Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Mountain Research and Development”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Assessment and monitoring of recreation impacts and resource conditions on mountain summits: Examples from the Northern Forest, USA

Mountain summits present a unique challenge to manage sustainably: they are ecologically important and, in many circumstances, under high demand for recreation and tourism activities. This article presents recent advances in the assessment of resource conditions and visitor disturbance in mountain summit environments, by drawing on examples from a multiyear, interdisciplinary study of summits in the northeastern United States. Primary impact issues as a consequence of visitor use, such as informal trail formation, vegetation disturbance, and soil loss, were addressed via the adaption of protocols from recreation ecology studies to summit environments. In addition, new methodologies were developed that provide measurement sensitivity to change previously unavailable through standard recreation monitoring protocols. Although currently limited in application to the northeastern US summit environments, the methods presented show promise for widespread application wherever summits are in demand for visitor activities.

Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Massachus↗

A new high-resolution map of world mountains and an online tool for visualizing and comparing characterizations of global mountain distributions

Answers to the seemingly straightforward questions “what is a mountain?” and “where are the mountains of the world?” are in fact quite complex, and there have been few attempts to map the mountains of the earth in a consistent and rigorous fashion. However, knowing exactly where mountain ecosystems are distributed on the planet is a precursor to conserving them, as called for in Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 15 of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this article we first compare 3 characterizations of global mountain distributions, including a new, high-resolution (250 m) map of global mountains derived from terrain characteristics. We show how differences in conceptual definition, methodology, and spatial resolution of source data can result in differences in the extent and location of lands classed as mountains. For example, the new 250-m resource documents a larger global mountain extent than previous characterizations, although it excludes plateaus, hilly forelands, and other landforms that are often considered part of mountain areas. We then introduce the Global Mountain Explorer, a new web-based application specifically developed for exploration, visualization, and comparison of these maps. This new open-access tool is an intuitive and versatile resource suitable for a broad range of users and applications.

Mountain Research and Development↗

HIMALA: climate impacts on glaciers, snow, and hydrology in the Himalayan region

Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world's population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Himalayas↗

Management of land use conflicts in the United States Rocky Mountains

People have long been attracted to the beauty and grandeur of the Rocky Mountains. Until very recently, however, the Rocky Mountain region was sparsely populated and its use mostly extractive. Commodities removed in massive quantities included first beaver, then precious metals, timber, energy, and finally water. There has been a fundamental change in migration patterns since the 1980s. Populations are expanding not only in urban areas; many rural areas are also growing faster. In an affluent and mobile society, Americans are moving to the West for aesthetic reasons, often based on perceptions that have little to do with regional roots, family ties, or economic opportunities. Wallace Stegner described the West into the 1980s as a colony for the rest of the nation. “It seems to be almost like a continuous repetitive act of God that the western resources should be mined …, that populations should rush in and have to rush out again, or trickle out again…. Get in, get rich, get out….Every boom and bust leaves the West physically a little poorer, a little worse damaged” ( Stegner 1996 ). In an article about actor and director Robert Redford, writer Richard Raynor talks about unexpected side effects Redford's movies have had on American behavior. “A River Runs Through It" dangerously swelled the banks of American rivers with novice fishermen. It seems likely that Redford's loving rendition of ranch life in The Horse Whisperer … will have a similar effect on western Montana, filling it with even more people in a nostalgic search for American rapture and simplicity” (1998).

Rocky Mountains↗

Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

Mountain Research and Development↗

Plant invasions in mountains: Global lessons for better management

Mountains are one of few ecosystems little affected by plant invasions. However, the threat of invasion is likely to increase because of climate change, greater anthropogenic land use, and continuing novel introductions. Preventive management, therefore, will be crucial but can be difficult to promote when more pressing problems are unresolved and predictions are uncertain. In this essay, we use management case studies from 7 mountain regions to identify common lessons for effective preventive action. The degree of plant invasion in mountains was variable in the 7 regions as was the response to invasion, which ranged from lack of awareness by land managers of the potential impact in Chile and Kashmir to well-organized programs of prevention and containment in the United States (Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest), including prevention at low altitude. In Australia, awareness of the threat grew only after disruptive invasions. In South Africa, the economic benefits of removing alien plants are well recognized and funded in the form of employment programs. In the European Alps, there is little need for active management because no invasive species pose an immediate threat. From these case studies, we identify lessons for management of plant invasions in mountain ecosystems: (i) prevention is especially important in mountains because of their rugged terrain, where invasions can quickly become unmanageable; (ii) networks at local to global levels can assist with awareness raising and better prioritization of management actions; (iii) the economic importance of management should be identified and articulated; (iv) public acceptance of management programs will make them more effective; and (v) climate change needs to be considered. We suggest that comparisons of local case studies, such as those we have presented, have a pivotal place in the proactive solution of global change issues.

Mountain Research and Development↗

Monitoring mountains in a changing world: New horizons for the Global Network for Observations and Information on Mountain Environments (GEO-GNOME)

Mountains are globally distributed environments that provide significant societal benefits, a function that is increasingly compromised by climatic change, environmental stress, political and socioeconomic transformations, and unsustainable use of natural resources. Gaps in our understanding of these processes and their interactions limit our capacity to inform decisions, where both generalities of mountain regions (eg climate processes) and specificities (eg context-specific manifestations of climate risks) matter. The Global Network for Observations and Information on Mountain Environments (GEO-GNOME), a Group on Earth Observations initiative, aims to fill these gaps through accessible Earth Observation (EO) as well as in-situ data and information on global change drivers, conditions, and trends. A workshop convened by the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) revised GEO-GNOME's work plan, galvanizing a network that promotes relevant monitoring of global change in mountains and is responsive to the integrated knowledge needs of policy, research, and management.

Mountain Research and Development↗

Development of an aerial population survey method for elk (Cervus elaphus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Executive Summary Since the early 1990s, substantial effort and funding have been expended to conduct research to guide development of a 20-year Elk and Vegetation Management Plan for Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in Colorado. One goal of the plan is to maintain the elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population size at the lower end of the natural range of variation. To implement management actions called for in the plan, accurate and reliable population estimates are needed, as well as a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of elk. The previous aerial survey protocol and population estimation model used by the park had not been updated since the model’s initial calibration more than 15 years ago and the model was developed with an insufficient number (n=44) of observations. Thus we initiated research to reevaluate, update, and improve elk population estimation protocols for RMNP. We considered several alternative survey and analysis methods, and concluded that a hybrid population-estimation model using a simultaneous double-observer technique with sighting covariates was the most appropriate and effective aerial survey methodology for this population and the environmental conditions in RMNP. Instructional protocols for conducting these surveys in the future, along with datasheets, are provided in this report’s appendixes. To develop an improved method for aerial elk surveys, we used elk radio-collar location data from our study and other studies, and applied geographic information system analyses to define the survey area and develop effective, repeatable survey transect lines. We used telemetry data from radio-collared elk to inform our understanding of the temporal and spatial scale of elk movements across the park boundary, elk use of tree cover during potential survey hours, and elk use of different elevations within their range. Determining where elk were during surveys helped to fine-tune a survey design that improved spatial cover-age and decreased costs where possible, while standardizing the method to make it repeatable from year to year. We conducted aerial helicopter surveys to test our methodology in an adaptive, iterative process during three winters: 2007–2008, 2008–2009, and 2009–2010. We gained new information on each survey and used results to refine subsequent surveys. Our results confirm that elk movements were highly dynamic with respect to park boundary crossings; an average of six round trips from the park to Estes Park, Colorado, and back per month were taken by global positioning system-collared bull elk. We observed a strong diurnal temporal pattern of bull elk use of trees; elk were found in dense tree cover from 15:00−22:00 but not as often during morning and early afternoon hours when surveys were conducted. We used information on elk use of different altitudes to refine and establish a more efficient survey area. During the time of our study, a concurrent study in the park deployed 120 very high frequency radio collars on elk cows. We used those collar locations during our flights to increase sample size and to evaluate the level of precision we would gain by using “known fates analysis” (in which elk were known to be in the survey area, out of the survey area, or deceased based on radio-collar locations collected simultaneously during aerial surveys). Using radio-collar locations reduced bias by 1.1–8.8 percent and increased precision (that is, reduced the width of confidence intervals). This report provides final population estimates analyzed with and without radio-collar data to demonstrate what is gained by using marked individuals.

Colorado↗

Hydrology and water quality in two mountain basins of the northeastern US: Assessing baseline conditions and effects of ski area development

Mountain regions throughout the world face intense development pressures associated with recreational and tourism uses. Despite these pressures, much of the research on bio-geophysical impacts of humans in mountain regions has focused on the effects of natural resource extraction. This paper describes findings from the first 3 years of a study examining high elevation watershed processes in a region undergoing alpine resort development. Our study is designed as a paired-watershed experiment. The Ranch Brook watershed (9.6 km2) is a relatively pristine, forested watershed and serves as the undeveloped 'control' basin. West Branch (11.7 km2) encompasses an existing alpine ski resort, with approximately 17% of the basin occupied by ski trails and impervious surfaces, and an additional 7% slated for clearing and development. Here, we report results for water years 2001-2003 of streamflow and water quality dynamics for these watersheds. Precipitation increases significantly with elevation in the watersheds, and winter precipitation represents 36-46% of annual precipitation. Artificial snowmaking from water within West Branch watershed currently augments annual precipitation by only 3-4%. Water yield in the developed basin exceeded that in the control by 18-36%. Suspended sediment yield was more than two and a half times greater and fluxes of all major solutes were higher in the developed basin. Our study is the first to document the effects of existing ski area development on hydrology and water quality in the northeastern US and will serve as an important baseline for evaluating the effects of planned resort expansion activities in this area.

Conference Paper↗

Gypsies in the palace: Experimentalist's view on the use of 3-D physics-based simulation of hillslope hydrological response

As a fundamental unit of the landscape, hillslopes are studied for their retention and release of water and nutrients across a wide range of ecosystems. The understanding of these near-surface processes is relevant to issues of runoff generation, groundwater-surface water interactions, catchment export of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, contaminants (e.g. mercury) and ultimately surface water health. We develop a 3-D physics-based representation of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed experimental hillslope using the TOUGH2 sub-surface flow and transport simulator. A recent investigation of sub-surface flow within this experimental hillslope has generated important knowledge of threshold rainfall-runoff response and its relation to patterns of transient water table development. This work has identified components of the 3-D sub-surface, such as bedrock topography, that contribute to changing connectivity in saturated zones and the generation of sub-surface stormflow. Here, we test the ability of a 3-D hillslope model (both calibrated and uncalibrated) to simulate forested hillslope rainfall-runoff response and internal transient sub-surface stormflow dynamics. We also provide a transparent illustration of physics-based model development, issues of parameterization, examples of model rejection and usefulness of data types (e.g. runoff, mean soil moisture and transient water table depth) to the model enterprise. Our simulations show the inability of an uncalibrated model based on laboratory and field characterization of soil properties and topography to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response or the distributed water table within the soil profile. Although not an uncommon result, the failure of the field-based characterized model to represent system behaviour is an important challenge that continues to vex scientists at many scales. We focus our attention particularly on examining the influence of bedrock permeability, soil anisotropy and drainable porosity on the development of patterns of transient groundwater and sub-surface flow. Internal dynamics of transient water table development prove to be essential in determining appropriate model parameterization. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

Advancing migratory bird conservation and management by using radar: An interagency collaboration

Migratory birds face many changes to the landscapes they traverse and the habitats they use. Wind turbines and communications towers, which pose hazards to birds and bats in flight, are being erected or proposed across the United States and offshore. Human activities can also destroy or threaten habitats critical to birds during migratory passage, and climate change appears to be altering migratory patterns. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and other agencies are under increasing pressure to identify and evaluate movement patterns and habitats used during migration and other times. Few tools for deciphering migratory travels exist, but radar-based studies of movements and habitat use patterns in songbirds, waterfowl, and bats hold promise. The U.S. system of over 150 Doppler weather radars provides continental coverage, similar to the scale of bird migration. Although data stored from weather radar represent perhaps the second largest biological data archive in the world, use of those data is currently limited to technically savvy biologists who can handle the obscure data formats. Complementary mobile radar units and thermal and acoustic monitoring are also used in site-specific studies. Efforts to advance bird conservation and management through the use of radar arose independently in several USFWS/USGS collaborations. Recently, this coalition of scientists and resource managers identified the need to work together more closely to foster radar-related research and software development. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists at Fort Collins Science Center, National Wetlands Research Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, and Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, as well as USFWS Migratory Bird biologists across the country, are collaborating with university partners to develop a suite of products for managers. The goals are to identify migratory pathways and stopover sites for conservation, mitigation, and landscape planning; convey the importance of functional landscapes and unobstructed airspaces for migrating wildlife; enable use of radar by the wider biological, wind power, and related communities; and simplify the analysis of radar data. The long term focus is to use radar technologies to better understand movement patterns and habitat associations of migratory birds and other wildlife. Land managers and industry may use the knowledge and tools developed to optimize the siting of energy projects, other facilities, and migratory bird habitat projects. The complementary endeavors, not all of which are funded, concentrate on four fundamentals: (1) develop software, in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists, that enables biologists to access unfiltered weather data and integrate it into standard geographic information systems; (2) develop artificial intelligence-based filters that separate bird from nonbird radar echoes; (3) determine characteristics of bird migration in terms of altitude, speed and direction, daily movements, seasonality, and associations with habitats and landforms; and (4) examine specific movement patterns in relation to towers, wind generation facilities, and tall obstructions. Many technical issues make this work difficult, including complex data structures, massive data sets, digital recognition of birds, large areas not covered by weather radar, and model validation; however, progress will only be furthered by tackling the challenge. The new coalition will meets its goals by: (1) facilitating a productive collaboration with NOAA, Department of the Interior bureaus, state wildlife agencies, universities, power companies, and other potential partners; (2) building and strengthening scientific capabilities within USGS; (3) addressing key migratory bird management issues; and (4) ensuring full funding for the collaborative effort.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluating mountain meadow groundwater response to Pinyon-Juniper and temperature in a great basin watershed

This research highlights development and application of an integrated hydrologic model (GSFLOW) to a semiarid, snow-dominated watershed in the Great Basin to evaluate Pinyon-Juniper (PJ) and temperature controls on mountain meadow shallow groundwater. The work used Google Earth Engine Landsat satellite and gridded climate archives for model evaluation. Model simulations across three decades indicated that the watershed operates on a threshold response to precipitation (P) >400 mm/y to produce a positive yield (P-ET; 9%) resulting in stream discharge and a rebound in meadow groundwater levels during these wetter years. Observed and simulated meadow groundwater response to large P correlates with above average predicted soil moisture and with a normalized difference vegetation index threshold value >0.3. A return to assumed pre-expansion PJ conditions or an increase in temperature to mid-21st century shifts yielded by only ±1% during the multi-decade simulation period; but changes of approximately ±4% occurred during wet years. Changes in annual yield were largely dampened by the spatial and temporal redistribution of evapotranspiration across the watershed: Yet the influence of this redistribution and vegetation structural controls on snowmelt altered recharge to control water table depth in the meadow. Even a small-scale removal of PJ (0.5 km 2 ) proximal to the meadow will promote a stable, shallow groundwater system resilient to droughts, while modest increases in temperature will produce a meadow susceptible to declining water levels and a community structure likely to move toward dry and degraded conditions.

Nevada↗

Monitoring amphibians in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Amphibian species have inexplicably declined or disappeared in many regions of the world, and in some instances, serious malformations have been observed. In the United States, amphibian declines frequently have occurred even in protected areas. Causes for the declines and malformations probably are varied and may not even be related. The seemingly sudden declines in widely separated areas, however, suggests a need to monitor amphibian populations as well as identify the causes when declines or malformations are discovered. In 2000, the President of the United States and Congress directed Department of the Interior (DOI) agencies to develop a plan to monitor the trends in amphibian populations on DOI lands and to conduct causes of declines. The DOI has stewardship responsibilities over vast land holdings in the United States, much of it occupied by, or potential habitat for, amphibians. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was given lead responsibility for planning and organizing this program, named the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI). Authorization carried the mandate to set up a national amphibian monitoring program on Federal lands, to develop the sampling techniques and biometrical analyses necessary to determine status and trends, and to identify possible causes of amphibian declines and malformations. The biological importance of Great Smoky Mountains National Park has been recognized by its designation as an International Biosphere Reserve. As such, it is clearly the leading region of significance for amphibian research. Although no other region shares the wealth of amphibians as found in the Great Smokies (31 species of salamanders, and 13 of frogs), the entire southern and mid-section of the Appalachian Mountain chain is characterized by a high diversity of amphibians, and inventories and monitoring protocols developed in the Smokies likely will be applicable to other Appalachian National Park Service properties. From 1998 to 2001, USGS biologists carried out a pilot inventory and monitoring research project in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. A variety of inventory, sampling, and monitoring techniques were employed and tested. These included wide-scale visual encounter surveys of amphibians at terrestrial and aquatic sites, intensive monitoring of selected plots, randomly placed small-grid plot sampling, litterbag sampling in streams, monitoring nesting females of selected species, call surveys, and monitoring specialized habitats, such as caves. Coupled with information derived from amphibian surveys on Federal lands using various other techniques (automated frog call data loggers, PVC pipes, drift fences, terrestrial and aquatic traps), an amphibian monitoring program was designed to best meet the needs of biologists and natural resource managers after taking into consideration the logistics, terrain, and life histories of the species found within Great Smoky Mountains National Park. This report provides an overview of the Park’s amphibians, the factors affecting their distribution, a review of important areas of biodiversity, and a summary of amphibian life history in the Southern Appalachians. In addition, survey techniques are described as well as examples of how the techniques are set up, a critique of what the results tell the observer, and a discussion of the limitations of the techniques and the data. The report reviews considerations for site selection, outlines steps for biosecurity and for processing diseased or dying animals, and provides resource managers with a decision tree on how to monitor the Park’s amphibians based on different levels of available resources. It concludes with an extensive list of references for inventorying and monitoring amphibians. USGS and Great Smoky Mountains National Park biologists need to establish cooperative efforts and training to ensure that congressionally mandated amphibian surveys are performed in a statistically rigorous and biologically meaningful manner, and that amphibian populations on Federal lands are monitored to ensure their long-term survival. The research detailed in this report will aid these cooperative efforts.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗

Using geochemical and statistical tools to identify irrigated areas that might contain high selenium concentrations in surface water

Ir rigated agriculture has a long history in the Western United States, beginning with Native American Indians. After passage of the Reclamation Act of 1902, the United States Government began building and subsidizing irrigation projects to foster settlement and development of the arid and semi-arid areas of the Western United States (National Research Council, 1989). Precipitation in the mountainous areas of the West (fig. 1) is stored in reservoirs and used for irrigation of farmland. With the development of irrigated agriculture, unforeseen environmental problems have occurred.

Fact Sheet↗

A reference data set of hillslope rainfall-runoff response, Panola Mountain Research Watershed, United States

Although many hillslope hydrologic investigations have been conducted in different climate, topographic, and geologic settings, subsurface stormflow remains a poorly characterized runoff process. Few, if any, of the existing data sets from these hillslope investigations are available for use by the scientific community for model development and validation or conceptualization of subsurface stormflow. We present a high-resolution spatial and temporal rainfall-runoff data set generated from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed trenched experimental hillslope. The data set includes surface and subsurface (bedrock surface) topographic information and time series of lateral subsurface flow at the trench, rainfall, and subsurface moisture content (distributed soil moisture content and groundwater levels) from January to June 2002. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Water Resources Research↗

Extreme ground motions and Yucca Mountain

Yucca Mountain is the designated site of the underground repository for the United States' high-level radioactive waste (HLW), consisting of commercial and military spent nuclear fuel, HLW derived from reprocessing of uranium and plutonium, surplus plutonium, and other nuclear-weapons materials. Yucca Mountain straddles the western boundary of the Nevada Test Site, where the United States has tested nuclear devices since the 1950s, and is situated in an arid, remote, and thinly populated region of Nevada, ~100 miles northwest of Las Vegas. Yucca Mountain was originally considered as a potential underground repository of HLW because of its thick units of unsaturated rocks, with the repository horizon being not only ~300 m above the water table but also ~300 m below the Yucca Mountain crest. The fundamental rationale for a geologic (underground) repository for HLW is to securely isolate these materials from the environment and its inhabitants to the greatest extent possible and for very long periods of time. Given the present climate conditions and what is known about the current hydrologic system and conditions around and in the mountain itself, one would anticipate that the rates of infiltration, corrosion, and transport would be very low—except for the possibility that repository integrity might be compromised by low-probability disruptive events, which include earthquakes, strong ground motion, and (or) a repository-piercing volcanic intrusion/eruption. Extreme ground motions (ExGM), as we use the phrase in this report, refer to the extremely large amplitudes of earthquake ground motion that arise at extremely low probabilities of exceedance (hazard). They first came to our attention when the 1998 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Yucca Mountain was extended to a hazard level of 10 -8 /yr (a 10-4/yr probability for a 10 4 -year repository “lifetime”). The primary purpose of this report is to summarize the principal results of the ExGM research program as they have developed over the past 5 years; what follows will be focused on Yucca Mountain, but not restricted to it.

Nevada↗

New approaches for sampling and modeling native and exotic plant species richness

We demonstrate new multi-phase, multi-scale approaches for sampling and modeling native and exotic plant species to predict the spread of invasive species and aid in control efforts. Our test site is a 54,000-ha portion of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. This work is based on previous research wherein we developed vegetation sampling techniques to identify hot spots of diversity, important rare habitats, and locations of invasive plant species. Here we demonstrate statistical modeling tools to rapidly assess current patterns of native and exotic plant species to determine which habitats are most vulnerable to invasion by exotic species. We use stepwise multiple regression and modified residual kriging to estimate numbers of native species and exotic species, as well as probability of observing an exotic species in 30 × 30-m cells. Final models accounted for 62% of the variability observed in number of native species, 51% of the variability observed in number of exotic species, and 47% of the variability associated with observing an exotic species. Important independent variables used in developing the models include geographical location, elevation, slope, aspect, and Landsat TM bands 1-7. These models can direct resource managers to areas in need of further inventory, monitoring, and exotic species control efforts.

Western North American Naturalist↗