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Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report

Evaluating detection of temporal trends in long-term freshwater fisheries data to inform future monitoring efforts

Objective Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program was implemented in 2006 to track changes in freshwater fish populations and communities. As part of an evaluation of the program, this study used a simulation framework to assess trend detection for fish abundance and biomass indices and how sampling intensity (number of samples per year) and frequency (number of years) can influence detection of these trends. Methods Using count and weight data from fall electrofishing samples collected between 2006 and 2021 from 21 lakes, trends were simulated for annual mean count and weight over a 10-year period that ranged from −70% to +200%. In all, simulations were performed for seven game fish species and three management-relevant groups (large nongame, nonnative, and prey species). For sampling intensity, data were simulated with a range of sample sizes, from 10 to 40 electrofishing transects or the maximum number available for a given lake. For sampling frequency, data were simulated for different sampling schedules that included sampling 1 year followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (4–5 years of sampling in a 10-year period), sampling two consecutive years followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (6–7 years of sampling in a 10-year period), and sampling the first 5 years only. Results Simulations based on weight and count data yielded similar results, but the effect of sampling frequency and sampling schedule varied by species, management group, and lake. Trend detection was lower and more variable when mean counts and weights of fish in electrofishing samples were low. Overall, at least a 60% increase or 40% decrease over a 10-year period was typically needed for trends in mean weight and count to be detected at least 80% of the time in at least half of the lakes. Increasing sampling intensity did not substantially improve trend detection for lower-magnitude changes, but reducing sample intensity to a minimum of 10 electrofishing transects per year would have a large negative effect on trend detection in almost all lakes. Detection of trends improved as the number of years sampled increased, but ideally, sampling should be spaced throughout the entire 10-year period to capture the full magnitude of change. Sampling every year generally resulted in better trend detection and for many species and groups was the only sampling schedule that resulted in all study lakes achieving the 80% target detection level. Of the alternative schedules considered, those involving 2 years of consecutive sampling outperformed those with only 1 year of sampling followed by a 1- or 2-year break. Conclusions Relatively large changes in mean count and weight were required to detect trends over a 10-year period, but there was no clear advantage of using count or weight data for monitoring purposes. Further, study results support the current sampling intensity, but trend detection is optimized at higher mean catch and weight values. Although sampling every year is ideal, an alternative schedule involving sampling two consecutive years with 1- or 2-year breaks could be considered in certain situations. These results will be important for informing future decisions regarding Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program and other monitoring initiatives.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management.

Sources of bias in applying close-kin mark–recapture to terrestrial game species with different life histories

Close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a method analogous to traditional mark–recapture but without requiring recapture of individuals. Instead, multilocus genotypes (genetic marks) are used to identify related individuals in one or more sampling occasions, which enables the opportunistic use of samples from harvested wildlife. To apply the method accurately, it is important to build appropriate CKMR models that do not violate assumptions linked to the species’ and population's biology and sampling methods. In this study, we evaluated the implications of fitting overly simplistic CKMR models to populations with complex reproductive success dynamics or selective sampling. We used forward-in-time, individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of CKMR abundance and survival estimates in species with different longevities, mating systems, and sampling strategies. Simulated populations approximated a range of life histories among game species of North America with lethal sampling to evaluate the potential of using harvested samples to estimate population size. Our simulations show that CKMR can yield nontrivial biases in both survival and abundance estimates, unless influential life history traits and selective sampling are explicitly accounted for in the modeling framework. The number of kin pairs observed in the sample, in combination with the type of kinship used in the model (parent–offspring pairs and/or half-sibling pairs), can affect the precision and/or accuracy of the estimates. CKMR is a promising method that will likely see an increasing number of applications in the field as costs of genetic analysis continue to decline. Our work highlights the importance of applying population-specific CKMR models that consider relevant demographic parameters, individual covariates, and the protocol through which individuals were sampled.

Ecology

Unintended effects of electrofishing on nongame fishes

Most studies of injury associated with electrofishing have focused on game fishes, but few have given attention to cohabiting small nongame species. Under controlled laboratory conditions, we subjected small nongame cyprinids, ictalurids, and percids to a wide range of voltages and waveforms to examine potential harmful effects. Fish were treated with power levels distributed uniformly between the thresholds required to immobilize game fish and also were subjected multiple times to those thresholds to simulate the range of conditions that might exist in a heterogeneous electrical field formed during electrofishing in field situations. Across waveforms and species, the incidence of hemorrhages averaged 2% (range = 0–20%), the incidence of spinal injuries averaged 6% (range = 0–30%), and mortality averaged 16% (range = 0–90%). Continuous DC was generally less harmful than pulsed-DC waveforms; hemorrhages and spinal injuries tended to increase with high pulse frequencies, and mortalities tended to increase with low pulse frequencies. Ambiguities in the results were apparent, suggesting that some species may experience extensive harm, whereas others may not. Given the potential to harm numerically small populations and populations of imperiled species, we suggest (1) expanded efforts to overcome the power limitations that prevent effective use of continuous-DC electrofishing in many field situations and (2) pilot studies at geographic locations where numerically small populations of nongame species may be a concern.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

The killing efficiency of soft iron shot

A cooperative research effort between the ammunition industry and the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife is aimed at finding a suitable non-toxic substitute for lead shot. A contract study by an independent research organization evaluated ways of coating or detoxifying lead shot or replacing it with another metal. As a result of that study, the only promising candidate is soft iron. Previous tests of hard iron shot had suggested that its killing effectiveness was poor at longer ranges due to the lower density. In addition, its hardness caused excessive damage to shotgun barrels. A unique, automated shooting facility was constructed at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center to test the killing effectiveness of soft iron shot under controlled conditions. Tethered game-farm mallards were transported across a shooting point in a manner simulating free flight. A microswitch triggered a mounted shotgun so that each shot was 'perfect.' A soft iron shot, in Number 4 size, was produced by the ammunition industry and loaded in 12-gauge shells to give optimum ballistic performance. Commercial loads of lead shot in both Number 4 and Number 6 size were used for comparison. A total of 2,010 ducks were shot at ranges of 30 to 65 yards and at broadside and head-on angles in a statistically designed procedure. The following data were recorded for each duck: time until death, broken wing or leg bones, and number of embedded shot. Those ducks not killed outright were held for 10 days. From these data, ducks were categorized as 'probably bagged,' 'probably lost cripples,' or survivors. The test revealed that the killing effectiveness of this soft iron shot was superior to its anticipated performance and close to that obtained with commercial lead loads containing an equal number of pellets. Bagging a duck, in terms of rapid death or broken wing, was primarily dependent on the probability of a shot striking that vital area, and therefore a function of range. There was no indication that iron shot would result in greater crippling loss. Despite the apparent effectiveness of this iron shot, transition to its use in waterfowl hunting is not now possible. The sample used for this test was produced by a laboratory procedure that is unsuitable for manufacture. There is no process for producing soft iron shot in the quantities needed. Industry is doing its best to resolve this problem.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na

South Fork Shenandoah River habitat-flow modeling to determine ecological and recreational characteristics during low-flow periods

The ecological habitat requirements of aquatic organisms and recreational streamflow requirements of the South Fork Shenandoah River were investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Central Shenandoah Valley Planning District Commission, the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission, and Virginia Commonwealth University. Physical habitat simulation modeling was conducted to examine flow as a major determinant of physical habitat availability and recreation suitability using field-collected hydraulic habitat variables such as water depth, water velocity, and substrate characteristics. Fish habitat-suitability criteria specific to the South Fork Shenandoah River were developed for sub-adult and adult smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), juvenile and sub-adult redbreast sunfish (Lepomis auritus), spotfin or satinfin shiner (Cyprinella spp), margined madtom (Noturus insignis),and river chub (Nocomis micropogon). Historic streamflow statistics for the summer low-flow period during July, August, and September were used as benchmark low-flow conditions and compared to habitat simulation results and water-withdrawal scenarios based on 2005 withdrawal data. To examine habitat and recreation characteristics during droughts, daily fish habitat or recreation suitability values were simulated for 2002 and other selected drought years. Recreation suitability during droughts was extremely low, because the modeling demonstrated that suitable conditions occur when the streamflows are greater than the 50th percentile flow for July, August, and September. Habitat availability for fish is generally at a maximum when streamflows are between the 75th and 25th percentile flows for July, August, and September. Time-series results for drought years, such as 2002, showed that extreme low-flow conditions less than the 5th percentile of flow for July, August, and September corresponded to below-normal habitat availability for both game and nongame fish in the upper section of the river. For the middle section near Luray, margined madtom and river chub habitat area were below normal, whereas adult and sub-adult smallmouth bass habitat area remained near the median expected available habitat. In the lower section near Front Royal, time-series results for adult smallmouth bass, sub-adult smallmouth bass, and margined madtom habitat were below normal when streamflows were below the 10th percentile flow for July, August, and September. All other species of fish had habitat availability within the normal range for July, August, and September. Water-conservation scenarios representing a 50 percent water-withdrawal reduction resulted in game fish habitat availability within the normal range for habitat in upper and middle river sections, instead of below normal conditions which were observed during the 2002 drought. The 50 percent water-withdrawal reduction had no measurable effect on recreation. For nongame fish such as river chub, a 20 percent withdrawal reduction resulted in habitat availability within the normal range for habitat in the upper and middle river sections. Increased water-use scenarios representing a 5 percent increase in water withdrawals resulted in a slight reduction in habitat availability; however, increased withdrawals of 20 and 50 percent resulted in habitat availability substantially less than the 25th habitat percentile, or below normal. Habitat reductions were more pronounced when flows were lower than the 10th percentile flow for July, August, and September. The results show that for normal or wet years, increased water withdrawals are not likely to correspond with extensive habitat loss for game fish or nongame fish. During drought years, however, a 20 to 50 percent increase in water withdrawals may result in below normal habitat availability for game fish throughout the river and nongame fish in the upper and middle sections of the river. These simulations of rare historic drought conditions, such as those observed in 2002, serve as a baseline for development of ecological flow thresholds for drought planning.

Virginia;West Virginia

Modeling potential impacts of the Garrison Diversion Unit project on Sand Lake and Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuges: a feasibility analysis

The Garrison Diversion Unit (GDU) of the Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin program was authorized in 1965, with the purpose of diverting Missouri River water to the James River for irrigation, municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife habitat, recreation, and flood control. The project was reauthorized in 1986, with the specification that comprehensive studies be conducted to address a variety of issues. One of these ongoing studies addresses potential impacts of GDU construction and operation on lands of the National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) system, including Arrowwood and Sand Lake Refuges (the Refuges) on the James River. A number of concerns at these Refuges have been identified; the primary concerns addressed in this report include increased winter return flows, which would limit control of rough fish; increased turbidity during project construction, which would decrease production of sago pondweed; and increased water level fluctuations in the late spring and early summer, which would destroy the nests of some over-water nesting birds. The facilitated workshop described in this report was conducted February 18-20, 1987, under the joint sponsorship of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. The primary objectives of the workshop were to evaluate the feasibility of using simulation modeling techniques to estimate GDU impacts on Arrowwood and Sand Lake Refuges and to suggest enhancements to the James River Refuge monitoring program. The workshop was structured around the formulation of four submodels: a Hydrology and Water Quality submodel to simulate changes in Refuge pool elevations, turnover rates, and water quality parameters (e.g., total dissolved solids, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, water temperature, pesticides) due to GDU construction and operation; a Vegetation submodel to simulate concomitant changes in wetland communities (e.g., sago pondweed, wet meadows, deep and shallow marsh); a Fish submodel to estimate changes in abundance or biomass of rough fish (carp, buffalo) and sportfish (northern pike); and a Wildlife submodel to calculate indices of waterfowl abundance or habitat suitability (e.g., for mallards, western grebes, migrating diving ducks, white-faced ibis, egrets, over-water nesters). Submodels considered weekly to monthly changes in pools within a Refuge over a time horizon of 30-50 years. Based on workshop discussions and past experience with impact analysis modeling, a phased modeling approach was recommended for the James River Refuges analysis. The first phase would involve two modeling efforts. The existing Sand Lake hydrology model, and a similar one developed for Arrowwood NWR, would be validated and used to predict changes on pool elevations and winter inflows to each pool for a variety of GDU alternatives. Outputs from simulations would then be evaluated in terms of potential fish and wildlife impacts. For example, the models could generate indices comparing the magnitude and timing of winter inflows for pre- and postproject conditions; fisheries biologists could then use these indices to better quantify their concerns relative to potential changes in the frequency of rough-fish control. The other modeling effort in the first phase would involve developing a sago pondweed growth model to integrate Refuge monitoring data and existing literature and perhaps to address some questions concerning turbidity impacts. A second phase of simulation modeling would be undertaken only if the initial analyses of hydrologic outputs indicated significant potential problems and if monitoring and research projects had clarified some of the biological and physical processes that cannot be modeled reliably at the present time (e.g., resuspension of sediments by carp, immigration and winter mortality of fish, loss of waterfowl nests due to wave action). The second phase would attempt to develop an integrated impact assessment model. In order to address some of the biological and physical processes that presently are not well understood, a number of studies and enhancements to the Refuge monitoring program were suggested. The Hydrology and Water Quality workgroup recommended increasing turbidity and dissolved oxygen sampling, dropping expensive analysis of some trace elements, adding more pesticide analysis (including some biological monitoring), and developing better area-capacity data for the Sand Lake hydrology model. The Vegetation workgroup suggested expanding the number of monitoring stations, monitoring photosynthetically active radiation by depth, and modifying the biomass sampling procedure and schedule. Also suggested were additional analyses of existing Refuge monitoring data and additional field studies concerning sago growth under a variety of environmental conditions and effects of rough fish density on sago. A careful examination of Refuge narrative reports was recommended by the Fish workgroup to characterize conditions that led to various rates of winter-kill. Monitoring enhancement related to a better understanding of fish population dynamics included increasing dissolved oxygen monitoring, continuing present monitoring of fish movement upstream from Jamestown Reservoir into Arrowwood NWR, initiating similar efforts for upstream movement into Sand Lake NWR and downstream movements into both Refuges, and augmenting the present gillnetting program (or replacing it) with sampling for population and age/size structure estimates. The Wildlife workgroup suggested estimating the relative density of mallard nests in over-water and wet meadow nesting areas, estimating the number of western grebe nests lost due to wave action, delineating wet meadows on the Refuge vegetation maps, estimating annual tuber consumption by birds, and monitoring insect/macroinvertebrate abundance. The workgroup also suggested research studies to better understand the relationships between food supplies and the growth and survival of ducklings and young grebes. the workshop discussions also helped identify some suggestions for modifying project features that, if feasible from an engineering and operational standpoint, would reduce impacts on Refuge lands. These suggestions included: designing drains with control structures or small "reregulation" reservoirs to hold winter return flows that might adversely affect rough fish control, spreading construction activities over a number of years to reduce potential impacts of turbidity on sago pondweed in any single year, scheduling construction to occur after the spring sprouting and elongation growth stages to reduce impacts on sago pondweed, and installing "quick acting" control structures at Arrowwood NWR to reduce pool level fluctuations that might destroy nests of some over-water nesting waterfowl.

Report

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Beaver Lake, Arkansas, 1994-1995

The tailwaters of Beaver Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of significant economic yield in northwestern Arkansas. The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Beaver Lake dam to increase the amount of fishable waters downstream. Information is needed to assess the impact of additional minimum flows on temperature and dissolved-oxygen qualities of reservoir water above the dam and the release water. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic, thermal and dissolved-oxygen model was developed and calibrated for Beaver Lake, Arkansas. The model simulates surface-water elevation, currents, heat transport and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the impacts of proposed increases in minimum flows from 1.76 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 3.85 cubic meters per second (the additional minimum flow). Simulations included assessing (1) the impact of additional minimum flows on tailwater temperature and dissolved-oxygen quality and (2) increasing initial water-surface elevation 0.5 meter and assessing the impact of additional minimum flow on tailwater temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The additional minimum flow simulation (without increasing initial pool elevation) appeared to increase the water temperature (<0.9 degrees Celsius) and decrease dissolved oxygen concentration (<2.2 milligrams per liter) in the outflow discharge. Conversely, the additional minimum flow plus initial increase in pool elevation (0.5 meter) simulation appeared to decrease outflow water temperature (0.5 degrees Celsius) and increase dissolved oxygen concentration (<1.2 milligrams per liter) through time. However, results from both minimum flow scenarios for both water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were within the boundaries or similar to the error between measured and simulated water column profile values.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Evaluation of harvest and information needs for North American sea ducks

Wildlife managers routinely seek to establish sustainable limits of sport harvest or other regulated forms of take while confronted with considerable uncertainty. A growing body of ecological research focuses on methods to describe and account for uncertainty in management decision-making and to prioritize research and monitoring investments to reduce the most influential uncertainties. We used simulation methods incorporating measures of demographic uncertainty to evaluate risk of overharvest and prioritize information needs for North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini ). Sea ducks are popular game birds in North America, yet they are poorly monitored and their population dynamics are poorly understood relative to other North American waterfowl. There have been few attempts to assess the sustainability of harvest of North American sea ducks, and no formal harvest strategy exists in the U.S. or Canada to guide management. The popularity of sea duck hunting, extended hunting opportunity for some populations (i.e., special seasons and/or bag limits), and population declines have led to concern about potential overharvest. We used Monte Carlo simulation to contrast estimates of allowable harvest and observed harvest and assess risk of overharvest for 7 populations of North American sea ducks: the American subspecies of common eider ( Somateria mollissima dresseri ), eastern and western populations of black scoter ( Melanitta americana ) and surf scoter ( M . perspicillata ), and continental populations of white-winged scoter ( M . fusca ) and long-tailed duck ( Clangula hyemalis ). We combined information from empirical studies and the opinions of experts through formal elicitation to create probability distributions reflecting uncertainty in the individual demographic parameters used in this assessment. Estimates of maximum growth ( r max ), and therefore of allowable harvest, were highly uncertain for all populations. Long-tailed duck and American common eider appeared to be at high risk of overharvest (i.e., observed harvest < allowable harvest in 5–7% and 19–26% of simulations, respectively depending on the functional form of density dependence), whereas the other populations appeared to be at moderate risk to low risk (observed harvest < allowable harvest in 22–68% of simulations, again conditional on the form of density dependence). We also evaluated the sensitivity of the difference between allowable and observed harvest estimates to uncertainty in individual demographic parameters to prioritize information needs. We found that uncertainty in overall fecundity had more influence on comparisons of allowable and observed harvest than adult survival or observed harvest for all species except long-tailed duck. Although adult survival was characterized by less uncertainty than individual components of fecundity, it was identified as a high priority information need given the sensitivity of growth rate and allowable harvest to this parameter. Uncertainty about population size was influential in the comparison of observed and allowable harvest for 5 of the 6 populations where it factored into the assessment. While this assessment highlights a high degree of uncertainty in allowable harvest, it provides a framework for integration of improved data from future research and monitoring. It could also serve as the basis for harvest strategy development as management objectives and regulatory alternatives are specified by the management community.

PLoS ONE

Persistence of pathogenic prion protein during simulated wastewater treatment processes

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs, prion diseases) are a class of fatal neurodegenerative diseases affecting a variety of mammalian species including humans. A misfolded form of the prion protein (PrP TSE) is the major, if not sole, component of the infectious agent. Prions are highly resistant to degradation and to many disinfection procedures suggesting that, if prions enter wastewater treatment systems through sewers and/or septic systems (e.g., from slaughterhouses, necropsy laboratories, rural meat processors, private game dressing) or through leachate from landfills that have received TSE-contaminated material, prions could survive conventional wastewater treatment Here, we report the results of experiments examining the partitioning and persistence of PrPTSE during simulated wastewater treatment processes including activated and mesophilic anaerobic sludge digestion. Incubation with activated sludge did not result in significant PrPTSE degradation. PrPTSE and prion infectivity partitioned strongly to activated sludge solids and are expected to enter biosolids treatment processes. A large fraction of PrPTSE survived simulated mesophilic anaerobic sludge digestion. The small reduction in recoverable PrPTSE after 20-d anaerobic sludge digestion appeared attributable to a combination of declining extractability with time and microbial degradation. Our results suggest that if prions were to enter municipal wastewater treatment systems, most would partition to activated sludge solids, survive mesophilic anaerobic digestion, and be present in treated biosolids. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Norfork Lake, Arkansas, 1994-1995

Outflow from Norfork Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of significant economic yield in north-central Arkansas and south-central Missouri. The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Norfork Lake dam to increase the amount of fishable waters downstream. Information is needed to assess the impact of increased minimum flows on temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentrations of reservoir water and the outflow. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic, temperature, and dissolved-oxygen model was developed and calibrated for Norfork Lake, located on the Arkansas-Missouri State line. The model simulates water-surface elevation, heat transport, and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the impacts of proposed increases in minimum flow from 1.6 cubic meter per second (the existing minimum flow) to 8.5 cubic meters per second (the increased minimum flow). Simulations included assessing the impact of (1) increased minimum flows and (2) increased minimum flows with increased water-surface elevation of 1.1 meter in Norfork Lake on outflow temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The increased minimum flow simulation (without increasing initial water-surface elevation) appeared to increase the water temperature and decrease dissolved-oxygen concentration in the outflow. Conversely, the increased minimum flow and initial increase in water-surface elevation (1.1 meter) simulation appeared to decrease outflow water temperature and increase dissolved-oxygen concentration through time. However, results from both scenarios for water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration were within the boundaries or similar to the error between measured and simulated water column profile values.

Arkansas

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Bull Shoals Lake, Arkansas, 1994-1995

Outflow from Bull Shoals Lake and other White River reservoirs supports a cold-water trout fishery of substantial economic yield in north-central Arkansas and south-central Missouri. The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Bull Shoals Lake dam to increase the amount of fishable waters downstream. Information is needed to assess the impact of increased minimum flows on temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentrations of reservoir water and the outflow.A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic, temperature, and dissolved-oxygen model was developed and calibrated for Bull Shoals Lake, located on the Arkansas-Missouri State line. The model simulates water-surface elevation, heat transport, and dissolved- oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the impacts of proposed increases in minimum flow from 4.6 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 22.6 cubic meters per second (the increased minimum flow). Simulations included assessing the impact of (1) increased minimum flows and (2) increased minimum flows with increased initial water-surface elevation of 1.5 meters in Bull Shoals Lake on outflow temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations.The increased minimum flow simulation (without increasing initial water-surface elevation) increased the water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration in the outflow. Conversely, the increased minimum flow and increased initial water-surface elevation (1.5 meters) simulation decreased outflow water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration through time. However, results from both scenarios for water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration were within the boundaries of the error between measured and simulated water column profile values.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Trends in streamflow characteristics of selected sites in the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and Lower Platte River Basins, Eastern Nebraska, 1928-2004, and evaluation of streamflows in relation to instream-flow criteria, 1953-2004

The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources approved instream-flow appropriations on the Platte River to maintain fish communities, whooping crane roost habitat, and wet meadows used by several wild bird species. In the lower Platte River region, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission owns an appropriation filed to maintain streamflow for fish communities between the Platte River confluence with the Elkhorn River and the mouth of the Platte River. Because Elkhorn River flow is an integral part of the flow in the reach addressed by this appropriation, the Upper Elkhorn and Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources Districts are involved in overall management of anthropogenic effects on the availability of surface water for instream requirements. The Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) and other estimation methodologies were used previously to determine instream requirements for Platte River biota, which led to the filing of five water appropriations applications with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources in 1993 by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission. One of these requested instream-flow appropriations of 3,700 cubic feet per second was for the reach from the Elkhorn River to the mouth of the Platte River. Four appropriations were granted with modifications in 1998, by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources. Daily streamflow data for the periods of record were summarized for 17 streamflow-gaging stations in Nebraska to evaluate streamflow characteristics, including low-flow intervals for consecutive durations of 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, and 183 days. Temporal trends in selected streamflow statistics were not adjusted for variability in precipitation. Results indicated significant positive temporal trends in annual flow for the period of record at eight streamflow-gaging stations - Platte River near Duncan (06774000), Platte River at North Bend (06796000), Elkhorn River at Neligh (06798500), Logan Creek near Uehling (06799500), Maple Creek near Nickerson (06800000), Elkhorn River at Waterloo (06800500), Salt Creek at Greenwood (06803555), and Platte River at Louisville (06805500). In general, sites in the Elkhorn River Basin upstream from Norfolk showed fewer significant trends than did sites downstream from Norfolk and sites in the Platte River and Salt Creek basins, where trends in low flows also were positive. Historical Platte River streamflow records for the streamflow-gaging station at Louisville, Nebraska, were used to determine the number of days per water year (Sept. 30 to Oct. 1) when flows failed to satisfy the minimum criteria of the instream-flow appropriation prior to its filing in 1993. Before 1993, the median number of days the criteria were not satisfied was about 120 days per water year. During 1993 through 2004, daily mean flows at Louisville, Nebraska, have failed to satisfy the criteria for 638 days total (median value equals 21.5 days per year). Most of these low-flow intervals occurred in summer through early fall. For water years 1953 through 2004, of the discrete intervals when flow was less that the criteria levels, 61 percent were 3 days or greater in duration, and 38 percent were 7 days or greater in duration. The median duration of intervals of flow less than the criteria levels was 4 consecutive days during 1953 through 2004.

Nebraska

Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

Report

Models for linking hunter retention and recruitment to regulations and game populations

Introduction: Declining hunter populations across North America present wildlife management agencies with the prospect of declining revenues for wildlife conservation and management and the need for new tools to evaluate management strategies and predict future status of game species and hunters. Methods: Here we present a modeling framework and potential decision support tool for managers to link future hunter population dynamics to regulatory restrictiveness, prey abundance, and harvest success. Our hunter model is parameterized based on the authors’ judgment and can be used for demonstration purposes. We simulated three scenarios of restricted harvest, moderate harvest and liberal harvest. Results: Our simulations show that even though liberal harvest predicts higher cumulative license sales revenue, it corresponds with a slight decline in buck abundance over 10 years. In contrast, highly restrictive harvest corresponds with deer population growth, but a near collapse of hunter populations. Our model demonstrates that managers might face tradeoffs between managing for deer population abundance and hunting revenue and clarifies how these factors might affect decision making. Discussion: The utility of our tool would be dependent on accessing data on hunter retention and recruitment, however, the strength of our paper is in highlighting a new way of thinking about and potentially addressing these potential tradeoffs. Further, these simulations demonstrate that these tools could be used to evaluate management strategies but also highlight uncertainties, establish research priorities, and potentially design an adaptive management framework.

Alabama

Map showing areas of visible land disturbances caused by two military training operations in the Mojave Desert, California

This map shows areas that retain visible land disturbances produced during two military armored-vehicle training operations in the Mojave Desert, California. The map documents the lasting visual effects these operations have on this arid region and provides a data base for monitoring changes in the extent of visual disturbances in the future. The first training operation was initiated in April 1942, by General George S. Patton, Jr., to ready armored-vehicle divisions for desert warfare in North Africa (Meller, 1946). The Desert Training Center (DTC) encompassed 17,500 mi 2 of arid lands in California, Nevada, and Arizona, and for two years, more than one million soldiers trained under simulated battle conditions. Troops were stationed at 12 main base camps, each housing as many as 15,000 soldiers in canvas tents. From these camps, armored units would radiate into the broad valleys of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. Thousands of tanks, trucks, jeeps, and aircraft were used in the war games. When the DTC was inactivated in May 1944, most man-made structures were removed or buried by the U.S. Army. The second operation, called Operation Desert Strike, was held for two weeks in May 1964 (Moenk, 1964) in the same general area as the DTC. However, no temporary camps were established, and the tanks used were much larger than their World War II counterparts. Over 89,000 troops participated in this exercise. Land disturbances caused by these training exercises are still evident today throughout the designated training areas (Lathrop, 1983; Prose, 1985; Prose and Metzger, 1985). The World War II base-camp locations are easily identified because the networks of dirt roads are still used by campers, hunters, artifact seekers, and other visitors. Vehicle trails and single tracks remain on many relatively stable surfaces and are most conspicuous on surfaces composed of a veneer of stones (desert pavement).

California

Simulation of streamflow using a multidimensional flow model for white sturgeon habitat, Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho – Supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5230

During 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed, calibrated, and validated a multidimensional flow model for simulating streamflow in the white sturgeon spawning habitat of the Kootenai River in Idaho. The model was developed as a tool to aid understanding of the physical factors affecting quality and quantity of spawning and rearing habitat used by the endangered white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and for assessing the feasibility of various habitat-enhancement scenarios to re-establish recruitment of white sturgeon. At the request of the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, the USGS extended the two-dimensional flow model developed in 2005 into a braided reach upstream of the current white sturgeon spawning reach. Many scientists consider the braided reach a suitable substrate with adequate streamflow velocities for re-establishing recruitment of white sturgeon. The 2005 model was extended upstream to help assess the feasibility of various strategies to encourage white sturgeon to spawn in the reach. At the request of the Idaho Department of Fish and Game, the USGS also extended the two-dimensional flow model several kilometers downstream of the white sturgeon spawning reach. This modified model can quantify the physical characteristics of a reach that white sturgeon pass through as they swim upstream from Kootenay Lake to the spawning reach. The USGS Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System was used for the 2005 modeling effort and for this subsequent modeling effort. This report describes the model applications and limitations, presents the results of a few simple simulations, and demonstrates how the model can be used to link physical characteristics of streamflow to the location of white sturgeon spawning events during 1994-2001. Model simulations also were used to report on the length and percentage of longitudinal profiles that met the minimum criteria during May and June 2006 and 2007 as stipulated in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Biological Opinion.

Idaho