Geology topics

Brendan A. Oates

Publications and source records attributed to Brendan A. Oates.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Examining dynamic occupancy of gray wolves in Idaho after a decade of managed harvest

Gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) were reintroduced to Idaho, USA, in 1995–1996. The removal of Endangered Species Act protections in 2011 transferred wolf management to the state where wolves were subsequently classified as a harvested (i.e., hunted, trapped) big game species. We implemented a camera-based survey across Idaho from 2016–2021 as part of a population monitoring program. We used the resulting camera images in multi-year, dynamic and single-season occupancy models to examine potential changes in the asymptotic proportion of area occupied by wolves and assess the effect of cumulative wolf harvest from 2016–2021 on occupancy in the last year of the study, 2021. We also wanted to understand how habitat, prey, humans, harvest, livestock, and prey-related wolf removals affected wolf occupancy through their effects on colonization and extinction of occupancy cells through time. Statewide wolf occupancy did not change appreciably over the course of our study, with the proportion of survey cells occupied at an estimated high of 0.44 ± 0.03 (SE) in 2018 and a low of 0.39 ± 0.03 in 2020. Wolf colonization (i.e., probability that a cell switched from unoccupied to occupied between years) was positively associated with forest cover, images of humans, and the percent of neighboring cells that were occupied. Cell extinction (i.e., probability of switching from occupied to unoccupied between years) was negatively associated with neighboring cell occupancy. There were non-linear relationships between wolf harvest, colonization, and extinction. The single-season occupancy model demonstrated a positive relationship between harvest and occupancy at low to moderate levels of harvest (10–30%), but there was also evidence that high levels of harvest (>30%) reduce occupancy. Our results indicate that although harvest might influence wolf occupancy at local scales, wolf occupancy remained relatively constant across the state and wolves remained well distributed across Idaho during the study.

Idaho↗

USGS2022

Extending body condition scoring beyond measurable rump fat to estimate full range of nutritional condition for moose

Moose ( Alces alces ) populations along the southern extent of their range are largely declining, and there is growing evidence that nutritional condition — which influences several vital rates – is a contributing factor. Moose body condition can presently be estimated only when there is measurable subcutaneous rump fat, which equates to animals with >6% ingesta-free body fat (IFBFat). There is need for a technique to allow body fat estimation of animals in poorer body condition (i.e., <6% body fat). We advance current methods for moose, following those used and validated with other ungulate species, by establishing a moose-specific body condition score (BCS) that can be used to estimate IFBFat in the lower range of condition. Our modified BCS was related strongly ( r 2 = 0.89) to IFBFat estimates based on measurable rump fat. By extending the predicted relationship to individuals without measurable fat, the BCS equated severe emaciation with 0.67% IFBFat, supporting the accuracy of the method. The lower end of nutritional condition is important for identifying relationships involving life-history characteristics because most state-dependent changes occur at lower levels of condition. Therefore, until the BCS can be validated with moose carcasses, we believe our method to estimate body fat across the full range of condition should yield better understanding of the drivers underlying declining moose populations.

Alces↗

USGS2021

Detecting resource limitation in a large herbivore population is enhanced with measures of nutritional condition

Resource limitation at the population level is a function of forage quality and its abundance relative to its per capita availability, which in turn, determines nutritional condition of individuals. Effects of resource limitation on population dynamics in ungulates often occur through predictable and sequential changes in vital rates, which can enable assessments of how resource limitation influences population growth. We tested theoretical predictions of bottom-up (i.e., resource limitation) forcing on moose ( Alces alces ) through the lens of vital rates by quantifying the relative influence of intrinsic measures of nutritional condition and extrinsic measures of remotely sensed environmental data on demographic rates. We measured rates of pregnancy, parturition, juvenile, and adult survival for 82 adult females in a population where predators largely were absent. Life stage simulation analyses (LSAs) indicated that interannual fluctuations in adult survival contributed to most of the variability in λ. We then extended the LSA to estimate vital rates as a function of bottom-up covariates to evaluate their influence on λ. We detected weak signatures of effects from environmental covariates that were remotely sensed and spatially explicit to each seasonal range. Instead, nutritional condition strongly influenced rates of pregnancy, parturition, and overwinter survival of adults, clearly implicating resource limitation on λ. Our findings depart from the classic life-history paradigm of population dynamics in ungulates in that adult survival was highly variable and generated most of the variability in population growth rates. At the surface, lack of variation explained by environmental covariates may suggest weak evidence of resource limitation in the population, when nutritional condition actually underpinned most demographics. We suggest that variability in vital rates and effects of resource limitation may depend on context more than previously appreciated, and density dependence can obfuscate the relationships between remotely sensed data and demographic rates.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Antipredator response diminishes during periods of resource deficit for a large herbivore

The starvation-predation hypothesis predicts that, during resource shortages, prey forego antipredator behavior and forage as much as possible to avoid starvation, even when risk of predation is high. We tested this hypothesis using GPS locations collected simultaneously from moose (Alces alces) and wolves (Canis lupus) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of North America. We assessed shifts in the speed, displacement, and habitat selection of moose 24 hours following encounter with wolves (0–1500 m distance). We examined whether the strength of antipredator behaviors would weaken as winter progressed and the nutritional condition of moose declined. Moose responded to wolf encounters by increasing their rate of movement in early winter, but only within 500 m distance. Importantly, these responses attenuated as winter progressed. Moose did not avoid their preferred foraging habitat (riparian areas) following encounters with wolves at any distance, and instead they more strongly selected riparian areas, especially in early winter. Our findings support theoretical predictions that resource deficits should dampen prey antipredator behavior, and suggest that nutritional condition of prey may buffer against run-away risk effects in food webs involving large mammalian predators and prey.

Wyoming↗