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A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology.

Nuclear Engineering and Design

Rapid late Pleistocene/Holocene uplift and coastal evolution of the southern Arabian (Persian) Gulf

The coastline along the southern Arabian Gulf between Al Jubail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Dubai, UAE, appears to have risen at least 125 m in the last 18,000 years. Dating and topographic surveying of paleo-dunes (43–53 ka), paleo-marine terraces (17–30 ka), and paleo-marine shorelines (3.3–5.5 ka) document a rapid, > 1 mm/a subsidence, followed by a 6 mm/a uplift that is decreasing with time. The mechanism causing this movement remains elusive but may be related to the translation of the coastal area through the backbasin to forebulge hinge line movement of the Arabian plate or, alternatively, by movement of the underlying Infracambrian-age Hormuz salt in response to sea-level changes associated with continental glaciation. Independent of the mechanism, rapid and episodic uplift may impact the design of engineering projects such as nuclear power plants, airports, and artificial islands as well as the interpretation of sedimentation and archeology of the area.

Quaternary Research

Three-dimensional lithostratigraphic model at Yucca Mountain, Nevada: A framework for fluid transport modeling and engineering design

A three-dimensional lithostratigraphic model of the central block of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, illustrates how some activities can serve both site characterization and design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Site-characterization activities supported by this model include characterizing the three-dimensional geometry of lithologic units and faults, and providing boundary conditions for geostatistical models and site-scale fluid flow modeling. This model supports the conceptual design as well as construction efforts for the proposed ramps of the ESF and potential high-level nuclear waste repository.

Nevada

United States Geological Survey Yearbook, fiscal year 1980

It is not very often that a single event is so overwhelming that it changes public perceptions of natural hazards for generations. Perhaps for the U.S. Geological Survey, the explosive volcanic activity of Mount St. Helens began such a change. After 101 years of careful science of the Earth's past and meticulous observations and assessments of the present, predictive earth science was in full public view. However vague and faint the glimpse of the future made possible by earth science, it was enough. Warnings were issued, thousands of lives were saved, and the age of real-time geology began. The Survey's basic mission has not changed, but the power of our analytical tools has increased by several orders of magnitude. The Survey's efforts to understand Earth processes and hydrologic principles continued with the collection, during fiscal year 1980, of valuable new data on the geologic origin and framework, seismicity, and mineral and energy resources of the United States. The Survey is also responsible for classification of the leasable minerals on Federal lands and the regulation of mineral exploration and development activities on Federal and Indian lands. As the principal earth science fact-gathering agency, the Survey provides information for sound decisionmaking by government and private industry. Industry uses the Survey's information in exploring for energy and minerals and improving their efforts to make development of energy and minerals compatible with environmental protection standards. Government uses the Survey's information in conducting leasing operations on public lands, in regulating the safe design and siting of nuclear plants, and in establishing guidelines for determining and locating areas that are subject to geologic hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. The Yearbook reports a broad range of the Survey's accomplishments during the past fiscal year and provides an overview of future directions. Many of the topics covered will continue to be important natural resource and earth science issues of the 1980's.

Yearbook

Report of the workshop on Extreme Ground Motions at Yucca Mountain, August 23-25, 2004

This Workshop has its origins in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain, the designated site of the underground repository for the nation's high-level radioactive waste. In 1998 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) developed guidelines for PSHA which were published as NUREG/CR-6372, 'Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and the use of experts,' (SSHAC, 1997). This Level-4 study was the most complicated and complex PSHA ever undertaken at the time. The procedures, methods, and results of this PSHA are described in Stepp et al. (2001), mostly in the context of a probability of exceedance (hazard) of 10-4/yr for ground motion at Site A, a hypothetical, reference rock outcrop site at the elevation of the proposed emplacement drifts within the mountain. Analysis and inclusion of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty were significant and time-consuming aspects of the study, which took place over three years and involved several dozen scientists, engineers, and analysts.

Open-File Report

Use of a hybrid computer in engineering-seismology research

A hybrid computer is an important tool in the seismological research conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in support of the Energy Research and Development Administration nuclear explosion testing program at the Nevada Test Site and the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The hybrid computer system, which employs both digital and analog computational techniques, facilitates efficient seismic data processing. Standard data processing operations include: (1) preview of dubbed magnetic tapes of data; (2) correction of data for instrument response; (3) derivation of displacement and acceleration time histories from velocity recordings; (4) extraction of peak-amplitude data; (5) digitization of time histories; (6) rotation of instrumental axes; (7) derivation of response spectra; and (8) derivation of relative transfer functions between recording sites. Catalog of time histories and response spectra of ground motion from nuclear explosions and earthquakes that have been processed by the hybrid computer are used in the Earthquake Hazard Research Program to evaluate the effects of source, propagation path, and site effects on recorded ground motion; to assess seismic risk; to predict system response; and to solve system design problems.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected wells possibly influenced by wastewater disposal at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1981-2012

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzed water-quality data collected from 64 aquifer wells and 35 perched groundwater wells at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) from 1981 through 2012. The wells selected for the study were wells that possibly were affected by wastewater disposal at the INL. The data analyzed included tritium, strontium-90, major cations, anions, nutrients, trace elements, total organic carbon, and volatile organic compounds. The analyses were performed to examine water-quality trends that might influence future management decisions about the number of wells to sample at the INL and the type of constituents to monitor. The data were processed using custom computer scripts developed in the R programming language. Summary statistics were calculated for the datasets. Water-quality trends were determined using a parametric survival regression model to fit the observed data, including left-censored, interval-censored, and uncensored data. The null hypothesis of the trend test was that no relation existed between time and concentration; the alternate hypothesis was that time and concentration were related through the regression equation. A significance level of 0.05 was selected to determine if the trend was statistically significant. Trend test results for tritium and strontium-90 concentrations in aquifer wells indicated that nearly all wells had decreasing or no trends. Similarly, trends in perched groundwater wells were mostly decreasing or no trends; trends were increasing in two perched groundwater wells near the Advanced Test Reactor Complex. Decreasing trends generally are attributed to lack of recent wastewater disposal and radioactive decay. Trend test results for chloride, sodium, sulfate, nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen), chromium, trace elements, and total organic carbon concentrations in aquifer wells indicated that most wells had either decreasing or no trends. The decreasing trends in these constituents are attributed to decrease in disposal of these constituents, as well as discontinued use of the old percolation ponds south of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) and redirection of wastewater to the new percolation ponds 2 miles southwest of the INTEC in 2002. Chloride (along with sodium, sulfate, and some nitrate) concentrations in wells south of the INTEC may be influenced by episodic recharge from the Big Lost River. These constituent concentrations decrease during wetter periods when there is probably more recharge from the Big Lost River and increase during dry periods, when there is less recharge. Some wells downgradient of the Central Facilities Area and near the southern boundary of the INL showed increasing trends in sodium concentration, whereas there was no trend in chloride. The increasing trend for sodium could be due to the long term influence of wastewater disposal from upgradient facilities and the lack of trend for chloride could be because chloride is more mobile than sodium and more dispersed in the aquifer system. Volatile organic compound concentration trends were analyzed for nine aquifer wells. Trend test results indicated an increasing trend for carbon tetrachloride for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Production Well for the period 1987–2012; however, trend analyses of data collected since 2005 show no statistically significant trend indicating that engineering practices designed to reduce movement of volatile organic compounds to the aquifer may be having a positive effect on the aquifer.

Idaho

The saturated zone at Yucca Mountain: An overview of the characterization and assessment of the saturated zone as a barrier to potential radionuclide migration

The US Department of Energy is pursuing Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for the development of a geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste, if the repository is able to meet applicable radiation protection standards established by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Effective performance of such a repository would rely on a number of natural and engineered barriers to isolate radioactive waste from the accessible environment. Groundwater beneath Yucca Mountain is the primary medium through which most radionuclides might move away from the potential repository. The saturated zone (SZ) system is expected to act as a natural barrier to this possible movement of radionuclides both by delaying their transport and by reducing their concentration before they reach the accessible environment. Information obtained from Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project activities is used to estimate groundwater flow rates through the site-scale SZ flow and transport model area and to constrain general conceptual models of groundwater flow in the site-scale area. The site-scale conceptual model is a synthesis of what is known about flow and transport processes at the scale required for total system performance assessment of the site. This knowledge builds on and is consistent with knowledge that has accumulated at the regional scale but is more detailed because more data are available at the site-scale level. The mathematical basis of the site-scale model and the associated numerical approaches are designed to assist in quantifying the uncertainty in the permeability of rocks in the geologic framework model and to represent accurately the flow and transport processes included in the site-scale conceptual model. Confidence in the results of the mathematical model was obtained by comparing calculated to observed hydraulic heads, estimated to measured permeabilities, and lateral flow rates calculated by the site-scale model to those calculated by the regional-scale flow model. In addition, it was confirmed that the flow paths leaving the region of the potential repository are consistent with those inferred from gradients of measured head and those independently inferred from water-chemistry data. The general approach of the site-scale SZ flow and transport model analysis is to calculate unit breakthrough curves for radionuclides at the interface between the SZ and the biosphere using the three-dimensional site-scale SZ flow and transport model. Uncertainties are explicitly incorporated into the site-scale SZ flow and transport abstractions through key parameters and conceptual models. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology