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Results for “Journal of Theoretical Biology”

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16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS1971

Trees and streams: The efficiency of branching patterns

Extending the analysis of branching patterns of the drainage net of rivers, originated by Horton, the relation of average numbers and lengths of tree branches to size of branch was investigated. Size of branch was defined by branch order, or its position in the hierarchy of tributaries. It was found that, as in river drainage nets, there is a definite logarithmic relation between branch order and lengths and numbers. This definite relation is quantitatively comparable, within limits, among river networks, tree branching systems, and several random-walk models in both two and three dimensions. Such a relation appears to be the most probable under the applicable constraints. Moreover the most probable arrangement appears to minimize the total length of all stems in the branching system within other constraints and so, to that extent, achieves a certain efficiency.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗
USGS2017

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt ( Taricha torosa ), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗
USGS2018

A parasitism-mutualism-predation model consisting of crows, cuckoos and cats with stage-structure and maturation delays on crows and cuckoos

In this paper, a parasitism-mutualism-predation model is proposed to investigate the dynamics of multi-interactions among cuckoos, crows and cats with stage-structure and maturation time delays on cuckoos and crows. The crows permit the cuckoos to parasitize their nestlings (eggs) on the crow chicks (eggs). In return, the cuckoo nestlings produce a malodorous cloacal secretion to protect the crow chicks from predation by the cats, which is apparently beneficial to both the crow and cuckoo population. The multi-interactions, i.e., parasitism and mutualism between the cuckoos (nestlings) and crows (chicks), predation between the cats and crow chicks are modeled both by Holling-type II and Beddington-DeAngelis-type functional responses. The existence of positive equilibria of three subsystems of the model are discussed. The criteria for the global stability of the trivial equilibrium are established by the Krein-Rutman Theorem and other analysis methods. Moreover, the threshold dynamics for the coexistence and weak persistence of the model are obtained, and we show, both analytically and numerically, that the stabilities of the interior equilibria may change with the increasing maturation time delays. We find there exists an evident difference in the dynamical properties of the parasitism-mutualism-predation model based on whether or not we consider the effects of stage-structure and maturation time delays on cuckoos and crows. Inclusion of stage structure results in many varied dynamical complexities which are difficult to encompass without this inclusion.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗
USGS2020

Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions: A comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting

Infectious disease epidemics present a difficult task for policymakers, requiring the implementation of control strategies under significant time constraints and uncertainty. Mathematical models can be used to predict the outcome of control interventions, providing useful information to policymakers in the event of such an epidemic. However, these models suffer in the early stages of an outbreak from a lack of accurate, relevant information regarding the dynamics and spread of the disease and the efficacy of control. As such, recommendations provided by these models are often incorporated in an ad hoc fashion, as and when more reliable information becomes available. In this work, we show that such trial-and-error-type approaches to management, which do not formally take into account the resolution of uncertainty and how control actions affect this, can lead to sub-optimal management outcomes. We compare three approaches to managing a theoretical epidemic: a non-adaptive management (AM) approach that does not use real-time outbreak information to adapt control, a passive AM approach that incorporates real-time information if and when it becomes available, and an active AM approach that explicitly incorporates the future resolution of uncertainty through gathering real-time information into its initial recommendations. The structured framework of active AM encourages the specification of quantifiable objectives, models of system behaviour and possible control and monitoring actions, followed by an iterative learning and control phase that is able to employ complex control optimisations and resolve system uncertainty. The result is a management framework that is able to provide dynamic, long-term projections to help policymakers meet the objectives of management. We investigate in detail the effect of different methods of incorporating up-to-date outbreak information. We find that, even in a highly simplified system, the method of incorporating new data can lead to different results that may influence initial policy decisions, with an active AM approach to management providing better information that can lead to more desirable outcomes from an epidemic.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗
USGS2006

Understanding the genetic effects of recent habitat fragmentation in the context of evolutionary history: Phylogeography and landscape genetics of a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus)

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to urbanization are the most pervasive threats to biodiversity in southern California. Loss of habitat and fragmentation can lower migration rates and genetic connectivity among remaining populations of native species, reducing genetic variability and increasing extinction risk. However, it may be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric fragmentation due to previous natural geological and climatic changes. To address these challenges, we examined the phylogenetic and population genetic structure of a flightless insect endemic to cismontane southern California, Stenopelmatus 'mahogani' (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae). Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequence data suggest that diversification across southern California began during the Pleistocene, with most haplotypes currently restricted to a single population. Patterns of genetic divergence correlate with contemporary urbanization, even after correcting for (geographical information system) GIS-based reconstructions of fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Theoretical simulations confirm that contemporary patterns of genetic structure could be produced by recent urban fragmentation using biologically reasonable assumptions about model parameters. Diversity within populations was positively correlated with current fragment size, but not prehistoric fragment size, suggesting that the effects of increased drift following anthropogenic fragmentation are already being seen. Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity can hinder a population's ability to adapt to ecological perturbations commonly associated with urbanization, such as habitat degradation, climatic changes and introduced species. Consequently, our results underscore the importance of preserving and restoring landscape connectivity for long-term persistence of low vagility native species. Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2009

Sex, season, and time of day interact to affect body temperatures of the Giant Gartersnake

1.We examined multiple hypotheses regarding differences in body temperatures of the Giant Gartersnake using temperature-sensitive radio telemetry and an information-theoretic analytical approach.2.Giant Gartersnakes selected body temperatures near 30 ??C, and males and females had similar body temperatures most of the year, except during the midsummer gestation period.3.Seasonal differences in the body temperatures of males and females may relate to both the costs associated with thermoregulatory behavior, such as predation, and the benefits associated with maintaining optimal body temperatures, such as successful incubation.

Journal of Thermal Biology↗
USGS2005

Are all prey created equal? A review and synthesis of differential predation on prey in substandard condition

Our understanding of predator-prey interactions in fishes has been influenced largely by research assuming that the condition of the participants is normal. However, fish populations today often reside in anthropogenically altered environments and are subjected to many kinds of stressors, which may reduce their ecological performance by adversely affecting their morphology, physiology, or behaviour. One consequence is that either the predator or prey, or both, may be in a substandard condition at the time of an interaction. We reviewed the literature on predator-prey interactions in fishes where substandard prey were used as experimental groups. Although most of this research indicates that such prey are significantly more vulnerable to predation, prey condition has rarely been considered in ecological theory regarding predator-prey interactions. The causal mechanisms for increased vulnerability of substandard prey to predation include a failure to detect predators, lapses in decision-making, poor fast-start performance, inability to shoal effectively, and increased prey conspicuousness. Despite some problems associated with empirical predator-prey studies using substandard prey, their results can have theoretical and applied uses, such as in ecological modelling or justification of corrective measures to be implemented in the wild. There is a need for more corroborative field experimentation, a better understanding of the causal mechanisms behind differential predation, and increased incorporation of prey condition into the research of predator-prey modellers and theoreticians. If the concept of prey condition is considered in predator-prey interactions, our understanding of how such interactions influence the structure and dynamics of fish communities is likely to change, which should prove beneficial to aquatic ecosystems.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2007

A new towed platform for the unobtrusive surveying of benthic habitats and organisms

Maps of coral ecosystems are needed to support many conservation and management objectives, as well as research activities. Examples include ground-truthing aerial and satellite imagery, characterizing essential habitat, assessing changes, and monitoring the progress of restoration efforts. To address some of these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Along-Track Reef-Imaging System (ATRIS), a boat-based sensor package for mapping shallow-water benthic environments. ATRIS consists of a digital still camera, a video camera, and an acoustic depth sounder affixed to a moveable pole. This design, however, restricts its deployment to clear waters less than 10 m deep. To overcome this limitation, a towed version has been developed, referred to as Deep ATRIS. The system is based on a light-weight, computer-controlled, towed vehicle that is capable of following a programmed diving profile. The vehicle is 1.3 m long with a 63-cm wing span and can carry a wide variety of research instruments, including CTDs, fluorometers, transmissometers, and cameras. Deep ATRIS is currently equipped with a high-speed (20 frames · s-1) digital camera, custom-built light-emitting-diode lights, a compass, a 3-axis orientation sensor, and a nadir-looking altimeter. The vehicle dynamically adjusts its altitude to maintain a fixed height above the seafloor. The camera has a 29° x 22° field-of-view and captures color images that are 1360 x 1024 pixels in size. GPS coordinates are recorded for each image. A gigabit ethernet connection enables the images to be displayed and archived in real time on the surface computer. Deep ATRIS has a maximum tow speed of 2.6 m · s-1and a theoretical operating tow-depth limit of 27 m. With an improved tow cable, the operating depth can be extended to 90 m. Here, we present results from the initial sea trials in the Gulf of Mexico and Biscayne National Park, Florida, USA, and discuss the utility of Deep ATRIS for map-ping coral reef habitats. Several example mosaics illustrate the high-quality imagery that can be obtained with this system. The images also reveal the potential for unobtrusive animal observations; fish and sea turtles are unperturbed by the presence of Deep ATRIS

Florida↗
USGS2018

Global dynamics of a mutualism–competition model with one resource and multiple consumers

Recent simulation modeling has shown that species can coevolve toward clusters of coexisting consumers exploiting the same limiting resource or resources, with nearly identical ratios of coefficients related to growth and mortality. This paper provides a mathematical basis for such as situation; a full analysis of the global dynamics of a new model for such a class of n -dimensional consumer–resource system, in which a set of consumers with identical growth to mortality ratios compete for the same resource and in which each consumer is mutualistic with the resource. First, we study the system of one resource and two consumers. By theoretical analysis, we demonstrate the expected result that competitive exclusion of one of the consumers can occur when the growth to mortality ratios differ. However, when these ratios are identical, the outcomes are complex. Either equilibrium coexistence or mutual extinction can occur, depending on initial conditions. When there is coexistence, interaction outcomes between the consumers can transition between effective mutualism, parasitism, competition, amensalism and neutralism. We generalize to the global dynamics of a system of one resource and multiple consumers. Changes in one factor, either a parameter or initial density, can determine whether all of the consumers either coexist or go to extinction together. New results are presented showing that multiple competing consumers can coexist on a single resource when they have coevolved toward identical growth to mortality ratios. This coexistence can occur because of feedbacks created by all of the consumers providing a mutualistic service to the resource. This is biologically relevant to the persistence of pollination–mutualisms.

Journal of Mathematical Biology↗
USGS2001

Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2002

Bet-hedging applications for conservation

One of the early tenets of conservation biology is that population viability is enhanced by maintaining multiple populations of a species. The strength of this tenet is justified by principles of bet-hedging. Management strategies that reduce variance in population size will also reduce risk of extinction. Asynchrony in population fluctuations in independent populations reduces variance in the aggregate of populations whereas environmental correlation among areas increases the risk that all populations will go extinct. We review the theoretical rationale of bet-hedging and suggest applications for conservation management of least terns in Nebraska and grizzly bears in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. The risk of extinction for least terns will be reduced if we can sustain the small central Platte River population in addition to the larger population on the lower Platte. Similarly, by restoring grizzly bears to the Bitterroot wilderness of Idaho and Montana can reduce the probability of extinction for grizzly bears in the Rocky Mountains of the United States by as much as 69-93%.

Journal of Biosciences↗
USGS2019

Testing theoretical metapopulation conditions with genotypic data from Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata)

The metapopulation concept has far-reaching implications in ecology and conservation biology. Hanski’s criteria operationally define metapopulations, yet testing them is hindered by logistical and financial constraints inherent to the collection of long-term demographic data. Hence, ecologists and conservationists often assume metapopulation existence for dispersal-limited species that occupy patchy habitats. To advance understanding of metapopulation theory and improve conservation of metapopulations, we used population and landscape genetic tools to develop a methodological framework for evaluating Hanski’s criteria. We used genotypic data (11 microsatellite loci) from a purported metapopulation of Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)) in Colorado, U.S.A., to test Hanski’s four criteria. We found support for each criterion: (1) significant genetic differentiation between wetlands, suggesting distinct breeding populations; (2) wetlands had small effective population sizes and recent bottlenecks, suggesting populations do not experience long-term persistence; (3) population graphs provided evidence of gene flow between patches, indicating potential for recolonization; and (4) multiscale bottleneck analyses suggest asynchrony, indicating that simultaneous extinction of all populations was unlikely. Our methodological framework provides a logistically and financially feasible alternative to long-term demographic data for identifying amphibian metapopulations.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

What common-garden experiments tell us about climate responses in plants

Common garden experiments are indoor or outdoor plantings of species or populations collected from multiple distinct geographic locations, grown together under shared conditions. These experiments examine a range of questions for theory and application using a variety of methods for analysis. The eight papers of this special feature comprise a cross section of contemporary approaches, summarized and synthesized here by what they tell us about the relationships between climate-related trait spectra and fitness optima. Four of the eight papers are based on field experiments in prairie, desert, Mediterranean and boreal biomes. Representative of many common garden experiments, these experiments reveal consistent evidence of traits varying with population climate provenance, but evidence of a tradeoff between growth and tolerance traits or of consistent fitness optimization at home is scant, in contrast to trait theory. Two synthesis papers highlight dominant patterns of trait divergence, including for an exotic invasive species. One theoretical paper warned that unknown kinship relationships between populations can result in the misidentification of adaptive trait divergence. A third synthesis paper formulated novel and ambitious goals for common-garden studies through including measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. The featured papers discuss multiple avenues for improving common garden studies. Genomic analysis, together with the quantification of kinship relationships, will continue to reveal the influence of environmental drivers on gene selection. Measuring a more complete set of fitness traits, especially for traits related to regeneration, will permit the development of projection models to explicitly link trait spectra, climate patterns and fitness consequences. More standardized data reporting will additionally improve abilities to synthesize findings across experiments. Testing population performance in competition with other species will produce more robust fitness comparisons between genotypes, especially for slower-growing genotypes in higher-resource environments. Adding gardens in and beyond climatic edge locations will furthermore strengthen the understanding of population failure and species exclusion. Finally, there is unrealized potential in adding ecosystem-level observations to common-garden studies that will enhance integrative analysis across scales of biological organization and scientific domains. Synthesis . With novel, creative designs, data integration and synthesis, common garden experiments will continue to advance the understanding of trait ensembles interacting with climate across scales of biological organization, provide pivotal data for global change models and guide ecological applications such as restoration of habitats for rare and climate sensitive species.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS1998

Estimator selection for closed-population capture: recapture

For valid statistical inference, it is important to select an appropriate statistical model. In the analysis of capture-recapture data under the closed-population models of Otis et al. (1978), information theoretic and hypothesis testing approaches to model selection are not practical, because some of the models have likelihoods with nonidenti- fiable parameters. A further problem is that, for some of the Otis et al. models, multiple estimators exist but there is no objective basis for deciding which estimator to use for a particular dataset. In CAPTURE, a computer program for estimating parameters un- der the closed models of Otis et al., a linear discriminant classifier is used to select an appropriate model. This classifier frequently selects the incorrect generating model in simulation studies, and it provides no guidance on which estimator to use once a model has been selected. In this study, we develop new classifiers for selecting the best esti- mator (as opposed to the generating model) and evaluate their performance. In addition, we investigate an estimator averaging approach to estimation that is a modification of the model averaging approach described by Buckland et al. (1997). We found that, in general, the overall performance of the new classifiers was unimpressive. In contrast, the estimator averaging approach we investigated performed well.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS2016

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex , an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2021

Evaluating establishment success of non-native fishes introduced to inland aquatic habitats of tropical Pacific islands

An information-theoretic approach was used to evaluate non-native freshwater fish species introduced to insular habitats of Hawaii and Guam comparing successful establishments vs. failures. Since the late 1800s, as many as 81 non-native freshwater fish species have been recorded as introduced to Hawaii and Guam (combined) and 50 (62%) of these are documented as having one or more established populations. We examined eleven independent variables to investigate establishment success by creating 21 a priori logistic regression models ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size. An additional eight post-hoc models were included that comprised the best a priori model and various combinations of individual variables. The best overall model of establishment probability included effects of taxonomic affinity (family membership), prior establishment success on other tropical islands, and hypoxia tolerance. Establishment success in Hawaii and Guam was highest for those species established on many other islands, and according to our best model air-breathing fishes were more likely to become established. Six fish families, each with from three to 18 species introduced to Pacific islands, were highly successful at establishment: Cichlidae (16 established of 18 species introduced), Poeciliidae (seven of eight), Cyprinidae (four of seven), Centrarchidae (four of four), Clariidae (three of three), and Loricariidae (three of four). Those that successfully established include both small and moderately large-bodied taxa, while representing a diverse array of other morphological and life-history traits. Pathways and motives associated with fish introductions in the Pacific have been linked to desires to develop aquaculture, enhance wild stocks of food, sport, and bait fishes, for use as biological control agents, or are linked to the ornamental fish trade. We found that many established species were introduced via multiple pathways (up to eight) and our analyses suggest that the combination of prior establishment success on other tropical islands and presence of non-native fishes in multiple pathways was indicative of high propagule pressure. Our study results and conclusions on Pacific tropical island introductions are in general agreement with previous studies on non-native freshwater fishes in other regions of the world and similar to observations in continental ecosystems and temperate zones.

Hawaii↗