Geology topics

David C. Heimann

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Heimann.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Flood-inundation maps of the Blue River and major tributaries in and near Kansas City, Missouri, 2023–25

Digital flood-inundation maps for 35.5 miles of the Blue River, in and near Kansas City, Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Kansas City. Maps were also developed for a combined 7.3 miles of Brush Creek (4.4 miles) and Indian Creek (2.9 miles), two primary tributaries to the Blue River in the study reach. The flood-inundation maps, available through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding, depth of water above first-floor elevations in selected buildings, water velocity, water-surface elevations, and time of travel corresponding to selected water levels or gage heights (hereafter referred to as “stages”) at nine reference USGS streamgages—five on the Blue River (USGS station numbers 06893590, 06893578, 06893500, 06893150, and 06893100), two on Brush Creek (USGS station numbers 06893562 and 06893557), one on Indian Creek (USGS station number 06893390), and one on the Missouri River (USGS station number 06893000). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from USGS Water Data for the Nation at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service National Water Prediction Service at http://water.noaa.gov/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at seven of these sites (USGS station numbers 06893000, 06893590, 06893578, 06893500, 06893150, 06893557, and 06893390). Flood profiles were computed for eight map reaches by means of two-dimensional hydraulic models. The models were calibrated using the USGS-developed stage–streamflow relations at each reference streamgage. Two map reaches on the lower Blue River also include the effects of backwater from the Missouri River on flood inundation extent and hydraulic characteristics. The hydraulic models were used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datums. The profile stages ranged from the National Weather Service “Action Stage” or near bankfull to a stage exceeding the highest recorded water level at each streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a nonvegetated vertical accuracy of a maximum 10-centimeter root-mean-square error) to delineate the area flooded at each water level and the associated hydraulic characteristics. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel, resource managers, and residents with information that could be critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Kansas, Missouri↗

USGS2025

Flood-Inundation Maps of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers including the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Southeast Missouri, 2023

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 131.8-mile reach of the Current River and a 44.6-mile reach of the Jacks Fork River, in southeast Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Ozark Foothills Regional Planning Commission and the South Central Ozark Council of Governments. The maps also encompass the 134 miles of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers within the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, which is the first national park area to protect a river system. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (hereafter referred to as “stages”) at eight reference USGS streamgages—five on the Current River (USGS station numbers 07064440, 07064533, 07066510, 07067000, and 07068000) and three on the Jacks Fork River (USGS station numbers 07065200, 07065495, and 07066000). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service National Water Prediction Service at http://water.noaa.gov/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at four of these sites (USGS station numbers 07067000, 07068000, 07065495, and 07066000). Flood profiles were computed for seven of the eight map reaches by means of two-dimensional hydraulic models and the remaining reach by a one-dimensional hydraulic model. The models were calibrated by using stage-streamflow relations or streamflow measurements at the USGS streamgages and from high-flow stage measurements from water-level loggers distributed throughout the reaches. The hydraulic models were used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datums. The profile stages ranged from the National Weather Service “action stage” or near bankfull, to a stage exceeding the highest recorded water level at each streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a nonvegetated vertical accuracy of a maximum 10-centimeter root mean square error) to delineate the area flooded at each water level and the associated water depths. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel, resource managers, and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2024

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of Silver Creek and selected tributaries associated with Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, 2022–24

A hydrologic model of the Silver Creek Basin in southwest Illinois, and a hydraulic model of a selected reach of Silver Creek and local tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, were developed to assess the effects of temporal land-use development in the Silver Creek Basin, the potential effects of projected changes based on future precipitation, and the effects of added detention storage in selected tributaries near Scott Air Force Base. The hydrologic model consists of a total of 52 scenarios—24 scenarios for an assessment of basin-wide changes in hydrology, and 28 scenarios for the hydraulic analysis of a focus area of Silver Creek and tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base. Scenarios were run for precipitation events of 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals (50-percent through 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability) and 24-hour durations. The effects of detention structures added to Silver Creek tributaries throughout Scott Air Force Base were greater on water-level profiles (about 1 to 3 feet) than the effects of projected (2050) changes in precipitation (about 1 foot or less) in these basins. The results indicated that despite the increases in water-surface elevations resulting from projected increases in precipitation, the detention structures could provide a net reduction in water-surface elevations in the flood-prone western tributaries on the base. The effects of detention structures and projected precipitation also were assessed using the mapped extent of inundation for the simulated probabilistic precipitation scenarios. As an example, limited inundation of a residential area along Ash Creek was evident in the 5-year recurrence interval event for the scenarios without detention storage, whereas the first indications of flooding in the residential area from the scenario with detention storage were in the 50-year recurrence interval event. Changes in hydrologic conditions followed a spatial pattern similar to that of the changes in land-cover development, with the greatest changes in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most pronounced in subbasins on and surrounding Scott Air Force Base. There was up to an estimated 54.6-percent increase in peak streamflows in subbasins on or near Scott Air Force Base from historical (1992) to current (2019) conditions, but changes in peak streamflows of as much as 144 percent are anticipated under the planned (to about 2050) land cover plus projected (2050) precipitation. The changes in the timing of peak streamflows were towards earlier peaks, with cumulative changes between historical and projected conditions approaching 0.75 hour (45 minutes) for a 2-year recurrence interval event. Results of the percentage change in cumulative event volume were similar to those of percentage change in peak streamflows in terms of magnitude of change and temporal and spatial distribution of changes. The greatest magnitude of percentage change in the assessed hydrologic properties was associated with the 2-year recurrence interval event, and the magnitude of the percentage change decreased with increasing probabilistic event recurrence interval. Subbasins with a substantial change in runoff yield between historical and current conditions were primarily in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most were within or adjacent to Scott Air Force Base. The magnitude of runoff yield changes increased with recurrence interval, and maximum changes were associated with subbasins on base and with the changes between the historical and current conditions.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Geomorphic change, hydrology, and hydraulics of Caulks Creek, Wildwood, Missouri

Caulks Creek is a small stream that flows through the city of Wildwood in western St. Louis County, Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wildwood, has documented historical and recent geomorphic change along Caulks Creek, simulated the hydrologic and hydraulic response of Caulks Creek to a variety of design storm scenarios, and simulated bank retreat resulting from fluvial erosion and mass failure processes. Six study reaches were selected for monitoring geomorphic change based on known locations of erosion issues documented by the city of Wildwood. Recent short-term rates and patterns of geomorphic change in the study reaches, with a focus on bank retreat, were determined from repeat terrestrial light detection and ranging surveys and field observations of the six study reaches. Historical aerial photographs of the study reaches were analyzed to determine long-term rates of bank retreat and channel widening. In general, rapid bank retreat and widening was observed at the outer banks of meander bends and where banks are unforested. Short-term bank retreat varied substantially within individual study reaches, across the study area, and during the study period from no change to as much as 16 feet of retreat between consecutive surveys (5 to 8 months). The field surveys and visual observations indicated that bank retreat occurs episodically owing to a combination of fluvial erosion and mass failure processes, as well as freezing and thawing cycles. Long-term rates of bank retreat ranged from 0.6 to 4.4 feet per year. Hydrologic and hydraulic models of Caulks Creek were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response and the spatial distribution of hydraulic drivers of erosion (velocity and shear stress) along Caulks Creek for design storm scenarios that represent current (as of this publication) and projected future climate. The projected climate conditions resulted in higher peak flows compared to current conditions, including 6 to 21 percent for the year 2050 and 10 to 42 percent for the year 2099 at the downstream end of the study area. Additionally, for a given design storm, projected climate change is predicted to result in faster flows with greater shear stress, as well as more within-stream variability in velocity and shear stress. Many factors affect the velocity and shear stress at a given location, but in general, somewhat fast velocities and high shear stresses tended to occur where the channel is relatively narrow and straight. The velocity and shear stress in the study reaches (known areas of widening and bank retreat) were not particularly high, at least in part owing to the relatively large widths and high sinuosity of the present-day channel in these reaches. The potential mitigating effect of adding runoff storage to the basin also was examined for a selection of design storm scenarios. Additional runoff storage was more effective at mitigating peak flows and total runoff volumes for higher-frequency, lower-intensity storms than for lower-frequency, higher-intensity storms. The additional storage also resulted in an overall reduction in velocity (by as much as 28 percent) and shear stress (by as much as 40 percent) in the study area. However, the effect of the additional storage on peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress decreased with distance downstream through the study area. For the simulated scenarios, added runoff storage was effective at mitigating the increases in peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress caused by projected climate change. Lastly, the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM) was used to predict bank erosion and potential bank failure surfaces at five locations along Caulks Creek for a selection of design storm scenarios. The lower-frequency, higher-magnitude design storms resulted in more bank retreat than the higher-frequency, lower-magnitude design storms, though the magnitude of the difference was site dependent. Although scenarios with additional storage were not directly simulated in BSTEM, it is likely that the additional storage would result in reduced bank retreat compared to the same design storm with existing storage, based on the hydraulic modeling results for scenarios with added runoff storage.

Missouri↗

USGS2024

Simulation of hydrodynamics and water temperature in a 21-mile reach of the upper Illinois River, Illinois, 2020–22

This report describes the development of a CE-QUAL-W2 river hydrodynamics and temperature model of a 21-mile reach of the Illinois River including a 3-mile reach of a major tributary, the Fox River. Model outputs consist of streamflow, water velocity, water-surface elevation, and water-temperature time series that can be used to simulate summer conditions in years with and without extensive development of harmful algal blooms (HABs). These analyses may provide a better understanding of some complex factors contributing to HAB development along the Illinois River. Such an understanding may provide more accurate HAB timing and location predictions and may help determine potential mitigating activities to prevent or limit the size and duration of HABs. Using the observed and simulated hydrodynamic conditions in the Illinois River study reach, it was possible to compare and contrast streamflow, velocity, and temperature conditions in years with varying HAB distributions. Occurrences of extensive HABs were documented in the study reach in June 2020 and June 2021, but only a small HAB restricted to the Marseilles Lock and Dam pool occurred in the summer of 2022. The objective then was to find similarities in site conditions between 2020 and 2021 that may contrast with the conditions in 2022. Among the 3 years included in the study, the variability in simulated water temperature exceeded variability in observed streamflow and simulated velocities. The longest period of water temperatures greater than 27 degrees Celsius (°C) in the selected locations in June of the three analysis years was in the second half of June 2022, yet no study-area wide HAB was documented in 2022. Simulations indicated that after warm water temperatures were established in the reach in June 2022, a cooling period broke up the warming period. This period of cooling was greater in magnitude and duration downstream from the location of a localized HAB perhaps limiting the spread of the bloom. Residence times differed substantially in segments representing different channel features; values ranged from 0.28 to 17.3 (days per 500 meters of channel) between the main stem and backwater areas, respectively. Variation in average June residence times was also greater among different channel features than among different years in the study period. The HABs in 2020 and 2021 at Starved Rock Dam were documented when water temperatures were about 26 °C. River backwater areas at some locations did attain these temperatures 2 to 3 days before the conditions in the main stem. Residence times in the backwater areas, however, generally exceeded 9 days, thus limiting the exchange of water carrying algal biomass into the main channel. Hydrodynamic model calibration involved adjusting model parameters until observed and simulated daily water-surface elevations, daily streamflows, discrete velocities, and channel areas were similar. Temperature calibration was done with near-surface continuous time-series data and discrete vertical profile temperatures. Observed and simulated water temperatures generally were within 1 °C at all monitoring locations.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in Missouri and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report characterizes changes in peak streamflow in Missouri and the relation of these changes to climatic variability, and provides a foundation for future studies that can address nonstationarity in peak-streamflow frequency analysis in Missouri. Records of annual peak and daily streamflow at streamgages and gridded monthly climatic data (observed and modeled) were examined across four trend periods (100 years, water years 1921–2020; 75 years, 1946–2020; 50 years, 1971–2020; and 30 years, 1991–2020) for trends, change points (abrupt changes in the streamflow time series), and other statistical properties indicative of changing conditions. Peak streamflow magnitudes generally exhibit upward trends across the State for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and only in southern Missouri for the 30-year trend period. The medians of the trend magnitudes (normalized by median peak streamflow) range from a 10-percent increase during the 30-year trend period to a 40-percent increase during the 100-year trend period. Changes in the 90-percent quantile of peak streamflow, which correspond to the 10-percent exceedance probability often used for the design of drainage structures, are not as substantial or widespread, showing consistent increases mainly in the southern part of the State in the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Streamgages with trends in peak streamflow often also have change points, or abrupt changes, in streamflow magnitude. Change points in peak streamflows generally follow that of the peak streamflow trends, with upward change points throughout most of the State at the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in southern Missouri at the 30-year trend period. Temporally, clusters upward of change points are observed in the 1970s through 1980s for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and around 2006 and 2007 for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. A peaks-over-threshold analysis, which evaluates changes in the frequency of peak streamflows over a certain threshold, indicates that high flows have increased in frequency at 50 to 64 percent of streamgages in the 100- and 75-year trend periods. Most streamgages in the 50- and 30-year trend periods exhibit no change. Although the frequency of high flows has increased at some streamgages and trend periods in Missouri, these increases are not as widespread as the increases in the magnitude of peak streamflow. Upward trends in observed temperature and observed annual precipitation dominate in all trend periods, with no downward trends in precipitation and only two somewhat likely downward trends in temperature for the 100-year trend period. Increases in annual precipitation mostly are limited to southern Missouri for the 30-year trend period. The proportion of precipitation falling as snow has largely decreased in the study basins across the State, which is expected in response to increasing temperature. Upward trends in modeled annual runoff, which in this study incorporates only the effects of climatic variation, are observed in the same geographic areas where there are increases in observed annual precipitation. When peak streamflow and climatic trends are considered together, widespread upward trends in peak streamflows for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and for the 30-year trend period mainly in southern Missouri (encompassing both trends and abrupt change) appear to be driven largely by increases in precipitation based on spatial patterns and statistical relations. The prevalence of nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Missouri has important implications for peak-flow frequency analysis. Winter and spring precipitation and the occurrence of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase across the State. If precipitation continues to increase as expected, peak-flow frequency estimates based on older records may no longer represent the hydrologic regime of today, and methods for nonstationary peak-flow frequency analysis may be needed.

Missouri↗

USGS2024

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

USGS2023

Hydrologic investigations of green infrastructure by the Central Midwest Water Science Center

The water management system within developed communities includes stormwater, wastewater, and drinking-water sources and sinks. Each water management system component provides critical services that support public health in these areas. Stormwater can be quite variable and difficult to manage in developed communities because the amount of stormwater that must be routed through a developed area depends on changing land cover and variable precipitation. In addition to flooding concerns, stormwater also is a major cause of water contamination in developed communities because it carries contaminants such as trash, bacteria, heavy metals, and sediments to local waterways. Historically, communities have managed stormwater with gray infrastructure such as street gutters, culverts, sewer systems, and tunnels. Although these structures efficiently capture and route stormwater to a local waterway or treatment plant, they do not filter any contaminants. Furthermore, many older communities have combined storm sewer and sanitary sewer systems. These combined systems result in an excessive amount of wastewater to be treated before being released into receiving water or the untreated waters are released directly to receiving waters during storms. Many communities are now incorporating green infrastructure stormwater mitigating solutions—pervious surfaces (allows water through), grassed swales, bioretention basins, and rain gardens—into their stormwater-management systems. Green infrastructure can absorb and filter stormwater where it falls by taking advantage of natural soil and plant storage and filtration capabilities. Thus, green infrastructure projects can potentially reduce the amount of stormwater and the concentration and transport of contaminants. Increasing green infrastructure in a developed community may reduce the requirements for new storm sewer infrastructure, improve the water quality of nearby waterways, and enhance aesthetics. The U.S. Geological Survey has partnered with several cooperators to quantify the effects of green infrastructure projects in several developed communities throughout the central Midwest. As part of these green infrastructure projects, the U.S. Geological Survey Central Midwest Water Science Center and cooperators installed, calibrated, and monitored equipment to measure hydrologic responses (including flooding and water movement) and selected water-quality constituents in developed communities.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Effects of climate change on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek basin, Wildwood, Missouri

The city of Wildwood, Missouri, has identified fluvial erosion along Caulks Creek as a management priority due to potential effects to infrastructure and property. The upper and middle reaches of Caulks Creek flow intermittently (only immediately after precipitation), whereas the lower reach flows perennially. This study examines the effects of climate change and added storage on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek Basin to design storms. The study uses hydrologic (Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System – HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System – HEC-RAS) models furnished by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). HEC-HMS simulations were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response to a suite of design storms under both normal and wet antecedent conditions and for both the existing storage structures and new storage in the basin. The suite of design storms included all combinations of the following: (a) storm durations: 6-hour and 24-hour, (b) annual exceedance probabilities: 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01, (c) climate conditions: current, 30-year, and 80-year predictions of future climate from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Data Processing Tool. Additionally, for a selection of scenarios, results from the HEC-HMS simulations were used as boundary conditions for two-dimensional (2D) HEC-RAS simulations aimed at understanding how the distribution of velocity, shear stress, and stream power throughout the stream may be affected by projected changes in climate.

Missouri↗

USGS2022

Precipitation-driven flood-inundation mapping of Muddy Creek at Harrisonville, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Harrisonville, Missouri, assessed flooding of Muddy Creek resulting from varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, antecedent runoff conditions, and channel modifications (cleaned culverts and added detention storage). The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps that included a 3.8-mile reach of Muddy Creek and tributaries within and adjacent to the city. Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the upper Muddy Creek study basin were used to assess streamflow magnitudes associated with simulated precipitation amounts and the resulting flood-inundation conditions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS; version 4.4.1) was used to simulate the amount of streamflow produced from a range of precipitation events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; version 5.0.7) was then used to route streamflows and map resulting areas of flood inundation. The hydrologic and hydraulic models were calibrated to the September 28, 2019; May 27, 2021; and June 25, 2021, runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 30-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability. Flood-inundation maps were produced for reference stages of 1.0 foot (ft), or near bankfull, to 4.0 ft, or a stage exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation, using the HEC–RAS model. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 0.5-ft increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding stage at the Muddy Creek reference location. Seven scenarios were developed with the HEC–HMS hydrologic model with resulting streamflows routed in a HEC–RAS hydraulic model, and these scenarios varied by antecedent runoff condition and potential channel modifications. The same precipitation scenarios were used in each of the seven antecedent runoff and channel conditions, and the simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding stage at the Muddy Creek reference location.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Historical hydrologic and geomorphic conditions on the Black River and selected tributaries, Arkansas and Missouri

The Black River flows through southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas to its confluence with the White River in Arkansas. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers operates Clearwater Dam on the Black River and a series of dams in the White River Basin primarily for flood control. In this study, the hydrology and geomorphology of the Black River are examined through an analysis of annual mean and peak discharges at streamgages, a specific stage analysis of stage and discharge at streamgages, and an examination of bathymetric data and aerial imagery. Five streamgages on the Black River were analyzed, in addition to four streamgages on Black River tributaries and one streamgage on the White River, located just downstream from the Black River confluence. The analyses indicated that regulation of discharges at the flood-control dams caused a decrease in the magnitude and variability of the peak discharges at several of the analyzed gages on the Black and White Rivers. Conversely, peak discharges on the Black River have been increasing since water year 2000, though this is not matched by an increase in peak discharges on the White River for the same time period. The specific stage analyses and the available morphologic data generally did not indicate pronounced changes in stage-discharge relations at streamgages on the Black River, with the exception of the gages nearest to Clearwater Dam.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2021

Precipitation-driven flood-inundation mapping of the Little Blue River at Grandview, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Grandview, Missouri, assessed flooding of the Little Blue River at Grandview resulting from varying precipitation magnitudes and durations and expected land-cover changes. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps that included a 3.5-mile reach of the Little Blue River and tributaries within and adjacent to the city. A hydrologic model of the upper Little Blue River Basin and a hydraulic model of a selected study reach of the Little Blue River and tributaries were constructed to assess streamflow magnitudes associated with simulated precipitation amounts and the resulting flood-inundation conditions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS; version 4.4.1) was used to simulate the amount of streamflow produced from a range of rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; version 5.0.7) was then used to construct a steady-state hydraulic model to map resulting areas of flood inundation. Both models were calibrated to the May 28, 2020, high-flow event that produced a peak streamflow approximating a 10-percent annual exceedance probability (10-year flood-frequency recurrence interval) at the Little Blue River at Grandview streamgage (USGS station 06893750). The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 1- to 8-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability. Flood-inundation maps were produced for USGS streamflow stages of 17.0 feet (ft), or near bankfull, to 23.0 ft, or a stage exceeding the 0.2-percent annual exceedance interval flood, using the HEC–RAS model. The consequence of each precipitation duration-frequency value was represented by a 1-ft increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding stage at the reference USGS streamgage. Four scenarios were developed with the HEC–HMS hydrologic model: (1) current (2016) land cover, normal antecedent soil-moisture conditions; (2) current land cover, wet antecedent soil-moisture conditions; (3) future land cover, normal antecedent soil-moisture conditions; and (4) future land cover, wet antecedent soil-moisture conditions. The future land-cover condition was estimated based on anticipated development in the basin. All precipitation scenarios were input into each of the four land-cover antecedent moisture conditions and then assigned to a resulting flood-inundation map based on the generated peak flow and corresponding stage at the reference streamgage.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Two-dimensional hydraulic analyses of Joachim Creek, De Soto, Missouri

A two-dimensional hydraulic model; water-surface profiles; and digital maps of water-surface elevation, velocities, and water depths were developed for a 6.7-mile reach of Joachim Creek within and near the city of De Soto, Missouri. Water-surface profiles were generated for the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval) flows. Digital maps of water-surface elevation, water depth, and velocity were generated for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. Water-surface elevations and inundation extents of generated profiles and maps were substantially lower than similar products produced for the 2019 flood-insurance study that included the study reach. The differences in water-surface elevations can be attributed to differences in input streamflows and hydraulic simulation techniques. The water-surface elevations generated for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows were used to assess the vulnerability and inundation depths of 231 selected structures within the city of De Soto. Results indicate that 157 to 177 of the 231 structures were affected at the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flow, depending on the adjacent grade elevation used for reference. Between 185 and 198 structures were affected at the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flow, depending on grade elevation. Inundation depths at the affected structures were 0.02 to 9.28 feet (ft), depending on the flow and adjacent grade reference. Flood elevations were computed for Joachim Creek using a two-dimensional, finite-volume numerical modeling application for river hydraulics. The hydraulic model was calibrated using high-water marks from the April 18, 2013, flood and the maximum measured streamflow at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage Joachim Creek at De Soto, Mo. (station 07019500), on September 8, 2018. The calibrated model was then used to compute the hydraulic conditions associated with the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. The simulated water-surface elevations and digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.60-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.97-ft horizontal resolution) were used to generate products including water-surface profiles and maps of inundated area, water depth, and velocities using model postprocessing software.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Flood-inundation maps for the Blue River near Red Bridge Road, Kansas City, Missouri, 2019

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.6-mile reach of the Blue River near Red Bridge Road in Kansas City, Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Kansas City, Missouri. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 06893195, Blue River at Red Bridge Road, Kansas City, Mo. Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the Johnson County, Kansas, StormWatch Automated Local Elevation in Real Time Flood Warning System at https://www.stormwatch.com . Flood profiles were computed for the Blue River reach by means of a one-dimensional model for simulating water-surface profiles with steady-state flow computations. The model was calibrated by using the current stage-streamflow relations at the upstream USGS streamgage 06893150, Blue River at Blue Ridge Boulevard Extension, Kansas City, Mo., and the downstream streamgage 06893500, Blue River at Kansas City, Mo. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 37 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 11 ft, or near bankfull, to 47 ft at the reference streamgage 06893195. The upper stage for the map library exceeds the stage corresponding to the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood) in the model reach. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model with a maximum 10-centimeter vertical root mean square error and 4.0-ft horizontal resolution to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with real-time internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will help guide emergency management personnel and residents in flood mitigation, preparedness and planning, flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and any postflood recovery efforts.

Kansas, Missouri↗

USGS2020

Flood-inundation maps for Dardenne Creek in St. Charles County, Missouri, 2019

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9.9-mile reach of Dardenne Creek, St. Charles County, Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, St. Charles County, and the Cities of O’Fallon and St. Peters, Mo. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgages 05514860 Dardenne Creek at Old Town St. Peters, Mo., and 05587450 Mississippi River at Grafton, Illinois. Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ ahps2/ hydrograph.php? wfo= lsx&gage= drcm7 and https://water.weather.gov/ ahps2/ hydrograph.php? wfo= lsx&gage= grfi2 , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at these sites (sites DRCM7 and GRFI2). Flood profiles were computed for the Dardenne Creek stream reach by means of a one-dimensional model for simulating water-surface profiles with steady-state flow computations. The model was calibrated by using the current stage-streamflow relation at the USGS streamgages 05514840 Dardenne Creek at O’Fallon, Mo., and 05514860 Dardenne Creek at Old Town St. Peters, Mo., and the documented high-water marks from the flood of December 2015. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 17 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 16 ft, or near bankfull, to 32 ft at the reference streamgage 05514860. Stages in the lower Dardenne Creek can be affected by backwater from the Mississippi River; therefore, several sets of water-surface profiles were developed representing the extent of varying levels of backwater as referenced to the USGS streamgage 05587450 on the Mississippi River at Grafton, Ill. The upper stage for each map library exceeds the stage corresponding to the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood) at the streamgage location. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.26-ft vertical accuracy and 0.71-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with real-time information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood mitigation, preparedness and planning, flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2019

Flood-inundation maps for Joachim Creek, De Soto, Missouri, 2018

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.7-mile reach of Joachim Creek, De Soto, Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of De Soto and Jefferson County, Missouri. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Joachim Creek at De Soto, Missouri (station number 07019500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the internet from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lsx&gage=desm7 , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (site DESM7). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach using a one-dimensional model for simulation of water-surface profiles with steady-state (gradually varied) or unsteady-state flow computation options. The model was calibrated by using the theoretical stage-discharge relation at the USGS streamgage Joachim Creek at De Soto, Missouri (station number 07019500), and documented high-water marks from the flood of April 18, 2013. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 10 water surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum. The profiles ranged from 8.0 ft, or near bankfull, to 17.0 ft, which exceeds the stage that corresponds to the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.60-ft vertical accuracy and 1.97-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures and for post-flood recovery efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2018

Hydrographic surveys of rivers and lakes using a multibeam echosounder mapping system

A multibeam echosounder is a type of sound navigation and ranging device that uses sound waves to “see” through even murky waters. Unlike a single beam echosounder (also known as a depth sounder or fathometer) that releases a single sound pulse in a single, narrow beam and “listens” for the return echo, a multibeam system emits a multidirectional radial beam to obtain information within a fan-shaped swath. The timing and direction of the returning sound waves provide detailed information on the depth of water and the shape of the river channel, lake bottom, or any underwater features of interest. This information has been used by the U.S. Geological Survey to efficiently generate high-resolution maps of river and lake bottoms.

Missouri↗

USGS2018

Flooding in the southern Midwestern United States, April–May 2017

Excessive rainfall resulted in flooding on numerous rivers throughout the southern Midwestern United States (southern Midwest) in late April and early May of 2017. The heaviest rainfall, between April 28 and 30, resulted in extensive flooding from eastern Oklahoma to southern Indiana including parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois. Peak-of-record streamflows were set at 21 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the southern Midwest during the resulting April–May 2017 flooding and each of the five States included in the study area had at least one streamgage with a peak of record during the flood. The annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates for the April–May 2017 peak streamflows indicate that peaks at 5 USGS streamgages had AEPs of 0.2 percent or less (500-year recurrence interval or greater), and peak streamflows at 15 USGS streamgages had AEPs in the range from greater than 0.2 to 1 percent (500- to 100-year recurrence intervals). Examination of the magnitude of the temporal changes in median annual peak streamflows indicated positive increases, in general, throughout the study area for each of the 1930–2017, 1956–2017, 1975–2017, and 1989–2017 analysis periods. The median increase in peak streamflows was greatest in 1975–2017 and 1989–2017 with maximum increases of 8 to 10 percent per year. No stations in the 1975–2017 or 1989–2017 analysis period had median negative changes in peak streamflows.

Open-File Report↗