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Ashton F. Flinders

Publications and source records attributed to Ashton F. Flinders.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Small-volume tephra deposits of the May 1924 explosions from Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea volcano, and their origin

More than 50 explosive eruptions occurred from Halemaʻumaʻu at Kīlauea volcano over 17 days from May 11 to 27, 1924. Ballistics weighing as much as 14,000 kg were ejected and most landed within 2 km of the vent. Fine ash made up a major component of the tephra and was dispersed tens of kilometers downwind. Draining of the Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake occurred in late February 1924, with the crater floor eventually subsiding by a further ∼70 m (to ∼180 m below the crater rim) by the time the first explosions took place during the night of May 10–11. The largest explosions occurred on May 17–18 and smaller explosions continued until May 27, at which point Halemaʻumaʻu had more than doubled in width and depth. The explosions generated plumes reaching up to ∼10 km high with ballistics ejected up to 2 km from the crater. Almost 100 years later, we investigate and characterize the preserved tephra deposits within ∼3 km of the 1924 crater rim. Grain size and shape analyses were performed on 202 samples collected from 34 tephra profiles using dynamic image analysis, with a subset of layers from nine tephra profiles used for componentry (200 grains per layer in the 0.5–1 mm size fraction). Additionally, we characterize the average diameters (using the five largest clasts) at 216 locations and measure the average diameters of 2291 ballistics (largest per ∼100 m 2 area). Physical descriptions from fieldwork and grain size distributions were used to subdivide the tephra layers into five lithofacies: coarse homogeneous, fine homogenous, red ash, accretionary lapilli-bearing, and finely laminated. Grain size versus shape data show a range of values that demonstrate most grains are dense, smooth, and equant, in alignment with lithic clasts dominating the tephra componentry. The fine grained and accretionary lapilli-bearing nature of some of these lithofacies confirms that water influenced the style of the explosions. However, we also note juvenile clasts within many of the tephra layers, indicating that many of the layers were formed during phreatomagmatic explosions (sensu stricto), despite the eruptive mechanism being dominantly phreatic. Juvenile clasts are more abundant higher in the tephra profiles, suggesting that juvenile magma was more involved later in the explosive sequence. Thermal and hydrologic modeling indicate that groundwater inflow into a short-lived, small-diameter volcanic conduit (10-m to 120-m-diameter used for modeling) during the 78–85 days preceding the first explosion provides a physically plausible mechanism for this eruptive sequence.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Insights from more than a year of ongoing episodic lava fountaining at Kilauea

Episodic lava fountaining is rare globally, with only three occurrences from Kīlauea (Hawaii) since 1823. Beginning in December 2024, an eruption within the summit crater, Halemaʻumaʻu, has produced 52 fountaining episodes to date, each lasting typically for hours and separated by days to weeks. Although multiple mechanisms have been proposed, fundamental questions remain about how magma reservoir pressure, conduit permeability, and volatile exsolution control fountaining onset. We present a multi-parameter record of episodic fountaining at Kīlauea using modern geochemical, geophysical, and geologic monitoring. These observations revealed systematic correlations between fountaining and summit inflation, enabling unprecedented quantitative forecasts. This eruption will provide new constraints on the timing, evolution, and processes driving episodic fountaining globally, and highlights Kīlauea’s role as a natural laboratory for studying volcanic processes.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Sensitivity study for the continuous gravimetric network of the Kīlauea Volcano in Hawaii: First results

We present a sensitivity analysis for the continuous gravimetric monitoring network at Kīlauea volcano, Hawaiʻi, USA. Our methodology is an extension of the method proposed by Fernández et al. (1999) and enables the estimation of the intrusion radius-depth range where the effects (surface gravity changes in our case) would be clearly detected. The magmatic intrusion is considered as a spherical point source, and we use the elastic-gravitational deformation model proposed by Rundle (1982) and extended by Rundle and co-workers (Fernández and Rundle 1994a; 1994b; Fernández et al. 1997; 2006). Additionally, a correction for topographic effects is included. We obtain first results indicating that, in the case of Kīlauea, a network configuration using five gravimeters at radial distances between 0.5 and 3 km from the surface projection of the Halemaʻumaʻu source centre could be an effective strategy for volcano monitoring, facilitating the early detection of gravity effects produced by magmatic intrusions with a radius a, occurring at depths between 3 and 30 km.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States

Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Seismic techniques and suggested instrumentation to monitor volcanoes

Introduction Changes in the pressure or location of magma can stress or break surrounding rocks and trigger flow of nearby waters and gases, causing seismic signals, such as discrete earthquakes and tremor. These phenomena are types of seismic unrest that commonly precede eruption and can be used to forecast volcanic activity. Mass movements at the surface, including avalanches, debris flows, and lahars, may also generate seismic signals that are specifically addressed in chapter H , this volume (Thelen and others, 2024). Our focus in this chapter is to determine the levels of instrumentation recommended to produce high-quality, well-constrained seismic observations important for early warning of impending eruptions, detecting changes in ongoing eruptions, and characterizing other hazardous volcanic events. There are emerging techniques and new types of instrumentation, such as distributed acoustic sensing or rotational seismometers, that we do not consider here. These types of instrumentation show promise for monitoring but still require maturation before being considered more generally in volcano monitoring. Most of the capabilities mentioned below are universal for all types of volcanic systems, although some are best applied to stratovolcanoes with an apical single vent. In some settings, such as calderas or shield volcanoes, we must broaden coverage to include multiple possible storage regions or vent locations. As an example, Thelen (2014) discretized the long rift zones of shield volcanoes in Hawaiʻi as a set of evenly spaced “vents.” In this construct, each vent comes with recommendations, and several thousand network configurations were simulated to assess the effect on network quality levels and to determine the most efficient network design. The same process could be applied in a caldera setting or a volcanic field, where an evenly spaced grid of potential vents is considered. Localized recommendations for each unique system are beyond the scope of this report and left up to local experts to assess based on the conditions, restrictions, and requirements of each volcano.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Ground deformation and gravity for volcano monitoring

Introduction When magma accumulates or migrates, it can cause pressurization and related ground deformation. Characterization of surface deformation provides important constraints on the potential for future volcanic activity, especially in combination with seismic activity, gas emissions, and other indicators. A wide variety of techniques and instrument types have been applied to the study of ground deformation at volcanoes (sidebar, p. 2; Dzurisin, 2000, 2003, 2007). Geodetic instruments include continuously recording Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS; of which the United States’ Global Positioning System is one example) stations (fig. D1), borehole tiltmeters, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements (from satellites, occupied and unoccupied aircraft systems, and ground-based sensors). Additional geodetic measurements like continuous- and survey-mode gravity (fig. D2) can contribute substantially to interpreting these data. Borehole strainmeters (see chapter K , this volume, by Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024) also have outstanding utility for monitoring deformation, although because of cost and permitting challenges, we do not include them as part of standard volcano monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. Still other techniques like light detection and ranging (lidar), structure from motion, and optical satellite data can be used to derive gross topographic changes, which can be used to map volcanic deposits, infer eruption rates, and gain insights into the source processes associated with eruptive activity (see chapter G , this volume, on tracking surface changes caused by volcanic activity; Orr and others, 2024). Experience has shown that no single geodetic monitoring technique is adequate to detect and track the entire range of ground-motion patterns that occur at volcanoes, primarily because of the temporal and spatial diversity of volcano deformation (fig. D3). Similarly, the magnitude of surface deformation varies widely. Geodetic monitoring strategies should therefore include multiple techniques and instrument types to cover a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In identifying recommendations for geodetic instrumentation for volcano monitoring networks, we attempted to maximize the diversity of instrument types to measure the full range of deformation signals and minimize their expense and number; thus, we do not include several well-known deformation-monitoring techniques in our recommendations. Extensometers, for example, measure strains over distances of a few meters and have an excellent record of success in detecting changes in preeruptive localized ground motion across existing cracks, including at Mount St. Helens, Washington (Iwatsubo and others, 1992), and Piton de la Fournaise, Réunion Island (Peltier and others, 2006). Despite being relatively inexpensive, extensometers are best used primarily when localized ground displacements (for example, ground cracks) need to be tracked, and are not necessary at all volcanoes. In considering volcano deformation monitoring strategies, two complicating factors are deserving of special attention. First, not all deformation is driven by subsurface magmatic activity—for example, at many large stratovolcanoes (for example, Mount Rainier), flank collapses and landslides are significant geologic hazards (Reid and others, 2001) that may occur even in the absence of magmatic activity. Monitoring the stability of volcanoes is thus another critical application of geodetic monitoring networks to inform hazard assessment. One of the most famous examples of edifice instability is the large flank collapse that initiated the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens. Deformation monitoring had detected a bulge on the north flank of the mountain in April 1980 that was expanding by several meters per day (Lipman and others, 1981). Given that flank collapses can happen at any time during a period of volcanic unrest (or even outside a period of unrest), the capability to assess edifice stability is critical. Second, although volcanoes are commonly treated as idealized structures that erupt from single points, like centralvent stratovolcanoes, many are characterized by long rift zones from which eruptions may originate, and distributed volcanic fields are characterized by broadly spaced vents. For example, linear dikes are common at Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, and between Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake in California. At Kīlauea, one of these linear dikes emerged more than 40 kilometers (km) away from the summit of the volcano during the lower East Rift Zone eruption in 2018. Other volcanic fields, like Lassen volcanic center, California, or the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona, have many small vents spread over a wide area. Although the instrumentation guidelines presented in this chapter remain phrased for central-vent volcanoes, they should be modified as needed in the context of the eruptive characteristics of each individual volcanic system. Spatial analysis of geodetic network coverage could help to ensure adequate instrumentation in areas where volcanism can occur over a broad area as opposed to a central vent. As an example, consider the adjacent volcanoes Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake. If station locations are chosen based only on the distance from the centers of the volcanoes, then any geodetic anomalies between the two volcanoes—an area of potential volcanism as indicated by the presence of volcanic features—may remain undetected by ground-based instrumentation. The spatial analysis is accomplished via a grid of pressure point sources (Mogi, 1958) evenly distributed across the map area, at a depth of 5 km in this example (fig. D4). Each source is inflated until predicted deformations exceed the GNSS white noise uncertainty estimates at one site (Langbein, 2017; Murray and Svarc, 2017). This volume of detectable magma provides a measure of the quality of the coverage (fig. D4). The results indicate that, as of 2022, there is a large area between Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcano with existing mapped dikes in which a substantial amount of magma could intrude without being detected geodetically. Applying this style of analysis to individual volcanic systems can provide a guide for designing network geometry given the expected locations of future eruptions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Special topic—Rapid-response instrumentation

Introduction Based on the reports of Ewert and others (2005, 2018) and Moran and others (2008), most U.S. volcanoes are currently under-monitored and are likely to remain so until the goals of the National Volcano Early Warning System are fulfilled. In addition, volcanoes determined to have low to moderate threat levels (Ewert and others 2005, 2018) could awaken suddenly and, as a result, may need to have instrumentation installed rapidly. For these reasons, equipment caches would ideally be readily available for rapid response in the event of unrest at under-monitored volcanoes or during a volcanic crisis. Given that volcanoes in Alaska and Hawai‘i are frequently active, it is likely that several U.S. volcanoes could experience unrest simultaneously, as happened in 2018, 2019, and 2020, when unrest or eruptions occurred at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska; Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i; Mount Cleveland, Alaska; Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska; Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska; Mount Veniaminof, Alaska, as well as the most destructive documented eruption of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i. Therefore, we recommend that sufficient numbers of seismometers, infrasound sensors, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, remote cameras, gas-monitoring instruments, and airborne and ground-based remote-sensing systems be made available and placed in a state of readiness at each observatory with the capability of bringing a level-2 monitoring network to near level-4 readiness. These rapid-response caches would ideally include sufficient equipment to provide real-time data telemetry, including satellite telemetry, where available, applicable, and appropriate. Rapid-response caches would be maintained in a state of readiness so that instruments can be deployed within several hours to days. Although the primary focus of the caches would be to enable rapid increases to a volcano observatory’s real-time monitoring capabilities, not all scenarios of volcanic unrest are conducive to rapid deployment of real-time data telemetry. Non-telemetered, campaign instruments, particularly seismometers and GNSS stations, can also be deployed to aid in detection of early signs of volcanic unrest given the data can be recovered in a timely fashion. Given the geographic separation of the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Science Center’s (VSC) four volcano observatory offices, the logistical difficulties in shipping equipment rapidly between them in response to unrest, the possible scenario that a volcano could reawaken with just hours or days of precursory unrest, and the difference in operating environments (for example, tropical Hawai‘i compared to subarctic Alaska), we recommend three rapid-response instrument caches—for Hawai‘i, Alaska, and the lower 48 States. For the lower 48 States, a single cache shared among the Cascades Volcano Observatory, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, and the California Volcano Observatory could be warehoused in California or Washington. Although these rapid-response caches would be located at one of the observatories, they would ideally be owned and maintained by VSC, and together form a flexible VSC-wide instrument pool. To maintain continuity of monitoring capabilities, this rapid-response cache could also serve to replace instruments destroyed during an on-going eruption. However, to retain eruption-response readiness, we recommend instruments in the rapid-response cache not be permanently reallocated to an observatory’s monitoring network unless they are replaced.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Density structure of Kilauea volcano: Implications for magma storage and transport

A Bayesian linear regression to determine the bias in the Nafe–Drake relationship between compressional velocity and density provides an improved model for the density structure of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaiʻi. In previous work, we combined the results of seismic tomography with the Nafe–Drake relationship between compressional velocity and density to explain the large values of gravity disturbances overlying the summits and rift zones of the island's volcanoes. These results were used to determine mechanisms for gravitational instability of the island flanks. Here, we use laboratory measurements of the relationship of velocity and density for a wide range of Hawaiʻi island rocks as a prior in a Bayesian regression, with seismic tomography, to refine the 3-D density structure for Kīlauea volcano. This refined structure shows dense bodies (3220 kg m −3 ) between 5 and 8 km below sea level that underly regions of magma storage, found from geodetic and geophysical studies, beneath the summit and East Rift Zone of Kīlauea volcano. Above these bodies, density isosurfaces surround and cradle sources of pressure change determined from geodetic models, both at the summit and along the East Rift Zone. Continued subsidence of the summit following the 2018 eruption is aligned with a bowl-shaped density structure, formed primarily by density isosurfaces between 2800 and 2900 kg m −3 at 4–6 km depth. These surfaces underly the ∼3 km depth at which dyke injection initiates, are largely aseismic, and from their density values are inferred to contain high concentrations of olivine. Taken together, these density structures are consistent with an olivine-rich mush with variable porosity that increases in density with depth and provides a mechanism to form olivine cumulates both at the summit and along the rift zones. This structural framework for Kīlauea volcano is consistent with melt and mush transport occurring over a large range of depths to accommodate the growth and spreading of the volcano.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Island of Hawaiʻi eruptions 2018–present: Profound landscape and human impacts

This three-day field trip examines deposits and landscape evolution associated with recent eruptions of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, USA, beginning with the lower East Rift Zone eruption and associated partial caldera collapse during the summer of 2018. As of this writing, there have been five eruptions within Kīlauea’s summit caldera, one eruption in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea, and several intrusions into the south caldera and Southwest Rift Zone since 2018. For the first time since 1984, Mauna Loa erupted in 2022, with lava flows in the caldera and along the Northeast Rift Zone. Recent eruptions contrast significantly with the preceding period, characterized by Kīlauea’s long-lived East Rift Zone eruption at Pu‘u‘ō‘ō from 1983 to 2018 and sustained lava lake activity at the summit from 2008 to 2018.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

gTOOLS, an open-source MATLAB program for processing high precision, relative gravity data for time-lapse gravity monitoring

gTOOLS is an open-source software for the processing of relative gravity data. gTOOLS is available in MATLAB and as a compiled executable to be run under the free MATLAB Runtime Compiler. The software has been designed for time-lapse (temporal) gravity monitoring. Although programmed to read the Scintrex CG-5 and CG-6 gravimeters output data files, it can be easily modified to read data files from other gravimeters. The software binds together single-task processing modules within a very simple user interface that is based on one text file. Gravity processing involves three modules: (a) gravimeter calibration; (b) automatic processing of gravity data to find adjusted gravity differences; and (c) post processing of results. Each module is optional and runs independently from the others. Data processing includes (a) averaging out the measurements noise, and correction for solid Earth tides, and ocean loading, and residual instrumental drift, and (b) calculate the residual instrumental drift and gravity differences between the base station and monitoring sites, and their uncertainties, by a weighted least square analysis of the gravity data. The software allows the automatic processing of a gravity campaign spanning multiple days in a single run. The software is tested on gravity data from 2015 eruption at Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS2021

Density structure of the island of Hawai’i and the implications for gravity-driven motion of the south flank of Kilauea volcano

The discovery that large landslides dissected the Hawaiian islands, scattering debris over thousands of square kilometers of seafloor, changed our ideas of island growth and evolution. The evidence is consistent with catastrophic flank collapse during volcano growth, and draws our focus to the currently active island of Hawai’i, the volcanoes Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, and particularly to the actively-mobile south flank of Kīlauea volcano. Both the weight distribution and pressure within an extensive magma system are perceived to affect stability, but the role of gravitational body forces and island density distribution has not been quantitatively assessed. We use seismic velocities derived from tomography to model the density distribution of the island of Hawai’i and find that olivine-rich melts and rocks in Hawaiian volcanoes result in a close association of seismic velocity and density. The resultant density model reproduces more than 95% of the observed gravity disturbance signal wherever tomographic control exists and provides a basis for evaluating the body forces from gravity. We also find that if the decollement is weak, then gravitational body forces can produce slip that explains most seismo-tectonic and volcano-tectonic structural features of Kīlauea volcano. Where the decollement is in a state of incipient slip from this weight distribution, fluctuations in magma pressure can trigger accelerated slip on the decollement. Yet this is only true of the south flank of Kīlauea volcano. Though weight and magma distributions produce significant forces driving the west flank of Mauna Loa seaward, this flank is stable. Stability over the last decade indicates a strong foundation beneath the west flank of Mauna Loa, perhaps as a result of large debris avalanches that occurred there that scraped clay-rich sediments off of the decollement.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Post audit of simulated groundwater flow to a short-lived (2019-2020) crater lake at Kīlauea Volcano

About 14.5 months after the 2018 eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, liquid water started accumulating in the deepened summit crater, forming a lake that attained 51 m depth before rapidly boiling off on December 20, 2020, when an eruption from the crater wall poured lava into the lake. Modeling the growth of the crater lake at Kīlauea summit is important for assessing the potential for explosive volcanism. Our current understanding of the past 2500 years of eruptive activity at Kīlauea suggests a slight dominance of explosive behavior over effusive. The deepened summit crater and presence of the crater lake in 2019 raised renewed concerns about explosive activity. Groundwater models using hydraulic-property data from a nearby drillhole successfully forecast the timing and rate of lake filling. Here we compare the groundwater-model predictions with observational data through the demise of the crater lake, examine the implications for local water-table configuration, consider the potential role of evaporation and recharge (neglected in previous models), and briefly discuss the energetics of the rapid boil-off. This post audit of groundwater-flow models of Kīlauea summit shows that simple models can sometimes be used effectively to simulate complex settings such as volcanoes.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

The contribution of water radiolysis to marine sedimentary life

Water radiolysis continuously produces H 2 and oxidized chemicals in wet sediment and rock. Radiolytic H 2 has been identified as the primary electron donor (food) for microorganisms in continental aquifers kilometers below Earth’s surface. Radiolytic products may also be significant for sustaining life in subseafloor sediment and subsurface environments of other planets. However, the extent to which most subsurface ecosystems rely on radiolytic products has been poorly constrained, due to incomplete understanding of radiolytic chemical yields in natural environments. Here we show that all common marine sediment types catalyse radiolytic H 2 production, amplifying yields by up to 27X relative to pure water. In electron equivalents, the global rate of radiolytic H 2 production in marine sediment appears to be 1-2% of the global organic flux to the seafloor. However, most organic matter is consumed at or near the seafloor, whereas radiolytic H 2 is produced at all sediment depths. Comparison of radiolytic H 2 consumption rates to organic oxidation rates suggests that water radiolysis is the principal source of biologically accessible energy for microbial communities in marine sediment older than a few million years. Where water permeates similarly catalytic material on other worlds, life may also be sustained by water radiolysis.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2020

Very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic artifacts during the 2018 caldera collapse at Kīlauea, Hawaii

Throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i), episodic collapses of a portion of the volcano’s summit caldera produced repeated M w "> M w 4.9–5.3 earthquakes. Each of these 62 events was characterized by a very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic signal ( ⁠ > 40    s "> > 40 s ⁠ ). Although collapses in the later stage of the eruption produced earthquakes with significant amplitude clipping on near‐summit broadband seismometers, the first 12 were accurately recorded. For these initial collapse events, we compare average VLP seismograms at six near‐summit locations to synthetic seismograms derived from displacements at collocated Global Positioning System stations. We show that the VLP seismic signal was generated by a radially outward and upward ramp function in displacement. We propose that at local distances the period of the VLP seismic signal is solely dependent on the duration of this ramp function and the instrument transfer function, that is, the seismic VLP is an artifact of the bandlimited instrument response and not representative of real ground motion. The displacement ramp function imposes a sinc‐function velocity amplitude spectrum that cannot be fully recovered through standard seismic instrument deconvolution. Any near‐summit VLP signals in instrument‐response‐corrected velocity or displacement seismograms from these collapse events are subject to severe band limitation. Similarly, the seismic amplitude response is not flat through the low‐frequency corner, for example, instrument‐response‐uncorrected seismograms scaled by instrument sensitivity are equally prone to band limitation. This observation is crucial when attempting to clarify the different contributions to the VLP source signature. Not accounting for this effect could lead to misunderstanding of the magmatic processes involved.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Seismic velocity variations associated with the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi

The 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea (Hawai‘i) marked a dramatic change in the volcano’s 35-year-long rift zone eruption. The collapse of the middle East Rift Zone vent Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō was followed by one of the volcano’s most voluminous eruptions in 500 years. Over the course of this 3-month eruption, the draining of summit-stored magma led to near-daily collapses of a portion of the caldera and ultimately up to 500 m of summit subsidence. While deformation data indicated that the summit and middle East Rift Zone were inflating for the previous several years, why Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō collapsed and what initiated down-rift dike propagation remains unclear. Using ambient noise seismic interferometry, we show that a Ml5.3 decollement earthquake beneath Kīlauea’s south flank in June 2017 induced a coseismic decrease of up to 0.30% in seismic velocity throughout the volcano. This velocity decrease may have been caused by dynamic stress–induced shallow crustal fracture, i.e., weakening to dilatant crack growth, and was greatest near Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. Additionally, we verify a pre-eruptive increase in seismic velocity, consistent with increasing pressurization in the volcano’s shallow summit magma reservoir. This velocity increase occurred coincident with the first in a series of lower-crustal earthquake swarms, 6 days before a 2-month period of rapid summit and middle East Rift Zone inflation. The increase in up-rift magma-static pressure, combined with the pre-existing weakness from the June 2017 earthquake, may have facilitated down-rift dike propagation and the devastating 2018 eruption.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Modeling groundwater inflow to the new crater lake at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

During the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, scientists relied heavily on a conceptual model of explosive eruptions triggered when lava‐lake levels drop below the water table. Numerical modeling of multiphase groundwater flow and heat transport revealed that, contrary to expectations, liquid water inflow to the drained magma conduit would likely be delayed by months to years, owing to the inability of liquid water to transit a zone of very hot rock. The summit of Kīlauea subsequently experienced an ∼2‐month period of consistent repeated collapses, and the crater now extends below the equilibrium position of the water table. Liquid water first emerged into the deepened crater in late July 2019. The timing of first appearance of liquid water (about 14 months postcollapse) and the rate of crater lake filling (currently ∼27 kg/s) were well‐predicted by the numerical modeling done in late spring 2018, which forecast liquid inflow after 3 to 24 months at rates of 10 to 100 kg/s. A second‐generation groundwater model, reflecting the current crater geometry, forecasts lake filling over the next several years. The successful 2018 to present forecasts with both models are based on unadjusted in situ permeability estimates (1 to 6 × 10 −14 m 2 ) and water‐table elevations (600 to 800 m) from a nearby research drillhole and geophysical surveys. Important unknowns that affect the reliability of longer‐term forecasts include the equilibrium water‐table geometry, the rate of evaporation from the hot and growing crater lake (currently ∼29,000 m 2 at 70‐80 °C), and heterogenous permeability changes caused by the 2018 collapse.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Post-1978 tumescence at Long Valley Caldera, California: A geophysical perspective

Long Valley Caldera has been restless since at least 1978. Prominent symptoms of this unrest include earthquake swarms and tumescence (inflation) centered on the resurgent dome. Over the years, interpretations of physical processes underlying this unrest have varied considerably. Results from a collection of geophysical studies infer the presence and/or active intrusion of magma in the crust. Geologic evidence, however, does not support recent magmatic activity in the caldera, leading to an interpretation that the caldera volcanic system is moribund, and the current unrest is a result of second boiling (aqueous fluids released during crystallization of the rhyolitic magma that produced the Bishop Tuff). Here, we examine the collective constraints provided by geophysical studies over the past four decades. Although the current geophysical evidence does not conclusively discriminate between unrest driven by recent crustal magmatic intrusion versus second boiling, it does provide evidence that a large volume of partial melt persists within the mid- and lower crust. This implies that the Long Valley Caldera system as a whole is long-lived, and the magma reservoir remains at least partially molten. In the shallow crust, the possibility of small pockets of magma remains. In aggregate, the data suggest commonality with other large, long-lived silicic caldera systems, such as Yellowstone and Campi Flegrei. Although the possibility of eruption within Long Valley Caldera remains unlikely, the geophysical evidence argues that Long Valley has an active magmatic system at depth and we must retain the possibility of eruptive hazards.

California↗