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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ( E p ) as inputs. Because E p is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of E p must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several E p methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible E p method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress ( E w ). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used E p methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in E p associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the E p -change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration ( E ), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1979

The Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming : a preview to expanded coal-resource development and its impacts on regional water resources

Expanded coal production and conversion in the Yampa River basin , Colorado and Wyoming, may have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and socioeconomic conditions. Preliminary results of a 3-year basin assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey are given for evaluation of surface- and ground-water resources using available data, modeling analysis of waste-load capacity of a Yampa River reach affected by municipal wastewater-treatment plant effluents, and semiquantitative descriptions of ambient air- and water-quality conditions. Aspects discussed are possible constraints on proposed development due to basin compacts and laws regulating water resources, possible changes in environmental-control regulations, and policies on energy-resource leasing and land use that will influence regional economic development. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km 2 ) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km 2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km 2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

California↗
USGS2007

Regional impact of water resource investments in an developing area

Regional development and industrialization patterns are investigated and related via regression analysis to water resource investments for the island of Puerto Rico. Although results of this study indicate such investments have little immediate or short‐term impact, significant relationships and variations in regional responses appear over longer time periods. This is shown by applying a variation of Zellner's method of performing seemingly unrelated regressions jointly. By this method, subsets of parameter coefficients of specific economic variables were restricted across regional equations while unrestricted coefficients were interpreted as explaining systematic regional variations in response to public investment. Regional differences, obtained by using this method, are frequently neglected when simply examining the overall development process. Among the more interesting results in terms of policy implications is the apparent significant relationship, over the period considered, between changes in the distribution of income and the pattern of water resource development.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1976

Hydrologic studies of the U.S. Geological Survey related to coal development in Colorado

The coal resources of Colorado are extremely valuable. Viewed in the perspective of the existing energy crisis, coal is the sole energy resource for which the United States is completely self-sufficient. The productive life of known oil and gas fields is measured in decades, whereas the productive life of coal resources, based on present rates of production, is measured in centuries. Twenty-eight percent of the State of Colorado is underlain by coal (fig. 1). The U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates that total coal resources that can be strip mined are approximately 18 billion tons (16.3 billion t). Development of coal resources and associated activities will impact water resources.

Colorado↗
USGS2009

Introduction to special section on impacts of land use change on water resources

Changes in land use have potentially large impacts on water resources, yet quantifying these impacts remains among the more challenging problems in hydrology. Water, food, energy, and climate are linked through complex webs of direct and indirect effects and feedbacks. Land use is undergoing major changes due not only to pressures for more efficient food, feed, and fiber production to support growing populations but also due to policy shifts that are creating markets for biofuel and agricultural carbon sequestration. Hydrologic systems embody flows of water, solutes, sediments, and energy that vary even in the absence of human activity. Understanding land use impacts thus necessitates integrated scientific approaches. Field measurements, remote sensing, and modeling studies are shedding new light on the modes and mechanisms by which land use changes impact water resources. Such studies can help deconflate the interconnected influences of human actions and natural variations on the quantity and quality of soil water, surface water, and groundwater, past, present, and future.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2015

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CV wh ) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CV wh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

California↗
USGS2002

Statistical summaries of water-quality data for selected streamflow-gaging stations in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Dakota

The quantity and quality of current and future water resources in the Red River of the North Basin in North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Dakota are concerns of people who reside within the basin. Additional water resources are needed because of recent growth in population, industry, and agriculture. How the management of current and future water-resources will impact water quality within the basin is a critical issue. Water-quality data, particularly for surface-water sources, will help water-resources managers make decisions about current and future water resources in the Red River of the North Basin. Statistical summaries of water-quality data for 43 streamflow-gaging stations in the Red River of the North Basin in North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Dakota are presented in this report. Statistical summaries include sample size, maximum, minimum, mean, and values for the 95th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 5th percentiles.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

Source, Use, and Disposition of Freshwater in Puerto Rico, 2005

Water diverted from streams and pumped from wells constitutes the main sources of water for the 78 municipios of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. A better understanding is needed about water-use patterns, particularly about the amount of water used, where and how this water is used and disposed, and how human activities impact water resources. Irrigation practices, indoor and outdoor household uses, industrial uses, and commercial and mining withdrawals affect reservoirs, streams, and aquifers. Accurate and accessible water information for Puerto Rico is critical to ensure that water managers have the ability to protect and conserve this natural resource. The population of Puerto Rico increased 15 percent, from 3.4 million in 1985 to 3.9 million people 2005 and resulted in an increased demand for freshwater, mostly for the public-supply water use category. Almost 99 percent of the residents in Puerto Rico were served by public-supply water systems in 2005. One of the major challenges that water managers confront is the need to provide sufficient freshwater availability in the densely populated areas. Public-supply water is provided by the Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewers Authority (PRASA) and by non-PRASA systems. Non-PRASA systems refer to community-operated water systems (water systems that serve a rural or suburban housing area).

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Modflow-setup: Robust automation of groundwater model construction

In an age of both big data and increasing strain on water resources, sound management decisions often rely on numerical models. Numerical models provide a physics-based framework for assimilating and making sense of information that by itself only provides a limited description of the hydrologic system. Often, numerical models are the best option for quantifying even intuitively obvious connections between human activities and water resource impacts. However, despite many recent advances in model data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, the process of constructing numerical models remains laborious, expensive, and opaque, often precluding their use in decision making. Modflow-setup aims to provide rapid and consistent construction of MODFLOW groundwater models through robust and repeatable automation. Common model construction tasks are distilled in an open-source, online code base that is tested and extensible through collaborative version control. Input to Modflow-setup consists of a single configuration file that summarizes the workflow for building a model, including source data, construction options, and output packages. Source data providing model structure and parameter information including shapefiles, rasters, NetCDF files, tables, and other (geolocated) sources to MODFLOW models are read in and mapped to the model discretization, using Flopy and other general open-source scientific Python libraries. In a few minutes, an external array-based MODFLOW model amenable to parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification is produced. This paper describes the core functionality of Modflow-setup, including a worked example of a MODFLOW 6 model for evaluating pumping impacts to a lake in central Wisconsin, United States.

Wisconsin↗
USGS1981

Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS2013

A framework for quantitative assessment of impacts related to energy and mineral resource development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2023

The future of Indiana's water resources: A report from the Indiana climate change impacts assessment

Indiana’s water resources—in streams and lakes, in plants and soils, and underground—are a critical component of the state’s economy and well-being. Availability of this important resource is driven by precipitation and temperature patterns, both of which have shifted in recent decades, and is also highly influenced by how we manage natural and human systems. As local temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns shift, managing the multiple water needs of communities, natural systems, recreation, industry, and agriculture will become increasingly difficult. Ensuring that enough water is available in the right places and at the right times will require awareness of Indiana’s changing water resources and planning at regional and state levels. This report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) applies climate change projections for the state to explore how continued changes in Indiana’s climate are going to affect all aspects of water resources, including soil water, evaporation, runoff, snow cover, streamflow, drought, and flooding. The findings presented here are primarily based on the IN CCIA Water Resources Working Group technical report (Cherkauer et al., 2021) and the IN CCIA report Indiana’s Past and Future Climate (Widhalm et al., 2018).

Indiana↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

Great Lakes basin↗
USGS2009

Pore-water chemistry from the ICDP-USGS coer hole in the Chesapeake Bay impact structure--Implications for paleohydrology, microbial habitat, and water resources

We investigated the groundwater system of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure by analyzing the pore-water chemistry in cores taken from a 1766-m-deep drill hole 10 km north of Cape Charles, Virginia. Pore water was extracted using high-speed centrifuges from over 100 cores sampled from a 1300 m section of the drill hole. The pore-water samples were analyzed for major cations and anions, stable isotopes of water and sulfate, dissolved and total carbon, and bioavailable iron. The results reveal a broad transition between fresh and saline water from 100 to 500 m depth in the post-impact sediment section, and an underlying syn-impact section that is almost entirely filled with brine. The presence of brine in the lowermost post-impact section and the trend in the dissolved chloride with depth suggest a transport process dominated by molecular diffusion and slow, compaction-driven, upward flow. Major ion results indicate residual effects of diagenesis from heating, and a pre-impact origin for the brine. High levels of dissolved organic carbon (6-95 mg/L) and the distribution of electron acceptors indicate an environment that may be favorable for microbial activity throughout the drilled section. The concentration and extent of the brine is much greater than had previously been observed, suggesting its occurrence may be common in the inner crater. However, groundwater flow conditions in the structure may reduce the salt-water-intrusion hazard associated with the brine.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2007

Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: Quantity versus quality

Past land use changes have greatly impacted global water resources, with often opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Increases in rain‐fed cropland (460%) and pastureland (560%) during the past 300 years from forest and grasslands decreased evapotranspiration and increased recharge (two orders of magnitude) and streamflow (one order of magnitude). However, increased water quantity degraded water quality by mobilization of salts, salinization caused by shallow water tables, and fertilizer leaching into underlying aquifers that discharge to streams. Since the 1950s, irrigated agriculture has expanded globally by 174%, accounting for ∼90% of global freshwater consumption. Irrigation based on surface water reduced streamflow and raised water tables resulting in waterlogging in many areas (China, India, and United States). Marked increases in groundwater‐fed irrigation in the last few decades in these areas has lowered water tables (≤1 m/yr) and reduced streamflow. Degradation of water quality in irrigated areas has resulted from processes similar to those in rain‐fed agriculture: salt mobilization, salinization in waterlogged areas, and fertilizer leaching. Strategies for remediating water resource problems related to agriculture often have opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Long time lags (decades to centuries) between land use changes and system response (e.g., recharge, streamflow, and water quality), particularly in semiarid regions, mean that the full impact of land use changes has not been realized in many areas and remediation to reverse impacts will also take a long time. Future land use changes should consider potential impacts on water resources, particularly trade‐offs between water, salt, and nutrient balances, to develop sustainable water resources to meet human and ecosystem needs.

Water Resources Research↗