Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗
USGS2013

Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km 2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha −1 yr −1 ), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha −1 yr −1 , based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

Great Plains↗
USGS2013

Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study

We examine the effects of crop management adaptation and climate mitigation strategies on land use and land management, plus on related environmental and economic outcomes. We find that crop management adaptation (e.g. crop mix, new species) increases Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.7 % under a more severe climate projection while a carbon price reduces total forest and agriculture GHG annual flux by 15 % and 9 %, respectively. This shows that trade-offs are likely between mitigation and adaptation. Climate change coupled with crop management adaptation has small and mostly negative effects on welfare; mitigation, which is implemented as a carbon price starting at $15 per metric ton carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent with a 5 % annual increase rate, bolsters welfare carbon payments. When both crop management adaptation and carbon price are implemented the effects of the latter dominates.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗
USGS2012

Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around -14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗
USGS2018

The influence of land-cover changes on the variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity in tropical peatlands

Understanding the movement of water through peat is essential for effective conservation and management strategies for peatlands. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, K s , describes water movement through the peat profile. However, the spatial variability of K s in tropical peatlands and the effects of land conversion on peat characteristics are poorly understood. Utilizing the slug test method, we estimated hydraulic conductivity in tropical peatlands in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, at three depths (0.75, 3.5, and 5.5 m) across four different land-cover types (undrained forests, recently burned forests, early seral communities, and oil palm ( Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) plantations). We found strong spatial autocorrelation among measurements collected at our 19 study sites and evaluated the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and land-cover types, peat properties, and depth of measurement with a hierarchical linear model. Hydraulic conductivity varied greatly ( c. 0.001–13.9 m d −1 ). The best approximating model for estimating K s contained depth, forest cover, a depth and forest cover interaction, and the von Post degree of decomposition ( K s ~ depth + forest + depth × forest + von Post). Parameter estimates indicated that K s was greater in forested than non-forested sites and decreased with increasing depth and decomposition stage. There was no evidence that K s differed among the non-forested sites or was related to other physical and chemical peat properties. Our results suggest that K s should be measured directly in tropical peatlands rather than estimated as a function of peat properties. Additionally, the strong spatial dependence suggests that similar research designs should examine the sample data for spatial dependence and, if necessary, incorporate hierarchical models.

Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Chan↗
USGS2004

The role of fungal symbiosis in the adaptation of plants to high stress environments

All plants studied in natural ecosystemsare symbiotic with fungi that either resideentirely (endophytes) or partially(mycorrhizae) within plants. Thesesymbioses appear to adapt to biotic andabiotic stresses and may be responsible forthe survival of both plant hosts and fungalsymbionts in high stress habitats. Here wedescribe the role of symbiotic fungi inplant stress tolerance and present astrategy based on adaptive symbiosis topotentially mitigate the impacts of globalchange on plant communities.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗
USGS2013

Urban runoff (URO) process for MODFLOW 2005: simulation of sub-grid scale urban hydrologic processes in Broward County, FL

Climate change and sea-level rise could cause substantial changes in urban runoff and flooding in low-lying coast landscapes. A major challenge for local government officials and decision makers is to translate the potential global effects of climate change into actionable and cost-effective adaptation and mitigation strategies at county and municipal scales. A MODFLOW process is used to represent sub-grid scale hydrology in urban settings to help address these issues. Coupled interception, surface water, depression, and unsaturated zone storage are represented. A two-dimensional diffusive wave approximation is used to represent overland flow. Three different options for representing infiltration and recharge are presented. Additional features include structure, barrier, and culvert flow between adjacent cells, specified stage boundaries, critical flow boundaries, source/sink surface-water terms, and the bi-directional runoff to MODFLOW Surface-Water Routing process. Some abilities of the U rban R un O ff (URO) process are demonstrated with a synthetic problem using four land uses and varying cell coverages. Precipitation from a hypothetical storm was applied and cell by cell surface-water depth, groundwater level, infiltration rate, and groundwater recharge rate are shown. Results indicate the URO process has the ability to produce time-varying, water-content dependent infiltration and leakage, and successfully interacts with MODFLOW.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Global dataset of soil organic carbon in tidal marshes

Tidal marshes store large amounts of organic carbon in their soils. Field data quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks provide an important resource for researchers, natural resource managers, and policy-makers working towards the protection, restoration, and valuation of these ecosystems. We collated a global dataset of tidal marsh soil organic carbon (MarSOC) from 99 studies that includes location, soil depth, site name, dry bulk density, SOC, and/or soil organic matter (SOM). The MarSOC dataset includes 17,454 data points from 2,329 unique locations, and 29 countries. We generated a general transfer function for the conversion of SOM to SOC. Using this data we estimated a median (± median absolute deviation) value of 79.2 ± 38.1 Mg SOC ha −1 in the top 30 cm and 231 ± 134 Mg SOC ha −1 in the top 1 m of tidal marsh soils globally. This data can serve as a basis for future work, and may contribute to incorporation of tidal marsh ecosystems into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2021

Climate change effects on North American fish and fisheries to inform adaptation strategies

Climate change is a global persistent threat to fish and fish habitats throughout North America. Climate-induced modification of environmental regimes, including changes in streamflow, water temperature, salinity, storm surges, and habitat connectivity can change fish physiology, disrupt spawning cues, cause fish extinctions and invasions, and alter fish community structure. Reducing greenhouse emissions remains the primary mechanism to slow the pace of climate change, but local and regional management agencies and stakeholders have developed an arsenal of adaptation strategies to help partially mitigate the effects of climate change on fish. We summarize common stressors posed by climate change in North America, including (1) increased water temperature, (2) changes in precipitation, (3) sea level rise, and (4) ocean acidification, and present potential adaptation strategies that fishery professionals may apply to help vulnerable fish and fisheries cope with a changing climate. Although our adaptation strategies are primarily from North America, they have broader geographic applicability to fish and aquatic biota in other jurisdictions. These strategies provide opportunities for managers to mitigate the effects of climate change on fish and fish habitat while needed global policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions emerge, which may offer more lasting solutions.

Fisheries Magazine↗
USGS2006

USGS science in Menlo Park -- a science strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park Science Center, 2005-2015

In the spring of 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Menlo Park Center Council commissioned an interdisciplinary working group to develop a forward-looking science strategy for the USGS Menlo Park Science Center in California (hereafter also referred to as "the Center"). The Center has been the flagship research center for the USGS in the western United States for more than 50 years, and the Council recognizes that science priorities must be the primary consideration guiding critical decisions made about the future evolution of the Center. In developing this strategy, the working group consulted widely within the USGS and with external clients and collaborators, so that most stakeholders had an opportunity to influence the science goals and operational objectives. The Science Goals are to: Natural Hazards: Conduct natural-hazard research and assessments critical to effective mitigation planning, short-term forecasting, and event response. Ecosystem Change: Develop a predictive understanding of ecosystem change that advances ecosystem restoration and adaptive management. Natural Resources: Advance the understanding of natural resources in a geologic, hydrologic, economic, environmental, and global context. Modeling Earth System Processes: Increase and improve capabilities for quantitative simulation, prediction, and assessment of Earth system processes. The strategy presents seven key Operational Objectives with specific actions to achieve the scientific goals. These Operational Objectives are to: Provide a hub for technology, laboratories, and library services to support science in the Western Region. Increase advanced computing capabilities and promote sharing of these resources. Enhance the intellectual diversity, vibrancy, and capacity of the work force through improved recruitment and retention. Strengthen client and collaborative relationships in the community at an institutional level. Expand monitoring capability by increasing density, sensitivity, and efficiency and reducing costs of instruments and networks. Encourage a breadth of scientific capabilities in Menlo Park to foster interdisciplinary science. Communicate USGS science to a diverse audience.

Circular↗
USGS2025

The diel niche of brown bears: Constraints on adaptive capacity in human-modified landscapes

D Diel activity rhythms, representing the behavioral pattern of the sleep–wake cycle, may be adjusted by wildlife in response to changes in environmental conditions. An increase in nocturnality is typically recognized as an adaptive strategy to segregate from humans and mitigate heat stress. Numerous studies have investigated spatial patterns and habitat use of large carnivores in human-modified landscapes, but little research has examined their activity rhythms. We compiled Global Positioning System data (2004–2022) for 139 brown bears Ursus arctos from six populations across Europe, representing a human-modified landscape, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, U.S.A., representing a landscape with limited human impact, which we used to calculate hourly movement rates as an activity proxy. Using a Bayesian approach to model the temporal autocorrelation of activity data, we tested if the extent of nocturnality in brown bears is modulated by intensity of human encroachment, accounting for primary productivity and maximum ambient temperature. All bear populations exhibited a predominantly bimodal, crepuscular pattern of activity, although Yellowstone bears were proportionally more crepuscular and diurnal. Whereas the effect of primary productivity was variable, all European populations became more nocturnal in response to higher human encroachment and reduced diurnal and crepuscular activity at higher summer temperatures, decreasing overall diel activity levels. Yellowstone bears displayed the greatest shift towards nocturnality among all populations in response to increasing human encroachment, and increased nocturnal activity to compensate for lower diurnal and crepuscular activity at higher summer temperatures. Our research indicates that European bears in human-modified landscapes may be reaching a limit in the behavioral plasticity they can manifest in their activity patterns, being already constrained into increased nocturnality. Our findings enhance the understanding of brown bear adaptive capacity to accommodate future changes, such as urbanization and increasing temperatures, to the ecosystems they inhabit.

Ecography↗
USGS2024

Rising water temperature in rivers: Ecological impacts and future resilience

Rising water temperatures in rivers due to climate change are already having observable impacts on river ecosystems. Warming water has both direct and indirect impacts on aquatic life, and further aggravates pervasive issues such as eutrophication, pollution, and the spread of disease. Animals can survive higher temperatures through physiological and/or genetic acclimation, behavioral and phenological change, and range shifts to more suitable locations. As such, those animals that are adapted to cool-water regions typically found in high altitudes and latitudes where there are fewer dispersal opportunities are most at risk of future extinction. However, sub-lethal impacts on animal physiology and phenology, body-size, and trophic interactions could have significant population-level effects elsewhere. Rivers are vulnerable to warming because historic management has typically left them exposed to solar radiation through the removal of riparian shade, and hydrologically disconnected longitudinally, laterally, and vertically. The resilience of riverine ecosystems is also limited by anthropogenic simplification of habitats, with implications for the dispersal and resource use of resident organisms. Due to the complex indirect impacts of warming on ecosystems, and the species-specific physiological and behavioral response of organisms to warming, predicting how river ecosystems will change in the future is challenging. Restoring rivers to provide connectivity and heterogeneity of conditions would provide resilience to a range of expected co-occurring pressures, including warming, and should be considered a priority as part of global strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2011

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates assessment of current and future consequences of a changing climate, emphasizes regional differences in biophysical factors, and points to linkages that may exist but that currently lack supporting research. The framework also serves as a visual tool for resource managers and policy makers to develop regional and global management strategies and to inform policies related to climate mitigation and adaptation.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2018

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one‐time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km 2 of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process‐based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather‐centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.

Great Basin↗
USGS2023

Where can managers effectively resist climate-driven ecological transformation in pinyon-juniper woodlands of the US Southwest?

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are an important component of dryland ecosystems across the US West and are potentially susceptible to ecological transformation. However, predicting woodland futures is complicated by species-specific strategies for persisting and reproducing under drought conditions, uncertainty in future climate, and limitations to inferring demographic rates from forest inventory data. Here, we leverage new demographic models to quantify how climate change is expected to alter population demographics in five PJ tree species in the US West and place our results in the context of a climate adaptation framework to resist, accept, or direct ecological transformation. Two of five study species, Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma , are projected to experience population declines, driven by both rising mortality and decreasing recruitment rates. These declines are reasonably consistent across various climate futures, and the magnitude of uncertainty in population growth due to future climate is less than uncertainty due to how demographic rates will respond to changing climate. We assess the effectiveness of management to reduce tree density and mitigate competition, and use the results to classify southwest woodlands into areas where transformation is (a) unlikely and can be passively resisted, (b) likely but may be resisted by active management, and (c) likely unavoidable, requiring managers to accept or direct the trajectory. Population declines are projected to promote ecological transformation in the warmer and drier PJ communities of the southwest, encompassing 37.1%–81.1% of our sites, depending on future climate scenarios. Less than 20% of sites expected to transform away from PJ have potential to retain existing tree composition by density reduction. Our results inform where this adaptation strategy could successfully resist ecological transformation in coming decades and allow for a portfolio design approach across the geographic range of PJ woodlands.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2014

Assessing the risk persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2008

Stress tolerance in plants via habitat-adapted symbiosis

We demonstrate that native grass species from coastal and geothermal habitats require symbiotic fungal endophytes for salt and heat tolerance, respectively. Symbiotically conferred stress tolerance is a habitat-specific phenomenon with geothermal endophytes conferring heat but not salt tolerance, and coastal endophytes conferring salt but not heat tolerance. The same fungal species isolated from plants in habitats devoid of salt or heat stress did not confer these stress tolerances. Moreover, fungal endophytes from agricultural crops conferred disease resistance and not salt or heat tolerance. We define habitat-specific, symbiotically-conferred stress tolerance as habitat-adapted symbiosis and hypothesize that it is responsible for the establishment of plants in high-stress habitats. The agricultural, coastal and geothermal plant endophytes also colonized tomato (a model eudicot) and conferred disease, salt and heat tolerance, respectively. In addition, the coastal plant endophyte colonized rice (a model monocot) and conferred salt tolerance. These endophytes have a broad host range encompassing both monocots and eudicots. Interestingly, the endophytes also conferred drought tolerance to plants regardless of the habitat of origin. Abiotic stress tolerance correlated either with a decrease in water consumption or reactive oxygen sensitivity/generation but not to increased osmolyte production. The ability of fungal endophytes to confer stress tolerance to plants may provide a novel strategy for mitigating the impacts of global climate change on agricultural and native plant communities.The ISME Journal (2008) 2, 404-416; doi:10.1038/ismej.2007.106; published online 7 February 2008. ?? 2008 International Society for Microbial Ecology All rights reserved.

ISME Journal↗