative research program to assess tsunami hazard for nuclear power plants on the Atlantic and gulf coasts

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear facilities in the United States. For this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other key researchers for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. The initial phase of this work consisted principally of collection, interpretation, and analysis of available offshore data and information. Necessarily, the US NRC research program includes both seismic- and landslide-based tsunamigenic sources in both the near and the far fields. The inclusion of tsunamigenic landslides, an important category of sources that impact tsunami hazard levels for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts over the long time periods of interest to the US NRC is a key difference between this program and most other tsunami hazard assessment programs. Although only a few years old, this program is already producing results that both support current US NRC activities and look toward the long-term goal of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. This paper provides a summary of results from several areas of current research. An overview of the broader US NRC research program is provided in a companion paper in this conference.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2007

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (M w 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (M w 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2007

Preliminary analysis of the earthquake (MW 8.1) and tsunami of April 1, 2007, in the Solomon Islands, southwestern Pacific Ocean

On April 1, 2007, a destructive earthquake (Mw 8.1) and tsunami struck the central Solomon Islands arc in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. The earthquake had a thrust-fault focal mechanism and occurred at shallow depth (between 15 km and 25 km) beneath the island arc. The combined effects of the earthquake and tsunami caused dozens of fatalities and thousands remain without shelter. We present a preliminary analysis of the Mw-8.1 earthquake and resulting tsunami. Multichannel seismic-reflection data collected during 1984 show the geologic structure of the arc's frontal prism within the earthquake's rupture zone. Modeling tsunami-wave propagation indicates that some of the islands are so close to the earthquake epicenter that they were hard hit by tsunami waves as soon as 5 min. after shaking began, allowing people scant time to react.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗

USGS2007

GIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps

A Tsunami Pilot Study was conducted for the area surrounding the coastal town of Seaside, Oregon, as part of the Federal Emergency Management's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Cascadia subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities subject to tsunamis generated by far- and near-field (Cascadia) earthquakes. Two goals of the pilot study were to develop probabilistic 100-year and 500-year tsunami inundation maps using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) and to provide recommendations for improving tsunami hazard assessment guidelines for FEMA and state and local agencies. The study was an interagency effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, and FEMA, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. The pilot study model data and results are published separately as a geographic information systems (GIS) data report (Wong and others, 2006). The flood maps and GIS data are briefly described here.

Oregon↗