Geology topics

Adam C. Pope

Publications and source records attributed to Adam C. Pope.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Who needs closure? Estimating abundance with a Markovian availability model for geographically open removal sampling

Removal sampling is an important method for estimating abundance, but nearly all removal models assume closure during sampling. Yet, closure may be difficult to assume, evaluate, or enforce in many settings. To address situations where populations are geographically open between each removal sample, we incorporated a Markovian availability process into an N-mixture model framework. This model relates local abundance available for sampling to a superpopulation through recruitment of new individuals to the sampling area. To test the model, we (1) conducted parameter identifiability analysis, (2) fit the model to removal data generated from a random walk movement model, and (3) analyzed a case study of empirical removal data. Parameters were increasingly identifiable as capture probability exceeded 0.25 and removal samples increased from 3 to 6. Abundance estimates were unbiased when parameters were identifiable, except for scenarios that simulated a behavioral response to sampling. For our case study, the model estimated negligible recruitment for benthic-oriented fishes, indicating closure, but we found evidence against closure for juvenile Chinook salmon, a highly mobile species. Our removal model allows researchers to formally test closure assumptions, to estimate the degree of closure, and to estimate abundance without bias when closure is violated.

California↗

USGS2025

Survival, travel time, and use of migration routes by juvenile steelhead in a modified river estuary

Greater understanding of the survival, travel time, and spatial distribution of juvenile salmonids among migration routes between their natal streams and the ocean is critical to the recovery of these threatened species. In the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta), a highly modified estuary in central California, USA, there is a critical need to evaluate how water management (e.g., water pumping) and environmental factors (e.g., water flow) impact these populations. While management actions can affect some environmental variables in the Delta, only recently have studies begun to uncover associations between these variables and key demographic parameters. In this study, we examine the effects of freshwater flows, water exports, tidal environment, and a temporary barrier on juvenile steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) survival, travel times, and migration routing using a multiyear acoustic telemetry dataset and recent advancements in Bayesian multistate mark-recapture modeling. We found that no single covariate explained variation in juvenile steelhead population dynamics across the entire Delta, but that separate regions within the Delta showed association with specific environmental factors.

California↗

USGS2024

Individual-based ecological particle tracking model (ECO-PTM) for simulating juvenile chinook salmon migration and survival through the Sacramento – San Joaquin Delta

Recovery of endangered salmon species in the Central Valley of California amidst prolonged drought and climate change necessitates innovative water management actions that balance species recovery and California's water demands. We describe an individual-based ecological particle tracking model (ECO-PTM) that can be used to assess the efficacy of proposed actions. Based on a random walk theory, the model tracks individual particles’ travel time, routing and survival in a flow field simulated by the Delta Simulation Model 2 hydrodynamic module (DSM2 HYDRO). The random walk particles are parameterized to have fish-like swimming behaviors, including upstream/downstream swimming, probabilistic holding behaviors, and stochastic swimming velocities. Particle routing at key junctions is based on well-established statistical models, and route-specific survival is calculated using the XT mean free-path length model. Behavioral parameters were estimated by fitting several competing models to a multiyear dataset of travel times from acoustic tagged juvenile salmon. The model’s baseline simulations under historical flow conditions from 1991 to 2016 successfully replicated essential relationships between salmon outmigration survival and hydrodynamic conditions, consistent with previous studies and the STARS (Survival Travel Time and Routing Simulation) statistical simulation model. Simulation results for management scenarios revealed multifaceted influences on fish survival, including Delta flow, flow at key junctions, route alterations, seasons, and water year characteristics. Importantly, these results highlight ECO-PTM’s potential to predict fish survival outcomes of proposed actions, serving as a foundation for informed future research, decision-making, and effective management strategies to enhance the survival prospects of out-migrating salmonids within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ecosystem.

California↗

USGS2024

Using parentage-based tagging to estimate survival of Chinook salmon fry in a large storage reservoir

Research efforts focusing on salmonid populations have highlighted the need to better understand demographic parameters for the fry and parr life stages. Monitoring these small fish presents a challenge because negative effects from handling and tagging can bias subsequent parameter estimates. Removal models and associated sampling designs represent one class of mark-recapture models with potential to be applied to very small juvenile salmon, yet existing methods associated with removal studies are not well-suited for all study environments. For example, populations residing in large storage reservoirs may yield low capture probabilities when subjected to removal sampling, making unbiased estimation of survival using traditional removal models difficult. To address this limitation, we developed a sampling design and associated model using parentage-based tagging in hatchery-raised juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) to estimate survival over a 2-year study period in a large storage reservoir in western Oregon, USA. Individual fish were identified to family groups, serving as replicate batch marks in a robust design removal model framework. Results from a simulation suggested that parameter estimates were unbiased even at very low capture probabilities, although the use of model constraints (i.e., covariates or constant parameter values) was necessary to achieve this. Model fitting to field data supported a trend in survival over time, with survival increasing with time since release in the first study year but decreasing in the second.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2023

Survival implications of diversion entrainment for outmigrating juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss)

Efforts to ameliorate negative effects of diversion dams on aquatic species of concern are important in rivers where water withdrawal supports agricultural economies and are likely to become increasingly important with impending climate change. A multiyear study was conducted to evaluate the survival consequences of diversion dam passage for juvenile Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) in the highly managed Yakima River, Washington. Canal entrainment and passage were evaluated at four diversion dams encountered by seaward migrating juvenile salmon and steelhead. Fish pass dams via spillbays or enter canals with downstream fish-screening facilities designed to collect entrained fish and return them to the mainstem river. Percent entrainment into canals was substantial (6–59%) at three of the four diversion dams studied, and entrainment probability was positively associated with the proportion of streamflow diverted into canals. Survival probability estimates for groups of tagged fish that were entrained into canals were lower than survival probability estimates for tagged fish that passed through spillbays on the dams. Absolute differences in survival probabilities between routes ranged from 0.099 to 0.369, demonstrating that canal entrainment reduced survival of outmigrating juvenile Chinook Salmon and steelhead. We also found that entrainment resulted in migration delays, which could further affect survival because fish are increasingly exposed to predation and decreased water quality as water temperature increases throughout the migration season. These results highlight the need to limit entrainment of juvenile salmon and steelhead at diversion dams in rivers where salmon recovery is important.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Spatial and temporal overlap between hatchery- and natural-origin steelhead and Chinook salmon during spawning in the Klickitat River, Washington, USA

A goal of many segregated salmonid hatchery programs is to minimize potential interbreeding between hatchery- and natural-origin fish. To assess this on the Klickitat River, Washington, USA, we used radiotelemetry during 2009–2014 to evaluate spatiotemporal spawning overlap between hatchery-origin and natural-origin steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss and spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha. We estimated percentages of tagged fish that spawned naturally in the Klickitat River subbasin, emigrated from the Klickitat River, or died before spawning. For steelhead, 12% of hatchery-origin and 50% of natural-origin fish spawned naturally. For spring Chinook Salmon, 18% of hatchery-origin and 44% of natural-origin fish spawned naturally. Tag loss may result in underestimates in these percentages. Most hatchery-origin steelhead (90%) spawned downstream of rkm 32 and 75% spawned from November to mid-March, while the majority of natural-origin steelhead (64%) spawned upstream of rkm 32 and 75% spawned from mid-March to late May. Spawn timing of hatchery-origin Chinook Salmon (early August to mid-September) overlapped with that of natural-origin Chinook Salmon (late July to late September), and fish of both origins spawned in the same 30-km reach of the river. We estimated the percent of hatchery-origin spawners on the natural spawning grounds (pHOS) to be 12% for steelhead and 40% for spring Chinook Salmon across all study years. A kernel density analysis was used to estimate probability of spatiotemporal overlap between hatchery- and natural-origin spawners. For steelhead, we estimated this overlap to be 25% (95% CI 22.5–28%). For spring Chinook Salmon, tight spatial clustering of hatchery-origin fish resulted in a lower overlap estimate of 21% (13%-31%). We suggest adjusting pHOS estimates using these overlap estimates or similar spatiotemporal data on actual spawner proximity and possible interactions, and that these types of analyses be used in conjunction with gene flow analysis to accurately evaluate effects of individual hatchery programs.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Simulating the migration dynamics of juvenile salmonids through rivers and estuaries using a hydrodynamically driven enhanced particle tracking model

Juvenile salmonids migrate hundreds of kilometers from their natal streams to mature in the ocean. Throughout this migration, they respond to environmental cues such as local water velocities and other stimuli to direct and modulate their movements, often through heavily modified riverine and estuarine habitats. Management strategies in an uncertain future of climate change and altered land use regimes depend heavily on being able to reliably predict their ocean entry timings, route use, and survival rates through rivers and estuaries. We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model of fish movement in response to hydrodynamic flows that uses movement dynamics gleaned from multi-dimensional tracking datasets of acoustically tagged juveniles moving through an urbanized, branched tidal estuary. We demonstrate how such models can be calibrated, and we apply it to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in Central California. The quality of the out-of-sample validation of the model to predict juvenile salmon survival and route selection indicates that the model is versatile and flexible enough to be used in novel hydroclimatological conditions.

California↗

USGS2022

Assessing the efficacy of using a parentage-based tagging survival model to evaluate two sources of mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon

We conducted a study to assess the efficacy of using a parentage-based tagging survival model (PBT N-mixture model) to evaluate two sources of mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon. The model was originally developed to evaluate reservoir mortality because of predation from piscivorous fish. However, recent studies have also found that juvenile Chinook salmon experience high infection rates from parasitic copepods ( Salmincola californiensis ), which are known to negatively affect performance and survival. Our study was conducted to determine if the PBT N-mixture model could separately estimate mortality because of predation from non-native fish and mortality resulting from copepod infection. This assessment was conducted in two parts: (1) data collected in Lookout Point Reservoir during 2018 were re-analyzed; and (2) a simulation was conducted to evaluate a multi-year study that included inter-annual variation in copepod infection rate and two subsampling strategies (10 fish per month, 30 fish per month) to characterize monthly copepod infection rate. Results from each of these efforts suggest that the survival model is unlikely to provide reliable survival estimates for the two mortality sources that we evaluated. The re-analysis of 2018 data showed that “predation only” and “copepod only” models estimated a negative coefficient for the respective covariate, but the model that included both covariates provided coefficient estimates that differed from the other models and were highly uncertain. Similarly, the simulation results showed that most models failed to correctly estimate the magnitude and direction of mortality due to predation and copepods. These results suggest that additional data will be required if a model is desired that can separately estimate mortality effects due to both predation and copepods in the future. The existing data are limited by factors including low detection probabilities from previous field studies, existing uncertainties about copepod effects on mortality in a natural setting and expected limitations in the number of years that a field study could realistically be expected to receive funding.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Quantifying the effects of tides, river flow, and barriers on movements of Chinook Salmon smolts at junctions in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta using multistate models

Successful migration of Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts seaward in the Sacramento – San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, Delta) requires navigating a network of numerous branching channels. Within the Delta, several key junctions route smolts either towards more direct paths to the ocean or towards the interior Delta, an area associated with decreased survival. Movements within these junctions that determine route choice can be influenced by numerous behavioral and environmental factors, including the complex interplay between tidal and riverine hydraulics. Here, we apply continuous time multistate Markov models to examine the influence of tidal and riverine hydraulics, behavioral factors, and management actions on smolt movements. These models incorporate more information from acoustic telemetry data compared with previous approaches to modeling smolt movements in the Delta. By decomposing modeled flows into tidal and net flow signals we elucidate how each component influences movements into and out of distributary channels. Increasing net flows generally increased movement rates, while flood tides decreased seaward movement rates. Similarly, ebb tides increased downstream movements as fish go with the flow. We found less support for diel movement behaviors compared to flow metrics. Additionally, we quantify the effects of a large management action, the placement of a physical barrier, which was effective at decreasing entrainment into the interior Delta. Together, these results help inform management of Chinook Salmon and increase our understanding of the major factors driving smolt movements within these key junctions.

California↗

USGS2022

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California↗

USGS2021

Adult sockeye salmon responses to transplanting upstream of an impassable dam

The Yakama Nation manages a program for reintroducing Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka upstream of Cle Elum Dam in the Yakima River basin. The program involves transplanting of a mix of adult Sockeye Salmon from two middle Columbia River donor stocks, Lake Wenatchee (WEN) and Osoyoos Lake (OSO), with the goal of establishing a self-sustaining population in the basin. In 2017, a subset of the transplanted population was radio-tagged and monitored to assess stock-specific responses to transplanting, including downstream entrainment at Cle Elum Dam (“fallback”) and prespawn mortality. Tagged fish were active during the first two weeks after release: some fish moved upstream into the Cle Elum River and then returned to the reservoir; other fish moved downstream and passed Cle Elum Dam. Movement within the study area diminished during August but increased in September when fish began migrating up the Cle Elum River for spawning. A greater proportion of WEN fish (76.3%) were detected entering the river compared to OSO fish (53.9%). The hazard ratio from a multistate analysis of fish behavior indicated that WEN fish were nine times more likely to enter the river than OSO fish. The WEN fish also initiated upstream movement three weeks earlier than OSO fish. We found that 27.0% of all tagged fish were lost to the spawning population through fallback (20.7%) and prespawn mortality (6.3%). Fallback and pre-spawn mortality occurred for a greater percentage of OSO fish (26.9% and 7.7%) than WEN fish (15.3% and 5.1%) but these differences were not statistically different. These results provide foundational information from the early phase of a reintroduction effort. Continued monitoring will be required as Sockeye Salmon evolve to conditions upstream of Cle Elum Dam, and results from these efforts will provide valuable insights for this reintroduction effort and others in river systems with similar characteristics.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Juvenile Chinook salmon survival, travel time, and floodplain use relative to riverine channels in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

Floodplains provide multiple benefits to both resident and migratory fish species, including juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , but direct comparisons of survival during migration through a floodplain versus riverine routes are scarce. The Yolo Bypass is a broad floodplain of the Sacramento River that floods in about 30% of years in response to large, uncontrolled runoff events. We analyzed data from an acoustic telemetry study conducted in winter 2016 to estimate the proportion of tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon entrained from the Sacramento River into the Yolo Bypass and their spatial distribution within the Yolo Bypass. In addition, we compared survival and travel time of Chinook Salmon that migrated through the Yolo Bypass to those migrating via alternative non‐floodplain migration routes at varying stages of a flood event that activated the Yolo Bypass. We found that entrainment into the Yolo Bypass ranged from 1% to 80% among different release groups, with the highest entrainment coinciding with the peak of the March 2016 flooding event. Survival for Chinook Salmon migrating through the Yolo Bypass was similar to survival of those migrating through main‐stem migration routes. At the relatively high flows necessary to enable flooding of the Yolo Bypass, survival estimates varied little among release groups and migration routes. Furthermore, mean daily survival rates for Chinook Salmon migrating through the flooded Yolo Bypass were comparable to those of fish migrating through the other non‐floodplain routes. Median travel times remained relatively constant during various stages of flooding in the Yolo Bypass. This research should help managers to better understand the potential costs and benefits to floodplain restoration and routing of migrating Chinook Salmon into off‐channel habitat.

California↗

USGS2020

Combining models of the critical streakline and the cross-sectional distribution of juvenile salmon to predict fish routing at river junctions

Because fish that enter the interior Delta have poorer survival than those emigrating via the Sacramento River, understanding the mechanisms that drive entrainment rates at side channel junctions is critically important for the management of imperiled juvenile salmon. Here, we implement a previously proposed process-based conceptual model to study entrainment rates based on three linked elements: the entrainment zone, critical streakline, and cross-sectional distribution of fish. The critical streakline is the location along a channel cross-section immediately upstream of a junction that forms the spatial divide between parcels of water that enter a side channel or remain in the main channel. The critical streakline therefore divides the main channel into entrainment zones within which fish would likely enter each channel. Combined with information about the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of a junction, this conceptual model provides a means to predict fish entrainment into each channel. To apply this conceptual model, we combined statistical models of the critical streakline, the cross-sectional distribution of acoustic tagged juvenile Chinook salmon, and their probability of entrainment into Georgiana Slough. We fit joint beta regression and logistic regression models to acoustic telemetry data gathered in 2011 and 2012 to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of the junction, and to estimate the probability of entrainment for fish on either side of the critical streakline. We show that entrainment rates can be predicted by understanding how the combination of critical streakline position and cross-sectional distribution of fish co-vary as a function of environmental covariates. By integrating over individual positions and entrainment fates to arrive at population-level entrain probability in relation to environmental covariates, our model offers managers a simple but powerful tool to evaluate how alternative actions affect migrating fish.

California↗

USGS2019

A temporally stratified extension of space‐for‐time Cormack–Jolly–Seber for migratory animals

Understanding drivers of temporal variation in demographic parameters is a central goal of mark‐recapture analysis. To estimate the survival of migrating animal populations in migration corridors, space‐for‐time mark–recapture models employ discrete sampling locations in space to monitor marked populations as they move past monitoring sites, rather than the standard practice of using fixed sampling points in time. Because these models focus on estimating survival over discrete spatial segments, model parameters are implicitly integrated over the temporal dimension. Furthermore, modeling the effect of time‐varying covariates on model parameters is complicated by unknown passage times for individuals that are not detected at monitoring sites. To overcome these limitations, we extended the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) framework to estimate temporally stratified survival and capture probabilities by including a discretized arrival time process in a Bayesian framework. We allow for flexibility in the model form by including temporally stratified covariates and hierarchical structures. In addition, we provide tools for assessing model fit and comparing among alternative structural models for the parameters. We demonstrate our framework by fitting three competing models to estimate daily survival, capture, and arrival probabilities at four hydroelectric dams for over 200 000 individually tagged migratory juvenile salmon released into the Snake River, USA.

Biometrics↗

USGS2019

Using the STARS model to evaluate the effects of the proposed action for the reinitiation of consultation on the coordinated long-term operation of the Central Valley and State Water Project

In 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and California Department of Water Resources requested a reinitiation of consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act on the coordinated long-term operations of the Central Valley and State Water Projects. This resulted in a Biological Assessment released by USBR in 2019. In its analysis of the Biological Assessment for its Biological Opinion on the proposed action, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey to describe the effect of the proposed action on juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) populations migrating through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (henceforth called “the Delta”). Therefore, in this report we analyzed an 82-year time series of simulated river flows and Delta Cross Channel (DCC) gate operations under two scenarios constructed for the Biological Assessment: the proposed-action (PA) scenario and the continuing-operations scenario (COS). To evaluate the proposed action, we used the STARS model ( S urvival, T ravel time, A nd R outing S imulation model), a stochastic, individual-based simulation model designed to predict survival of a cohort of fish that experiences variable daily river flows as the fish migrate through the Delta. The STARS model uses parameter estimates from a Bayesian mark-recapture model that jointly estimates travel time and survival in eight discrete reaches of the Delta and migration routing at two key river junctions. By applying the STARS model to the two 82-year scenarios, we found that the proposed action had negative effects on survival, travel time, and routing in October–December but positive effects in April–June. In October–December, there was a high probability that survival in the PA scenario was less than that in the COS, and that travel time and routing to the Interior Delta for the PA scenario was greater than that for the COS. The magnitude of the difference in survival between scenarios was larger in some years than in others. For example, we quantified that survival under the PA scenario was 10 percent lower than under the COS in 25 percent of the water years from October through December. During this period, inflow to the Delta tended to be lower under the PA scenario, and the DCC gate was open more frequently under the PA scenario than during the COS. Lower inflow reduces survival, and more frequent operation of the DCC gate 1) increases the proportion of fish entering the Interior Delta, where survival is low, and thus 2) reduces survival in the Sacramento River in reaches downstream of the DCC. In contrast, during the period April–June, survival was higher, travel times were lower, and routing to the Interior Delta was lower under the PA scenario relative to the COS, although the magnitude of the increase in survival was relatively small in most years (less than a 3-percent difference in survival). This difference between scenarios was driven by higher river flows in some years under the PA scenario relative to the COS. Overall, the differences in survival, travel time, and routing distance between the two operational scenarios were primarily driven by the timing and magnitude of the annual high river flows.

California↗

USGS2019

Juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) survival in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, 2018

A field study was conducted to estimate survival of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, during 2018. The study consisted of releasing three groups of genetically-marked fish into the reservoir, and sampling them monthly. Juveniles were released during April 10–13 (116,708 fish), May 15–18 (31,911 fish), and June 19–20 (11,758 fish). Reservoir sampling began in May and occurred monthly through October, consisting of 5-day events where juvenile Chinook salmon were collected using electrofishing, shoreline traps, and gill nets. Data were analyzed using a staggered release-recovery model and a parentage-based tagging (PBT) N-mixture model. The staggered release-recovery model provided survival estimates from three periods: mid-April to mid-May (SSRRM1); mid-May to mid-June (SSRRM2); and mid-April to mid-June (SSRRM12). Multiple estimates of survival were possible for each period using different combinations of recovery data from the three groups of fish that were released. Survival probability estimates for SSRRM1 ranged from 0.98520 to 0.98954; estimates for SSRRM2 ranged from 0.09338 to 0.62142; and the estimate for cumulative survival from mid-April to mid-June (SSRRM12) were 0.75211. We suspect that issues with release groups in May ( R 2 ) and June ( R 3 ) led to biased survival results using the staggered release-recovery model. The PBT N-mixture model provided survival estimates from six periods: mid-April to mid-May (SNMIX1); mid-May to mid-June (SNMIX2), mid-June to mid-July (SNMIX3), mid-July to mid-August (SNMIX4), mid-August to mid-September (SNMIX5); and mid-September to mid-October (SNMIX6). Survival estimates from the PBT N-mixture model were lowest for SNMIX6 (0.41620) and highest for SNMIX1 (0.79587). These results differed from those in 2017 when monthly survival increased across months. This suggests that one or more factors could have affected juvenile Chinook salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir. One possible factor could be copepods (which were highly prevalent on juvenile Chinook salmon during summer 2018), but environmental factors such as reserveroir elevation, discharge at Lookout Point Dam, and fish distributions within the reservoir differed between study years. Two PBT N-mixture models provided cumulative survival estimates from mid-April to mid-October. Estimates from the two models were 0.061 and 0.039, which suggests that survival of subyearling Chinook salmon in Lookout Point Reservoir was very low in 2018. Additional research is recommended to better understand inter-annual variability of subyearling Chinook salmon in the reservoir and to gain insights into factors that affect their survival.

Oregon↗

USGS2019

Evaluation of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) fry survival at Lookout Point Reservoir, western Oregon, 2017

A field study was conducted to estimate survival of fry-sized juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in Lookout Point Reservoir, western Oregon, during 2017. The field study consisted of releasing three groups of genetically marked fish in the reservoir and monthly fish sampling. Fish were released during April 18–19 (43,950 fish), May 30–June 2 (44,145 fish), and on June 28, 2017 (3,920 fish). Reservoir sampling began in May and occurred monthly through October, consisting of 5-day events where juvenile Chinook salmon were collected using various gear types (electrofishing, shoreline traps, gill nets). Data were analyzed using two models: (1) a staggered release-recovery model (SRRM), and (2) a parentage-based tagging (PBT) N -mixture model. The SRRM provided survival estimates from two periods: (1) mid-April to late May (S SRRM1 ), and (2) late May to late June (S SRRM2 ). Multiple estimates of survival were possible for each period using different combinations of recovery data from the three groups of fish that were released. Survival estimates for S SRRM1 ranged from 0.470 to 0.520. Estimates for S SRRM2 ranged from 0.968 to 0.969; cumulative survival from mid-April to late June (S SRRM2 ) was estimated at 0.870. We suspect that issues with the third release group led to biased survival results using the SRRM. The PBT N -mixture model provided survival estimates from six periods: (1) mid-April to mid-May (S NMIX1 ), (2) mid-May to mid-June (S NMIX2 ), (3) mid-June to mid-July (S NMIX3 ), (4) mid-July to mid-August (S NMIX4 ), (5) mid-August to mid-September (S NMIX5 ), and (6) mid-September to mid-October (S NMIX6 ). Survival estimates from the PBT N -mixture model were lowest for S NMIX1 (0.461) and increased monthly to a high of 0.970 for S NMIX6 . Cumulative survival from mid-April to mid-July was 0.233 and overall survival from mid-April to mid-October was 0.188. This suggests that most mortality occurred early in the study when juvenile Chinook salmon were small. This could be because these fish were most vulnerable to predation in the reservoir at that time. We determined that mortality of juvenile Chinook salmon was high in the reservoir during this study and similar estimates of parr-to-smolt survival have been observed in other systems. Additional analyses are required, including results from the second year of study (2018), and potentially similar evaluations will need to be made at other locations to determine if reservoir mortality is a limiting survival factor for Chinook salmon in the Middle Fork Willamette River.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Survival, travel time, and utilization of Yolo Bypass, California, by outmigrating acoustic-tagged late-fall Chinook salmon

Juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through California's Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta toward the Pacific Ocean face numerous challenges to their survival. The Yolo Bypass is a broad floodplain of the Sacramento River that floods in about 70 percent of years in response to large, uncontrolled runoff events. As one of the routes juvenile salmon may utilize, the Yolo Bypass has recently received attention for having potential benefit to rearing and migrating salmon. Consideration is being given to a plan to build a cut or “notch” in the Fremont Weir to increase juvenile salmon access to the Yolo Bypass. To help provide information about the potential benefit of such a plan, we analyzed data from a telemetry study conducted in February and March 2016 by the U.S. Geological Survey and California Department of Water Resources to estimate entrainment into and distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Yolo Bypass, and to compare survival and travel time through the Yolo Bypass to other routes in the Delta. We also estimated juvenile Chinook salmon survival through three short reaches of the Sacramento River where the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion intakes would divert water to export facilities to provide baseline information against which any effects of those intakes could be measured in the future. We found that entrainment into the Yolo Bypass varied widely and was quite high only at the peak of the March 2016 flood. Spatial distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Yolo Bypass was fairly even for fish entering the Yolo Bypass over the Fremont Weir, but increasingly skewed toward the east bank for fish released within the Yolo Bypass. Survival within Yolo Bypass was not significantly different for fish based on spatial distribution. Survival through the Delta for fish migrating through the Yolo Bypass was generally on par with the weighted survival through the Delta of fish migrating through all other routes. Survival was highest for fish remaining in the Sacramento River and lowest for those entrained into the Interior Delta via Georgiana Slough. Survival through the short section of the Sacramento River near the proposed North Delta Diversion intakes was high.

California↗