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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Proceedings of the workshop on alternative futures: Accounting for growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

This workshop provided a forum for identifying and discussing policies and assumptions for use in creating regionally consistent alternative future land-use scenarios. The alternative scenarios will help to inform how planning can potentially be used as a primary Best Management Practice by identifying land-use policies and other planning actions that can be taken to minimize future increases in nutrients and sediments associated with the spatial pattern and intensity of land development. The Chesapeake Bay Program Office will run these scenarios through the watershed model to quantify the differences in loadings achieved through implementation of land-use policies and to help assess the uncertainty associated with the current trend forecast. In addition, the outcomes of this workshop can assist jurisdictions in planning for growth with respect to minimizing future increases in nutrient and sediment associated with land development. Ultimately, this workshop was intended to provide jurisdictions with information that can be used to better account for refinement of their Watershed Implementation Plans.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗
USGS1975

Land-use classification of the greater Denver area, Front Range Urban Corridor, Colorado

The Greater Denver area, in the Front Range Urban Corridor of Colorado, is an area of rapid population growth and expanding land development. At present no overall land-use policy exists for this area, although man individuals and groups are concerned about environmental, economic, and social stresses caused by population pressures. A well-structured land-use policy for the entire Front Range Urban Corridor, in which compatible land uses are taken into account, could lead to overall improvements in land values. A land classification map is the first step toward implementing such a policy.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-economic, environmental and landscape pattern metrics. The purpose of our study is to evaluate how future scenarios of population densities and climate warming will jointly affect water demand across two rapidly growing U.S. states (North Carolina and South Carolina). Our forecasts indicate that regional water demand by 2065 will increase by 37%–383% relative to the baseline in 2010, across all scenarios of change. Our results show future water demand will increase under rising temperatures, but could be ameliorated by policies that promote higher density development and urban infill. These water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction in water demand and up to 25% reduction locally for counties with the highest expected population growth by 2065. For rural counties experiencing depopulation, the land use policies we considered are insufficient to significantly reduce water demand. For expanding communities seeking to increase their adaptive capacity to changing socio-environmental conditions, our framework can assist in developing sustainable solutions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2008

The Landslide Handbook - A Guide to Understanding Landslides

This handbook is intended to be a resource for people affected by landslides to acquire further knowledge, especially about the conditions that are unique to their neighborhoods and communities. Considerable literature and research are available concerning landslides, but unfortunately little of it is synthesized and integrated to address the geographically unique geologic and climatic conditions around the globe. Landslides occur throughout the world, under all climatic conditions and terrains, cost billions in monetary losses, and are responsible for thousands of deaths and injuries each year. Often, they cause long-term economic disruption, population displacement, and negative effects on the natural environment. Outdated land-use policies may not always reflect the best planning for use of land that is vulnerable to landslides. The reasons for poor or nonexistent land-use policies that minimize the perceived or actual danger and damage potential from geologic hazards are many and encompass the political, cultural, and financial complexities and intricacies of communities. Landslides often are characterized as local problems, but their effects and costs frequently cross local jurisdictions and may become State or Provincial or national problems. Growing populations may be limited in their geographic expansion, except to occupy unstable, steep, or remote areas. Often, stabilizing landslide-scarred areas is too costly, and some inhabitants have no other places to relocate. Fortunately, simple, 'low-tech' precautions and actions can be adopted to at least ensure an individual's immediate safety, and this handbook gives a brief overview of many of these options. We strongly suggest that, where possible, the assistance of professional engineers/geologists or those experienced in the successful mitigation of unstable slopes be consulted before actions are taken. This handbook helps homeowners, community and emergency managers, and decisionmakers to take the positive step of encouraging awareness of available options and recourse in regard to landslide hazard. We provide a list of references, available in print or on the World Wide Web (Internet), that can be used for further knowledge about landslides. We recommend this handbook to managers and decisionmakers in communities in the hope that the information will be disseminated by such officials to other members of those communities. In response to the differing levels of literacy around the globe, we have emphasized visual information through the use of photographs and graphics. We plan to translate the handbook into additional languages as funding permits to further facilitate its use. We welcome comments and critiques and have provided our contact information and the names and addresses of our respective agencies.

Circular↗
USGS2014

Simulating future residential property losses from wildfire in Flathead County, Montana

Wildfire damages to private residences in the United States and elsewhere have increased as a result of expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and other factors. Understanding this unwelcome trend requires analytical frameworks that simulate how various interacting social, economic, and biophysical factors influence those damages. A methodological framework is developed for simulating expected residential property losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], which is a probabilistic monetary measure of wildfire risk to residential properties in the WUI. E(RLW) is simulated for Flathead County, Montana for five, 10-year subperiods covering the period 2010-2059, under various assumptions about future climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management. Results show statistically significant increases in the spatial extent of WUI properties, the number of residential structures at risk from wildfire, and E(RLW) over the 50-year evaluation period for both the county and smaller subareas (i.e., neighborhoods and parcels). The E(RLW) simulation framework presented here advances the field of wildfire risk assessment by providing a finer-scale tool that incorporates a set of dynamic, interacting processes. The framework can be applied using other scenarios for climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management, and in other areas.

Montana↗
USGS2020

Winter versus summer habitat selection in a threatened ground squirrel

Hibernation is a strategy many species employ to survive periods of thermal stress or resource shortage (e.g., harsh thermal conditions, food limitations) and habitat requirements of hibernating species may differ between summer (the active season) and winter (during hibernation). Accounting for seasonal differences in habitat affinities will help ensure that management actions are more beneficial and land-use policies are more appropriate. The northern Idaho ground squirrel ( Urocitellus brunneus ) is a federally listed threatened species that is in decline and hibernates for approximately 8 months per year. We collared northern Idaho ground squirrels in Adams County, Idaho from 2013–2017. The majority of northern Idaho ground squirrels we collared selected hibernacula outside of the areas they used during the active season. Furthermore, habitat features of hibernacula locations differed from habitat features of active-season areas. Hibernacula locations had greater canopy closure compared to active-season locations (36.9% and 7.0% canopy closure, respectively) and hibernaculum habitat features (particularly distance to nearest log) influenced overwinter survival. Our results suggest that recovery efforts for northern Idaho ground squirrels should include protection and management for the full range of habitat conditions used throughout summer and winter. More broadly, we emphasize the need to identify and protect habitat during all seasons because habitat requirements can differ substantially during different portions of an animal's annual cycle and effective conservation will require management of year-round habitat needs.

Idaho↗
USGS2010

National ecosystem assessments supported by scientific and local knowledge

An understanding of the extent of land degradation and recovery is necessary to guide land-use policy and management, yet currently available land-quality assessments are widely known to be inadequate. Here, we present the results of the first statistically based application of a new approach to national assessments that integrates scientific and local knowledge. Qualitative observations completed at over 10 000 plots in the United States showed that while soil degradation remains an issue, loss of biotic integrity is more widespread. Quantitative soil and vegetation data collected at the same locations support the assessments and serve as a baseline for monitoring the effectiveness of policy and management initiatives, including responses to climate change. These results provide the information necessary to support strategic decisions by land managers and policy makers. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2024

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2023. Included in this update are changes in terminology. Specifically, we now use the terms Period 1 (previously Long), Period 2 (previously Medium/Long), Period 3 (previously Medium), Period 4 (previously Short/Medium), Period 5 (previously Short), and Period 6 (previously Recent) to identify specific trends. State-space models estimated 2.8-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. Average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.1 and 3.1 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Population growth during 2022 and 2023 continue to point to 2021 as the most recent range-wide nadir.

Data Report↗
USGS2022

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2021

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021) and includes the addition of three analytical updates: (1) identification of population nadirs (lowest points within cycles) at the lek (breeding ground) and neighborhood cluster (group of leks) spatial scales, (2) truncation of prior distributions on rate of change in apparent abundance values to more realistic boundaries for leks with missing data, and (3) addition of 2 years of population lek count data (2020 and 2021) to the current dataset (1953–2021). Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2–4.6). Cumulative declines were 42.5, 65.6, and 80.1 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. These results indicate that range-wide populations continued to decline during 2020 and 2021, although two climate clusters (eastern area and Bi-State area) have shown growth in population abundance in recent years, indicating they have surpassed a recent population abundance nadir.

Data Report↗
USGS2023

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2022

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporated population lek count data through 2022. Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2–4.7). Cumulative declines were 40.9, 65.0, and 79.6 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. These results indicate that the most recent nadir for range-wide populations occurred during 2021. However, growth during 2022 was modest, making 2021 a tentative final nadir at this point.

Data Report↗
USGS2025

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2024

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefiting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated a 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide in Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗
USGS2000

Effects of climate variability and human activities on Chesapeake Bay and the implications for ecosystem restoration

Chesapeake Bay, the Nation’s largest and most productive estuary (fig. 1), faces complex environmental issues related to nutrients and oxygen, turbidity and sedimentation, toxic dinoflagellates, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a partnership among the Chesapeake Bay Commission, the Federal Government, the District of Columbia, and the States of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The CBP is working to preserve, restore, and protect the bay’s living resources, vital habitats, and water quality, to protect human health, and to promote sound land-use policies in the watershed. The CBP began to set restoration goals for the ecosystem in the mid-1980’s and is now refining current goals and setting new ones as part of a new bay agreement— Chesapeake 2000. As the CBP sets restoration goals for the next 10–20 years, it will be critical to understand the long-term changes of the bay ecosystem due to climate variability and the influence of past and future human activities. For the past 4 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been engaged in research designed to provide objective scientific answers to questions about long-term changes in the bay ecosystem: What paleoecological and geochemical methods are best for documenting trends in the bay ecosystem? How does climate variability, including drought, affect the bay? What are historical trends in dissolved oxygen? What is the relationship between sedimentation and water clarity, and what is the effect of turbidity on living resources? How have past land-use changes affected bay habitats and living resources?

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗
USGS1975

Water and the South Florida environment

Ecological problems are a major concern to Florida as well as to the Nation. National attention was focused on these problems in September 1968, when the Port Authority of Dade County began to con- struct a jetport for supersonic aircraft on a 39-square-mile tract 6 miles north of Everglades National Park and on the east edge of the Big Cypress Swamp. Conservation groups and citizens raised questions as to the effects of a regional jetport and the attendant satellite growth on the water resources and biological communities of the National Park. The Department of the Interior began studies to investigate the situation. One study, Leopold (1969), reported on the unfavorable ecological effects of the attendant satellite growth. Then Secretary of the Interior, Walter J. Hickel, directed the U.S. Geological Survey to study the water resources of the Big Cypress to determine which parts of the Big Cypress contribute the major part of the water necessary to maintain adequate water supplies for Everglades National Park. This was done in a report by Klein and others (1970). At about the same time, the Departments of interior and Transportation, the State of Florida, and the Dade County Port Authority con-curred in assigning to the Secretary of the Interior certain responsibilities for planning, developing, and coordinating an ecological study of south Florida. A primary objective of the ecological study is to provide information that will assist in the formulation of land-use policy consistent with the protection of the environment of Everglades National Park, the adjacent estuaries, and the public water supplies. The part of the investigation describing the surface-water and ground-water resources of south Florida was assigned to the Geological Survey. The quantity and quality of surface water and ground water and their interrelation with estuarine and marine waters are here considered. Also considered are the problems, present or future, related to the hydrologic environment that involve human, animal, and plant life. Changes taking place, apparent trends, and projections for the future are also considered, as well as alternatives for water management. The Geological Survey effort began in January 1971, when aerial photography and selected qualitative hydrologic data were obtained. However, most of the information upon which this report Is based was obtained by the Geological Survey in cooperative programs with several local, State, and Federal agencies since about 1940. The long-term support of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service, U.S. Navy, Florida Department of Natural Resources, Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier Counties, Miami and Miami Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Naples and others in the collection of data is gratefully acknowledged. A prolonged drought throughout south Florida from September 1970 to May 1971 accentuated the importance and timeliness of the study. The drought brought about a readvance of sea-water intrusion in many coastal areas, which necessitated restrictions on water use. The effect of drought on the regional water supply, continued population growth and increased water demands, and deterioration of the water quality in many of the canals and waterways of the urban areas accentuated the need for improved water management and land-use planning. As a result of the water crisis, the Governor of Florida called a special conference in September 1971. The conference, attended by foremost scientific and government personnel, proposed creation of an agency that would develop and implement comprehensive land and water-use plans for south Florida that would minimize environmental degradation.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2019

Risk at the margins: A natural hazards perspective on the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk analysis is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent armed conflict in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, self-settling throughout the country through urban integration and informal encampment due to Lebanon's prohibition of formal refugee camps. The Syrian-Lebanon refugee crisis coincides with the recent reexamination of the established aid practice of camp-based resettlement, focused on issues of aid efficacy, security, and human dignity but lacking an environmental hazards perspective. In light of these issues, we quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon, finding a 75% increase in landslide risk since the start of the Syrian crisis. The risk is highest in the debris flow-prone mountains of central and northeastern Lebanon. Additionally, Syrian refugees settled in informal camps experience 9–11 times greater risk then urban populations due to sub-standard shelter, suggesting that urban rather than camp-based resettlement policies are preferable from an environmental-hazards perspective.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2019

Quantitative coseismic and precipitation-induced landslide risk mapping for the country of Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk assessment is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent events in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. In 2011, armed conflict in the region precipitated the largest refugee crisis in a generation. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, rapidly changing the population distribution in geomorphically-active areas of the country. We use a multi-step process to quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon throughout the ongoing Syrian conflict. First, mode-specific geotechnical models are utilized to assess the individual hazard contributions of a suite of triggering scenarios and types of landslides appropriate to the varied terrain of Lebanon. Second, vulnerability estimates and population data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) are combined to produce scenario-specific risk. Finally, risk data is aggregated to create a comprehensive landslide risk profile for Syrian refugees in Lebanon and compared to that of the pre-conflict Lebanese population.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

Fisheries↗
USGS2017

Grand challenges in the management and conservation of North American inland fishes and fisheries

Even with long-standing management and extensive science support, North American inland fish and fisheries still face many conservation and management challenges. We used a grand challenges approach to identify critical roadblocks that if removed would help solve important problems in the management and long-term conservation of North American inland fish and fisheries. We identified seven grand challenges within three themes (valuation, governance, and externalities) and 34 research needs and management actions. The major themes identified are to (1) raise awareness of diverse values associated with inland fish and fisheries, (2) govern inland fish and fisheries to satisfy multiple use and conservation objectives, and (3) ensure productive inland fisheries given nonfishing sector externalities. Addressing these grand challenges will help the broader community understand the diverse values of inland fish and fisheries, promote open forums for engagement of diverse stakeholders in fisheries management, and better integrate the inland fish sector into the greater water and land use policy process.

Fisheries↗