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Emily S. Almberg

Publications and source records attributed to Emily S. Almberg.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Applying the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework to wildlife health management

Wildlife diseases can have substantial impacts on wildlife populations as well as on human and domestic animal health and well-being. Although many agencies and stakeholders share a goal of supporting wildlife health, reducing wildlife disease burden is complicated by a scarcity of effective interventions for wildlife, competition for funds, and conflicting priorities. As a result, agencies are unlikely to avoid the impacts of wildlife diseases in all contexts and need to evaluate where resisting disease is most feasible and beneficial. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework is a tool that assists natural resource managers in exploring and communicating about management interventions, including in situations where resisting ecological changes may not be possible. In the present article, we discuss how the RAD framework could be adapted to wildlife disease contexts to address several outstanding challenges in wildlife health management.

BioScience↗
USGS2024

Joint spatial modeling bridges the gap between disparate disease surveillance and population monitoring efforts informing conservation of at-risk bat species

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is a wildlife disease that has decimated hibernating bats since its introduction in North America in 2006. As the disease spreads westward, assessing the potentially differential impact of the disease on western bat species is an urgent conservation need. The statistical challenge is that the disease surveillance and species response monitoring data are not co-located, available at different spatial resolutions, non-Gaussian, and subject to observation error requiring a novel extension to spatially misaligned regression models for analysis. Previous work motivated by epidemiology applications has proposed two-step approaches that overcome the spatial misalignment while intentionally preventing the human health outcome from informing estimation of exposure. In our application, the impacted animals contribute to spreading the fungus that causes WNS, motivating development of a joint framework that exploits the known biological relationship. We introduce a Bayesian, joint spatial modeling framework that provides inferences about the impact of WNS on measures of relative bat activity and accounts for the uncertainty in estimation of WNS presence at non-surveyed locations. Our simulations demonstrate that the joint model produced more precise estimates of disease occurrence and unbiased estimates of the association between disease presence and the count response relative to competing two-step approaches. Our statistical framework provides a solution that leverages disparate monitoring activities and informs species conservation across large landscapes. Stan code and documentation are provided to facilitate access and adaptation for other wildlife disease applications.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗
USGS2022

Disease outbreaks select for mate choice and coat color in wolves

We know much about pathogen evolution and the emergence of new disease strains, but less about host resistance and how it is signaled to other individuals and subsequently maintained. The cline in frequency of black-coated wolves ( Canis lupus ) across North America is hypothesized to result from a relationship with canine distemper virus (CDV) outbreaks. We tested this hypothesis using cross-sectional data from wolf populations across North America that vary in the prevalence of CDV and the allele that makes coats black, longitudinal data from Yellowstone National Park, and modeling. We found that the frequency of CDV outbreaks generates fluctuating selection that results in heterozygote advantage that in turn affects the frequency of the black allele, optimal mating behavior, and black wolf cline across the continent.

Science↗
USGS2019

Modeling elk‐to‐livestock transmission risk to predict hotspots of brucellosis spillover

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human‐wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the presence of brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) in free‐ranging elk ( Cervus canadensis ) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. We identified how spillover risk changes through space and time by developing resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence daily during the transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and transmission timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated our predictions of transmission risk with spatiotemporal data on areas of potential livestock use to estimate the daily risk to livestock. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission risk occurred on areas where livestock may be present (i.e., private property or grazing allotments). Of the transmission risk that occurred in livestock areas, 98% of it was on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Disease prevalence, transmission timing, host abundance, and host distribution were all important factors in determining the potential for spillover risk. Our fine‐resolution (250‐m spatial, 1‐day temporal), large‐scale (17,732 km 2 ) predictions of potential elk‐to‐livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk.

Montana↗
USGS2018

Estimating distemper virus dynamics among wolves and grizzly bears using serology and Bayesian state‐space models

Many parasites infect multiple hosts, but estimating the transmission across host species remains a key challenge in disease ecology. We investigated the within and across host species dynamics of canine distemper virus (CDV) in grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We hypothesized that grizzly bears may be more likely to be exposed to CDV during outbreaks in the wolf population because grizzly bears often displace wolves while scavenging carcasses. We used serological data collected from 1984 to 2014 in conjunction with Bayesian state‐space models to infer the temporal dynamics of CDV. These models accounted for the unknown timing of pathogen exposure, and we assessed how different testing thresholds and the potential for testing errors affected our conclusions. We identified three main CDV outbreaks (1999, 2005, and 2008) in wolves, which were more obvious when we used higher diagnostic thresholds to qualify as seropositive. There was some evidence for increased exposure rates in grizzly bears in 2005, but the magnitude of the wolf effect on bear exposures was poorly estimated and depended upon our prior distributions. Grizzly bears were exposed to CDV prior to wolf reintroduction and during time periods outside of known wolf outbreaks, thus wolves are only one of several potential routes for grizzly bear exposures. Our modeling approach accounts for several of the shortcomings of serological data and is applicable to many wildlife disease systems, but is most informative when testing intervals are short. CDV circulates in a wide range of carnivore species, but it remains unclear whether the disease persists locally within the GYE carnivore community or is periodically reintroduced from distant regions with larger host populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

International meeting on sarcoptic mange in wildlife, June 2018, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA

Sarcoptic mange is a globally distributed disease caused by the burrowing mite Sarcoptes scabiei , which also causes scabies in humans. A wide and increasing number of wild mammal species are reported to be susceptible to mange; however, the impacts of the disease in wildlife populations, mechanisms involved in its eco-epidemiological dynamics, and risks to public and ecosystem health are still unclear. Major gaps exist concerning S. scabiei host specificity and the mechanisms involved in the different presentations of the disease, which change between individuals and species. Immunological responses to the mite may have a relevant role explaining these different susceptibilities, as these affect the clinical signs, and consequently, the severity of the disease. Recently, some studies have suggested sarcoptic mange as an emerging threat for wildlife, based on several outbreaks with increased severity, geographical expansions, and novel wild hosts affected. Disease ecology experts convened for the “International Meeting on Sarcoptic Mange in Wildlife” on 4–5 June 2018, hosted by the Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, USA. The meeting had a structure of (i) pre-workshop review; (ii) presentation and discussions; and (iii) identification of priority research questions to understand sarcoptic mange in wildlife. The workgroup concluded that research priorities should be on determining the variation in modes of transmission for S. scabiei in wildlife, factors associated with the variation of disease severity among species, and long-terms effects of the mange in wildlife populations. In this note we summarize the main discussions and research gaps identified by the experts.

Parasites & Vectors↗
USGS2018

Estimating the risk of elk-to-livestock brucellosis transmission in Montana

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human-wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In Montana, the presence of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. To help mitigate potential conflict, we identified how spillover risk changes through space and time using a combination of elk population, disease, and movement data. We developed resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence on a daily basis during the 15 February-30 June transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and abortion timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated these predictions with spatiotemporal data on livestock distribution to estimate the daily risk of livestock encountering brucellosis-induced elk abortions. We estimated that a minimum of ~17,500 adult female elk lived within our study area, which resulted in a conservative estimate of ~525 brucellosis-induced abortions each year. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission events occurred on livestock properties and 98% of those properties were private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Our fine-resolution (250-m spatial, 1-day temporal), large-scale (17,732 km2) predictions of potential elk-to-livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Pneumonia in bighorn sheep: Risk and resilience

Infectious disease was an important driver of historic declines and extirpations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in North America and continues to impede population restoration and management. Domestic sheep have long been linked to pneumonia outbreaks in bighorn sheep and this association has now been confirmed in 13 captive commingling experiments. However, ecological and etiological complexities still hinder our understanding and control of the disease. We provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about the biology and management of respiratory disease in bighorn sheep and propose strategies for moving forward. Epizootic pneumonia in bighorn sheep is polymicrobial. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, a bacterium host-specific to Caprinae and commonly carried by healthy domestic sheep and goats appears to be a necessary primary agent. All-age epizootics following introduction of M. ovipneumoniae along with other pathogens into bighorn sheep populations are usually severe (median mortality 47%) but fatality rates vary widely, from 15 – 100%. Disease severity may be influenced by the strain of M. ovipneumoniae, by secondary bacterial and viral pathogens, and by factors affecting transmission and host immunity. Once introduced, M. ovipneumoniae can persist in bighorn sheep populations for decades. Carrier dams transmit the pathogen to their susceptible lambs, triggering fatal pneumonia outbreaks in nursery groups, which limits recruitment and slows or prevents population recovery. The result is that demographic costs of pathogen persistence often outweigh the impacts of the initial invasion and die-off. There is currently no effective vaccine or antibiotic for domestic or wild sheep and to date, no management actions have been successful in reducing morbidity, mortality, or disease spread once pathogen invasion has occurred. Molecular-based strain typing suggests that spillover of M. ovipneumoniae into bighorn sheep populations from domestic small ruminants is ongoing, and that consequences of pathogen invasion are amplified by movements of infected bighorn sheep. Therefore, current disease management strategies focus on reducing risk of spillover from reservoir populations of domestic small ruminants and on limiting transmission among bighorn sheep. A broad array of approaches has been tried and more are needed to prevent pathogen introduction, induce disease fadeout in persistently infected populations, and promote population resilience across the diverse landscapes bighorn sheep inhabit. A comprehensive examination of disease dynamics across populations could help elucidate how disease fades out naturally and if population resilience can be increased in the face of infection. Cross-jurisdictional adaptive management experiments and transdisciplinary collaboration, including partnerships with members of the domestic sheep and goat community, are needed to facilitate innovation and speed progress towards sustainable solutions for managing pneumonia to protect and restore bighorn sheep populations.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washingto↗
USGS2016

Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography

Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange ( Sarcoptes scabiei ) in wolves ( Canis lupus ) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2 to 12 MJ per night (1240 to 2850 kcal, or a 65% to 78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8 and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

Montana↗
USGS2016

Infectious diseases of wolves in Yellowstone

The summer of 2005 began with such promise for wolves in Yellowstone. The population had been at an all-time high the last few years, and the wolves appeared to be in good condition. Several packs had been particularly busy during the breeding season, and early summer pup counts suggested another healthy crop of new wolves rising through the ranks.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

Social living mitigates the costs of a chronic illness in a cooperative carnivore

Infection risk is assumed to increase with social group size, and thus be a cost of group living. We assess infection risk and costs with respect to group size using data from an epidemic of sarcoptic mange ( Sarcoptes scabiei ) among grey wolves ( Canis lupus ). We demonstrate that group size does not predict infection risk and that individual costs of infection, in terms of reduced survival, can be entirely offset by having sufficient numbers of pack-mates. Infected individuals experience increased mortality hazards with increasing proportions of infected pack-mates, but healthy individuals remain unaffected. The social support of group hunting and territory defence are two possible mechanisms mediating infection costs. This is likely a common phenomenon among other social species and chronic infections, but difficult to detect in systems where infection status cannot be measured continuously over time.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2012

Parasite invasion following host reintroduction: a case of Yellowstone’s wolves

Wildlife reintroductions select or treat individuals for good health with the expectation that these individuals will fare better than infected animals. However, these individuals, new to their environment, may also be particularly susceptible to circulating infections and this may result in high morbidity and mortality, potentially jeopardizing the goals of recovery. Here, using the reintroduction of the grey wolf (Canis lupus) into Yellowstone National Park as a case study, we address the question of how parasites invade a reintroduced population and consider the impact of these invasions on population performance. We find that several viral parasites rapidly invaded the population inside the park, likely via spillover from resident canid species, and we contrast these with the slower invasion of sarcoptic mange, caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei. The spatio-temporal patterns of mange invasion were largely consistent with patterns of host connectivity and density, and we demonstrate that the area of highest resource quality, supporting the greatest density of wolves, is also the region that appears most susceptible to repeated disease invasion and parasite-induced declines. The success of wolf reintroduction appears not to have been jeopardized by infectious disease, but now shows signs of regulation or limitation modulated by parasites.

Wyoming↗
USGS2012

Use of real-time PCR to detect canine parvovirus in feces of free-ranging wolves

Using real-time PCR, we tested 15 wolf ( Canis lupus ) feces from the Superior National Forest (SNF), Minnesota, USA, and 191 from Yellowstone National Park (YNP), USA, collected during summer and 13 during winter for canine parvovirus (CPV)-2 DNA. We also tested 20 dog feces for CPV-2 DNA. The PCR assay was 100% sensitive and specific with a minimum detection threshold of 10 4 50% tissue culture infective dose. Virus was detected in two winter specimens but none of the summer specimens. We suggest applying the technique more broadly especially with winter feces.

Minnesota, Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

Colorado, Wisconsin, Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Infectious diseases in Yellowstone’s canid community

Each summer Yellowstone Wolf Project staff visit den sites to monitor the success of wolf reproduction and pup rearing behavior. For the purposes of wolf monitoring, Yellowstone National Park (YNP) is divided into two study areas, the northern range and the interior, each distinguished by their ecological and physiographical differences. The 1,000 square kilometer northern range, characterized by lower elevations (1,500–2,200 m), serves as prime winter habitat for ungulates and supports a higher density of wolves than the interior (20–99 wolves/1,000 km 2 versus 2–11 wolves/1,000 km 2 ). The interior of the park encompasses 7,991 square kilometers, is higher in elevation, receives higher annual snowfall, and generally supports lower densities of wolves and ungulates. During the Yellowstone Wolf Project’s 2005 observations on the northern range, researchers noticed that some wolf pups were disappearing and those that remained were unusually listless. The Slough Creek pups, at first numbering 18, dwindled to three survivors. Similar findings were mirrored at other den sites across the northern range. When annual den surveys were conducted in late July, all that remained were scattered piles of bones and fur. Coyotes suffered similar setbacks in 2005, with many of the survivors exhibiting neurological shakes and tremors. The park’s canids had been affected by something, but what? Prompted by what seemed to be a disease outbreak, the Yellowstone Wolf Project, the Yellowstone Ecological Research Center (YERC), and the University of Minnesota decided to take several collaborative approaches toward improving our understanding of the presence and role of infectious disease in Yellowstone’s canid community. Several serological studies have been conducted in the past among the park’s coyotes (Gese et al. 1997) and cougars (Biek 2006), providing a helpful foundation on which to build and compare. A serological survey was conducted, using serum samples collected during routine wolf and coyote captures over a period of 18 years (Almberg et al. 2009). Simulation models were used to explore the dynamics of canine distemper virus (Almberg et al. 2010)—one of the more prominent pathogens in terms of its effects on its hosts—and several long-term pathogen surveillance projects were initiated which are intended to someday provide a foundation for more advanced genetic-based analyses of pathogen dynamics. Since these initial efforts, the group has also expanded the research to include a study of sarcoptic mange, which began affecting wolves and coyotes in YNP in 2006 and 2007.

Yellowstone National Park↗