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USGS2019

Regional protocol framework for the inventory and monitoring of breeding Atlantic Coast Piping Plovers

This regional protocol provides a framework for quantifying the number of breeding pairs and productivity of Atlantic Coast piping plover (Charadrius melodus) populations during the breeding season. A primary purpose of this protocol is to standardize piping plover monitoring during the breeding season. The survey techniques described herein involve repeated visual counts of adults, nests, eggs, and chicks within a defined survey site (i.e., beach) as well as visual identification of potential threats to survival and productivity. Resulting data can be compiled and analyzed across multiple geographic units (i.e., sites, states, and recovery units) to assess progress toward recovery goals, inform local management decisions, assess management effectiveness, and improve monitoring efforts. This protocol framework was developed as part of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Initiative in coordination with Ecological Services (ES) and state coordinators within the Southeast and Northeast Regions (4 and 5, respectively). Although this protocol framework is to be used primarily by NWRS to inform recovery goals, assist with local management decision-making, and meet State reporting requirements, the approach strives to assist monitoring efforts of nonNWRS partners, such as other federal agencies (e.g. National Park Service), State wildlife agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners. This protocol framework and associated data management system (PIPLweb) aims to interface with existing data management and analysis tools (i.e., PIPLODES, NestStory, and PiperEx) to ensure that data collection is efficient and comparable across scales, and supports management decisions across partners. The content and structure of the protocol framework follows standards set forth in the USFWS’s How to Develop Survey Protocols: A Handbook (Version 1.0; 2013). The eight elements addressed include: introduction, sampling design, field methods, data management and analysis, reporting, personnel requirements and training, operational requirements, and references. A series of standard operating procedures (SOPs) provides greater detail on recommended methods and technical aspects of this protocol. Data entry, archival, and multi-scale analysis are handled through a secure web application (Plover Inventory and Productivity Library; PIPLweb) developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). When management activities and survey objectives are similar across management units, partners (Refuges, other federal agencies, State, NGOs, private) are encouraged to use this protocol framework to develop stepped-down site-specific survey protocols that include guidance for conducting on-the-ground monitoring and management plans.

Regional Protocol Framework↗

USGS2021

Alaska landbird montoring survey: Alaska regional protocol framework for monitoring landbirds using point counts

Alaska provides habitat for 143 species of landbirds that occur regularly in the state, about half of which breed predominantly north of the border between the contiguous United States and Canada. The road-based North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides some data on population trends in Alaska, but most northern populations are inadequately monitored by this program because of a paucity of roads. To remedy this deficiency, Boreal Partners in Flight developed the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey (ALMS) to monitor breeding populations of landbirds in off-road areas of Alaska in tandem with data collected from the roadside BBS. The primary objective of ALMS is to monitor long-term population trends of landbirds and other species that can be monitored by diurnal point counts during the breeding season, including many shorebirds and aquatic birds. A secondary objective is to estimate landbird densities by habitat, which can be used to model avian distribution and abundance across Alaska. ALMS is a collaborative program whereby agencies and other entities conduct standardized surveys of breeding birds and their habitats on the lands they manage and then contribute the data to the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center for storage and analysis. The short-term implementation goal of ALMS is to monitor birds systematically within each of 100 randomly selected survey blocks, thereby matching the number of BBS surveys conducted in each of Alaska's five Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). Each block has a mini-grid of 15−25 points that are surveyed biennially, with half of the blocks surveyed in alternating years. Survey blocks are stratified by accessibility and cost-effectiveness. Refuges may opt to limit sites to those accessible by foot, vehicle, boat, or fixed-wing aircraft, as these can be surveyed more inexpensively and reliably over time. Observers survey each point within a survey block for birds using a 10-min point count once per summer on a biennial basis. They collect corresponding habitat data during the first visit and at subsequent 10-year intervals or whenever a disturbance (e.g., fire, wind) has caused a significant change. USGS analyzes ALMS data jointly with BBS data to test for differences between off-road and roadside areas and to increase power to detect statewide trends. Additional blocks can be surveyed in areas that are more difficult and expensive to access as resources become available in the future. Long-term monitoring enables detection of change in bird populations in relation to fire, disease and insect damage, resource development, climate-related change, and other landscape-level disturbances across Alaska. Results from ALMS can also help prioritize conservation and research towards species before they become endangered and require expensive recovery programs.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

State-level freshwater mussel programs: Current status and a research framework to aid in mussel management and conservation

Despite increased focus on their ecology and conservation, freshwater mussels remain one of the most imperiled groups of aquatic organisms. We documented current management actions, resources, and challenges in managing freshwater mussels in the United States through a survey of state natural resource agencies. Approximately 85% of surveyed states ( N = 40) actively managed mussel populations. Common challenges to mussel conservation included limited funding, lack of public awareness, and poor understanding of habitat needs and risks. We present a research framework, currently underway in Missouri, to support a regional mussel conservation assessment whereby habitat needs are identified, risks are assessed, and standardized protocols are developed to monitor and detect trends in mussel assemblages and threats. The research framework conforms to the National Strategy for the Conservation of Native Freshwater Mollusks and is adaptable to other states. With full consideration of resource limitations, we explore how this framework can improve the effectiveness of mussel conservation efforts.

Fisheries↗

USGS2013

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions in this fact sheet provide snapshots of our three research emphases, followed by descriptions of select current projects.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2016

National protocol framework for the inventory and monitoring of bees

This national protocol framework is a standardized tool for the inventory and monitoring of the approximately 4,200 species of native and non-native bee species that may be found within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). However, this protocol framework may also be used by other organizations and individuals to monitor bees in any given habitat or location. Our goal is to provide USFWS stations within the NWRS (NWRS stations are land units managed by the USFWS such as national wildlife refuges, national fish hatcheries, wetland management districts, conservation areas, leased lands, etc.) with techniques for developing an initial baseline inventory of what bee species are present on their lands and to provide an inexpensive, simple technique for monitoring bees continuously and for monitoring and evaluating long-term population trends and management impacts. The latter long-term monitoring technique requires a minimal time burden for the individual station, yet can provide a good statistical sample of changing populations that can be investigated at the station, regional, and national levels within the USFWS’ jurisdiction, and compared to other sites within the United States and Canada. This protocol framework was developed in cooperation with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the USFWS, and a worldwide network of bee researchers who have investigated the techniques and methods for capturing bees and tracking population changes. The protocol framework evolved from field and lab-based investigations at the USGS Bee Inventory and Monitoring Laboratory at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Beltsville, Maryland starting in 2002 and was refined by a large number of USFWS, academic, and state groups. It includes a Protocol Introduction and a set of 8 Standard Operating Procedures or SOPs and adheres to national standards of protocol content and organization. The Protocol Narrative describes the history and need for the protocol framework and summarizes the basic elements of objectives, sampling design, field methods, training, data management, analysis, and reporting. The SOPs provide more detail and specific instructions for implementing the protocol framework. A central database, for managing all the resulting data is under development. We welcome use of this protocol framework by our partners, as appropriate for their bee inventory and monitoring objectives.

Report↗

USGS2011

The key to commercial-scale geological CO2 sequestration: Displaced fluid management

The Wyoming State Geological Survey has completed a thorough inventory and prioritization of all Wyoming stratigraphic units and geologic sites capable of sequestering commercial quantities of CO 2 (5–15 Mt CO 2 /year). This multi-year study identified the Paleozoic Tensleep/Weber Sandstone and Madison Limestone (and stratigraphic equivalent units) as the leading clastic and carbonate reservoir candidates for commercial-scale geological CO 2 sequestration in Wyoming. This conclusion was based on unit thickness, overlying low permeability lithofacies, reservoir storage and continuity properties, regional distribution patterns, formation fluid chemistry characteristics, and preliminary fluid-flow modeling. This study also identified the Rock Springs Uplift in southwestern Wyoming as the most promising geological CO 2 sequestration site in Wyoming and probably in any Rocky Mountain basin. The results of the WSGS CO 2 geological sequestration inventory led the agency and colleagues at the UW School of Energy Resources Carbon Management Institute (CMI) to collect available geologic, petrophysical, geochemical, and geophysical data on the Rock Springs Uplift, and to build a regional 3-D geologic framework model of the Uplift. From the results of these tasks and using the FutureGen protocol, the WSGS showed that on the Rock Springs Uplift, the Weber Sandstone has sufficient pore space to sequester 18 billion tons (Gt) of CO 2 , and the Madison Limestone has sufficient pore space to sequester 8 Gt of CO 2 .

Energy Procedia↗

USGS2015

Estimating occupancy dynamics for large-scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States

Regional monitoring strategies frequently employ a nested sampling design where a finite set of study areas from throughout a region are selected within which intensive sub-sampling occurs. This sampling protocol naturally lends itself to a hierarchical analysis to account for dependence among sub-samples. Implementing such an analysis within a classic likelihood framework is computationally prohibitive with species occurrence data when accounting for detection probabilities. Bayesian methods offer an alternative framework to make this analysis feasible. We demonstrate a general approach for estimating occupancy when data come from a nested sampling design. Using data from a regional monitoring program of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in vernal pools, we analyzed data using static and dynamic occupancy frameworks. We analyzed observations from 2004-2013collected within 14 protected areas located throughout the northeast United States . We use the data set to estimate trends in occupancy at both the regional and individual protected area level. We show that occupancy at the regional level was relatively stable for both species. Much more variation occurred within individual study areas, with some populations declining and some increasing for both species. We found some evidence for a latitudinal gradient in trends among protected areas. However, support for this pattern is overestimated when the hierarchical nature of the data collection is not controlled for in the analysis. For both species, occupancy appeared to be declining in the most southern areas, while occupancy was stable or increasing in more northern areas. These results shed light on the range-level population status of these pond-breeding amphibians and our approach provides a framework that can be used to examine drivers of change including among-year and among-site variation in occurrence dynamics, while properly accounting for nested structure of data collection.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2011

U.S. Department of Energy's site screening, site selection, and initial characterization for storage of CO 2 in deep geological formations

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is the lead Federal agency for the development and deployment of carbon sequestration technologies. As part of its mission to facilitate technology transfer and develop guidelines from lessons learned, DOE is developing a series of best practice manuals (BPMs) for carbon capture and storage (CCS). The "Site Screening, Site Selection, and Initial Characterization for Storage of CO 2 in Deep Geological Formations" BPM is a compilation of best practices and includes flowchart diagrams illustrating the general decision making process for Site Screening, Site Selection, and Initial Characterization. The BPM integrates the knowledge gained from various programmatic efforts, with particular emphasis on the Characterization Phase through pilot-scale CO 2 injection testing of the Validation Phase of the Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (RCSP) Initiative. Key geologic and surface elements that suitable candidate storage sites should possess are identified, along with example Site Screening, Site Selection, and Initial Characterization protocols for large-scale geologic storage projects located across diverse geologic and regional settings. This manual has been written as a working document, establishing a framework and methodology for proper site selection for CO 2 geologic storage. This will be useful for future CO 2 emitters, transporters, and storage providers. It will also be of use in informing local, regional, state, and national governmental agencies of best practices in proper sequestration site selection. Furthermore, it will educate the inquisitive general public on options and processes for geologic CO 2 storage. In addition to providing best practices, the manual presents a geologic storage resource and capacity classification system. The system provides a "standard" to communicate storage and capacity estimates, uncertainty and project development risk, data guidelines and analyses for adequate site characterization, and guidelines for reporting estimates within the classification based on each project's status.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Flexible risk metrics for identifying and monitoring conservation-priority species

Region-specific conservation programs should have objective, reliable metrics for species prioritization and progress evaluation that are customizable to the goals of a program, easy to comprehend and communicate, and standardized across time. Regional programs may have vastly different goals, spatial coverage, or management agendas, and one-size-fits-all schemes may not always be the best approach. We propose a quantitative and objective framework for generating metrics for prioritizing species that is straightforward to implement and update, customizable to different spatial resolutions, and based on readily available time-series data. This framework is also well-suited to handling missing-data and observer error. We demonstrate this approach using North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS) data to identify conservation priority species from a list of over 300 landbirds across 33 bird conservation regions (BCRs). To highlight the flexibility of the framework for different management goals and timeframes we calculate two different metrics. The first identifies species that may be inadequately monitored by NABBS protocols in the near future (TMT, time to monitoring threshold), and the other identifies species likely to decline significantly in the near future based on recent trends (TPD, time to percent decline). Within the individual BCRs we found up to 45% (mean 28%) of the species analyzed had overall declining population trajectories, which could result in up to 37 species declining below a minimum NABBS monitoring threshold in at least one currently occupied BCR within the next 50 years. Additionally, up to 26% (mean 8%) of the species analyzed within the individual BCRs may decline by 30% within the next decade. Conservation workers interested in conserving avian diversity and abundance within these BCRs can use these metrics to plan alternative monitoring schemes or highlight the urgency of those populations experiencing the fastest declines. However, this framework is adaptable to many taxa besides birds where abundance time-series data are available.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2014

A systematic approach towards the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems

The United Nations General Assembly in 2006 and 2009 adopted resolutions that call for the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from significant adverse impacts of bottom fishing. While general criteria have been produced, there are no guidelines or protocols that elaborate on the process from initial identification through to the protection of VMEs. Here, based upon an expert review of existing practices, a 10-step framework is proposed: (1) Comparatively assess potential VME indicator taxa and habitats in a region; (2) determine VME thresholds; (3) consider areas already known for their ecological importance; (4) compile information on the distributions of likely VME taxa and habitats, as well as related environmental data; (5) develop predictive distribution models for VME indicator taxa and habitats; (6) compile known or likely fishing impacts; (7) produce a predicted VME naturalness distribution (areas of low cumulative impacts); (8) identify areas of higher value to user groups; (9) conduct management strategy evaluations to produce trade-off scenarios; (10) review and re-iterate, until spatial management scenarios are developed that fulfil international obligations and regional conservation and management objectives. To date, regional progress has been piecemeal and incremental. The proposed 10-step framework combines these various experiences into a systematic approach.

Marine Science↗

USGS2020

A revised Holocene coral sea-level database from the Florida reef tract, USA

The coral reefs and mangrove habitats of the south Florida region have long been used in sea-level studies for the western Atlantic because of their broad geographic extent and composition of sea-level tracking biota. The data from this region have been used to support several very different Holocene sea-level reconstructions (SLRs) over the years. However, many of these SLRs did not incorporate all available coral-based data, in part because detailed characterizations necessary for inclusion into sea-level databases were lacking. Here, we present an updated database comprised of 303 coral samples from published sources that we extensively characterized for the first time. The data were carefully screened by evaluating and ranking the visual taphonomic characteristics of every dated sample within the database, which resulted in the identification of 134 high-quality coral samples for consideration as suitable sea-level indicators. We show that our database largely agrees with the most recent SLR for south Florida over the last ~7,000 years; however, the early Holocene remains poorly characterized because there are few high-quality data spanning this period. Suggestions to refine future Holocene SLRs in the region are provided including filling spatial and temporal data gaps of coral samples, particularly from the early Holocene, as well as constructing a more robust peat database to better constrain sea-level variability during the middle to late Holocene. Our database and taphonomic-ranking protocol provide a framework for researchers to evaluate data-selection criteria depending on the robustness of their sea-level models.

Florida↗

USGS2005

Framework for regional synthesis of water-quality data for the glacial aquifer system in the United States

The glacial aquifer system is the largest principal aquifer in aerial extent and ground-water use for public supply in the United States. A principal aquifer is defined as a regionally extensive aquifer or aquifer system that has the potential to be used as a source of potable water (U.S. Geological Survey, 2003). Multiple aquifers often are grouped into large, extensive aquifer systems such as the glacial aquifer system. The glacial aquifer system is considered here to include all unconsolidated aquifers above bedrock north of the line of continental glaciation throughout the country (fig. 1). Total withdrawals from the glacial aquifer system were 3,560 million gallons per day in 2000, which constitutes almost 5 percent of total withdrawals from all aquifers in the United States (Maupin and Barber, 2005). Approximately 41 million people relied on the glacial aquifer for public supply and domestic use in 2000. The U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program began assessing the glacial aquifer system in 1991. The assessment of water-quality data on a regional scale, such as the glacial aquifer system, is coincident with the regional framework established by the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis Program (RASA) (Sun and others, 1997). From 1978 to 1995, the RASA Program systematically evaluated 25 of the Nation's most important groundwater systems including studies in the glacial aquifer system in the northeast, Midwest, and northern Midwest United States. The NAWQA Program is building on the work of the RASA Program to study the water quality of 16 of the most important ground-water systems (Lapham and others, 2005). Over 1,700 water-quality samples have been collected by the NAWQA Program from 1991 to 2004 to assess the glacial aquifer system. This large data set is unique in that the samples have been collected using a consistent sampling protocol, and multiple nested samples. The nested samples address the recently recharged shallow ground water, deeper water from principal aquifers often used for domestic supply, and source water used for public supplies within the glacial aquifer system. Information concerning the NAWQA Program including study unit boundaries is shown in figure 1 (Lapham and others, 2005). A framework for comparison of water quality across the glacial aquifer system has been developed based on two primary characteristics: intrinsic susceptibility and vulnerability. Intrinsic susceptibility, which is a measure of the ease at which water enters and moves through aquifer material, is a characteristic of the aquifer and overlying material and of the hydrologic conditions. Intrinsic susceptibility is independent of the chemical characteristics of the contaminant and its sources. In this way, intrinsic susceptibility assessments do not target specific natural or anthropogenic sources of contamination but instead consider only the physical factors affecting the flow of water to, and through the ground-water resource (Focazio and others, 2002). On a regional scale, intrinsic susceptibility is represented by the spatial distribution of fine- or coarse-grained material at the land surface, and the physical setting of the aquifer system. Vulnerability, which is a function of both intrinsic susceptibility and the proximity and characteristics of contaminant sources, includes consideration of features related to anthropogenic sources of contaminants, such as the character of the upgradient land use (for example, urban, agricultural, undeveloped, and others); as well as features related to natural sources of contaminants, such as the mineralogy of the aquifer material or the geochemical conditions within the aquifer system. The framework helps categorize this large region into areas of similar hydrogeologic characteristics for which water quality can be compared. The purpose of this report is to describe this framework and how it will be used for regional synthesis of water-quality da

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

USGS2018

Evaluating time-removal models for estimating availability of boreal birds during point count surveys: Sample size requirements and model complexity

We used conventional and finite mixture removal models with and without time-varying covariates to evaluate availability given presence for 152 bird species using data from point counts in boreal North America. We found that the choice of model had an impact on the estimability of unknown model parameters and affected the bias and variance of corrected counts. Finite mixture models provided better fit than conventional removal models and better adjusted for count duration. However, reliably estimating parameters and minimizing variance using mixture models required at least 200–1,000 detections. Mixture models with time-varying proportions of infrequent singers were best supported across species, indicating that accounting for date- and time-related heterogeneity is important when combining data across studies over large spatial scales, multiple sampling time frames, or variable survey protocols. Our flexible and continuous time-removal modeling framework can be used to account for such heterogeneity through the incorporation of easily obtainable covariates, such as methods, date, time, and location. Accounting for availability bias in bird surveys allows for better integration of disparate studies at large spatial scales and better adjustment of local, regional, and continental population size estimates.

Condor↗

USGS1998

Revised Methods for Characterizing Stream Habitat in the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Stream habitat is characterized in the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program as part of an integrated physical, chemical, and biological assessment of the Nation's water quality. The goal of stream habitat characterization is to relate habitat to other physical, chemical, and biological factors that describe water-quality conditions. To accomplish this goal, environmental settings are described at sites selected for water-quality assessment. In addition, spatial and temporal patterns in habitat are examined at local, regional, and national scales. This habitat protocol contains updated methods for evaluating habitat in NAWQA Study Units. Revisions are based on lessons learned after 6 years of applying the original NAWQA habitat protocol to NAWQA Study Unit ecological surveys. Similar to the original protocol, these revised methods for evaluating stream habitat are based on a spatially hierarchical framework that incorporates habitat data at basin, segment, reach, and microhabitat scales. This framework provides a basis for national consistency in collection techniques while allowing flexibility in habitat assessment within individual Study Units. Procedures are described for collecting habitat data at basin and segment scales; these procedures include use of geographic information system data bases, topographic maps, and aerial photographs. Data collected at the reach scale include channel, bank, and riparian characteristics.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Determination of burn severity models ranging from regional to continental scales for the conterminous United States

Identifying meaningful measures of ecological change over large areas is dependent on the quantification of robust relationships between ecological metrics and remote sensing products. Over the past several decades, ground observations of wildfire and prescribed fire severity have been acquired across hundreds of wildland fires in the United States, primarily utilizing the Composite Burn Index (CBI) plot protocol. These observations have been coupled to spaceborne passive spectral reflectance indices (e.g. Landsat-derived variations of the Normalized Burn Ratio [NBR]) to produce regression models describing their relationship. Here we develop regression models by vegetation type for multiple vegetation classification systems representing a range of spatial scales, and a decision tree framework for evaluating these regression models. Our overall goals were to determine which scale of ecological classifications provided the best estimate of burn severity from Landsat data and how to choose the best regression model. We aggregated a total of 6280 CBI plots for 234 wildland fires that burned between 1994 and 2017 and produced Landsat-derived NBR and differenced NBR (dNBR) values for each plot. We then calculated best fit linear or higher order regression equations between CBI and NBR/dNBR for each landcover classification system from smallest to largest scale: LANDFIRE Biophysical Settings (BPS), National Vegetation Classification macrogroup (NVC) landcover classifications, Omernick III, II, and I ecoregions, LANDFIRE Fire Regime Groups (FRG), and the entire conterminous United States (CONUS) dataset. The CONUS regression model goodness of fit was moderate (R 2 = 0.55, P < 0.001) for dNBR and poor (R 2 = 0.30, P < 0.001) for NBR. Within landcover classifications, CBI was better fit by dNBR than NBR. Finer scale regional regression models including BPS (dNBR R 2 ¯ "> R2¯ = 0.56 and 0.00–0.83 R 2 range; NBR R 2 ¯ "> R(bar) 2 = 0.43 and 0.00–0.82 R 2 range) and NVC (dNBR R 2 ¯ "> R(bar) 2 = 0.55 and 0.15–0.78 R 2 range; NBR R 2 ¯ "> R(bar) 2 = 0.41 and 0.00–0.79 R 2 range) were on average the same or better than the CONUS models for dNBR and NBR, with the strongest fit models exhibiting R 2 ≥ 0.70, whereas larger scale regional models R 2 ¯ "> R(bar) 2 ranged from 0.28 to 0.5. However, variation in accuracy among landcover types indicate that dNBR and NBR regression models could be used to effectively estimate CBI for future fires in certain regions, while for other regions models may require additional field observations or alternative spectral transformations. Our decision tree schema can be used to help users determine which scale is likely to produce the most accurate results using our models. The CBI regression models developed here, paired with the decision tree, provide users with a simple method to estimate burn severity in units of CBI for any fire within CONUS with moderate to high levels of confidence and provide a template for further development of models with new data going forward.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2019

Statistical power of dynamic occupancy models to identify temporal change: Informing the North American Bat Monitoring Program

Dynamic occupancy models provide a flexible framework for estimating and mapping species occupancy patterns over space and time for large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative). Challenges for designing surveys using the dynamic occupancy modeling framework include defining appropriate derived trend parameters, and providing usable tools for researchers to conduct project-specific sample size investigations. We present a simulation-based power analysis framework for dynamic occupancy models that allows for the incorporation of the underlying environmental space (i.e., as covariates) within a specific study region to inform sample size estimation. We investigate two definitions of temporal trend: (1) a gradual, sustained (linear or nonlinear) change over a period of many years, and (2) an abrupt increase or decrease between two time periods. We draw upon pilot data collected following NABat protocols to inform assumed data generating values in a demonstration of our approach. Due to the complicated parameter structure of dynamic occupancy models, we emphasize the importance of visualizing simulated changes over time based on different parameter settings prior to conducting a power analysis. Our simulations revealed that the linearity of short-term trends (five years in our investigation) conferred higher power with lower sample size than longer trends where occupancy probabilities approached zero (ten years in our investigation). We provide an example of how to use our tools to conduct customized investigations using questions posed by NABat, and in doing so, we shed light on general guidelines that can be applied to programs monitoring species occupancy for other taxa. Importantly, we created an R package to execute our approach for informing program-, species-, and study-specific investigations aimed at identifying changes in species occupancy.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2016

Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )

This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA). The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act. The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses. We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

Open-File Report↗