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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Plant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge

Big sagebrush ecosystems are widespread across drylands of western North America and provide numerous services, but the abundance of these ecosystems has declined substantially and the future of these ecosystems is uncertain. As a result, characterizing potential areas for expansion of these ecosystems is important. Species distribution models of the big sagebrush suggest areas of increasing climatic habitat suitability at northern latitudes under climate change scenarios. This implies the formation of a leading edge during a future big sagebrush range expansion. Such an expansion requires that current nearby range margin big sagebrush populations are stable and serve as future seed sources. Our goal was to quantify the impacts of future climate conditions on the plant community composition and biomass in the in range margin big sagebrush plant communities adjacent to the leading edge. We did this using an individual-based soil water and plant growth simulation model, STEPWAT2. We assessed community dynamics throughout the twenty-first century using 13 climate models under two representative concentration pathways to capture the variability among projections. Our results show minimal overall change in plant community composition and little change in biomass, suggesting that range margin big sagebrush plant communities adjacent to the leading edge will remain stable to serve as essential dispersal sources for future range expansion, assuming no other relevant changes such as changes in disturbance regimes. These assessments of plant community responses to shifts in climate and characterization of variability in future projections will help inform conservation planning and management of the big sagebrush ecosystem.

Regional Environmental Change↗
USGS2015

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Holocene fire occurrence and alluvial responses at the leading edge of pinyon–juniper migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat ( Neotoma ) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~ 10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~ 9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~ 1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~ 700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~ 850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion.

Idaho↗
USGS2026

At the leading edge: Advancing and bridging the science and management of range-shifting species

Climate-mediated shifts in species distributions are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, creating major challenges for conservation and resource management. These range shifts have far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences, requiring managers to address complex ecological dynamics while navigating diverse regulatory and value systems. Despite growing attention, key gaps remain in supporting management, from improved understanding of the mechanisms of range shifts, to evaluating the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, and tailoring science to the institutional and social contexts of decision-making. Central challenges include scaling processes across space, time, and organizational levels, and reconciling mismatches between biogeographical and management scales. Progress will depend on more comprehensive datasets to assess outcomes across taxa and regions, stronger cross-jurisdictional cooperation, and decision frameworks that integrate uncertainty alongside multiple value systems. Addressing these gaps is essential to make research more actionable and to enable successful management of species redistribution.

BioScience↗
USGS2016

Predictors of current and longer-term patterns of abundance of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) across a leading-edge protected area

American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) have been heralded as indicators of montane-mammal response to contemporary climate change. Pikas no longer occupy the driest and lowest-elevation sites in numerous parts of their geographic range. Conversely, pikas have exhibited higher rates of occupancy and persistence in Rocky Mountain and Sierra Nevada montane ‘mainlands’. Research and monitoring efforts on pikas across the western USA have collectively shown the nuance and complexity with which climate will often act on species in diverse topographic and climatic contexts. However, to date no studies have investigated habitat, distribution, and abundance of pikas across hundreds of sites within a remote wilderness area. Additionally, relatively little is known about whether climate acts most strongly on pikas through direct or indirect (e.g., vegetation-mediated) mechanisms. During 2007–2009, we collectively hiked >16,000 km throughout the 410,077-ha Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, in an effort to identify topographic, microrefugial, and vegetative characteristics predictive of pika abundance. We identified 411 apparently pika-suitable habitat patches with binoculars ( in situ ), and surveyed 314 of them for pika signs. Ranking of alternative logistic-regression models based on AIC c scores revealed that short-term pika abundances were positively associated with intermediate elevations, greater cover of mosses, and taller forbs, and decreased each year, for a total decline of 68% during the three-year study; whereas longer-term abundances were associated only with static variables (longitude, elevation, gradient) and were lower on north-facing slopes. Earlier Julian date and time of day of the survey (i.e., midday vs. not) were associated with lower observed pika abundance. We recommend that wildlife monitoring account for this seasonal and diel variation when surveying pikas. Broad-scale information on status and abundance determinants of montane mammals, especially for remote protected areas, is crucial for land and wildlife-resource managers trying to anticipate mammalian responses to climate change.

Montana↗
USGS2008

Traveltime of the Rio Grande in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico, water years 2003-05

The quality of water in the Rio Grande is becoming increasingly important as more surface water is proposed for diversion from the river for potable and nonpotable uses. In cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, the U.S. Geological Survey examined traveltime of the Rio Grande in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to evaluate the potential travel of a conservative solute entrained in the river's streamflow. A flow-pulse analysis was performed to determine traveltimes of a wide range of streamflows in the Rio Grande, to develop traveltime curves for estimating the possible traveltime of a conservative solute in the Rio Grande between Cochiti Dam and Albuquerque, and to evaluate streamflow velocities and dispersion and storage characteristics of the Rio Grande in the entire Middle Rio Grande Basin. A flow-pulse analysis was applied to 12 pulse events recorded during the 2003-05 water years for streamflow-gaging stations between Cochiti Dam and the city of San Acacia. Pulse streamflows ranged from 495 to 5,190 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Three points of each pulse were tracked as the pulse passed a station - rising-limb leading edge, plateau leading edge, and plateau trailing edge. Most pulses indicated longer traveltimes for each successive point in the pulse. Dispersion and spreading of the pulses decreased with increased streamflow. Decreasing traveltimes were not always consistent with increasing streamflow, particularly for flows less than 1,750 ft3/s, and the relation of traveltime and original pulse streamflow at Cochiti indicated a nonlinear component. Average streamflow velocities decreased by greater than 30 percent from San Felipe to San Acacia. The expected trend of increasing dispersion with downstream travel was not always visible because of other influences on streamflow. With downstream flow, distributions of the pulses became more skewed to the descending limbs, indicating possible short-term storage of a part of the pulses.

New Mexico↗
USGS2004

Development of a traveltime prediction equation for streams in Arkansas

During 1971 and 1981 and 2001 and 2003, traveltime measurements were made at 33 sample sites on 18 streams throughout northern and western Arkansas using fluorescent dye. Most measurements were made during steady-state base-flow conditions with the exception of three measurements made during near steady-state medium-flow conditions (for the study described in this report, medium-flow is approximately 100-150 percent of the mean monthly streamflow during the month the dye trace was conducted). These traveltime data were compared to the U.S. Geological Survey?s national traveltime prediction equation and used to develop a specific traveltime prediction equation for Arkansas streams. In general, the national traveltime prediction equation yielded results that over-predicted the velocity of the streams for 29 of the 33 sites measured. The standard error for the national traveltime prediction equation was 105 percent. The coefficient of determination was 0.78. The Arkansas prediction equation developed from a regression analysis of dye-tracing results was a significant improvement over the national prediction equation. This regression analysis yielded a standard error of 46 percent and a coefficient of determination of 0.74. The predicted velocities using this equation compared better to measured velocities. Using the variables in a regression analysis, the Arkansas prediction equation derived for the peak velocity in feet per second was: (Actual Equation Shown in report) In addition to knowing when the peak concentration will arrive at a site, it is of great interest to know when the leading edge of a contaminant plume will arrive. The traveltime of the leading edge of a contaminant plume indicates when a potential problem might first develop and also defines the overall shape of the concentration response function. Previous USGS reports have shown no significant relation between any of the variables and the time from injection to the arrival of the leading edge of the dye plume. For this report, the analysis of the dye-tracing data yielded a significant correlation between traveltime of the leading edge and traveltime of the peak concentration with an R2 value of 0.99. These data indicate that the traveltime of the leading edge can be estimated from: (Actual Equation Shown in Report)

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Seismic subduction of the Nazca Ridge as shown by the 1996-97 Peru earthquakes

By rupturing more than half of the shallow subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge, the great November 12, 1996 Peruvian earthquake contradicts the hypothesis that oceanic ridges subduct aseismically. The mainshock's rupture has a length of about 200 km and has an average slip of about 1.4 m. Its moment is 1.5 x 1028 dyne-cm and the corresponding M(w) is 8.0. The mainshock registered three major episodes of moment release as shown by a finite fault inversion of teleseismically recorded broadband body waves. About 55% of the mainshock's total moment release occurred south of the Nazca Ridge, and the remaining moment release occurred at the southern half of the subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge. The rupture south of the Nazca Ridge was elongated parallel to the ridge axis and extended from a shallow depth to about 65 km depth. Because the axis of the Nazca Ridge is at a high angle to the plate convergence direction, the subducting Nazca Ridge has a large southwards component of motion, 5 cm/yr parallel to the coast. The 900-1200 m relief of the southwards sweeping Nazca Ridge is interpreted to act as a 'rigid indenter,' causing the greatest coupling south of the ridge's leading edge and leading to the large observed slip. The mainshock and aftershock hypocenters were relocated using a new procedure that simultaneously inverts local and teleseismic data. Most aftershocks were within the outline of the Nazca Ridge. A three-month delayed aftershock cluster' occurred at the northern part of the subducting Nazca Ridge. Aftershocks were notably lacking at the zone of greatest moment release, to the south of the Nazca Ridge. However, a lone foreshock at the southern end of this zone, some 140 km downstrike of the mainshock's epicenter, implies that conditions existed for rupture into that zone. The 1996 earthquake ruptured much of the inferred source zone of the M(w) 7.9-8.2 earthquake of 1942, although the latter was a slightly larger earthquake. The rupture zone of the 1996 earthquake is immediately north of the seismic gap left by the great earthquakes (M(w) ~8.8-9.1) of 1868 and 1877. The M(w) 8.0 Antofagasta earthquake of 1995 occurred at the southern end of this great seismic gap. The M(w) 8.2 deep-focus Bolivian earthquake of 1994 occurred directly downdip of the 1868 portion of that gap. The recent occurrence of three significant earthquakes on the periphery of the great seismic gap of the 1868 and 1877 events, among other factors, may signal an increased seismic potential for that zone.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS1999

Traveltimes along Clear Creek and selected tributaries upstream from Golden, Colorado, 1996-97

Increased traffic along mountainous stretches of Interstate Highway 70, U.S. Highway 40, and U.S. Highway 6 in Colorado has resulted in a corresponding increase in the movement of hazardous materials. The proximity of Clear Creek and its tributaries to these highways places downstream water users at risk in the event of an accidental hazardous-material release. A traveltime study was performed on two reaches of Clear Creek and two of its tributaries to provide the necessary information to allow downstream water managers to protect water supplies in the event of a hazardous-material release. The information also can be used by hazardous-materialresponse teams to intercept contaminants as they move downstream. This report summarizes the methods and findings of the traveltime study. Traveltime measurements were made using rhodamine-WT dye as a tracer in two reaches of Clear Creek and two Clear Creek tributaries in Clear Creek and Jefferson Counties, Colorado. The reaches were Clear Creek from the town of Berthoud Falls to the city limits of Golden; Clear Creek from the eastern edge of the Loveland Basin Ski Area parking lot to the town of Georgetown; the headwaters of two Clear Creek tributaries near Loveland Pass to the Loveland Valley Ski Area; and two unnamed tributaries of Hoop Creek (a tributary of Clear Creek) near Berthoud Pass to the confluence with the West Fork of Clear Creek. Measurements were made at three times of the year to obtain data from different flow conditions. Traveltime and average velocities were determined for each stream reach. During high flow, dye-cloud leading-edge traveltimes ranged from about 0.6 hour along the Loveland Pass to the Loveland Valley Ski Area drainage to about 8.8 hours between Berthoud Falls and Golden. During low flow, leading-edge traveltimes ranged from about 2.6 hours along the same drainage from Loveland Pass to about 28.6 hours between Berthoud Falls and Golden. Average velocity between the Loveland Pass sites ranged from about 1.3 miles per hour during high flow to about 0.3 mile per hour during low flow. Average velocities between Berthoud Falls and Golden ranged from about 4.4 miles per hour during high flow to about 1.3 miles per hour during low flow. A curve-fitting program was used to fit Lorentz and Gaussian distributions to the data generated from the traveltime measurements. Because discrete (not continuous) traveltime measurements were made, an estimate of the actual time of the leading edge, peak, and trailing edge needed to be determined from the sample data. The curve-fitting program provided the means to calculate the timing of events (leading edge, peak, and trailing edge) that were not precisely measured. Calculated leading-edge, peak, and trailing-edge times were used to generate a series of graphs for each study reach. Traveltime estimation tables were generated from the data for a range of Clear Creek discharges. Because of the high variability of discharge within the basin, the Lawson surface-water gage located near the center of the basin was used as the reference location. Discharge measurements for the Lawson gage are available on the Internet, which can be accessed by most hazardous-material-team dispatchers. Traveltimes determined during the individual studies were plotted against the corresponding discharge at the reference location. A curve-fitting program was used to generate a series of curves, which were used to produce traveltime estimation tables.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2007

Estimated and measured traveltime for the Crow River watershed, Minnesota

A time-of-travel study involving a luminescent dye was done on the Crow River in Minnesota from Rockford to the confluence with the Mississippi River at Dayton on July 11, 2006, at a streamflow of 293 cubic feet per second at Rockford. Dye was injected in the Crow River at Rockford, and traveltime and concentrations were measured at three sampling locations downstream: at the Hanover historic bridge in Hanover, at County Road 116 near St. Michael, and at County Road 12 in Dayton. The results of the measured traveltimes were compared to estimated traveltimes from a previous study of the Crow River and six other rivers in the Upper Mississippi River basin in 2003. Regression equations based on watershed characteristics of drainage area, river slope, mean-annual streamflow, and instantaneous streamflow at the time of measurement from more than 900 stream segments across the Nation were used to estimate traveltimes. Traveltimes were estimated and measured for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge of tracer-response curves. Estimated traveltimes for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge at Dayton were 25.3, 28.4, and 35.6 hours, respectively. Measured traveltimes for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge at Dayton were 33.2, 38.2, and 49.2 hours, respectively, for the 22.4-mile reach. Although traveltimes for the Crow and the Sauk Rivers were underestimated by use of the regression equations, the regression estimates were close enough to measured values to be considered satisfactory; hence, this estimating technique should be applicable in other source-water planning efforts in and near the study area.

Minnesota↗
USGS1996

Prediction of traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in rivers and streams

The possibility of a contaminant being accidentally or intentionally spilled upstream from a water supply is a constant concern to those diverting and using water from streams and rivers. Although many excellent models are available to estimate traveltime and dispersion, none can be used with confidence before calibration and verification to the particular river reach in question. Therefore, the availability of reliable input information is usually the weakest link in the chain of events needed to predict the rate of movement, dilution, and mixing of contaminants in rivers and streams. Measured tracer-response curves produced from the injection of a known quantity of soluble tracer provide an efficient method of obtaining the necessary data. The purpose of this report is to use previously presented concepts along with extensive data collected on time of travel and dispersion to provide guidance to water-resources managers and planners in responding to spills. This is done by providing methods to estimate (1) the rate of movement of a contaminant through a river reach, (2) the rate of attenuation of the peak concentration of a conservative contaminant with time, and (3) the length of time required for the contaminant plume to pass a point in the river. Although the accuracy of the predictions can be greatly increased by performing time-oftravel studies on the river reach in question, the emphasis of this report is on providing methods for making estimates where few data are available. Results from rivers of all sizes can be combined by defining the unit concentration as that concentration of a conservative pollutant that would result from injecting a unit of mass into a unit of flow. Unit-peak concentrations are compiled for more than 60 different rivers representing a wide range of sizes, slopes, and geomorphic types. Analyses of these data indicate that the unitpeak concentration is well correlated with the time required for a pollutant cloud to reach a specific point in the river. The variance among different rivers is, of course, larger than for a specific river reach. Other river characteristics that were compiled and included in the correlation included the drainage area, the reach slope, the mean annual discharge, and the discharge at the time of the measurement. The most significant other variable in the correlation was the ratio of the river discharge to mean annual discharge. The prediction of the traveltime is more difficult than the prediction of unit-peak concentration; but the logarithm of stream velocity can be assumed to be linearly correlated with the logarithm of discharge. More than 980 subreaches for about 90 different rivers were analyzed and prediction equations were developed based on the drainage area, the reach slope, the mean annual discharge, and the discharge at the time of the measurement. The highest probable velocity, which will result in the highest concentration, is usually of concern after an accidental spill. Therefore, an envelope curve for which more than 99 percent of the velocities were smaller was developed to address this concern. The time of arrival of the leading edge of the pollutant indicates when a problem will first exist and defines the overall shape of the tracer-response function. The traveltime of the leading edge is generally about 89 percent of the traveltime to the peak concentration. The area under a tracer-response function (a known value when unit concentrations are used) can be closely approximated as the area under a triangle with a height of the peak concentration and a base extending from the leading edge to a point where the concentration has reduced to 1C percent of the peak. Knowing the time of the leading edge and the peak, the peak concentration, and the time when the response function has reduced to 10 percent of its peak value allows the complete response function to be sketched with fair accuracy. Four example applications are included to illustrate how the prediction equations developed in this report can be used either to calibrate a mathematical model or to make predictions directly.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1996

Processes affecting the fate of monoaromatic hydrocarbons in an aquifer contaminated by crude oil

Crude oil spilled from a subsurface pipeline in north-central Minnesota has dissolved in the groundwater, resulting in the formation of a plume of aliphatic, aromatic, and alicyclic hydrocarbons. Comparison of paired oil and groundwater samples collected along the central axis of the residual oil body shows that the trailing edge of the oil is depleted in the more soluble aromatic hydrocarbons (e.g., benzene, toluene, etc.) when compared with the leading edge. At the same time, concentrations of monoaromatic hydrocarbons in groundwater beneath the oil increase as the water moves toward the leading edge of the oil. Immediately downgradient from the leading edge of the oil body, certain aromatic hydrocarbons (e.g., benzene) are found at concentrations near those expected of a system at equilibrium, and the concentrations exhibit little variation over time (???8-20%). Other compounds (e.g., toluene) appear to be undersaturated, and their concentrations show considerably more temporal variation (???20-130%). The former are persistent within the anoxic zone downgradient from the oil, whereas concentrations of the latter decrease rapidly. Together, these observations suggest that the volatile hydrocarbon composition of the anoxic groundwater near the oil body is controlled by a balance between dissolution and removal rates with only the most persistent compounds reaching saturation. Examination of the distributions of homologous series and isomeric assemblages of alkylbenzenes reveals that microbial degradation is the dominant process controlling the fate of these compounds once groundwater moves away from the oil. For all but the most persistent compounds, the distal boundary of the plume at the water table extends no more than 10-15 m down-gradient from the oxic/anoxic transition zone. Thus, transport of the monoaromatic hydrocarbons is limited by redox conditions that are tightly coupled to biological degradation processes.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2005

Hydrogeology and trichloroethene contamination in the sea-level aquifer beneath the Logistics Center, Fort Lewis, Washington

The U.S. Army disposed of waste trichloroethene (TCE) and other materials in the East Gate Disposal Yard near the Logistics Center on Fort Lewis, Washington, from the 1940s to the early 1970s. As a result, ground water contaminated with primarily TCE extends more than 3 miles downgradient from the East Gate Disposal Yard. The site is underlain by a complex and heterogeneous sequence of glacial and non-glacial deposits that have been broadly categorized into an upper and a lower aquifer (the latter referred to as the sea-level aquifer). TCE contamination was detected in both aquifers. This report describes an investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of the source, migration, and attenuation of TCE in the sea-level aquifer. A refined conceptual model for ground-water flow and contaminant migration into and through the sea-level aquifer was developed in large part from interpretation of environmental tracer data. The tracers used included stable isotopes of oxygen (18O), hydrogen (2H), and carbon (13C); the radioactive hydrogen isotope tritium (3H); common ions and redox-related analytes; chlorofluorocarbons; and sulfur hexafluoride. Tracer and TCE concentrations were determined for samples collected by the USGS from 37 wells and two surface-water sites in American Lake during 1999-2000. Ground-water levels were measured by the USGS in more than 40 wells during 2000-01, and were combined with measurements by the U.S. Army and others to create potentiometric-surface maps. Localized ground-water flow features were identified that are of particular relevance to the migration of TCE in the study area. A ridge of ground water beneath American Lake diverts the flow of TCE-contaminated ground water in the sea-level aquifer to the west around the southern end of the lake. Tracer data provided clear evidence that American Lake is a significant source of recharge to the sea-level aquifer that has created that ridge of ground water. High ground-water altitudes at locations north and northeast of the Logistics Center combined with the ridge beneath American Lake prevent TCE contaminated water beneath the Logistics Center from migrating toward municipal water-supply wells northeast of the site. The 1999-2000 TCE concentrations measured by the USGS at older wells screened in the sea-level aquifer were similar to those measured since 1995, but the known downgradient extent of the TCE contamination expanded nearly 2 miles after the Army installed and sampled new wells during 2003-04. Concentrations of TCE in the sea-level aquifer were consistently highest in the upper part of the aquifer throughout the plume, although TCE has spread throughout much of the thickness of the aquifer in the downgradient portions of the plume. Environmental tracer data indicated that the primary pathway for contaminant migration into the sea-level aquifer is through the previously identified confining unit window, an area where the predominately fine-grained confining unit is relatively coarse grained and more permeable. Other less substantial pathways for contaminant migration also were identified near the East Gate Disposal Yard and the I-5 pump-and-treat facilities. Those areas are near active pumping wells and ground-water reintroduction facilities, but there is no evidence that the contaminant migration was caused or enhanced by those activities. Within the sea-level aquifer, TCE concentrations continue to migrate westward in the flow field strongly influenced by ground-water recharge from American Lake. Historical data are not available to definitively determine if the 5-?g/L leading edge of the current TCE plume is stable or if it is still moving downgradient. However, an evaluation of the available data combined with TCE traveltime estimates indicates that the peak TCE concentrations in the sea-level aquifer may have not yet reached the wells near the currently defined leading edge of the plume. Hypothetically, the 5-?g/L leading edge

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1984

The thrust belt in Southwest Montana and east-central Idaho

The leading edge of the Cordilleran fold and thrust in southwest Montana appears to be a continuation of the edge of the Wyoming thrust belt, projected northward beneath the Snake River Plain. Trces of the thrust faults that form the leading edge of the thrust belts are mostly concealed, but stratigraphic and structural evidence suggests that the belt enters Montana near the middle of the Centennial Mountains, continues west along the Red Rock River valley, and swings north into the Highland Mountains near Butte. The thrust belt in southwest Montana and east-central Idaho includes at least two major plates -- the Medicine Lodge and Grasshopper thrust plates -- each of which contains a distinctive sequence of rocks, different in facies and structural style from those of the cratonic region east of the thrust belt. The thrust plates are characterized by persuasive, open to tight and locally overturned folds, and imbricate thrust faults, structural styles unusual in Phanerozoic cratonic rocks. The basal decollement zones of the plates are composed of intensely sheared, crushed, brecciated, and mylonitized rocks, the decollement at the base of the Medicine Lodge plate is as much as 300 meters thick. The Medicine Lodge and Grasshopper thrust plates are fringed on the east by a 10- to 50-kilometer-wide zone of tightly folded rocks cut by imbricate thrust fauls, a zone that forms the eastern margin of the thrust belt in southwest Montana. The frontal fold and thrust zone includes rocks that are similar to those of the craton, even though they differ in details of thickness, composition, or stratigraphic sequence. The zone is interpreted to be one of terminal folding and thrusting in cratonic rocks overridden by the major thrust plates from farther west. The cratonic rocks were drape-folded over rising basement blocks that formed a foreland bulge in front of the thrust belt. The basement blocks are bounded by steep faults of Proterozoic ancestry, which also moved as tear faults during thrusting, and seem to have controlled the curving patterns of salients and reentrants at the leading edge of the thrust belt. Radiometric and stratiographic evidence shows that the thrust belt was in its present position by about 75 million year go.

Idaho;Montana↗
USGS2004

Interpretation of the Seattle Uplift, Washington, as a passive-roof duplex

We interpret seismic lines and a wide variety of other geological and geophysical data to suggest that the Seattle uplift is a passive-roof duplex. A passive-roof duplex is bounded top and bottom by thrust faults with opposite senses of vergence that form a triangle zone at the leading edge of the advancing thrust sheet. In passive-roof duplexes the roof thrust slips only when the floor thrust ruptures. The Seattle fault is a south-dipping reverse fault forming the leading edge of the Seattle uplift, a 40-km-wide fold-and-thrust belt. The recently discovered, north-dipping Tacoma reverse fault is interpreted as a back thrust on the trailing edge of the belt, making the belt doubly vergent. Floor thrusts in the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones, imaged as discontinuous reflections, are interpreted as blind faults that flatten updip into bedding plane thrusts. Shallow monoclines in both the Seattle and Tacoma basins are interpreted to overlie the leading edges of thrust-bounded wedge tips advancing into the basins. Across the Seattle uplift, seismic lines image several shallow, short-wavelength folds exhibiting Quaternary or late Quaternary growth. From reflector truncation, several north-dipping thrust faults (splay thrusts) are inferred to core these shallow folds and to splay upward from a shallow roof thrust. Some of these shallow splay thrusts ruptured to the surface in the late Holocene. Ages from offset soils in trenches across the fault scarps and from abruptly raised shorelines indicate that the splay, roof, and floor thrusts of the Seattle and Tacoma faults ruptured about 1100 years ago.

Washington↗
USGS2004

Estimation of travel times for seven tributaries of the Mississippi River, St. Cloud to Minneapolis, Minnesota, 2003

Travel times for seven streams tributary to the Mississippi River from St. Cloud to Minneapolis, Minnesota, were estimated for three flow conditions; low, median, and high. Travel times were estimated for Sauk, Elk, Crow, and Rum Rivers, and Elm, Coon, and Rice Creeks. Regression equations based on watershed characteristics of drainage area, river slope, mean annual discharge, and instantaneous discharge at the time of measurement from more than 900 streams across the nation were used to estimate travel times. Travel times were estimated for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge of tracer-response curves. To test the validity of these equations, a time of travel study, using a luminescent dye, was conducted on the Sauk River, from Rockville, to the confluence with the Mississippi River on June 16, 2003, at a discharge of 457 ft 3 /s at Rockville. Dye was injected in the Sauk River at Rockville, and time and concentrations were measured at three sampling sections downstream; at County Road 121, Veterans Drive, and County Road 1 near the mouth. The estimated travel times for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge at County Road 1 were 10.6 hrs, 11.9 hrs, and 14.6 hrs, respectively. The measured travel times for the leading edge, peak concentration, and trailing edge were 13.4 hrs, 15.5 hrs, and 20.5 hrs, respectively for the 15.7 mile reach.

Minnesota↗