Geology topics

Eric L. Geist

Publications and source records attributed to Eric L. Geist.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Great (≥Mw8.0) megathrust earthquakes and the subduction of excess sediment and bathymetrically smooth seafloor

Using older and in part flawed data, Ruff (1989) suggested that thick sediment entering the subduction zone (SZ) smooths and strengthens the trench-parallel distribution of interplate coupling. This circumstance was conjectured to favor rupture continuation and the generation of high-magnitude (≥Mw8.0) interplate thrust (IPT) earthquakes. Using larger and more accurate compilations of sediment thickness and instrumental (1899 to January 2013) and pre-instrumental era (1700–1898) IPTs (n = 176 and 12, respectively), we tested if a compelling relation existed between where IPT earthquakes ≥Mw7.5 occurred and where thick (≥1.0 km) versus thin (≤1.0 km) sedimentary sections entered the SZ. Based on the new compilations, a statistically supported statement (see Summary and Conclusions) can be made that high-magnitude earthquakes are most prone to nucleate at well-sedimented SZs. For example, despite the 7500 km shorter global length of thick-sediment trenches, they account for &sim;53% of instrumental era IPTs ≥Mw8.0, &sim;75% ≥Mw8.5, and 100% ≥Mw9.1. No megathrusts >Mw9.0 ruptured at thin-sediment trenches, whereas three occurred at thick-sediment trenches (1960 Chile Mw9.5, 1964 Alaska Mw9.2, and 2004 Sumatra Mw9.2). However, large Mw8.0–9.0 IPTs commonly (n = 23) nucleated at thin-sediment trenches. These earthquakes are associated with the subduction of low-relief ocean floor and where the debris of subduction erosion thickens the plate-separating subduction channel. The combination of low bathymetric relief and subduction erosion is inferred to also produce a smooth trench-parallel distribution of coupling posited to favor the characteristic lengthy rupturing of high-magnitude IPT earthquakes. In these areas subduction of a weak sedimentary sequence further enables rupture continuation.

Geosphere↗

USGS2014

Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez

Like many subduction zone earthquakes, the deadliest aspects of the 1964 M = 9.2 Alaska earthquake were the tsunamis it caused. The worst of these were generated by local submarine landslides induced by the earthquake. These caused high runups, engulfing several coastal towns in Prince William Sound. In this paper, we study one of these cases in detail, the Port Valdez submarine landslide and tsunami. We combine eyewitness reports, preserved film, and careful posttsunami surveys with new geophysical data to inform numerical models for landslide tsunami generation. We review the series of events as recorded at Valdez old town and then determine the corresponding subsurface events that led to the tsunami. We build digital elevation models of part of the pretsunami and posttsunami fjord‐head delta. Comparing them reveals a ~1500 m long region that receded 150 m to the east, which we interpret as the primary delta landslide source. Multibeam imagery and high‐resolution seismic reflection data identify a ~400 m wide chute with hummocky deposits at its terminus, which may define the primary slide path. Using these elements we run hydrodynamic models of the landslide‐driven tsunamis that match observations of current direction, maximum inundation, and wave height at Valdez old town. We speculate that failure conditions at the delta front may have been influenced by manmade changes in drainage patterns as well as the fast retreat of Valdez and other glaciers during the past century.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013 ) in this encyclopedia.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Preface

No abstract available.

Earth, Planets and Space↗

USGS2014

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2014

Book review: Three great tsunamis: Lisbon (1755), Sumatra-Andaman (2004), and Japan (2011)

“Three Great Tsunamis: Lisbon (1755), Sumatra–Andaman (2004), and Japan (2011)” is published in Springer’s new series SpringerBriefs. According to Springer’s website, the SpringBriefs volumes are intended to provide “concise summaries of cutting-edge research and practical applications across a wide spectrum of fields”. Among the several categories considered for SpringerBriefs are in-depth case studies, for which this volume is most closely aligned. This 89-page volume comprises six chapters. Chapter 1 describes the fundamentals of tsunamis at a basic level, including a selective list of major historical tsunamis. Chapter 2 describes the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami, although no tectonic background is given for this event, as it is for the other two events considered in this volume. Included in this chapter, however, is a brief but fascinating account of how this earthquake affected scientific and philosophical thought during the Age of Enlightenment. The authors’ description of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami in Chapter 3 includes instrumental and post-tsunami measurements of the tsunami, ground shaking and subsidence, and other effects such as mud volcanoes. Primarily, tsunami observations are described for the 2011 Japan event, including a brief summary of the nuclear disaster in the Fukushima region. The fifth chapter is on tsunami warning systems, including new and emerging systems around the world in the twenty-first century. The final chapter provides perspectives on why these events were so destructive and how future hazards may be mitigated. Review info: Three Great Tsunamis: Lisbon (1755), Sumatra–Andaman (2004), and Japan (2011). By Harsh K. Gupta and Vineet K. Gahalaut, 2013. ISBN: 978-9400765757

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2014

Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2014

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found, suggesting a very low rate of hazard. However, the devastating 1929 Grand Banks tsunami along the Atlantic margin of Canada shows that these events continue to occur. Densely populated areas, extensive industrial and port facilities, and the presence of ten nuclear power plants along the coast, make this region highly vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis and therefore even low-probability events need to be evaluated. We can presently draw several tentative conclusions regarding tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Landslide tsunamis likely constitute the biggest tsunami hazard to the coast. Only a small number of landslides have so far been dated and they are generally older than 10,000 years. The geographical distribution of landslides along the margin is expected to be uneven and to depend on the distribution of seismic activity along the margin and on the geographical distribution of Pleistocene sediment. We do not see evidence that gas hydrate dissociation contributes to the generation of landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Analysis of landslide statistics along the fluvial and glacial portions of the margin indicate that most of the landslides are translational, were probably initiated by seismic acceleration, and failed as aggregate slope failures. How tsunamis are generated from aggregate landslides remains however, unclear. Estimates of the recurrence interval of earthquakes along the continental slope may provide maximum estimates for the recurrence interval of landslide along the margin. Tsunamis caused by atmospheric disturbances and by coastal earthquakes may be more frequent than those generated by landslides, but their amplitudes are probably smaller. Among the possible far-field earthquake sources, only earthquakes located within the Gulf of Cadiz or west of the Tore-Madeira Rise are likely to affect the U.S. coast. It is questionable whether earthquakes on the Puerto Rico Trench are capable of producing a large enough tsunami that will affect the U.S. Atlantic coast. More information is needed to evaluate the seismic potential of the northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. The hazard from a volcano flank collapse in the Canary Islands is likely smaller than originally stated, and there is not enough information to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of flank collapse from the Azores Islands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods to evaluate the tsunami hazard from the margin are available for application to the Atlantic margin, but their implementation requires more information than is currently available.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2014

Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards

The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Oceanography↗

USGS2013

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Geosphere↗

USGS2013

Mw 8.6 Sumatran earthquake of 11 April 2012: rare seaward expression of oblique subduction

The magnitude 8.6 and 8.2 earthquakes off northwestern Sumatra on 11 April 2012 generated small tsunami waves that were recorded by stations around the Indian Ocean. Combining differential travel-time modeling of tsunami waves with results from back projection of seismic data reveals a complex source with a significant trench-parallel component. The oblique plate convergence indicates that ~20-50 m of trench-parallel displacement could have accumulated since the last megathrust earthquake, only part of which has been taken up by the Great Sumatran fault. This suggests that the remaining trench-parallel motion was released during the magnitude 8.6 earthquake on 11 April 2012 within the subducting plate. The magnitude 8.6 earthquake is interpreted to be a result of oblique subduction as well as a reduction in normal stress due to the occurrence of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004.

Geology↗

USGS2013

The SAFRR tsunami scenario: Improving resilience for California

On March 11, 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and the resulting tsunami devastated Japan with a disaster of unfathomable proportions. Five thousand miles away, the waves from Tohoku caused $50 to 100 million in damages in California. Although this pales in comparison to the loss of lives and property in Japan, the U.S. Government must ask whether California, and the national economy, will someday face worse consequences from other distant-source tsunamis. Unfortunately, the answer is “yes.”

California↗

USGS2013

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

California↗

USGS2012

Seismic reflection/refraction mapping of faulting and regional dips in the eastern Alaska Range

We present the results of a Trans‐Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT) investigation of the upper 2–5 km of the eastern Alaska Range in the vicinity of the Denali fault based on seismic reflection/refraction data, laboratory measurements of rock velocities, and structural mapping. The Denali fault is a major dextral slip structure mappable for more than 2000 km separating the Wrangellia and adjacent terranes to the south from the Yukon‐Tanana and adjacent terranes to the north. Geologic mapping suggests over 400 km of dextral slip has occurred on the fault, yet within the upper 1.5 km of the crust along the TACT corridor, basement rocks juxtaposed along the Denali fault reveal no significant seismic velocity differences, although the fault zone itself is associated with a minor lowering of velocity. The lack of seismic velocity contrast adjacent to the fault is in agreement with laboratory measurements of elastic wave velocities of samples from terranes bordering the fault. Laboratory measurements of elastic wave velocities of the metasedimentary mica‐quartz schists comprising the Yukon‐Tanana basement are highly anisotropic because of preferred orientation of mica and predict significant variations in velocity accompanying variations in foliation dip. Although other interpretations are possible, the northward shallowing of foliation dip of basement rocks in the Yukon‐Tanana terrane combined with the strong anisotropy associated with these highly foliated rocks can explain an observed northward increase in seismic velocity within this terrane. Seismic reflections from basement rocks within the Yukon‐Tanana terrane may originate from variations in anisotropy with depth and/or changes in composition reflecting different proportions of sandstone and shale in the protolith.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Application of continuum models to deformation of the Aleutian Island Arc

Continuum models were constructed to describe large‐scale deformation of the Aleutian Island Arc over the past 5 m.y. These models consider the island arc as a continuum in the horizontal plane with the velocity boundary condition at the Pacific edge stated as a fraction of Pacific plate convergence transferred to the arc. First, a simple model of uniformly distributed strain is formulated to illustrate the mechanics of continuous deformation. Lineaments along the arc massif rotated about a vertical axis are matched by small‐element rotation calculated from the model. However, this model does not predict across‐arc variations in deformation and produces an unrealistic amount of crustal thickening after 5 m.y. A physically more meaningful model of deformation is the thin viscous sheet model based on averages of stress and rheology throughout the lithosphere. The amount of motion transferred from the Pacific plate to the arc is constrained by the rotated lineaments, while the effective stress‐strain exponent ( n ) and the ability the lithosphere has to sustain crustal thickness contrasts (the Argand number) are independent variables. Primarily, bathymetry, earthquake focal mechanisms, and styles of faulting are used to evaluate the models. The preferred model is one where the amount of motion transferred from the Pacific plate is greater in an arc‐parallel direction than in an arc‐normal direction, producing stresses consistent with strike‐slip faulting at the far western end of the arc and tensional stresses consistent with transverse normal faulting elsewhere in the arc massif. This model agrees with observations of slip vectors by Ekström and Engdahl (1989), who conclude that a portion of the arc‐parallel component of relative plate motion is taken up in the overriding plate. This model implies that compressive stress transferred to the arc is small in comparison to along‐arc shear stress and that stresses conducive to strikeslip faulting are prevalent throughout the arc.

Alaska↗