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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2020

Ecology of urban climates: The need for landscape biophysics in cities

In this chapter we will review and evaluate the climatic and ecological parallels between urbanization and climate change, with an emphasis on temperature and its effects on terrestrial ectotherms, a group of organisms thought to be particularly sensitive to climate change. We will summarize patterns of urban warming and how they relate to global climate change projections, then discuss the potential strengths and limitations of urban climates as a source of insight into biotic responses to climate change and highlight future research directions. Future work will benefit from explicit consideration of the mechanisms by which urbanization and urban warming drive ectotherms’ body temperatures and activity periods. Urban ecosystems may provide a valuable first approximation of the dramatic effects of warming on certain terrestrial systems, and continued advances in urban thermal biology will promote a mechanistic understanding of how organisms use, respond to, and adapt to the unique thermal landscapes of cities.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗
USGS2017

Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.

California↗
USGS2012

A remote sensing approach for estimating the location and rate of urban irrigation in semi-arid climates

Urban irrigation is an important component of the hydrologic cycle in many areas of the arid and semiarid western United States. This paper describes a new approach that uses readily available datasets to estimate the location and rate of urban irrigation. The approach provides a repeatable methodology at 1/3 km 2 resolution across a large urbanized area (500 km 2 ). For this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, air photos, climatic records, and a land-use map were used to: (1) identify the fraction of irrigated landscaping in urban areas, and (2) estimate the monthly rate of irrigation being applied to those areas. The area chosen for this study was the San Fernando Valley in Southern California. Identifying irrigated areas involved the use of 29 satellite images, air photos, and a land-use map. The fraction of a pixel that consists of irrigated landscaping (F irr ) was estimated using a linear-mixture model of two land-cover endmembers (selected pixels within a satellite image that represent a targeted land-cover). The two endmembers were impervious and fully-irrigated landscaping. In the San Fernando Valley, we used airport buildings, runways, and pavement to represent the impervious endmember; golf courses and parks were used to represent the fully irrigated endmember. The average F irr using all 29 satellite scenes was 44%. F irr calculated from hand-digitizing using air photos for 13 randomly selected single-family-residential neighborhoods showed similar results (42%). Estimating the rate of irrigation required identification of a third endmember: areas that consisted of urban vegetation but were not irrigated. This "nonirrigated" endmember was used to compute a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) surplus, defined as the difference between the NDVI signals of the irrigated and nonirrigated endmembers. The NDVI signals from irrigated areas remains relatively constant throughout the year, whereas the signal from nonirrigated areas rises and falls seasonally due to precipitation. The areas between airport runways were chosen to represent the nonirrigated endmember. Water-delivery records from 65 spatially-distributed single-family neighborhoods, consisting of nearly 1800 homes, were correlated with the NDVI surplus. The results show a strong exponential correlation ( r 2 = 0.94). In the absence of water-delivery records, which can be difficult to obtain, a surrogate was identified: the landscape evapotranspiration rate (ET L ). ET L was used to scale NDVI surplus (which is dimensionless) to irrigation rates using an exponential scaling function. The monthly irrigation rates calculated from satellite and climatic data compared well with irrigation rates calculated from actual water-delivery data using a paired Wilcoxan signed-rank test ( p = 0.0063). Identification of F irr at the pixel scale, along with identification of the irrigation rate for a fully-irrigated pixel, allows for mapping of urban irrigation over large areas. Maps showing the location and rate of monthly irrigation for the San Fernando study area were computed for January and August 1997.

California↗
USGS2026

Climate-adaptive urban planning: Quantitative assessment of drought impacts and practical strategies for climate-resilient urban green spaces

Urban green spaces (UGSs) are vital for enhancing a city’s resilience and livability; however, their functionality is increasingly jeopardized by drought, particularly in water-scarce regions. This study evaluates drought impact on UGSs in Metropolitan Adelaide, Australia, a representative semi-arid urban system, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data spanning 2000–2020. Vegetation dynamics were analyzed through Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), standardized anomaly assessment, lagged Pearson correlation, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Mann–Kendall trend analysis. To isolate climatically sensitive signals, 29 urban lawn patches were examined separately from mixed urban canopy, given their shallow root systems and direct dependence on surface moisture. NDVI declined by approximately 0.09 units during the Millennium Drought (2001–2009), with summer greenness deficits reaching 24% below the 20-year benchmark. Temperature was the dominant driver of lawn NDVI variability (r = −0.863, R 2 = 74.5%), substantially exceeding the effect of rainfall (r = 0.156, R 2 = 2.4%). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles modulated vegetation responses, with La Niña years supporting recovery and El Niño years amplifying decline. Post-drought recovery remained incomplete, with NDVI deficits of 8–20% persisting through 2020; full recovery was observed only in 2017, coinciding with the highest recorded summer rainfall. No significant directional trend was detected over the full study period (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.005, p = 0.908). These findings demonstrate that heat, rather than water limitation alone, is the primary driver of vegetation stress in urban systems, highlighting the benefits of integrated management strategies that address both warming and moisture deficits to sustain urban green infrastructure under future climate conditions. We introduce the concept of “urban greenery drought,” referring to a form of vegetation stress in managed urban landscapes where greenness is reduced primarily by elevated temperature and atmospheric demand despite water availability.

Adelaide↗
USGS2009

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2011

Hydrologic effects of urbanization and climate change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface- runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

Georgia↗
USGS2015

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2025

The joint effect of changes in urbanization and climate on trends in floods: A comparison of panel and single-station quantile regression approaches

Estimates of annual maximum (peak) flow quantiles are needed for basins undergoing changes in both urbanization and climate. Most previous work on the effect of urbanization on peak flows has considered urbanization alone and only the spatial variation in flood quantiles or its mean temporal effect, and most work on the effect of nonstationarity in climate has focused on single-station analyses, which give uncertain results for extreme quantiles. To address these gaps, three approaches to the statistical estimation of the joint effects of changes in impervious cover and climate on the estimation of peak-flow quantiles were compared: single-station quantile regression; a fixed effect panel-quantile regression (pQR) method using a location (mean) shift to homogenize the panel; and a location-scale panel regression model (pQRmom), which accounts for both scale (variance) and location effects. The different approaches were applied to a dataset consisting of instantaneous annual peak flows from 127 minimally nested basins in the midwestern United States with at least 4 % change in imperviousness. The annual maximum daily discharge from a water-balance model was selected as the primary climate predictor; in addition, to provide a comparison of climate predictors, precipitation was also considered. The coefficients from single-station regressions were usually sufficiently certain to determine the effects of climate variation but usually too uncertain to estimate the effects of urbanization. The panel-quantile regression approaches give much more certain results, but their estimates of quantile dependence differ: although both indicate urbanization effects decreasing with decreasing annual exceedance probability (AEP), the pQRmom urbanization coefficients are insignificantly different from zero for AEPs less than 0.10, whereas the pQR coefficients remain positive and are significant except for AEP = 0.01, the smallest AEP value considered. Although the location-scale structure of the pQRmom approach has less flexible quantile dependence than the pQR approach, the pQRmom approach has somewhat lower overall error, and it is found that by subsetting the dataset to homogenize the scale effects, the pQR and pQRmom results become similar, indicating the insignificant urbanization coefficients for small AEPs of the pQRmom results are likely correct for the study dataset.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minne↗
USGS2023

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2008

Interaction between urbanization and climate variability amplifies watershed nitrate export in Maryland

We investigated regional effects of urbanization and land use change on nitrate concentrations in approximately 1,000 small streams in Maryland during record drought and wet years in 2001-2003. We also investigated changes in nitrate-N export during the same time period in 8 intensively monitored small watersheds across an urbanization gradient in Baltimore, Maryland. Nitrate-N concentrations in Maryland were greatest in agricultural streams, urban streams, and forest streams respectively. During the period of record drought and wet years, nitrate-N exports in Baltimore showed substantial variation in 6 suburban/urban streams (2.9-15.3 kg/ha/y), 1 agricultural stream (3.4-38.9 kg/ha/y), and 1 forest stream (0.03-0.2 kg/ ha/y). Interannual variability was similar for small Baltimore streams and nearby well-monitored tributaries and coincided with record hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Discharge-weighted mean annual nitrate concentrations showed a variable tendency to decrease/increase with changes in annual runoff, although total N export generally increased with annual runoff. N retention in small Baltimore watersheds during the 2002 drought was 85%, 99%, and 94% for suburban, forest, and agricultural watersheds, respectively, and declined to 35%, 91%, and 41% during the wet year of 2003. Our results suggest that urban land use change can increase the vulnerability of ecosystem nitrogen retention functions to climatic variability. Further work is necessary to characterize patterns of nitrate-N export and retention in small urbanizing watersheds under varying climatic conditions to improve future forecasting and watershed scale restoration efforts aimed at improving nitrate-N retention. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2010

Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change

Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted.

California↗
USGS2007

Water level fluctuations in an urban pond: Climatic or anthropogenic impact?

In 1996, the Illinois State Geological Survey began an investigation of fluctuating water levels in a pond in Cary, Illinois. The cause of the fluctuations appeared to be ground water discharge into a storm sewer recently installed by the Illinois Department of Transportation. However, analysis of climatic data provided an equally likely explanation of the fluctuations. Distinguishing the effect of climatic variations from the effect of the storm sewer was hampered by the lack of antecedent ground water and surface water data. In similar settings, it is recommended that ground water and surface water data be collected prior to initiating any infrastructure improvements.

Illinois↗
USGS2015

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CV wh ) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CV wh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

California↗
USGS1980

Relationships between aerodynamic roughness and land use and land cover in Baltimore, Maryland

Urbanization changes the radiative, thermal, hydrologic, and aerodynamic properties of the Earth's surface. Knowledge of these surface characteristics, therefore, is essential to urban climate analysis. Aerodynamic or surface roughness of urban areas is not well documented, however, because of practical constraints in measuring the wind profile in the presence of large buildings. Using an empirical method designed by Lettau, and an analysis of variance of surface roughness values calculated for 324 samples averaging 0.8 hectare (ha) of land use and land cover sample in Baltimore, Md., a strong statistical relation was found between aerodynamic roughness and urban land use and land cover types. Assessment of three land use and land cover systems indicates that some of these types have significantly different surface roughness characteristics. The tests further indicate that statistically significant differences exist in estimated surface roughness values when categories (classes) from different land use and land cover classification systems are used as surrogates. A Level III extension of the U.S. Geological Survey Level II land use and land cover classification system provided the most reliable results. An evaluation of the physical association between the aerodynamic properties of land use and land cover and the surface climate by numerical simulation of the surface energy balance indicates that changes in surface roughness within the range of values typical of the Level III categories induce important changes in the surface climate.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2013

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.

California↗
USGS2015

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Report↗
USGS2023

Evaluating drivers of hydrology, water quality, and benthic macroinvertebrates in streams of Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007–18

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with Fairfax County, Virginia, to establish a long-term water-resources monitoring program to evaluate the hydrology, water quality, and ecology of Fairfax County streams and the watershed-scale effects of management practices. Fairfax County uses a variety of management practices, policies, and programs to protect and restore its water resources, but the effects of such strategies are not well understood. This report used streamflow, water-quality, and ecological monitoring data collected from 20 Fairfax County watersheds from 2007 through 2018 to assess the effects of management practices, landscape factors, and climatic conditions on observed nutrient, sediment, salinity, and benthic-macroinvertebrate community responses. Urbanization, climatic variability, and an increase in management practices occurred within Fairfax County during the study period. Impervious cover, housing units, wastewater infrastructure, and (or) stormwater infrastructure increased in most study watersheds. Climatic conditions varied among study years; countywide estimates of average-annual air temperature differed by about 3 degrees Celsius, and total precipitation ranged from about 34 to 63 inches per year. The effects of the management practices, implemented to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and (or) sediment loads, are considered in this study. These management practices primarily consist of stormwater retrofits and stream restorations; however, stream restorations account for most of the financial investment and expected load reductions. Management practices were implemented in half of the study watersheds, and most practices were installed and reductions credited late in the study period. Changes in hydrologic response during storm events were evaluated over the study period because many management practices that were implemented were designed to achieve nutrient and sediment reductions by slowing or intercepting runoff. The average number and length of storm events was mostly unchanged throughout the monitoring network. Four watersheds with 10 years of streamflow data showed a mixture of trends in stormflow peak, volume, and rate-of-change. Event-mean nutrient and sediment concentrations from these watersheds were evaluated during storm events and generally showed increases in total phosphorus (TP) and suspended sediment and reductions or no changes in total nitrogen (TN). Landscape inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus and the percentage of inputs delivered to streams were estimated for the study watersheds. Estimated phosphorus from fertilizer and nitrogen from atmospheric deposition represented large nutrient inputs in most watersheds; amounts of other nonpoint sources varied based on land use. Estimated nitrogen inputs declined throughout Fairfax County and in most study watersheds from 2008 through 2018; in comparison, phosphorus input changes were relatively small. Most nonpoint-nutrient inputs were retained on the landscape and did not reach streams, with slightly more nitrogen retention than phosphorus, on average. Retention rates were lower for years with more precipitation and streamflow. After adjusting for streamflow, TN and TP loads were generally higher for years with more nutrient inputs. Calculated as a function of flow-adjusted loads, TP retention declined at most stations from 2009 through 2018, in comparison, TN retention was relatively unchanged. Landscape and climatic conditions affected spatial differences and changes in Fairfax County stream conditions from 2009 through 2018. TN concentrations were higher and increases over time were larger in watersheds with elevated septic-system density. TP concentrations were higher in watersheds with more turfgrass; concentrations were lower, but had larger increases over time, in watersheds with deeper soils. Suspended-sediment concentrations were higher in watersheds with greater stream densities. Specific conductance was higher in watersheds with more developed land use and shallower soils. Benthic-macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity (IBI) scores were lower in watersheds with high road density and had larger increases over time in bigger, more developed watersheds. Annual variability in TN and TP concentrations and benthic-macroinvertebrate IBI scores was affected by precipitation; annual variability in suspended sediment concentrations and specific conductance was affected by air temperature. After accounting for influences from landscape and climatic conditions, expected management-practice effects were not consistently observed in monitored stream responses. These effects were assessed by comparing expected management-practice load reductions with the timing, direction, and magnitude of changes in storm-event hydrology, nutrient and sediment loads, median-annual water-quality conditions, and benthic-macroinvertebrate IBI scores. An important consideration for future investigations of management-practice effects is how to control for water-quality and ecological variability caused by geologic properties, the urban environment, precipitation, and (or) air temperature. The interpretation of management-practice effects in this report was likely influenced by a combination of factors, including (1) the amount, timing, and location of management-practice implementation; (2) unmeasured landscape and climatic factors; (3) uncertain management-practice expectations; (4) hydrologic variability; and (5) analytical assumptions. Through continued data-collection efforts, particularly after management practices have been completed, many of these factors may become less influential in the future.

Virginia↗