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Challenge theme 7: Information support for management of border security and environmental protection: Chapter 9 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Historically, international borders were located far from the major political and economic capitals of their countries and rarely received adequate planning or infrastructure development. Today, as a result of global economics and increased movement of goods between nations, border regions play a much greater role in commerce, tourism, and transportation. For example, Mexico is the second largest destination for United States exports (Woodrow Wilson Center Mexico Institute, 2009). The rapid population and economic growth along the United States–Mexican border, undocumented human border crossings, and the unique natural diversity of resources in the Borderlands present challenges for border security and environmental protection. Assessing risks and implementing sustainable growth policies to protect the environment and quality of life greatly increase in complexity when the issues cross an international border, where social services, environmental regulations, lifestyles, and cultural beliefs are unique for each country. Shared airsheds, water and biological resources, national security issues, and disaster management needs require an integrated binational approach to assess risks and develop binational management strategies.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Bright spots for inland fish and fisheries to guide future hydropower development

Hydropower production is one of the greatest threats to fluvial ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Now that we have entered the Anthropocene , there is an opportunity to reflect on what might constitute a ‘sustainable’ Anthropocene in the context of hydropower and riverine fish populations. Considering elements of existing practices that promote favorable social-ecological outcomes (i.e., ‘bright spots’) is timely given that there are plans to expand hydropower capacity in previously undammed rivers, intensify dam development in some of the world's largest river systems, and re-license existing facilities. We approach this from a pragmatic perspective: for the foreseeable future, hydropower will likely remain an important source of renewable electricity. To offer support for moving toward a more ‘sustainable’ Anthropocene, we provide syntheses of best practices during the siting, design, construction, operation, and compensation phases of hydropower development to minimize impacts on inland fish. For each phase, we offer positive examples (or what might be considered ‘bright spots’) pertaining to some of the approaches described within our syntheses, acknowledging that these projects may not be viewed as without ecological and (or) societal detriment by all stakeholders. Our findings underscore the importance of protecting critical habitat and free-flowing river reaches through careful site selection and basin-scale planning, infrastructure designs that minimize reservoir effects and facilitate safe passage of fish, construction of hydropower plants using best practices that minimize long-term damage, operating guidelines that mimic natural flow conditions, and compensation that is lasting, effective, inclusive, and locally relevant. Learning from these ‘bright spots’ may require engagement of diverse stakeholders, professionals, and governments at scales that extend well beyond a given site, river, or even basin. Indeed, environmental planning that integrates hydropower development into broader discussions of conserving regional biodiversity and ecosystem services will be of utmost importance.

Water Biology and Security↗

Fish diversity reduction and assemblage structure homogenization in lakes: A case study on unselective fishing in China

Unselective fishing involves activities that target the entire assemblage rather than specific fish species, size classes, or trophic levels. This common fishing approach has been in practice for decades in inland waters in China but its implications for biodiversity remain unclear. We addressed this issue by studying fish assemblages in freshwater lakes (five fishing lakes, one reference lake, and a total of 51 sampling sites) between pre- and post-fishing time-periods in Eastern China during 2017–2019. The effects of lake, fishing period, and their interactions on fish abundance, biomass, and diversity indices were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted to test for differences in fish assemblages among lakes and between fishing periods. After the implementation of fishing activities, significant reductions in fish species richness, abundance, biomass, and all three life-history strategies (opportunistic, equilibrium, and periodic) were observed in fishing lakes, whereas opposite trends were observed in the reference lake. Compositional similarity of fish assemblages among fishing lakes increased over the three-year monitoring period. Our results suggest that unselective fishing reduces fish diversity and homogenizes fish assemblage structure in lakes. These findings have important implications for protecting both biodiversity and fisheries in inland waters in China and are applicable to other countries or regions that rely on fish as a major food source.

Water Biology and Security↗

Science to support conservation action in a large river system: The Willamette River, Oregon, USA

Management and conservation efforts that support the recovery and protection of large rivers are daunting, reflecting the complexity of the challenge and extent of effort (in terms of policy, economic investment, and spatial extent) needed to afford measurable change. These large systems have generally experienced intensive development and regulation, compromising their capacity to respond to disturbances such as climate change or wildfire. Functionally, large river and basin management require insights gained from social, ecological, geophysical, and hydrological sciences. This multi-disciplinary perspective can unveil the integrated relationship between a river network's biotic community and seasonally variable environmental conditions that are often influenced by human activities. Large rivers and their basins are constantly changing due to anthropogenic influences and as climate modifies patterns of temperature and precipitation. Because of these factors, the state of knowledge must advance to address changing conditions. The Willamette River, in western Oregon, USA, is a prime example of a basin that has experienced significant degradation and investment in rehabilitation in recent decades. Innovative science has facilitated development of fine-scale, spatially extensive datasets and models that can generate targeted conservation and rehabilitation actions that are prioritized across the entire river network. This prioritization allows investment decisions to be driven by site-specific conditions while simultaneously considering potentials for ecological improvement. Here, we review hydrologic, geomorphic, ecologic, and social conditions in the Willamette River basin through time—including pre-settlement, river development, and contemporary periods—and offer a future vision for consideration. Currently, detailed information about fish populations and habitat, hydrologic conditions, geomorphology, water quality, and land use can be leveraged to make informed decisions about protection, rehabilitation, and development. The time is ripe for strategic management and goal development for the entire Willamette River, and these efforts can be informed by comprehensive science realized through established institutions (e.g., public agencies, non-profit watershed groups, Tribes, and universities) focused on conservation and management. The approaches to science and social-network creation that were pioneered in the Willamette River basin offer insights into the development of comprehensive conservation-based planning that could be implemented in other large river systems globally.

Oregon↗

Comparative assessment of STIC sensors, streamflow and rain gauges for quantifying river connectivity in intermittent systems

In intermittent stream systems, including those occurring in Texas, USA, the severity of low-flow conditions, duration of seasonal disconnection, and frequency of no-flow events have been amplified by drought. Documentation of these no-flow events is necessary to evaluate ecosystem health. However, many intermittent reaches remain un-gauged given that perennial river sec-tions are often prioritized for gauge placement. Our objectives were to 1) document stream flow using Stream Temperature, Intermittency, and Conductivity (STIC) loggers to determine the frequency and duration of no-flow events in intermittent tributaries of the Colorado River, Texas and 2) compare logger data to publicly available data from streamflow discharge and precipitation gauge networks to understand differences among these data types for drying event characterization. We use these comparisons to summarize benefits and limitations of the application of in-stream data loggers. STIC loggers were deployed at 19 sites, one in each pool and riffle habitat of a stream reach. STIC loggers recorded a measurement of relative conductance every six hours from June 2022 to March 2024, which was used to determine the presence or absence of flow connectivity in a reach. No-flow duration among intermittent reaches varied between 37 and 270 days across tributaries during an ongoing drought in the study area. Overall, logger data was more precise than discharge data for characterizing no-flow events or precipitation data when documenting presence of water in the stream channel due to runoff. Lack of discharge gauges in intermittent tributaries left large sections of stream reaches undocumented and resulted in mischaracterization of flow patterns. Drought severity across the tributaries did not follow longitudinal patterns that would be expected by the climatic precipitation gradient of the study area. More research is needed to determine if factors such as population size affect severity. Likewise, precipitation data did not correlate well with logger water presence data, lacking consideration for groundwater recharge, soil hydrophobicity, and surface compaction. This study shows that to monitor no-flow events, detailed spatial datasets are necessary and that STIC loggers are useful tools that provide data to fill spatial information gaps and facilitate more accurate flow characterization and water presence data in intermittent systems.

Texas↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center—Sound science to serve the American Southwest

Home to Arches, Grand Canyon, and Saguaro National Parks, among others, the American Southwest’s landscapes are as fragile as they are iconic. Energy development, water security, and grassland restoration are important to the region as it experiences population growth and increased demand for resources. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Biological Science Center provides sound scientific information to help identify effective management strategies for the Southwest’s abundant natural resources and vast public lands. Research is focused on two key areas—dryland ecology and river science.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

Sustainable growth in America's heartland: 3-D geologic maps as the foundation

The Central Great Lakes States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio constitute one of the most productive and economically important regions in the country—America’s heartland. The agriculture, industry, business, recreation, and ecology of these States are based on a common geologic heritage. During the last 1.8 million years, glaciers repeatedly advanced and retreated across the region, leaving behind a thick, complex blanket of intermixed layers of mud, clay, silt, sand, and gravel. These glacial deposits contain bountiful resources—rich soils; plentiful ground water; minerals for construction; land for agriculture, development, recreation, and wildlife habitat; and lakes and rivers for recreation and wildlife habitat. These materials are also subject to natural hazards—floods, erosion, landslides, radon, and earthquakes—and manmade problems such as soil, sediment, and water contamination from point and nonpoint sources. Resulting land degradation has impaired and restricted human use and enjoyment of the land and caused degradation and loss of wildlife habitat. The continued economic growth of the region and the security of its population and environment are related to fundamental issues involving land, water, mineral, and biological resources. Addressing the conflicting demands on these resources without adequate information can result in land-use decisions that are not compatible with sustainable development and a continued high quality of life for future generations. Decisionmakers need knowledge of the glacial deposits— their characteristics, three-dimensional (3-D) distribution, and thickness. To provide this knowledge, a coalition of State and Federal Geological Surveys (Illinois State Geological Survey, Indiana Geological Survey, Michigan Geological Survey Division, Ohio Division of Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey) has formed to conduct the necessary studies in these four States to depict the 3-D nature of these glacial and related deposits and to interpret these data in cooperation with the user community for specific societal needs.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

Web-Based Geospatial Tools to Address Hazard Mitigation, Natural Resource Management, and Other Societal Issues

Federal, State, and local government agencies in the United States face a broad range of issues on a daily basis. Among these are natural hazard mitigation, homeland security, emergency response, economic and community development, water supply, and health and safety services. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) helps decision makers address these issues by providing natural hazard assessments, information on energy, mineral, water and biological resources, maps, and other geospatial information. Increasingly, decision makers at all levels are challenged not by the lack of information, but by the absence of effective tools to synthesize the large volume of data available, and to utilize the data to frame policy options in a straightforward and understandable manner. While geographic information system (GIS) technology has been widely applied to this end, systems with the necessary analytical power have been usable only by trained operators. The USGS is addressing the need for more accessible, manageable data tools by developing a suite of Web-based geospatial applications that will incorporate USGS and cooperating partner data into the decision making process for a variety of critical issues. Examples of Web-based geospatial tools being used to address societal issues follow.

Fact Sheet↗

Cascadia Margin cold seeps: Subduction zone fluids, gas hydrates, and chemosynthetic habitats

Priority Geographic Area: The outer continental shelf and upper continental slope from Canada/U.S. border offshore Washington State to the Mendocino Fracture Zone (Northern California), entirely within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), from the outermost shelf to at least 2000 m water depth (Figure 1). Description of Priority Area: Since 2015, over a thousand water column gas plumes originating at seafloor gas seeps have been discovered landward of the Cascadia deformation front (e.g., Embley et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2015, 2019; Merle and Embley, 2016; NA-95 Cruise Report, 2018; Riedel et al., 2018), adding to those that had long been known on Hydrate Ridge (e.g., Heeschen et al., 2003; Tréhu et al., 2004). The recently-discovered seeps stretch from offshore Vancouver Island to the Mendocino Fracture Zone and from the outer shelf to ~2000 m water depth, occurring both landward and seaward of the nominal limit for gas hydrate stability zone on the upper continental slope (Figure 1). Hundreds of seeps likely remain undiscovered. Water column imaging is incomplete both within the target geographic area and farther seaward, between the 2000 m isobath and the deformation front, which is the subject of an imaging study described in a white paper by Watt et al. The recently-discovered Cascadia Margin cold seeps partially overlap an important active margin gas hydrate province (Spence et al., 2001; Tréhu et al., 2003, 2004), as well as an area where sediments on the North American plate are folded and faulted and affected by fluids generated in the subduction complex beneath the Cascadia forearc (e.g., Saffer and Tobin, 2011). Several Ocean Drilling Program expeditions have focused on hydrate systems offshore Vancouver and Oregon (e.g., Riedel et al., 2009; Tréhu et al., 2004) and on the connection between the shallow and deep hydrogeologic systems. Cabled observatories now continuously monitor physical, chemical, and venting processes on south Hydrate Ridge (OOI; e.g., Philip et al., 2016a) and offshore Vancouver Island (NEPTUNE; e.g. Römer et al., 2016). Outside of these well-studied gas hydrate areas, a subset of the recently-discovered Cascadia seeps, including some that we visited with R/V Falkor in 2019 (e.g., https://schmidtocean.org/cruise/methane-seeps-at-edge-of-hydrate-stability/), also likely emit methane associated with shallow subseafloor gas hydrate systems. Other seeps are delivering not only methane, but also deep-derived gases (Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020) to the seafloor. Many Cascadia Margin seeps have also been recognized at water depths too shallow (e.g., 175 m) to be connected to gas hydrate dynamics. These seeps are postulated to be emitting gas and fluids that originated deep in accretionary wedge before migrating up normal faults generated during forearc extension associated with large earthquakes (Johnson et al., 2019). Only a small fraction of the recently discovered U.S. Cascadia Margin water column gas plumes has so far been verified by ROVs (Hercules from E/V Nautilus in 2016 and 2018; SuBastian from R/V Falkor in 2018 and 2019) to correspond to seafloor seeps. Careful scientific mapping, investigation, and sampling at the seeps have also been limited (e.g., Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020; Merle and Embley, 2016; Seabrook et al., 2018; Greinert et al. 2019). This white paper focuses on expanding exploration of already-identified U.S. Cascadia Margin cold seeps through a multipronged and multidisciplinary discovery program that could be accomplished with a variety of NOAA assets. The goals of the proposed exploration activities are to develop high-resolution maps of seep fields from deep ocean vehicles; to verify (and sample) seafloor gas emissions at the locations of water column plumes for compositional and isotopic studies; to map, sample, and conduct analyses on chemosynthetic communities and deep-sea coral habitats near seep sites to document species distributions and habitats as a function of depth and latitude along the margin; to collect seep geologic samples that can constrain the timing of methane emissions through geochronology; and to record environmental data (e.g., CTD) near the seafloor and in the water column above the seeps. Seafloor mapping using shipboard systems (multibeam/backscatter) would be needed to characterize seafloor features near seep sites. Water column imaging (EK60/80 and/or multibeam WCD data) conducted before and after seafloor explorations would capture active methane plumes and constrain temporal variations in seep emissions (e.g., Kannberg et al., 2013; Philip et al., 2016a, 2016b), which are known to vary on time scales as rapid as tidal cycles on this margin (e.g., Römer et al., 2016). What are the characterization and data needs in this area? Check all that apply: __x_ Biology, Geology, Physical Oceanography, Chemistry ___ Marine Archaeology ___ Other Provide a list or brief description of the data needed within this area, from your perspective: 1. Water column backscatter to image active gas plumes 2. High-resolution multibeam bathymetry, seafloor backscatter, and shallow sub-bottom imaging 3. Visual characterization and ground truthing of potential seeps, including high-resolution mapping and photography from near-seafloor vehicles; collection of seep-associated species, corals, sediments, authigenic carbonates, gases, and seawater Describe relevance to national security, conservation, and/or the economy: The Cascadia margin seeps provide significant ecosystem services, including habitat for commercially important fishes and support for diversity along the continental margin. Methane seeps are also biological hotspots for krill, plankton, and crustaceans, which in turn sustain higher trophic levels (e.g., whales). Methane-derived authigenic carbonates serve as a hard substrate for deep-sea corals and sponges on millennial time scales. The studies proposed here will elucidate the relationship among seep environments, deep-sea corals, sponges, fisheries, and other organisms and provide new insight into subduction zone and hydrate-associated fluids in this important seismogenic zone. The studies address fishery management concerns and inform future conservation of sensitive species (e.g., deep-sea corals) and benthic habitats. From your perspective, what makes this area unique? The Cascadia Margin seeps are a critical component of the leaky margin that stretches from Baja California to the Aleutian Arc along the Pacific coastline of North America. Cold seeps have been intensely studied on the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Atlantic passive margins with a focus on chemosynthetic communities, deep-sea corals, and leakage of microbially-generated and/or thermogenic hydrocarbons; however, the recently-discovered Cascadia Margin seeps, as well as active margin seep systems in general, remain more poorly characterized. Such seeps not only contribute to the ocean carbon cycle (e.g., Pohlman et al., 2011), thereby fueling the base of the food chain in these settings, but also emit subduction zone fluids that provide clues about processes within the seismogenic zone and the accretionary complex. The Cascadia seeps area allows both biological (e.g., benthic habitats, coral distributions) and physical processes (e.g., generation of subduction zone fluids) to be studied along both depth (perpendicular to the deformation front) and latitudinal gradients.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Simulation of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality in Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado, for 1985 through 1987 and 1999 through 2002

Pueblo Reservoir is west of Pueblo, Colorado, and is an important water resource for southeastern Colorado. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. In anticipation of increased population growth, the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West have proposed building a pipeline that would be capable of conveying 78 million gallons of raw water per day (240 acre-feet) from Pueblo Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation, developed, calibrated, and verified a hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Pueblo Reservoir to describe the hydrologic, chemical, and biological processes in Pueblo Reservoir that can be used to assess environmental effects in the reservoir. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics in Pueblo Reservoir were simulated using a laterally averaged, two-dimensional model that was calibrated using data collected from October 1985 through September 1987. The Pueblo Reservoir model was calibrated based on vertical profiles of water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration, and water-quality constituent concentrations collected in the epilimnion and hypolimnion at four sites in the reservoir. The calibrated model was verified with data from October 1999 through September 2002, which included a relatively wet year (water year 2000), an average year (water year 2001), and a dry year (water year 2002). Simulated water temperatures compared well to measured water temperatures in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. Spatially, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the downstream part of the reservoir than in the upstream part of the reservoir. Differences between simulated and measured water temperatures also varied through time. Simulated water temperatures were slightly less than measured water temperatures from March to May 1986 and 1987, and slightly greater than measured data in August and September 1987. Relative to the calibration period, simulated water temperatures during the verification period did not compare as well to measured water temperatures. In general, simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations for the calibration period compared well to measured concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir. Spatially, simulated concentrations deviated more from the measured values at the downstream part of the reservoir than at other locations in the reservoir. Overall, the absolute mean error ranged from 1.05 (site 1B) to 1.42 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.12 (site 1B) to 1.67 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated dissolved oxygen in the verification period compared better to the measured concentrations than in the calibration period. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.91 (site 5C) to 1.28 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.03 (site 5C) to 1.46 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated total dissolved solids generally were less than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. The largest differences between simulated and measured total dissolved solids were observed at the most downstream sites in Pueblo Reservoir during the second year of the calibration period. Total dissolved-solids data were not available from reservoir sites during the verification period, so in-reservoir specific-conductance data were compared to simulated total dissolved solids. Simulated total dissolved solids followed the same patterns through time as the measured specific conductance data during the verification period. Simulated total nitrogen concentrations compared relatively well to measured concentrations in the Pueblo Reservoir model. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.21 (site 1B) to 0.27 milligram per liter as nitrogen (sites 3B and 7

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Preserving and increasing water resources—Natural infrastructure in dryland streams in Baja California Sur, Mexico

The Los Planes watershed of Baja California Sur, Mexico, and its underlying aquifer are experiencing groundwater decline owing to low average annual rainfall (28.1 centimeters per year) and rising water demand from population growth and agricultural activities. This decline in water availability can lead to desertification—a process that changes arable land to desert by degrading soil and vegetation—and can pose serious challenges to livelihoods that depend on the land. To address these issues, a ranch in the Los Planes watershed has installed many natural infrastructures in dryland streams (NIDS) in channels for soil and water conservation. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began working with regional researchers and land managers to investigate the effects of NIDS on natural biological, geochemical, and physical processes and determine the efficacy of NIDS for water augmentation in the Los Planes watershed. The USGS also worked with local academic institutions and nonprofit organizations to create public educational opportunities focused on the area’s hydrogeology. These and other collaborative efforts with the U.S. Water Partnership and Innovaciones Alumbra aim at enhancing water resources in the Baja California Sur region and promoting water security and safeguarding community well-being. Resume La cuenca de Los Planes, ubicada en Baja California Sur, México, y su acuífero subyacente, están sufriendo una disminución de las aguas subterráneas debido a la baja precipitación media anual (28.1 centímetros por año) y la alta demanda de agua por parte de una población creciente y la actividad agrícola. Esta disminución de la disponibilidad de agua puede conducir a la desertificación—un proceso que por medio de la degradación del suelo y la vegetación convierte a la tierra cultivable en desierto—representando un serio desafío para los medios de vida de las personas. Para abordar estos problemas, un rancho en la cuenca de Los Planes ha instalado numerosas obras de Infraestructura Natural en Arroyos de Tierras Áridas (INATS) para conservación del suelo y del agua. En 2022, el Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos (USGS, por sus siglas en inglés) comenzó a trabajar con investigadores regionales y gestores de tierras para estudiar los efectos de INATS en los procesos biológicos, geoquímicos y físicos, y determinar su eficacia en el aumento de los recursos hídricos en la cuenca de Los Planes. El USGS se ha asociado con instituciones académicas y organizaciones locales sin fines de lucro para crear oportunidades educativas públicas centradas en la hidrogeología de la zona. Estos y otros esfuerzos colaborativos con la Asociación del Agua de Estados Unidos (U.S. Water Partnership) e Innovaciones Alumbra, tienen como objetivo mejorar el uso de los recursos hídricos en la región de Baja California Sur, promover la seguridad hídrica y proteger el bienestar de la comunidad.

Baja California Sur↗

Temporal change in biological community structure in the Fountain Creek basin, Colorado, 2001-2008

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, began a study to better understand the relations between environmental characteristics and biological communities in the Fountain Creek basin in order to aide water-resource management and guide future monitoring activities. To accomplish this task, environmental (streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) and biological (fish and macroinvertebrate) data were collected annually at 24 sites over a 6- or 8-year period (fish, 2003 to 2008; macroinvertebrates, 2001 to 2008). For this report, these data were first analyzed to determine the presence of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure among years using nonparametric multivariate statistics. Where temporal change in the biological communities was found, these data were further analyzed using additional nonparametric multivariate techniques to determine which subset of selected streamflow, habitat, or water-chemistry variables best described site-specific changes in community structure relative to a gradient of urbanization. This study identified significant directional patterns of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure at 15 of 24 sites in the Fountain Creek basin. At four of these sites, changes in environmental variables were significantly correlated with the concurrent temporal change identified in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure (Monument Creek above Woodmen Road at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Monument Creek at Bijou Street at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Bear Creek near Colorado Springs, Colo.; Fountain Creek at Security, Colo.). Combinations of environmental variables describing directional temporal change in the biota appeared to be site specific as no single variable dominated the results; however, substrate composition variables (percent substrate composition composed of sand, gravel, or cobble) collectively were present in 80 percent of the environmental variable subsets that were significantly correlated with temporal change in the macroinvertebrate and fish community structure. Other important environmental variables related to temporal change in the biological community structure included those describing channel form (streambank height) and streamflow (normalized annual mean daily flow, high flood-pulse count). Site-specific results from this study were derived from a relatively small number of observations (6 or 8 years of data); therefore, additional years of data may reveal other sites with temporal change in biological community structure, or could define stronger and more consistent linkages between environmental variables and observed temporal change. Likewise current variable subsets could become weaker. Nonetheless, there were several sites where temporal change was detected in this study that could not be explained by the available environmental variables studied herein. Modification of current data-collection activities may be necessary to better understand site-specific temporal relations between biological communities and environmental variables.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey 21st-Century science strategy 2020–2030

Today’s Earth system challenges are far more complex and urgent than those that existed in 1879 when the USGS was established. Society’s greatest challenges are directly or indirectly linked to major areas of USGS science. Increased pressures on natural resources continue with consequences for national security, food and water availability, natural disasters, human health, and biodiversity loss. As we look forward 10, 20, and 30 years, our mission will be more important than ever before. A broad but coherent view is required for stewardship of the Nation’s land, water, mineral, energy, and ecosystem resources, which involves complex tradeoffs among multiple, often competing objectives. Increasingly, resource managers and decision makers need “the whole USGS”: integrated multidisciplinary Earth and biological science data, geospatial tools, predictive models, decision-support tools, and the expertise to interpret them. This Science Strategy defines a vision and mission for how we will continue to evolve USGS Science to address these Earth system challenges.

Circular↗

Flood pulsing in the Sudd wetland: analysis of seasonal variations in 2 inundation and evapotranspiration in Southern Sudan

Located on the Bahr el Jebel in South Sudan, the Sudd is one of the largest floodplain wetlands in the world. Seasonal inundation drives the hydrologic, geomorphological, and ecological processes, and the annual flood pulse is essential to the functioning of the Sudd. Despite the importance of the flood pulse, various hydrological interventions are planned upstream of the Sudd to increase economic benefits and food security. These will not be without consequences, in particular for wetlands where the biological productivity, biodiversity, and human livelihoods are dependent on the flood pulse and both the costs and benefits need to be carefully evaluated. Many African countries still lack regional baseline information on the temporal extent, distribution, and characteristics of wetlands, making it hard to assess the consequences of development interventions. Because of political instability in Sudan and the inaccessible nature of the Sudd, recent measurements of flooding and seasonal dynamics are inadequate. Analyses of multitemporal and multisensor remote sensing datasets are presented in this paper, in order to investigate and characterize flood pulsing within the Sudd wetland over a 12-month period. Wetland area has been mapped along with dominant components of open water and flooded vegetation at five time periods over a single year. The total area of flooding (both rain and river fed) over the 12 months was 41 334 km2, with 9176 km2 of this constituting the permanent wetland. Mean annual total evaporation is shown to be higher and with narrower distribution of values from areas of open water (1718 mm) than from flooded vegetation (1641 mm). Although the exact figures require validation against ground-based measurements, the results highlight the relative differences in inundation patterns and evaporation across the Sudd.

Earth Interactions↗

A river system to watch: documenting the effects of saltcedar ( Tamarix spp.) biocontrol in the Virgin River valley

Throughout riparian areas of the southwestern United States, non-native saltcedar (also known as tamarisk; Tamarix spp.) can form dense, monotypic stands and is often reported to have detrimental effects on native plants and habitat quality (Everitt 1980; Shafroth et al. 2005). Natural resource managers of these riparian areas spend considerable time and resources controlling saltcedar using a variety of techniques, including chemical (Duncan and McDaniel 1998), mechanical, and burning methods (Shafroth et al. 2005). Approximately one billion dollars are spent each year on river restoration projects nationally (Bernhardt et al. 2005), and a majority of these projects focus on invasive species control in the Southwest (Follstad Shah et al. 2007). A technique that has drawn much attention is the use of the saltcedar leaf beetle ( Diorhabda spp.), a specialist herbivore, as biological control of saltcedar (Lewis et al. 2003). Research testing was conducted with beetles housed in secure enclosures in six states in 1998 and 1999 (Dudley et al. 2001), followed by open release at some of those sites starting in 2001 (DeLoach et al. 2004). By 2005, full-scale saltcedar biocontrol was implemented in 13 states, led by the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), the agency that oversees biological control programs, and with the participation and support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Despite the widespread application of Diorhabda , however, only limited research has quantified the consequences (benefits and costs) on biotic communities and ecosystem services. Alterations to riparian areas caused by various non-native species control activities have the potential to affect a variety of habitat types used by wildlife (Bateman et al. 2008a); processes like water availability, fluvial deposition, and erosion; and the establishment of other non-native species (Carruthers and D'Antonio 2005, Shafroth et al. 2005, DeLoach et al. 2006). Similarly, biocontrol is expected to modify riparian ecosystems, and it is imperative to document and evaluate both the environmental benefits and the potential costs of this tamarisk management method.

Virgin River↗

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin↗

The Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program: Progress and immediate challenges

Adaptive management emerged as an important resource management strategy for major river systems in the United States (US) in the early 1990s. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (‘the Program’) was formally established in 1997 to fulfill a statutory requirement in the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act (GCPA). The GCPA aimed to improve natural resource conditions in the Colorado River corridor in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona that were affected by the Glen Canyon dam. The Program achieves this by using science and a variety of stakeholder perspectives to inform decisions about dam operations. Since the Program started the ecosystem is now much better understood and several biological and physical improvements have been achieved. These improvements include: (i) an estimated 50% increase in the adult population of endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) between 2001 and 2008, following previous decline; (ii) a 90% decrease in non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), which are known to compete with and prey on native fish, as a result of removal experiments; and (iii) the widespread reappearance of sandbars in response to an experimental high-flow release of dam water in March 2008.Although substantial progress has been made, the Program faces several immediate challenges. These include: (i) defining specific, measurable objectives and desired future conditions for important natural, cultural and recreational attributes to inform science and management decisions; (ii) implementing structural and operational changes to improve collaboration among stakeholders; (iii) establishing a long-term experimental programme and management plan; and (iv) securing long-term funding for monitoring programmes to assess ecosystem and other responses to management actions. Addressing these challenges and building on recent progress will require strong and consistent leadership from the US Department of the Interior officials who guide the Program.

Arizona↗

Alaska

Alaska is the largest state in the Nation, almost one-fifth the size of the combined lower 48 United States, and is rich in natural capital resources. Alaska is often identified as being on the front lines of climate change since it is warming faster than any other state and faces a myriad of issues associated with a changing climate. The cost of infrastructure damage from a warming climate is projected to be very large, potentially ranging from $110 to $270 million per year, assuming timely repair and maintenance. Although climate change does and will continue to dramatically transform the climate and environment of the Arctic, proactive adaptation in Alaska has the potential to reduce costs associated with these impacts. This includes the dissemination of several tools, such as guidebooks to support adaptation planning, some of which focus on Indigenous communities. While many opportunities exist with a changing climate, economic prospects are not well captured in the literature at this time. As the climate continues to warm, there is likely to be a nearly sea ice-free Arctic during the summer by mid-century. Ocean acidification is an emerging global problem that will intensify with continued carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and negatively affects organisms. Climate change will likely affect management actions and economic drivers, including fisheries, in complex ways. The use of multiple alternative models to appropriately characterize uncertainty in future fisheries biomass trajectories and harvests could help manage these challenges. As temperature and precipitation increase across the Alaska landscape, physical and biological changes are also occurring throughout Alaska’s terrestrial ecosystems. Degradation of permafrost is expected to continue, with associated impacts to infrastructure, river and stream discharge, water quality, and fish and wildlife habitat. Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to exacerbate flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat in the future and in some cases requiring entire communities or portions of communities to relocate to safer terrain. The influence of climate change on human health in Alaska can be traced to three sources: direct exposures, indirect effects, and social or psychological disruption. Each of these will have different manifestations for Alaskans when compared to residents elsewhere in the United States. Climate change exerts indirect effects on human health in Alaska through changes to water, air, and soil and through ecosystem changes affecting disease ecology and food security, especially in rural communities. Alaska’s rural communities are predominantly inhabited by Indigenous peoples who may be disproportionately vulnerable to socioeconomic and environmental change; however, they also have rich cultural traditions of resilience and adaptation. The impacts of climate change will likely affect all aspects of Alaska Native societies, from nutrition, infrastructure, economics, and health consequences to language, education, and the communities themselves. The profound and diverse climate-driven changes in Alaska’s physical environment and ecosystems generate economic impacts through their effects on environmental services. These services include positive benefits directly from ecosystems (for example, food, water, and other resources), as well as services provided directly from the physical environment (for example, temperature moderation, stable ground for supporting infrastructure, and smooth surface for overland transportation). Some of these effects are relatively assured and in some cases are already occurring. Other impacts are highly uncertain, due to their dependence on the structure of global and regional economies and future human alterations to the environment decades into the future, but they could be large. In Alaska, a range of adaptations to changing climate and related environmental conditions are underway and others have been proposed as potential actions, including measures to reduce vulnerability and risk, as well as more systemic institutional transformation.

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