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Statistical detection of flow regime changes in horizontal hydraulically fractured Bakken oil wells

The application of horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells for producing oil from low permeability formations has changed the face of the North American oil industry. One feature of the production profile of many such wells is a transition from transient linear oil flow to boundary-dominated flow. The identification of the time of this transition is important for the calibration of models that forecast the well’s future production and the expected ultimate recovery. It is preferable that such models generally use data from the boundary-dominated flow regime for parameter calibration. Accurate well production forecasts are needed for operational decisions, long-term planning, commercial transactions, regulatory proceedings, and asset valuation. Petroleum engineers frequently make the call on the transition point based on subjective visual interpretations of log–log plots for individual wells. This is time-consuming and is generally not repeatable by other analysts. This note evaluates statistical approaches that can serve as alternatives to the subjective visual interpretations. Specifically, the predictive performance of production models calibrated with boundary-dominated data based on transition dates calculated with constrained nonlinear least squares and Bayesian regressions was very close to that obtained using the visual method, suggesting that statistical approaches may indeed be constructed to replace less objective visual approaches without loss of accuracy.

Natural Resources Research

Estimating groundwater recharge

Groundwater recharge is the entry of fresh water into the saturated portion of the subsurface part of the hydrologic cycle, the modifier “saturated” indicating that the pressure of the pore water is greater than atmospheric. Briefly stated, recharge is downward flux across the water table. The term “groundwater recharge” can refer either to the multiple interacting processes generating and controlling the flux or to the flux R itself. When referring to flux, R can represent either (1) a value integrated over large areas and long periods of time or (2) a point value, or instantaneous flux density, that varies erratically as well as continuously in time and space. Knowing how R is distributed through space and time is required for understanding the dynamics of groundwater flow and transport in any watershed, aquifer, or selected domain of interest and for understanding heads, flow paths, and discharges to streams, wetlands, and other surface water bodies. Clearly among the most important of hydrologic fluxes, R is also one of the most difficult to measure. Advancements in hydrologic science have proceeded surprisingly in lockstep with advances in determining R .

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

[Book review] Waterfowl ecology and management: Selected readings

This book is a compilation of papers from the extensive and varied published literature on the ecology and management of waterfowl. The 125 technical papers reprinted in this book are arranged in eight major sections and are from 21 journals, government reports, several books, and proceedings of symposia and annual conferences. The most frequent sources of papers are The Journal of Wildlife Management, The Auk, Transactions North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference, and Wildfowl. These readings span the period from 1937 through 1981. A majority of the technical papers was published during the sixties and seventies, reflecting the expansion of waterfowl research during that period. The front cover and the introductory page of each section are illustrated with black-and-white drawings of North American waterfowl by D. R. Barrick.

The Auk

Appendix D—Notes on Darcy's law and permeability

In any effort to establish nomenclature relating to the flow of fluids through porous media it would seem well first to consider the history of the development of our concepts and of the terms or expressions involved. Only in this way can precedent rightfully be honored and at the same time duplicating expressions be eliminated and the remaining more useful terms clarified. Then, proceeding with a foresight lined up with recent advances, we may hope to anticipate the needs of the future.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Geochemistry of water

The quadrennium 1967–1970 has been a productive period in the field of water geochemistry. Field studies, laboratory investigations, and theoretical considerations have led to significant advances in our knowledge of the chemical behavior of natural waters and of the solid earth materials that contain them. A symposium on trace inorganics in water, sponsored by the American Chemical Society, was held in Miami, Florida, in 1967. The proceedings of this conference were published in 1968 in the Advances in Chemistry Series 73. This volume deals with the occurrence, behavior, and analysis of inorganic constituents in natural waters.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Determinants of fish assemblage structure in Northwestern Great Plains streams

Prairie streams are known for their harsh and stochastic physical conditions, and the fish assemblages therein have been shown to be temporally variable. We assessed the spatial and temporal variation in fish assemblage structure in five intermittent, adventitious northwestern Great Plains streams representing a gradient of watershed areas. Fish assemblages and abiotic conditions varied more spatially than temporally. The most important variables explaining fish assemblage structure were longitudinal position and the proportion of fine substrates. The proportion of fine substrates increased proceeding upstream, approaching 100% in all five streams, and species richness declined upstream with increasing fine substrates. High levels of fine substrate in the upper reaches appeared to limit the distribution of obligate lithophilic fish species to reaches further downstream. Species richness and substrates were similar among all five streams at the lowermost and uppermost sites. However, in the middle reaches, species richness increased, the amount of fine substrate decreased, and connectivity increased as watershed area increased. Season and some dimensions of habitat (including thalweg depth, absolute distance to the main-stem river, and watershed size) were not essential in explaining the variation in fish assemblages. Fish species richness varied more temporally than overall fish assemblage structure did because common species were consistently abundant across seasons, whereas rare species were sometimes absent or perhaps not detected by sampling. The similarity in our results among five streams varying in watershed size and those from other studies supports the generalization that spatial variation exceeds temporal variation in the fish assemblages of prairie and warmwater streams. Furthermore, given longitudinal position, substrate, and stream size, general predictions regarding fish assemblage structure and function in prairie streams are possible. ?? American Fisheries Society 2011.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Book review: Proceedings of the First International Snakehead Symposium

Snakehead fishes (family Channidae) are among the most maligned aquatic invasive species in the USA and some other countries where they have been introduced outside of their native range in Asia and Africa. Nevertheless, snakeheads continue to be widely exploited in the live‐food trade in aquaculture and wild‐capture fisheries, are highly sought by anglers, and are also popular in the aquarium trade (Courtenay and Williams 2004). The Northern Snakehead Channa argus is the most widespread of the three channid species that are currently naturalized in the USA. This species has generated much concern and controversy, a situation that is partly fueled by sensational media coverage and B‐grade science fiction horror films, such as “Frankenfish,” “Snakehead Terror,” and “Snakehead Swamp.” Media reports of snakehead introductions are often replete with provocative terms, such as “vicious,” “villain,” “voracious,” “monster,” “diabolical,” and even “ecological Armageddon.” When snakeheads first appeared in natural waters of the USA, fisheries professionals became increasingly interested in their status. Established populations rapidly expanded in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas, with scattered reports of introduced snakeheads from isolated locations in Hawaii, California, North Carolina, Florida, the Upper Midwest, and New England. In 2002, snakeheads were added to the list of injurious fishes under the Lacey Act, thereby prohibiting their importation or transport across state lines without a permit. This symposium was conceived by the editors and other concerned fisheries professionals of the Mississippi River Basin Panel on Aquatic Invasive Species. The mission of the symposium, held in Alexandria, Virginia, in July 2018, was to bring together experts on snakehead biology and ecology and to synthesize existing information into summary papers. In this book, 35 authors contributed to 15 peer‐reviewed articles that detail the current state of knowledge about snakehead introductions in the USA. Additionally, 16 abstracts are included from meeting presentations that were not accompanied by full‐length manuscripts. Also included is a summary of a facilitated symposium panel discussion featuring eight experts representing state and federal natural resource agencies and private fishing organizations. The book is organized into six sections. In the first section (Distribution), three papers provide an overview of the Channa species introduced into the USA and historical accounts of occurrence and dispersal of the Northern Snakehead in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas. The second section (Biology/Ecology) consists of two articles that examine growth and energetics of Northern Snakehead populations and two papers that investigate diet, diel feeding activity, and movement of this species in the Potomac River drainage. The third section (Monitoring/Response) includes a paper that models range expansion of the Northern Snakehead in the southeastern USA based on occurrence data and environmental conditions. Also included in this section is a paper summarizing an environmental DNA study to assess the status and range of the Bullseye Snakehead C. marulius in southern Florida. The fourth section (Management/Control) is comprised of four papers that address harvest, age and growth, and development of a stock–recruitment model to inform management decisions regarding control and mitigation for Northern Snakehead populations in the greater Chesapeake Bay area. The fifth section (Perspectives) includes a paper on the history of snakehead introductions in Japan and a thought‐provoking social commentary on the human dimensions of Northern Snakehead management. Abstracts in the final section provide brief summaries of a diversity of snakehead studies, including aspects of distribution, ecology, behavior, control and monitoring efforts, public outreach, and pathology. The summary of the panel discussion is an engaging dialogue about the challenges of snakehead management in the context of conflicts regarding snakeheads as injurious versus their value as game and food species. Most of this book is focused on the Northern Snakehead. Much has been done to document snakehead distributions and certain aspects of snakehead biology, such as diets, age, and growth. Less research has been devoted to understanding the ecological impacts of snakeheads to native aquatic communities and ecosystems. This book would have benefited from a chapter summarizing the current systematics and diversity of the Channidae to inform fisheries biologists about the morphological characteristics of the family, approximate numbers of genera and species, and taxonomic instability. Exemplifying the latter, recent molecular and morphological evidence indicates uncertainty regarding identification of the feral snakehead population in Florida (Adamson and Britz 2019). Those authors suggest that this population may have originated from western Thailand, a possibility that could have implications for understanding historical pathways of snakehead introductions into the USA. In comparison with many published AFS symposia, this volume is relatively narrow in scope and lacks cohesive integration. It will primarily be of interest to those fisheries professionals engaged in the study of snakeheads as well as other nonnative species for which there are contrasting social values regarding their management: whether to monitor and attempt control or eradication efforts or to maintain populations for harvest as game or food species. The book should serve to identify information gaps and guide future research.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society