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Results for “Past Global Changes”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2011

Progress in global lake drilling holds potential for global change research

During the past decade, numerous international investigations of past global change have focused on particular time intervals, or “Time Streams,” suggested by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Project of the International Geosphere‐Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Time Stream 1 encompasses the last 2000 years, and Time Stream 2 encompasses at least the last 250,000 years. Geographically many of these studies have been grouped into north‐south transects of continental global change records known as the Pole‐Equator‐Pole (PEP) transects [ Bradley et al. , 1995]. These continental transects have been complemented by the study of marine records included in the International Marine Global Change Study (IMAGES) transects and high‐latitude ice core records such as those from the U.S. Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) and the European Greenland Ice‐core Project (GRIP).

Idaho, Utah↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗
USGS1995

Continental drilling for paleoclimatic records: Recommendations from an international workshop

The Workshop, entitled "Continental Drilling for Paleoclimate Records", was sponsored by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Project, a core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and by the GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany, in conjunction with the International Continental Drilling Programme (ICDP). The impetus for the meeting was the need for long continental paleoclimate records that will fill gaps left by the marine and ice-core records and provide information on time and spatial scales that are relevant to human activities. Further impetus came from a perceived need to balance the forecasts and reconstructions of climate models with information on actual behavior of the climate system on the continents. The meeting was organized by Steven M. Colman, Suzanne A.G. Leroy, and Jörg F.W. Negendank and was held at the GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany, June 30-July 2, 1995. Because the Workshop was primarily a working meeting, a relatively small number of participants were invited (Appendix 3). Leaders of the PAGES Pole-Equator-Pole (PEP) transects and existing large-lake drilling programs, along with a mixture of technical experts, were the primary group of attendees.

Report↗
USGS2026

Loss and transformation of coastal wetlands due to global change in the conterminous United States: Past, present, and future

Coastal wetlands are being transformed by global change, impacting the ecological and societal benefits provided by these ecosystems. Synthesizing knowledge of historical and expected future transformations in coastal wetlands can help inform forward-looking planning and stewardship efforts. Here, we review anticipated future ecological transformations in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States and contrast them with past transformations. We examine trends at the national scale but focus in detail on the following six wetland-rich regions: (1) Everglades, (2) Mississippi River delta, (3) Chesapeake Bay, (4) San Francisco Estuary, (5) Puget Sound, and (6) Great Lakes. This review is among the first to integrate and compare coastal wetland transformations in the Great Lakes with their oceanic counterparts. Between 1850 and 1970, wetland losses across the nation were high because coastal wetlands were viewed as flooded wastelands needing to be drained, filled, or excavated to make room for other land uses. Over the last 50 years, growing public and scientific appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits provided by coastal wetlands has fostered tremendous gains in wetland restoration and legal protection. Looking to the future, climate change and accelerated sea-level rise have become critical threats to coastal wetlands and are emerging as major drivers of ecological loss and transformation. This review synthesizes regional knowledge regarding past, present, and future changes to help coastal scientists, environmental managers, and the public better anticipate and prepare for future coastal wetland transformations due to climate change, accelerated sea-level rise, land-use change, and other aspects of global change.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2016

Defining the next generation modeling of coastal ecotone dynamics in response to global change

Coastal ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global change; e.g., sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events. Over the past century, global change has resulted in salt-tolerant (halophytic) plant species migrating into upland salt-intolerant (glycophytic) dominated habitats along major rivers and large wetland expanses along the coast. While habitat transitions can be abrupt, modeling the specific drivers of abrupt change between halophytic and glycophytic vegetation is not a simple task. Correlative studies, which dominate the literature, are unlikely to establish ultimate causation for habitat shifts, and do not generate strong predictive capacity for coastal land managers and climate change adaptation exercises. In this paper, we first review possible drivers of ecotone shifts for coastal wetlands, our understanding of which has expanded rapidly in recent years. Any exogenous factor that increases growth or establishment of halophytic species will favor the ecotone boundary moving upslope. However, internal feedbacks between vegetation and the environment, through which vegetation modifies the local microhabitat (e.g., by changing salinity or surface elevation), can either help the system become resilient to future changes or strengthen ecotone migration. Following this idea, we review a succession of models that have provided progressively better insight into the relative importance of internal positive feedbacks versus external environmental factors. We end with developing a theoretical model to show that both abrupt environmental gradients and internal positive feedbacks can generate the sharp ecotonal boundaries that we commonly see, and we demonstrate that the responses to gradual global change (e.g., SLR) can be quite diverse.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2016

Data, age uncertainties and ocean δ 18 O under the spotlight for Ocean2k Phase 2

The oceans make up 71% of the Earth’s surface area and are a major component of the global climate system. They are the world’s primary heat reservoir, and knowledge of the global ocean response to past and present radiative forcing is important for understanding climate change. PAGES’ Ocean2k working group aims to place marine climate of the past century within the context of the previous 2000 years (2k). Phase 1 (2011-2015) focused on constraining the forcing mechanisms most consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the 2k interval (McGregor et al. 2015; Tierney et al. 2015). The 1st Ocean2k workshop assisted in the transition to Ocean2k Phase 2 (2015-2017), with the workshop goal to develop, coordinate and significantly advance community-identified and -driven activities.

Past Global Changes↗
USGS2021

PlioMIP: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

PlioMIP is a network of paleoclimate modelers and geoscientists who, through the study of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP ~3.3–3.0 million years ago), seek to understand the sensitivity of the climate system to forcings and examine how well models reproduce past climate change.

Past Global Changes Magazine↗
USGS2014

Loess as a Quaternary paleoenvironmental indicator

Loess is aeolian sediment that is dominated by silt-sized particles. Unlike either coarser dune sand or finer-grained, long-range-transported dust, loess is relatively poorly sorted, reflecting a combination of transport processes, including saltation, low suspension, and high suspension. Loess can be readily identified in the field; deposits range in thickness from a few centimeters to many tens of meters, and are found over large areas of Eurasia, South and North America (Fig. 1), and smaller areas of New Zealand, Australia, Africa and the Middle East. Loess covers approximately 10% of the Earth’s land surface and is therefore one of the most important terrestrial archives of paleoenvironmental change during the Quaternary. In many regions, loess sections consist of deposits of mostly unaltered sediment with intercalated paleosols. Paleosols represent periods of landscape stability when loess deposition ceased altogether, or at least slowed significantly. Loess can be dated directly using luminescence, radiocarbon, and amino acid geochronology methods.

Past Global Changes↗
USGS2024

Investigating past earthquakes with coral microatolls

Intertidal corals (microatolls) preserve evidence of past uplift or subsidence with annual precision. Microatoll records are particularly useful along subduction zones, and can reveal past earthquake ruptures at a level of detail that is ordinarily limited to the instrumental era.

Past Global Changes (PAGES) Magazine↗
USGS2014

Changing amounts and sources of moisture in the U.S. southwest since the Last Glacial Maximum in response to global climate change

The U.S. southwest has a limited water supply and is predicted to become drier in the 21st century. An improved understanding of factors controlling moisture sources and availability is aided by reconstruction of past responses to global climate change. New stable isotope and growth-rate records for a central Texas speleothem indicate a strong influence of Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture and increased precipitation from 15.5 to 13.5 ka, which includes the majority of the Bølling–Allerød warming (BA: 14.7–12.9 ka). Coeval speleothem records from 900 and 1200 km to the west allow reconstruction of regional moisture sources and atmospheric circulation. The combined isotope and growth-rate time series indicates 1) increased GoM moisture input during the majority of the BA, producing greater precipitation in Texas and New Mexico; and 2) a retreat of GoM moisture during Younger Dryas cooling (12.9–11.5 ka), reducing precipitation. These results portray how late-Pleistocene atmospheric circulation and moisture distribution in this region responded to global changes, providing information to improve models of future climate.

Texas↗
USGS2025

Expanding barriers: Impassable gaps interior to distribution of an isolated mountain-dwelling species

Global change is expected to expand and shrink species' distributions in complex ways beyond just retraction at warm edges and expansion at cool ones. Detecting these changes is complicated by the need for robust baseline data for comparison. For instance, gaps in species' distributions may reflect long-standing patterns, recent shifts, or merely insufficient sampling effort. We investigated an apparent gap in the distribution of the American pika, Ochotona princeps , along the North American Sierra Nevada. Historical records from this region are sparse, with ~100 km separating previously documented pika-occupied sites. Surveys during 2014–2023 confirmed that the gap is currently unoccupied by pikas, and evidence of past occurrence indicates that the gap has expanded over time, likely due to contemporary global change. Sites lacking evidence of past pika occurrence were climatically and geographically more distant from sites with signs of recent (former) occurrence and currently occupied sites. Formerly and currently occupied sites were partially climatically distinct, suggesting either metapopulation-like dynamics or an extinction debt that may eventually result in further population losses at the edge of suitable climate space. The Feather River gap aligns with one of several “low points” in the otherwise continuous boreal-like conditions spanning the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada and is coincident with discontinuities in ranges of other mammals. These results highlight the potential for climate-driven fragmentation and range retraction in regions considered climatically and geographically interior to a species' overall distribution.

California↗
USGS2018

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Science↗
USGS2010

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Book↗
USGS2012

Resource and hazard implications of gas hydrates in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Results of the 2009 Joint Industry Project Leg II Drilling Expedition

In the 1970's, Russian scientists were the first to suggest that gas hydrates, a crystalline solid of water and natural gas, and a historical curiosity to physical chemists, should occur in abundance in the natural environment. Since this early start, the scientific foundation has been built for the realization that gas hydrates are a global phenomenon, occurring in permafrost regions of the arctic and in deep water portions of most continental margins worldwide. Recent field testing programs in the Arctic (Dallimore et al., 2008; Yamamoto and Dallimore, 2008) have indicated that natural gas can be produced from gas hydrate accumulations, particularly when housed in sand-rich sediments, with existing conventional oil and gas production technology (Collett et al., 2008) and preparations are now being made for the first marine field production tests (Masuda et al., 2009). Beyond a future energy resource, gas hydrates in some settings may represent a geohazard. Other studies also indicate that methane released to the atmosphere from destabilized gas hydrates may have contributed to global climate change in the past.

Northern Gulf Of Mexico↗
USGS1997

How Does Climate Change Influence Alaska's Vegetation?: Insights from the Fossil Record

Plant fossils, such as leaves, wood, cones, pollen, and seeds, provide important evidence of how Alaska's vegetation has responded to climate changes over time periods of centuries to millions of years. Long-term trends of global temperatures have been reconstructed from oxygen isotope measurements of microscopic fossils (foraminifera) in the Pacific Ocean (fig. 1) . This temperature curve can be used to compare the major changes in Alaskan vegetation with global climate changes spanning the past 20 million years.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2018

Mid-piacenzian of the north Atlantic Ocean

The Piacenzian Age (Pliocene) represents a past climate interval within which frequency and magnitude of environmental changes during a period of past global warmth can be analyzed, climate models can be tested, and results can be placed in a context to better prepare for future change. Here we focus on the North Atlantic region, incorporating new and existing faunal assemblage and alkenone data from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 642, 662, 982, and 999, and International Ocean Discovery Program Sites 1308 and 1313 into our paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cores and outcrop material containing Piacenzian sediments from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Virginia, USA, are also included. These data allow us to characterize regional changes in temperature, salinity, upwelling, surface productivity, and diversity, associated with climate transitions, and make nuanced reconstructions of mid-Piacenzian conditions within a high-resolution temporal framework between ~3.40 and ~3.15 Ma, inclusive of Marine Isotope Stages M2 through KM5. We include an initial comparison of estimated sea-surface temperature to coupled climate model simulations, which shows improvement in model adherence to paleoclimate parameters over previous data-model comparisons for the Pliocene.

Stratigraphy↗