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Results for “Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics”

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10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS1988

Asymptotic Rayleigh instantaneous unit hydrograph

The instantaneous unit hydrograph for a channel network under general linear routing and conditioned on the network magnitude, N, tends asymptotically, as N grows large, to a Rayleigh probability density function. This behavior is identical to that of the width function of the network, and is proven under the assumption that the network link configuration is topologically random and the link hydraulic and geometric properties are independent and identically distributed random variables. The asymptotic distribution depends only on a scale factor, {Mathematical expression}, where ?? is a mean link wave travel time. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics↗
USGS1989

Predictors of the peak width for networks with exponential links

We investigate optimal predictors of the peak (S) and distance to peak (T) of the width function of drainage networks under the assumption that the networks are topologically random with independent and exponentially distributed link lengths. Analytical results are derived using the fact that, under these assumptions, the width function is a homogeneous Markov birth-death process. In particular, exact expressions are derived for the asymptotic conditional expectations of S and T given network magnitude N and given mainstream length H. In addition, a simulation study is performed to examine various predictors of S and T, including N, H, and basin morphometric properties; non-asymptotic conditional expectations and variances are estimated. The best single predictor of S is N, of T is H, and of the scaled peak (S divided by the area under the width function) is H. Finally, expressions tested on a set of drainage basins from the state of Wyoming perform reasonably well in predicting S and T despite probable violations of the original assumptions. ?? 1989 Springer-Verlag.

Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics↗
USGS1989

Basin-scale relations via conditioning

A rainfall-runoff model is used in conjunction with a probabilistic description of the input to this model to obtain simple regression-like relations for basin runoff in terms of basin and storm characteristics. These relations, similar to those sought in regionalization studies, are computed by evaluating the conditional distribution of model output given basin and storm characteristics. This method of conditioning provides a general way of examining model sensitivity to various components of model input. The resulting relations may be expected to resemble corresponding relations obtained by regionalization using actual runoff to the extent that the rainfall-runoff model and the model input specification are physically realistic. The probabilistic description of model input is an extension of so-called "random-model" of channel networks and involves postulating an ensemble of basins and associated probability distributions that mimic the variability of basin characteristics seen in nature. Application is made to small basins in the State of Wyoming. Parameters of the input variable distribution are estimated using data from Wyoming, and basin-scale relations are estimated both, parametrically and nonparametrically using model-generated runoff from simulated basins. Resulting basin-scale relations involving annual flood quantiles are in reasonable agreement with those presented in a previous regionalization study, but error estimates are smaller than those in the previous study, an artifact of the simplicity of the rainfall-runoff model used in this paper. We also obtain relations for peak of the instantaneous unit hydrograph which agree fairly well with theoretical relations given in the literature. Finally, we explore the issues of sensitivity of basin-scale, relations and error estimates to parameterization of the model input probability distribution and of how this sensitivity is related to making inferences about a particular ungaged basin. ?? 1989 Springer-Verlag.

Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics↗
USGS1983

Hydrologic and geomorphic studies of the Platte River basin

The channels of the Platte River and its major tributaries, the South Platte and North Platte Rivers in Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska, have undergone major changes in hydrologic regime and morphology since about 1860, when the water resources of the basin began to be developed for agricultural, municipal, and industrial uses. These water uses have continued to increase with growth in population and land development. Diversion of flow from channels, storage of water in reservoirs, and increased use of ground water have affected the distribution and timing of streamflows and the transport of fluvial sediments. All these factors have contributed to changes in channel geometry and the riverine environment. In 1979, the U.S. Geological Survey began investigations in the Platte River basin to determine the effects of water use on the hydrology and morphology of the Platte River and its major tributaries. These investigations also considered the relationship of hydrologic regime to factors that control or affect the habitat of migratory waterfowl in the Platte River valley. This volume brings together the results of several research studies on historical changes in channel morphology, surface-water hydrology, hydraulic geometry, sediment-transport and bedform processes, ground-water and surface-water relations, stochastic models of streamflow and precipitation, and methods for estimating discharge required to maintain channel width. In each of the studies, data on some segment of the Platte River hydrologic system were collected and interpreted. All the studies are interrelated; together they provide some degree of understanding of regime changes that are occurring. The hydrologic research described in the following chapters will be useful in decision-making pertaining to the management of water resources and migratory waterfowl habitats.

Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming↗
USGS2013

Estimation of capture zones and drawdown at the Northwest and West Well Fields, Miami-Dade County, Florida, using an unconstrained Monte Carlo analysis: recent (2004) and proposed conditions

Travel-time capture zones and drawdown for two production well fields, used for drinking-water supply in Miami-Dade County, southeastern Florida, were delineated by the U.S Geological Survey using an unconstrained Monte Carlo analysis. The well fields, designed to supply a combined total of approximately 250 million gallons of water per day, pump from the highly transmissive Biscayne aquifer in the urban corridor between the Everglades and Biscayne Bay. A transient groundwater flow model was developed and calibrated to field data to ensure an acceptable match between simulated and observed values for aquifer heads and net exchange of water between the aquifer and canals. Steady-state conditions were imposed on the transient model and a post-processing backward particle-tracking approach was implemented. Multiple stochastic realizations of horizontal hydraulic conductivity, conductance of canals, and effective porosity were simulated for steady-state conditions representative of dry, average and wet hydrologic conditions to calculate travel-time capture zones of potential source areas of the well fields. Quarry lakes, formed as a product of rock-mining activities, whose effects have previously not been considered in estimation of capture zones, were represented using high hydraulic-conductivity, high-porosity cells, with the bulk hydraulic conductivity of each cell calculated based on estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity, lake depths and aquifer thicknesses. A post-processing adjustment, based on calculated residence times using lake outflows and known lake volumes, was utilized to adjust particle endpoints to account for an estimate of residence-time-based mixing of lakes. Drawdown contours of 0.1 and 0.25 foot were delineated for the dry, average, and wet hydrologic conditions as well. In addition, 95-percent confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the capture zones and drawdown contours to delineate a zone of uncertainty about the median estimates. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate particle travel distances at the Northwest Well Field (NWWF) and West Well Field (WWF) are greatest to the west, towards the Everglades. The man-made quarry lakes substantially affect particle travel distances. In general near the NWWF, the capture zones in areas with lakes were smaller in areal extent than capture zones in areas without lakes. It is possible that contamination could reach the well fields quickly, within 10 days in some cases, if it were introduced into lakes nearest to supply wells, with one of the lakes being only approximately 650 feet from the nearest supply well. In addition to estimating drawdown and travel-time capture zones of 10, 30, 100, and 210 days for the NWWF and the WWF under more recent conditions, two proposed scenarios were evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations: the potential hydrologic effects of proposed Everglades groundwater seepage mitigation and quarry-lake expansion. The seepage mitigation scenario included the addition of two proposed anthropogenic features to the model: (1) an impermeable horizontal flow barrier east of the L-31N canal along the western model boundary between the Everglades and the urban areas of Miami-Dade County, and (2) a recharge canal along the Dade-Broward Levee near the NWWF. Capture zones and drawdown for the WWF were substantially affected by the addition of the barrier, which eliminates flow from the western boundary into the active model domain, shifting the predominant capture zone source area from the west more to the north and south. The 95-percent CI for the 210-day capture zone moved slightly in the NWWF as a result of the recharge canal. The lake-expansion scenario incorporated a proposed increase in the number and surface area of lakes by an additional 25 square miles. This scenario represents a 150-percent increase from the 2004 lake surface area near both well fields, but with the majority of increase proposed near the NWWF. The lake-expansion scenario substantially decreased the extent of the 210-day capture zone of the NWWF, which is limited to the lakes nearest the well field under proposed conditions.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Generation of 3-D hydrostratigraphic zones from dense airborne electromagnetic data to assess groundwater model prediction error

We present a new methodology to combine spatially dense high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data and sparse borehole information to construct multiple plausible geological structures using a stochastic approach. The method developed allows for quantification of the performance of groundwater models built from different geological realizations of structure. Multiple structural realizations are generated using geostatistical Monte Carlo simulations that treat sparse borehole lithological observations as hard data and dense geophysically derived structural probabilities as soft data. Each structural model is used to define 3-D hydrostratigraphical zones of a groundwater model, and the hydraulic parameter values of the zones are estimated by using nonlinear regression to fit hydrological data (hydraulic head and river discharge measurements). Use of the methodology is demonstrated for a synthetic domain having structures of categorical deposits consisting of sand, silt, or clay. It is shown that using dense AEM data with the methodology can significantly improve the estimated accuracy of the sediment distribution as compared to when borehole data are used alone. It is also shown that this use of AEM data can improve the predictive capability of a calibrated groundwater model that uses the geological structures as zones. However, such structural models will always contain errors because even with dense AEM data it is not possible to perfectly resolve the structures of a groundwater system. It is shown that when using such erroneous structures in a groundwater model, they can lead to biased parameter estimates and biased model predictions, therefore impairing the model's predictive capability.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2009

Examining the influence of heterogeneous porosity fields on conservative solute transport

It is widely recognized that groundwater flow and solute transport in natural media are largely controlled by heterogeneities. In the last three decades, many studies have examined the effects of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on flow and transport processes, but there has been much less attention to the influence of heterogeneous porosity fields. In this study, we use porosity and particle size measurements from boreholes at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site (BHRS) to evaluate the importance of characterizing the spatial structure of porosity and grain size data for solute transport modeling. Then we develop synthetic hydraulic conductivity fields based on relatively simple measurements of porosity from borehole logs and grain size distributions from core samples to examine and compare the characteristics of tracer transport through these fields with and without inclusion of porosity heterogeneity. In particular, we develop horizontal 2D realizations based on data from one of the less heterogeneous units at the BHRS to examine effects where spatial variations in hydraulic parameters are not large. The results indicate that the distributions of porosity and the derived hydraulic conductivity in the study unit resemble fractal normal and lognormal fields respectively. We numerically simulate solute transport in stochastic fields and find that spatial variations in porosity have significant effects on the spread of an injected tracer plume including a significant delay in simulated tracer concentration histories.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗
USGS2020

Temporal evolution of measured and simulated infiltration following wildfire in the Colorado Front Range, USA: Shifting thresholds of runoff generation and hydrologic hazards

Destructive flash floods and debris flows are a common menace following wildfire. The restoration of protection provided by forests from post-fire floods and debris flows depends on the recovery of infiltration and attendant reduction of infiltration-excess surface runoff generation. This work examines seven years of post-fire infiltration measurements and temporal relations fit to soil-hydraulic properties from the Colorado Front Range, USA to assess infiltration recovery with increasing time since fire. Point-scale Green-Ampt simulations of infiltration across a full spectrum of rainfall events are used to evaluate infiltration changes and shifts in surface runoff generation thresholds with post-fire temporal recovery. Measured and simulated infiltration generally recovered monotonically with increasing time since fire. This indicates a reduced vulnerability to infiltration-excess runoff generation as time elapses, with the greatest risk in the first two years after the fire. The threshold for infiltration-excess runoff advances with increasing time to rainfall events with higher intensity and greater return intervals; by the third year after wildfire only extreme events (30-100 year recurrence) generate surface runoff and by the fifth and seventh year even extreme rainfall events typically fail to generate surface runoff. Remotely-sensed vegetation indices suggest linked, or at least contemporaneous, recovery of understory vegetation and field-saturated hydraulic conductivity at this field site, suggesting coincident recovery of multiple hillslope properties impacting surface runoff generation. This work indicates that the closing of the window of disturbance after wildfire, relative to infiltration-excess runoff generation and corresponding flash flood and debris flow hazards, relies on coupled assessments of hillslope property recovery and stochasticity of high-intensity rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments using static hillslope properties could fail to predict flash floods and debris flows associated with infrequent extreme rainfall events that strike during the post-fire recovery period when hillslope properties are partially recovered.

Colorado↗
USGS2023

Assessing potential effects of climate change on highway-runoff flows and loads in southern New England by using planning-level space-for-time analyses

Transportation agencies need information about the potential effects of climate change on the volume, quality, and treatment of stormwater to mitigate potential effects of runoff on receiving waters. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project tool and the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model to perform space-for-time stormwater quality analyses. This study indicated that spatial variations in precipitation statistics within and adjacent to southern New England are greater than projected climate-related changes for the centroid of this region. A dilution-factor analysis indicated that highway runoff would become a greater proportion of downstream flows if average event volumes or time between event midpoints increase and would become a smaller proportion of downstream flows if event durations increase. Highway-runoff yield analyses for total phosphorus (TP) indicate that uncertainty in water quality statistics results in variations in long-term average yields from about 1.69 to 7.96 times higher than the lowest TP values simulated. In comparison, variations in precipitation statistics cause yield variations that ranged from 1.41 to 1.76 for the different simulated concentrations. An analysis of stormwater treatment indicated that uncertainties in runoff treatment variables are also larger than the magnitude of climate variations. This study does not question the potentially large climate-related changes in hydrologic and hydraulic variables expected to occur in the foreseeable future. It does indicate that uncertainties in the current data and potential effects of land use change on stormwater quality and treatment variables are larger than the projected effects of climate change.

Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts↗
USGS2018

Hydrology and hydrodynamics on the Sacramento River near the Fremont Weir, California—Implications for juvenile salmon entrainment estimates

Estimates of fish entrainment on the Sacramento River near the Fremont Weir are a critical component in determining the feasibility and design of a proposed notch in the weir to increase access to the Yolo Bypass, a seasonal floodplain of the Sacramento River. Detailed hydrodynamic and velocity measurements were made at a river bend near the Fremont Weir in the winter and spring of 2016 to examine backwater conditions and estimate the hydraulic entrainment zone, a zone where fish would be predicted to be entrained into the notch. Secondary circulation near the river bend was shown to shift the velocity and discharge distributions toward the outside of the bend. Variability in the stage-discharge relation was shown to be the biggest source of uncertainty in determining the location of the hydraulic entrainment zone. Outflow from the Sutter Bypass and high flow on the Feather River resulted in backwater conditions near the Fremont Weir about 25 percent of the time over the 27-year period from April 1990–April 2017. Velocity measurements used to estimate the critical streakline position (the outer edge of the hydraulic entrainment zone) were not made over a sufficient range of conditions to explicitly quantify the variability in the location of the critical streakline. The variability in the critical streakline position was therefore represented stochastically with a random effects model. The estimated position of the critical streakline and the random effects model are input parameters used in a simulation designed to estimate fish entrainment over a 15-year period. The estimates of the critical streakline and likely fish entrainment could be much improved with velocity measurements over a broader range of stage and discharge conditions.

California↗