Geology topics

Adam C. Pope

Publications and source records attributed to Adam C. Pope.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Responses of hatchery‐ and natural‐origin adult spring Chinook Salmon to a trap‐and‐haul reintroduction program

The construction of impassable dams severely affected many Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. populations, resulting in reintroduction efforts that are now focused on returning anadromous fish to areas located upstream of these dams. A primary strategy for moving adult salmon and steelhead O. mykiss around a dam or multiple dams involves trapping fish downstream and transporting them to upstream areas (“trap and haul”) for spawning. We conducted a 4‐year radiotelemetry study to evaluate behavior and movement patterns of hatchery‐ and natural‐origin adult spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha after a trap‐and‐haul program was implemented around three dams on the Cowlitz River, Washington. A multistate model was used to describe how factors such as origin, sex, release site location, and discharge affected transition rates to riverine areas where spawning habitat was located. Natural‐origin Chinook Salmon moved upstream from a reservoir release site and entered one of two rivers more quickly and in greater proportions than hatchery‐origin fish. Results from the multistate model indicated that transition rates from the reservoir to the Cowlitz River were 2.2 times higher for natural‐origin Chinook Salmon than for hatchery‐origin fish. About one‐half (49.6%) of the reservoir‐released hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon moved upstream into the Cowlitz River or the Cispus River during the spawning period. The release of hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon directly into these rivers increased the percentage of fish with river fates during the spawning period to 72.3–75.4%. Results from the multistate model showed that factors such as release site location, origin, day of year, and discharge were important predictors of transition intensities between specific locations in the study area. These findings illustrate the need to evaluate how salmon and steelhead respond to trap‐and‐haul methods, allowing for better management of reintroduction efforts in the future.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Effects of the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion on survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, northern California

The California Department of Water Resources and Bureau of Reclamation propose new water intake facilities on the Sacramento River in northern California that would convey some of the water for export to areas south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereinafter referred to as the Delta) through tunnels rather than through the Delta. The collection of water intakes, tunnels, pumping facilities, associated structures, and proposed operations are collectively referred to as California WaterFix. The water intake facilities, hereinafter referred to as the North Delta Diversion (NDD), are proposed to be located on the Sacramento River downstream of the city of Sacramento and upstream of the first major river junction where Sutter Slough branches from the Sacramento River. The NDD can divert a maximum discharge of 9,000 cubic feet per second (ft3 /s) from the Sacramento River, which reduces the amount of Sacramento River inflow into the Delta. In this report, we conduct four analyses to investigate the effect of the NDD and its proposed operation on survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). All analyses used the results of a Bayesian survival model that allowed us to simulate travel time, migration routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through the Delta in response to NDD operations, which affected both inflows to the Delta and operation of the Delta Cross Channel (DCC). For the first analysis, we evaluated the effect of the NDD bypass rules on salmon survival. The NDD bypass rules are a set of operational rule curves designed to provide adaptive levels of fish protection by defining allowable diversion rates as a function of (1) Sacramento River discharge as measured at Freeport, and (2) time of year when endangered runs requiring the most protection are present. We determined that all bypass rule curves except constant low-level pumping (maximum diversion of 900 ft3 /s) could cause a sizeable decrease in survival by as much as 6–10 percentage points. The maximum decrease in survival occurred at an intermediate Sacramento River flow of about 20,000–30,000 ft3 /s. Diversion rates increased rapidly as Sacramento River flows increased from 20,000 ft3 /s to 30,000 ft3 /s, until a maximum diversion rate was reached at 9,000 ft3 /s. Because through-Delta survival increases sharply over this range of Sacramento River flow before beginning to level off with further flow increases, increasing diversion rates over this flow range causes a large decrease in survival relative to no diversion. For the second analysis, we applied the survival model to 82 years of daily simulated flows under the Proposed Action (PA) and No Action Alternative (NAA). The PA includes operation of the Central Valley Project/State Water Project with implementation of the NDD and its operations prescribed by the NDD bypass rules, whereas the NAA assumes system operations without implementation of the NDD. We also evaluated a “Level 1” (L1) scenario, which was similar to the PA scenario but applied the most protective bypass rule known as Level 1 post-pulse operations. We noted a high probability that survival under the PA scenario was lower than under the NAA scenario, and that travel time was longer under PA relative to NAA in most simulation years. However, the largest survival differences between the PA and NAA scenarios occurred during October–November and May–June. Although bypass rules are less restrictive during these periods, we determined that more frequent use of the DCC under PA led to the largest differences in survival between the two scenarios. Additionally, we noted no difference in median survival decreases between the PA and L1 scenarios, although in some years the L1 scenario had a lower survival decrease than the PA scenario. For the third analysis, we proposed a quantitative approach for developing NDD rule curves (that is, prescribed diversion flows for given inflows) by using the survival model to identify diversion rates that meet a criterion of a having a small probability of exceeding a given decrease in survival. We examined diversion rates that led to a 10% chance of exceeding a given decrease in survival for a range of absolute and relative decreases in survival. To maintain a given constant level of protection across the range of river flows, our analysis indicated that diversions had to increase at a much slower rate with respect to Sacramento River flow relative to the rule curves defined in the NDD bypass table. Additionally, we determined that diversion rates could be higher than under the bypass table rule curves at river flows less than 20,000 ft3 /s, but diversions had to be less than defined by NDD bypass rules at higher flows. For the fourth analysis, we simulated the effect of “real-time operations” on salmon survival, where bypass flow rates were determined by the presence of juvenile salmon entering the Delta, as indicated by juvenile salmon catch in a rotary screw trap upstream of the Delta. For this analysis, we evaluated NDD operations as defined by the L1 scenario and an additional scenario (Unlimited Pulse Protection [UPP]) that provided protection to an unlimited number of fish pulses. This analysis indicated that the highest catches occurred during flow pulses when daily survival was high, which caused annual survival to be weighted towards periods of high daily survival, resulting in a high annual survival. We determined that the mean annual survival decreased by 1–4 percentage points, and annual survival decreases were more frequently smaller for the UPP scenario. Additionally, because the UPP scenario protected an unlimited number of fish pulses, decreases in daily survival under the UPP scenario were less than under the L1 scenario.

California↗

USGS2018

Effects of the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion on flow reversals and entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) into Georgiana Slough and the Delta Cross Channel, northern California

The California Department of Water Resources and Bureau of Reclamation propose new water intake facilities on the Sacramento River in northern California that would convey some of the water for export to areas south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereinafter referred to as the Delta) through tunnels rather than through the Delta. The collection of water intakes, tunnels, pumping facilities, associated structures, and proposed operations are collectively referred to as California WaterFix. The water intake facilities, hereinafter referred to as the North Delta Diversion (NDD), are proposed to be located on the Sacramento River downstream of the city of Sacramento and upstream of the first major river junction where Sutter Slough branches from the Sacramento River. The NDD can divert a maximum discharge of 9,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) from the Sacramento River, which reduces the amount of Sacramento River inflow into the Delta. In this report, we conducted three analyses to investigate the effect of the NDD and its proposed operation on entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) into Georgiana Slough and the Delta Cross Channel (DCC). Fish that enter the interior Delta (the network of channels to the south of the Sacramento River) through Georgiana Slough and the DCC survive at lower rates than fish that use other migration routes (Sacramento River, Sutter Slough, and Steamboat Slough). Therefore, fisheries managers were concerned about the extent to which operation of the NDD would increase the proportion of the population entering the interior Delta, which, all else being equal, would lower overall survival through the Delta by increasing the fraction of the population subject to lower survival rates. Operation of the NDD would reduce flow in the Sacramento River, which has the potential to increase the magnitude and duration of reverse flows of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough. In the first analysis, we evaluate the effect of the NDD bypass rules on flow reversals of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough. The NDD bypass rules are a set of operational criteria designed to minimize upstream transport of fish into Georgiana Slough and the DCC, and were developed based on previous studies showing that the magnitude and duration of flow reversals increase the proportion of fish entering Georgiana Slough and the DCC. We estimated the frequency and duration of reverse-flow conditions of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough under each of the prescribed minimum bypass flows described in the NDD bypass rules. To accommodate adaptive levels of protection during different times of year when juvenile salmon are migrating through the Delta, the NDD bypass rules prescribe a series of minimum allowable bypass flows that vary depending on (1) month of the year, and (2) progressively decreasing levels of protection following a pulse flow event. We determined that the NDD bypass rules increased the frequency and duration of reverse flows of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough, with the magnitude of increase varying among scenarios. Constant low-level pumping, the most protective bypass rule that limits diversion to 10 percent of the maximum diversion and is implemented following a pulse-flow event, led to the smallest increase in frequency and duration of flow reversals. In contrast, we found that some scenarios led to sizeable increases in the fraction of the day with reverse flow. The conditions under which the proportion of the day with reverse flow can increase by greater than or equal to 10 percentage points between October and June, when juvenile salmon are present in the Delta, include October–November bypass rules and level-3 post-pulse operations during December–June. These conditions would be expected to increase the proportion of juvenile salmon entering the interior Delta through Georgiana Slough. In the second analysis, we assessed bias in Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2) flow predictions at the junction of the Sacramento River, DCC, and Georgiana Slough. Because DSM2 was being used to simulate California WaterFix operations, understanding the extent of bias relative to USGS streamgages was important since fish routing models were based on flow data at streamgages. We determined that river flow predicted by DSM2 was biased for Georgiana Slough and the Sacramento River. Therefore, for subsequent analysis, we bias-corrected the DSM2 flow predictions using measured stream flows as predictor variables. In the third analysis, we evaluated the effect of the NDD on the daily probability of fish entering Georgiana Slough and the DCC. We applied an existing model to predict entrainment from 15-minute flow simulations for an 82-year time series of flows simulated by DSM2 under the Proposed Action (PA), where the North Delta Diversion is implemented under California WaterFix, and the No Action Alternative (NAA), where the diversion is not implemented. To estimate the daily fraction of fish entering each river channel, entrainment probabilities were averaged over each day. To evaluate the two scenarios, we then compared mean annual entrainment probabilities by month, water year classification, and three different assumed run timings. Overall, the probability of remaining in the Sacramento River was lower under the PA scenario, but the magnitude of the difference was small ( 3 /s. At flows greater than 41,000 ft 3 /s, we hypothesize that entrainment into the interior Delta is relatively constant, which would have caused little difference between scenarios at higher flows.

California↗

USGS2018

Flow-mediated effects on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon in a spatially complex, tidally forced river delta

We evaluated the interacting influences of river flows and tides on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. To quantify these effects, we jointly modeled the travel time, survival, and migration routing in relation to individual time-varying covariates of acoustic-tagged salmon within a Bayesian framework. We used observed arrival times for detected individuals and imputed arrival times for undetected individuals to assign covariate values in each reach. We found travel time was inversely related to river inflow in all reaches, yet survival was positively related to inflow only in reaches that transitioned from bidirectional tidal flows to unidirectional flow with increasing inflows. We also found that the probability of fish entering the interior Delta, a low-survival reach, declined as inflow increased. Our study illustrates how river inflows interact with tides to influence fish survival during the critical transition between freshwater and ocean environments. Furthermore, our analytical framework introduces new techniques to integrate formally over missing covariate values to quantify effects of time-varying covariates.

California↗

USGS2016

Development of a study design and implementation plan to estimate juvenile salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir and other reservoirs of the Willamette Project, western Oregon

Survival estimates for juvenile salmon and steelhead fry in reservoirs impounded by high head dams are coveted data by resource managers. However, this information is difficult to obtain because these fish are too small for tagging using conventional methods such as passive-integrated transponders or radio or acoustic transmitters. We developed a study design and implementation plan to conduct a pilot evaluation that would assess the performance of two models for estimating fry survival in a field setting. The first model is a staggered-release recovery model that was described by Skalski and others (2009) and Skalski (2016). The second model is a parentage-based tagging N -mixture model that was developed and described in this document. Both models are conceptually and statistically sound, but neither has been evaluated in the field. In this document we provide an overview of a proposed study for 2017 in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, that will evaluate survival of Chinook salmon fry using both models. This approach will allow us to test each model and compare survival estimates, to determine model performance and better understand these study designs using field-collected data.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Evaluation of a floating fish guidance structure at a hydrodynamically complex river junction in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA

Survival of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River delta, California, USA, varies by migration route. Survival of salmonids that enter the interior and southern Delta can be as low as half that of salmonids that remain in the main-stem Sacramento River. Reducing entrainment into the higher-mortality routes, such as Georgiana Slough, should increase overall survival. In spring 2014, a floating fish-guidance structure (FFGS) designed to reduce entrainment into Georgiana Slough was deployed just upstream of the Georgiana Slough divergence. We used acoustic telemetry to evaluate the effect of the FFGS on Chinook entrainment to Georgiana Slough. At intermediate discharge (200–400 m 3 s –1 ), entrainment into Georgiana Slough was five percentage points lower when the FFGS was in the on state (19.1% on; 23.9% off). At higher discharge (>400 m 3 s –1 ), entrainment was higher when the FFGS was in the on state (19.3% on; 9.7% off), and at lower discharge (0–200 m 3 s –1 ) entrainment was lower when the FFGS was in the on state (43.7% on; 47.3% off). We found that discharge, cross-stream fish position, time of day, and proportion of flow remaining in the Sacramento River contributed to the probability of being entrained to Georgiana Slough.

California↗

USGS2008

Survival and migration behavior of juvenile salmonids at Lower Granite Dam, 2006

We described behavior and estimated passage and survival parameters of juvenile salmonids during spring and summer migration periods at Lower Granite Dam in 2006. During the spring, the study was designed to examine the effects of the Behavioral Guidance Structure (BGS) by using a randomized-block BGS Stored / BGS Deployed treatment design. The summer study was designed to compare passage and survival through Lower Granite Dam using a randomized-block design during two spill treatments while the BGS was in the stored position. We used the Route Specific Survival Model to estimate survival and passage probabilities of hatchery yearling Chinook salmon, hatchery juvenile steelhead, and hatchery and wild subyearling Chinook salmon. We also estimated fish guidance efficiency (FGE), fish passage efficiency (FPE), Removable Spillway Weir passage effectiveness (RPE), spill passage effectiveness (SPY), and combined spill and RSW passage effectiveness.

Idaho, Oregon,Washington↗