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Geology and ground water resources, Williams County, North Dakota

Williams County, in northwestern North Dakota, is located near the center of the structural and sedimentary Williston basin. The preglacial sedimentary formations beneath the county are as much as 14,828 feet thick. Their beds dip generally to the south except along the flanks of the north-south striking Nesson anticline in the eastern part of the county. Late Wisconsinan glacial deposits cover all of Williams County except along the Missouri River and other scattered small areas.

North Dakota

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis for streamgages in or near Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and the Wyoming Water Development Office, has developed standard methods of peak-flow frequency analysis for studies in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. These methods describe the implementation of national flood frequency guidelines described in Bulletin 17C ( https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5 ) for the four States and deviations from Bulletin 17C standard procedures to accommodate unusual hydrologic conditions. A U.S. Geological Survey data release accompanying this report ( https://doi.org/10.5066/P1WHRK8H ) provides example peak-flow frequency analyses for selected streamgages in the study area. The methods described in this report can be used to publish similar data releases for other streamgages in the study area.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming

Peak streamflow trends in North Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Standardized guidelines for completing flood-flow frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5 . In recent decades (since about 2000), a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence (periods of clustered floods or droughts, or wet or dry periods) and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change have caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumptions underlying methods in Bulletin 17C. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance on incorporating nonstationarities and further identifies a need for flood-frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. As part of that reexamination, a study of annual peak streamflow (peak flow) has begun in the Midwest. This chapter of the study summarizes how hydroclimatic variability affects peak flows in North Dakota. In this analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate metrics, four periods were selected: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Output from a monthly water-balance model was used for the climate data. Statistical analysis of peak flow consisted of evaluations of autocorrelation, trends, and change points and was augmented with analyses of seasonality and daily streamflow. The long-term pattern of decreasing peak flow in the west and increasing peak flow in the east is a pattern of opposing signals on either side of the 100th meridian. Analyses indicate that a key factor in changing hydroclimatology is the increase in fall precipitation. The trends in soil moisture closely match the trends in annual precipitation. Nonstationary flood-frequency analysis necessitates detailed exploratory data analysis and additional data and information about climate, land use, and other factors. This study provides extensive exploratory analysis for peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data for North Dakota, setting the stage for informed nonstationary flood-frequency analysis.

North Dakota

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Bulletin of the United States Geological and Geographical Survey of the Territories: Volume IV, Number 3

Table of Contents ART. XXV.----Field-notes on Birds observed in Dakota and Montana along the Forty-ninth Parallel during the seasons of 1873 and 1874. By Dr. Elliott Coues, U.S.A., late Surgeon and Naturalist U.S. Northern Boundary Commission.....545-662 ART. XXVI.----Notes on a Collection of Fishes from the Rio Grande, at Brownsville, Texas-Continued. By D.S. Jordan, M.D......663-668 ART. XXVII.---Preliminary Studies on the North American Pyralidae. I. By A.R. Grote..... 669-706 ART. XXVIII.--Paleontological Papers No.6: Descriptions of New Species of Invertebrate Fossils from the Laramie Group. By C.A. White, M.D......707-720 ART. XXIX.----Paleontological Papers No.7: On the Distribution of Molluscan Species in the Laramie Group. By C. A. White, M.D......721-724 ART. XXX.-----On some Dark Shale recently discovered below the Devonian Limestones, at Independence, Iowa\; with a Notice of its Fossils and Description of New Species. By S. Calvin, Professor of Geology, State University of Iowa.....725-730 ART. XXXI.----On the Mineralogy of Nevada. By W.J. Hoffman, M.D......731-745

Report

Altitudes between Lake Superior and the Rocky Mountains

In the survey of Lake Agassiz, a preliminary report of which forms Bulletin No. 39, it was found necessary to ascertain the altitudes determined within its area by railroad surveys as the basis for leveling along the shore lines of that glacial lake, and learning their relations in height to each other, to the great lakes of the St. Lawrence and Nelson Rivers, and to the ocean. From the time of the first observations and description of the upper beaches of Lake Agassiz by the author in 1879 and 1881, for the Geological Survey of Minnesota, and especially since the work was extended in 1885, under the U. S. Geological Survey, to include both sides of this lacustrine area in Minnesota and North Dakota now drained by the Red River of the North, much attention has been given to this collection of altitudes, and to the means of referring them to the sea level. The greater part of Lake Agassiz, however, was in Manitoba and adjacent British Territory, stretching north to the Saskatchewan; and in 1887, jointly for the Geological Surveys of the United States and of Canada, the author continued his examination of the beaches and deltas on the west side of the lake along a distance of a hundred miles north from the international boundary, across the prairie region of southwestern Manitoba, the leveling in this work being based on the altitudes of the Canadian Pacific Railway and its branches and connecting railways.

Bulletin

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota

Geology and ground-water resources of Wichita and Greeley Counties, Kansas

This report describes the geography, geology, and ground-water resources of Wichita and Greeley counties in western Kansas. The area consists of a flat to gently rolling plain, which slopes eastward [at] about 15 feet per mile. A short reach of Ladder Creek (Beaver) is the only perennially flowing stream in the two counties. Ephemeral streams, which flow only during and after heavy rains, are White Woman and Sand Creeks and the western reach of Ladder Creek. The climate is semiarid, the normal annual precipitation being about 17 inches in Wichita County and 16 inches in Greeley County. Agriculture is the principal occupation in the area, and wheat is the most important crop. A considerable area is irrigated; sugar beets and sorghums are the principal irrigated crops. The outcropping rocks range in age from late Cretaceous to Recent; the Smoky Hill chalk member of the Niobrara formation, which is exposed along White Woman Creek in western Greeley County, is the oldest. The Niobrara is almost everywhere overlain by the Ogallala formation of Pliocene age. Generally the Ogallala is overlain by windblown silt of the Pleistocene Sanborn formation, but in places it is exposed along streams. The most recent deposits are dune sand and the alluvium along the streams. The Dakota formation, which is an important aquifer in parts of Kansas, is 300 to 450 feet beneath the Niobrara formation. The ground water that is available to wells in Wichita and Greeley counties is derived entirely from precipitation in the area or in areas immediately west and north. Ground water moves in a generally easterly direction with a gradient that varies inversely with the permeability of the water-bearing beds. The ground-water reservoir is recharged principally by precipitation within the area or within adjacent areas, Ground-water discharge takes place principally by pumping from wells, subsurface outflow, and evaporation and transpiration. Most of the domestic, stock, public, and irrigation supplies are obtained from wells. It is estimated that probably more than 2 billion gallons of water is pumped annually from wells in the area. Since 1947, ground-water recharge has been about equal to ground-water discharge. The use of ground water for irrigation has increased greatly since 1946 and indications are that many more wells may be drilled and pumped without dangerously lowering the water table. Approximately 11,000 to 12,000 acres were irrigated in 1951. A map showing the thickness of water-bearing materials indicates that although much of the area has enough water-bearing material to support irrigation wells, parts of Wichita and Greeley counties have little or none. The Ogallala is the principal water-bearing formation in the area. Small amounts of water may also be obtained locally from alluvial deposits and from cracks in the Niobrara formation. Two deep test wells to the Dakota formation have been drilled but, because of the poor quality of the water, have never been used. The ground water in Wichita and Greeley counties, though hard, is suitable for most purposes. Water from the Ogallala is generally high in fluoride and in some cases may be injurious to the teeth of children. Water from the Dakota, though soft, is unfit for irrigation because of a high content of sodium. The field data upon which most of this report is based are given in tables; they include records of 417 wells, chemical analyses of 31 samples of water, and logs of 57 test holes and wells.

Kansas Geological Survey Bulletin