Ecology and management of ticks and lyme disease at Fire Island National Seashore and selected eastern National Parks
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Scientific Monograph↗
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Water, water everywhere, but every drop unique: Emerging challenges in the science to understand the role of contaminants in management of drinking water supplies
The protection and management of water resources continues to be challenged by multiple and ongoing factors such as shifts in demographic, social, economic, and public health requirements. Physical limitations placed on access to potable supplies include natural and human-caused factors such as aquifer depletion, aging infrastructure, saltwater intrusion, floods, and drought. These factors, although varying in magnitude, spatial extent, and timing, can exacerbate the potential for contaminants of concern (CECs) to be present in sources of drinking water, infrastructure, premise plumbing and associated tap water. This monograph examines how current and emerging scientific efforts and technologies increase our understanding of the range of CECs and drinking water issues facing current and future populations. It is not intended to be read in one sitting, but is instead a starting point for scientists wanting to learn more about the issues surrounding CECs. This text discusses the topical evolution CECs over time (Section 1), improvements in measuring chemical and microbial CECs, through both analysis of concentration and toxicity (Section 2) and modeling CEC exposure and fate (Section 3), forms of treatment effective at removing chemical and microbial CECs (Section 4), and potential for human health impacts from exposure to CECs (Section 5). The paper concludes with how changes to water quantity, both scarcity and surpluses, could affect water quality (Section 6). Taken together, these sections document the past 25 years of CEC research and the regulatory response to these contaminants, the current work to identify and monitor CECs and mitigate exposure, and the challenges facing the future.
GeoHealth↗
Abstracting and indexing guide
These instructions have been prepared for those who abstract and index scientific and technical documents for the Water Resources Scientific Information Center (WRSIC). With the recent publication growth in all fields, information centers have undertaken the task of keeping the various scientific communities aware of current and past developments. An abstract with carefully selected index terms offers the user of WRSIC services a more rapid means for deciding whether a document is pertinent to his needs and professional interests, thus saving him the time necessary to scan the complete work. These means also provide WRSIC with a document representation or surrogate which is more easily stored and manipulated to produce various services. Authors are asked to accept the responsibility for preparing abstracts of their own papers to facilitate quick evaluation, announcement, and dissemination to the scientific community.
Monograph↗
Electron microprobe analyses of glasses from Kīlauea tephra units, Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii
This report presents approximately 2,100 glass analyses from three tephra units of Kīlauea Volcano: the Keanakākoʻi Tephra, the Kulanaokuaiki Tephra, and the Pāhala Ash. It also includes some new analyses obtained as part of a re-evaluation of the MgO contents of glasses in two of the three original datasets; this re-evaluation was conducted to improve the consistency of glass MgO contents among the three datasets. The glass data are a principal focus of Helz and others (in press), which will appear in the AGU Monograph Hawaiian Volcanoes—From Source to Surface. The report is intended to support this publication, in addition to making the data available to the scientific community.
Hawai'i↗
Birds of the Colorado Valley: A repository of scientific and popular information concerning North American ornithology: Part first, Passeres to Laniidæ, bibliographic appendix, seventy illustrations
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Monograph↗
Whooping Cranes past and present
The Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ), endemic to North America, is the rarest of all crane species. It is believed that in the early 1800s, the Whooping Crane was widespread in North America, though it was never very abundant. Whooping Crane numbers decreased precipitously as westward migration of Euro-American settlers converted prairie to cropland and the birds were hunted. By the early 1940s the total population was as low as 21 individuals; the migratory Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population, from which all extant Whooping Cranes are descended, dwindled to 16 in 1941. The threat of extinction was very real. These dire circumstances excited the interest of ornithologists and conservationists in the United States and Canada, and much has been accomplished since to conserve the species. To describe the historical and ongoing conservation activities for Whooping Cranes, we distinguish two eras of Whooping Crane Conservation: before 1950 and after 1950. The first era was characterized by publicizing the plight of the Whooping Crane and halting hunting and habitat destruction. The second era, continuing to the present, has been characterized by development of information about cranes through scientific study, conservation efforts of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, protection of the species under the Endangered Species Act in the United States and the Species at Risk Act in Canada, habitat protection, and reintroduction of new populations of Whooping Cranes. Publication of the monograph, The Whooping Crane by Robert Porter Allen, in 1952 stimulated much of the work of the second era, and still stands as the definitive work on the biology of Whooping Cranes. The remnant Aransas Wood Buffalo Population, which is crucial to species recovery, has grown to over 430 birds as of winter 2016–17. Four reintroduced populations were started in the second era; two are currently active efforts (the Eastern Migratory population and the Louisiana Nonmigratory Population), although neither population is selfsustaining. This volume gathers together the current scientific information about Whooping Cranes and the experiences of various reintroduction and management operations, to provide a baseline from which a third era of Whooping Crane conservation may be launched.
Book chapter↗
A guide to Bayesian model checking for ecologists
Checking that models adequately represent data is an essential component of applied statistical inference. Ecologists increasingly use hierarchical Bayesian statistical models in their research. The appeal of this modeling paradigm is undeniable, as researchers can build and fit models that embody complex ecological processes while simultaneously accounting for observation error. However, ecologists tend to be less focused on checking model assumptions and assessing potential lack of fit when applying Bayesian methods than when applying more traditional modes of inference such as maximum likelihood. There are also multiple ways of assessing the fit of Bayesian models, each of which has strengths and weaknesses. For instance, Bayesian P values are relatively easy to compute, but are well known to be conservative, producing P values biased toward 0.5. Alternatively, lesser known approaches to model checking, such as prior predictive checks, cross‐validation probability integral transforms, and pivot discrepancy measures may produce more accurate characterizations of goodness‐of‐fit but are not as well known to ecologists. In addition, a suite of visual and targeted diagnostics can be used to examine violations of different model assumptions and lack of fit at different levels of the modeling hierarchy, and to check for residual temporal or spatial autocorrelation. In this review, we synthesize existing literature to guide ecologists through the many available options for Bayesian model checking. We illustrate methods and procedures with several ecological case studies including (1) analysis of simulated spatiotemporal count data, (2) N‐mixture models for estimating abundance of sea otters from an aircraft, and (3) hidden Markov modeling to describe attendance patterns of California sea lion mothers on a rookery. We find that commonly used procedures based on posterior predictive P values detect extreme model inadequacy, but often do not detect more subtle cases of lack of fit. Tests based on cross‐validation and pivot discrepancy measures (including the “sampled predictive P value”) appear to be better suited to model checking and to have better overall statistical performance. We conclude that model checking is necessary to ensure that scientific inference is well founded. As an essential component of scientific discovery, it should accompany most Bayesian analyses presented in the literature.
Ecological Monographs↗
Resident research associateships, postdoctoral research awards 1989: opportunities for research at the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior
The scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey are engaged in a wide range of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, hydrologic, and cartographic programs, including the application of computer science to them. These programs offer exciting possibilities for scientific achievement and professional growth to young scientists through participation as Research Associates.
Monograph↗
Review and update of the applications of organic petrology: Part 1, geological applications
Organic petrology developed as coal petrology at the beginning of the 20th century dedicated mainly to the study of coals because of their utilization in industry. Coal petrology was then considered a branch of coal science. Later, with the development of specialized nomenclature, classification of coal components, and the standardization and improvement of analytical (microscopical) methods, this discipline expanded in interests and name, becoming organic petrology. Organic petrology carries a broader context, being as well a tool applied in the study of dispersed organic matter in sedimentary rocks due to its importance in exploration for fossil fuel resources. At present, organic petrology is a discipline widely recognized for its role in fundamental and applied research with respect to both coal utilization and in geosciences. Throughout the 20th century several important monographs have been published on the discipline of organic petrology, including “Stach's textbook of coal petrology” (1st edition 1935, 2nd 1975, 3rd 1982), updated as the more general “Organic petrology” by Taylor et al. (1998). More recently, the text “Applied coal petrology: the role of petrology in coal utilization” was published by Suárez-Ruiz and Crelling (2008). This review is the first in a two-part review series that describes and updates the role of organic petrology in geosciences. A second part complementing this one and focused on the applications of organic petrology to other scientific fields will follow.
International Journal of Coal Geology↗
Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery performance according to the literature
Introduction The need to increase the efficiency of oil recovery and environmental concerns are bringing to prominence the use of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a tertiary recovery agent. Assessment of the impact of flooding with CO 2 all eligible reservoirs in the United States not yet undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) requires making the best possible use of the experience gained in 40 years of applications. Review of the publicly available literature has located relevant CO 2 -EOR information for 53 units (fields, reservoirs, pilot areas) in the United States and 17 abroad. As the world simultaneously faces an increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere and a higher demand for fossil fuels, the CO 2 -EOR process continues to gain popularity for its efficiency as a tertiary recovery agent and for the potential for having some CO 2 trapped in the subsurface as an unintended consequence of the enhanced production (Advanced Resources International and Melzer Consulting, 2009). More extensive application of CO 2 -EOR worldwide, however, is not making it significantly easier to predict the exact outcome of the CO 2 flooding in new reservoirs. The standard approach to examine and manage risks is to analyze the intended target by conducting laboratory work, running simulation models, and, finally, gaining field experience with a pilot test. This approach, though, is not always possible. For example, assessment of the potential of CO 2 -EOR at the national level in a vast country such as the United States requires making forecasts based on information already available. Although many studies are proprietary, the published literature has provided reviews of CO 2 -EOR projects. Yet, there is always interest in updating reports and analyzing the information under new perspectives. Brock and Bryan (1989) described results obtained during the earlier days of CO 2 -EOR from 1972 to 1987. Most of the recovery predictions, however, were based on intended injections of 30 percent the size of the reservoir’s hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV), and the predictions in most cases badly missed the actual recoveries because of the embryonic state of tertiary recovery in general and CO 2 flooding in particular at the time. Brock and Bryan (1989), for example, reported for the Weber Sandstone in the Rangely oil field in Colorado, an expected recovery of 7.5 percent of the original oil in place (OOIP) after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 30 percent of the HCPV, but Clark (2012) reported that after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 46 percent of the HCPV, the actual recovery was 4.8 percent of the OOIP. Decades later, the numbers by Brock and Bryan (1989) continue to be cited as part of expanded reviews, such as the one by Kuuskraa and Koperna (2006). Other comprehensive reviews including recovery factors are those of Christensen and others (2001) and Lake and Walsh (2008). The Oil and Gas Journal (O&GJ) periodically reports on active CO 2 -EOR operations worldwide, but those releases do not include recovery factors. The monograph by Jarrell and others (2002) remains the most technically comprehensive publication on CO 2 flooding, but it does not cover recovery factors either. This chapter is a review of the literature found in a search for information about CO 2 -EOR. It has been prepared as part of a project by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the incremental oil production that would be technically feasible by CO 2 flooding of all suitable oil reservoirs in the country not yet undergoing tertiary recovery.
Scientific Investigations Report↗
Modeling approaches in avian conservation and the role of field biologists
This review grew out of our realization that models play an increasingly important role in conservation but are rarely used in the research of most avian biologists. Modelers are creating models that are more complex and mechanistic and that can incorporate more of the knowledge acquired by field biologists. Such models require field biologists to provide more specific information, larger sample sizes, and sometimes new kinds of data, such as habitat-specific demography and dispersal information. Field biologists need to support model development by testing key model assumptions and validating models. The best conservation decisions will occur where cooperative interaction enables field biologists, modelers, statisticians, and managers to contribute effectively. We begin by discussing the general form of ecological models—heuristic or mechanistic, "scientific" or statistical—and then highlight the structure, strengths, weaknesses, and applications of six types of models commonly used in avian conservation: (1) deterministic single-population matrix models, (2) stochastic population viability analysis (PVA) models for single populations, (3) metapopulation models, (4) spatially explicit models, (5) genetic models, and (6) species distribution models. We end by considering their unique attributes, determining whether the assumptions that underlie the structure are valid, and testing the ability of the model to predict the future correctly.
Ornithological Monographs↗
The Novarupta-Katmai eruption of 1912 - largest eruption of the twentieth century; centennial perspectives
The explosive outburst at Novarupta (Alaska) in June 1912 was the 20th century's most voluminous volcanic eruption. Marking its centennial, we illustrate and document the complex eruptive sequence, which was long misattributed to nearby Mount Katmai, and how its deposits have provided key insights about volcanic and magmatic processes. It was one of the few historical eruptions to produce a collapsed caldera, voluminous high-silica rhyolite, wide compositional zonation (51-78 percent SiO 2 ), banded pumice, welded tuff, and an aerosol/dust veil that depressed global temperature measurably. It emplaced a series of ash flows that filled what became the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, sustaining high-temperature metal-transporting fumaroles for a decade. Three explosive episodes spanned ~60 hours, depositing ~17 km 3 of fallout and 11±2 km 3 of ignimbrite, together representing ~13.5 km 3 of zoned magma. No observers were nearby and no aircraft were in Alaska, and so the eruption narrative was assembled from scattered villages and ship reports. Because volcanology was in its infancy and the early investigations (1915-23) were conducted under arduous expeditionary conditions, many provocative misapprehensions attended reports based on those studies. Fieldwork at Katmai was not resumed until 1953, but, since then, global advances in physical volcanology and chemical petrology have gone hand in hand with studies of the 1912 deposits, clarifying the sequence of events and processes and turning the eruption into one of the best studied in the world. To provide perspective on this century-long evolution, we describe the geologic and geographic setting of the eruption - in a remote, sparsely inhabited wilderness; we review the cultural and scientific contexts at the time of the eruption and early expeditions; and we compile a chronology of the many Katmai investigations since 1912. Products of the eruption are described in detail, including eight layers of regionwide fallout, nine packages of ash flows, and three lava domes that followed the explosive pyroclastic episodes. Changes in the proportions of coerupting rhyolite, dacite, and andesite pumice documented for the fallout and ash-flow successions, which are locally interbedded, permit close correlation of those synchronously emplaced sequences and their varied facies. Petrological correlation of the sequence of deposits near Novarupta with ash layers at Kodiak village, 170 km downwind, where three episodes of ashfall were recorded (to the hour), provides key constraints on timing of the eruptive events. Syneruptive collapse of a kilometer-deep caldera took place atop Mount Katmai, a stratovolcano centered 10 km east of the eruption site at Novarupta, owing to drainage of magma from beneath the Katmai edifice. Correlation of ~50 earthquakes recorded at distant seismic stations (including 14 shocks of magnitude 6.0 to 7.0) to fitful caldera collapse provides further constraints on eruption timing, because layers of nonjuvenile breccia and mud ejected from Mount Katmai during collapse pulses are intercalated with the pumice-fall layers from Novarupta. Structure of the Novarupta vent, a 2-km-wide depression backfilled by welded tuff and inferred to be funnel-shaped at depth, is described in detail, as is the 4-km-wide caldera at Mount Katmai. Discussions are also provided concerning: (1) the impact on global climate of the great mass of sulfur-poor but halogen-rich aerosol ejected into the atmosphere by the rhyolite-dominated eruption; (2) chemical and mineralogical effects of the fumarolic acid gases; and (3) the timing of several syneruptive landslide deposits sandwiched within the pumice-fall sequence. Secondary posteruption phenomena characterized include impounded lakes, ash-rich debris flows, phreatic craters on the ignimbrite sheet, responses of glaciers to the fallout blanket and to beheading by caldera collapse, growth of new glaciers inside the caldera, and gradual filling of the caldera lake. Structure, composition, and ages of the several andesite-dacite stratovolcanoes, closely clustered near Novarupta, all of which remain fumarolically and seismically active, are summarized. But among them only Mount Katmai extends compositionally to include basalt and rhyolite. The petrological affinities of 1912 magmas erupted at Novarupta with pre-1912 Katmai lavas are outlined, and various chemical, mineralogical, isotopic, and experimental data are assembled to construct a model of preeruptive magma storage beneath Mount Katmai. The monograph concludes by comparing the 1912 eruption with several other well-studied large explosive eruptions, 14 of them historical and 9 prehistoric. Finally, we retrospectively review the historical difficulties in understanding what had actually taken place at Katmai in 1912 and the century of progress in volcano science that has allowed most of it to be figured out.
Alaska;British Columbia;Washington;Yukon↗
Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators
Statistical models for estimating absolute densities of field populations of animals have been widely used over the last century in both scientific studies and wildlife management programs. To date, two general classes of density estimation models have been developed: models that use data sets from capture–recapture or removal sampling techniques (often derived from trapping grids) from which separate estimates of population size ( NÌ‚ ) and effective sampling area ( AÌ‚ ) are used to calculate density ( DÌ‚ = NÌ‚ / AÌ‚ ); and models applicable to sampling regimes using distance-sampling theory (typically transect lines or trapping webs) to estimate detection functions and densities directly from the distance data. However, few studies have evaluated these respective models for accuracy, precision, and bias on known field populations, and no studies have been conducted that compare the two approaches under controlled field conditions. In this study, we evaluated both classes of density estimators on known densities of enclosed rodent populations. Test data sets ( n = 11) were developed using nine rodent species from capture–recapture live-trapping on both trapping grids and trapping webs in four replicate 4.2-ha enclosures on the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico, USA. Additional “saturation” trapping efforts resulted in an enumeration of the rodent populations in each enclosure, allowing the computation of true densities. Density estimates ( DÌ‚ ) were calculated using program CAPTURE for the grid data sets and program DISTANCE for the web data sets, and these results were compared to the known true densities ( D ) to evaluate each model's relative mean square error, accuracy, precision, and bias. In addition, we evaluated a variety of approaches to each data set's analysis by having a group of independent expert analysts calculate their best density estimates without a priori knowledge of the true densities; this “blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models M b and M bh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research studies involving small-mammal abundances.
Ecological Monographs↗