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Use and interpretation of statistics in wildlife journals

Use and interpretation of statistics in wildlife journals are reviewed, and suggestions for improvement are offered. Populations from which inferences are to be drawn should be clearly defined, and conclusions should be limited to the range of the data analyzed. Authors should be careful to avoid improper methods of plotting data and should clearly define the use of estimates of variance, standard deviation, standard error, or confidence intervals. Biological and statistical significant are often confused by authors and readers. Statistical hypothesis testing is a tool, and not every question should be answered by hypothesis testing. Meeting assumptions of hypothesis tests is the responsibility of authors, and assumptions should be reviewed before a test is employed. The use of statistical tools should be considered carefully both before and after gathering data.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Machine learning application to assess occurrence and saturations of methane hydrate in marine deposits offshore India

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to assess methane hydrate occurrence and saturation in marine sediments offshore India. The ANN analysis classifies the gas hydrate occurrence into three types: methane hydrate in pore space, methane hydrate in fractures, or no methane hydrate. Further, predicted saturation characterizes the volume of gas hydrate with respect to the available void volume. Log data collected at six wells, which were drilled during the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02), provided a combination of well log measurements that were used as input for machine learning (ML) models. Well log measurements included density, porosity, electrical resistivity, natural gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity. Combinations of well logs used in the ML models provide good overall balanced accuracy (0.79 to 0.86) for the prediction of the gas hydrate occurrence and good accuracy (0.68 to 0.92) for methane hydrate saturation prediction in the marine accumulations against reference data. The accuracy scores indicate that the ML models can successfully predict reservoir characteristics for marine methane hydrate deposits. The results indicate that the ML models can either augment physics-driven methods for assessing the occurrence and saturation of methane hydrate deposits or serve as an independent predictive tool for those characteristics.

Journal Interpretation

Communicating darkness: Visitor preferences for dark sky interpretation

Utah parks are attracting an increasing number of visitors due to the quality dark sky viewing opportunities. Despite increasing engagement in nighttime recreation, limited research exists on visitor interest in interpretation for dark skies in state and national parks. Nighttime visitors at nine Utah state and national park units certified as dark sky parks were surveyed to evaluate their preferences for dark sky-related interpretive topics and communication methods. Visitors expressed the strongest interest in astronomy and improving dark sky viewing, with ranger-led programs emerging as the most favored delivery method. National park visitors showed greater interest than state park visitors in self-guided learning formats such as interpretive displays and mobile apps for topics such as dark sky viewing/astronomy and viewing wildlife at night. These findings highlight the benefits of diverse, yet targeted communication strategies to improve visitor experiences of dark skies and foster stewardship of natural darkness in parks.

Utah

Leave no trace communication: Effectiveness based on assessments of resource conditions

The efficacy of different Leave No Trace (LNT) communication interventions designed to persuade forest visitors to practice low-impact camping behaviors were evaluated. Three depreciative campsite behaviors—littering, tree damage, and surface disposal of human waste—were evaluated by before-and-after resource condition assessments. Three LNT communication interventions were evaluated against a control: (1) an LNT brochure and poster display (non-personal), (2) personal LNT communication by a forest naturalist, and (3) a combination of both non-personal and personal methods. The study population was overnight campers using dispersed road-accessed campsites in Western Maryland’s Green Ridge State Forest. LNT communication successfully improved resource conditions for the targeted depreciative behaviors. For litter and human waste, personal communication by a forest naturalist was effective, but the non-personal method was ineffective. In contrast, tree damage was significantly reduced by both non-personal and personal communication methods. Combining personal and non-personal communication efforts did not result in an increased benefit. The core implication of this study is that several camping resource impacts can be measurably reduced when uniformed staff personally communicate the desired low impact practices.

Journal of Interpretation Research

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey

Analysis of simulated advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection (ASTER) radiometer data of the Iron Hill, Colorado, study area for mapping lithologies

The advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection (ASTER) radiometer was designed to record reflected energy in nine channels with 15 or 30 m resolution, including stereoscopic images, and emitted energy in five channels with 90 m resolution from the NASA Earth Observing System AMI platform. A simulated ASTER data set was produced for the Iron Hill, Colorado, study area by resampling calibrated, registered airborne visible/infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, and thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS) data to the appropriate spatial and spectral parameters. A digital elevation model was obtained to simulate ASTER-derived topographic data. The main lithologic units in the area are granitic rocks and felsite into which a carbonatite stock and associated alkalic igneous rocks were intruded; these rocks are locally covered by Jurassic sandstone, Tertiary rhyolitic tuff, and colluvial deposits. Several methods were evaluated for mapping the main lithologic units, including the unsupervised classification and spectral curve-matching techniques. In the five thermalinfrared (TIR) channels, comparison of the results of linear spectral unmixing and unsupervised classification with published geologic maps showed that the main lithologic units were mapped, but large areas with moderate to dense tree cover were not mapped in the TIR data. Compared to TIMS data, simulated ASTER data permitted slightly less discrimination in the mafic alkalic rock series, and carbonatite was not mapped in the TIMS nor in the simulated ASTER TIR data. In the nine visible and near-infrared channels, unsupervised classification did not yield useful results, but both the spectral linear unmixing and the matched filter techniques produced useful results, including mapping calcitic and dolomitic carbonatite exposures, travertine in hot spring deposits, kaolinite in argillized sandstone and tuff, and muscovite in sericitized granite and felsite, as well as commonly occurring illite/muscovite. However, the distinction made in AVIRIS data between calcite and dolomite was not consistently feasible in the simulated ASTER data. Comparison of the lithologie information produced by spectral analysis of the simulated ASTER data to a photogeologic interpretation of a simulated ASTER color image illustrates the high potential of spectral analysis of ASTER data to geologic interpretation.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Science-based management of public lands in southern Nevada

Landmark legislation provides guiding principles for land management planning in southern Nevada and the rest of the United States. Such legislation includes, but is not limited to, the Forest Service Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S>C. 473-478, 479-482 and 551), National Park Service Organic Act of 1916 (U.S.C. Title 16, Secs. 1-4). Wilderness Act 1964 (P.L.88-577), National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (P.L. 91-190), Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 91-205), National Forest Management Act of of 1976 (P.L. 94-588), and Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579). The acts establishing congressionally designated areas within southern Nevada, such as Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Spring Mountains National Restoration Area, and Desert National Wildlife Refuge, also contain guidelines for the management of these lands. These documents variously require preservation of natural and cultural resource and wilderness character, protection of species, and prevention of undesirable environmental effects from land management actions. These requirements must be met while allowing for multiple "uses" of certain public lands (e.g. recreation, ranching, resources extraction, renewable energy development, etc.) to the degree that they do no threaten preservation, protection, and prevention goals,. many considerations some into play in the development and implementation for land management plans and actions. The planning process requires a balancing act that sometimes pit one need or priority against another. When priorities can trump other needs can prioritized and receive disproportionate consideration. Overall, the management of public lands is a very complicated and sometime contentious process. Science provides an objective way to help weigh quantifiable information and draw conclusions about the effects of past and potential future land management policies, decisions, and actions. When effectively integrated into adaptive management, science-based information can reduce uncertainties, increase knowledge, and improve decision making. However, the specific science information needed for effective management is often lacking or difficult to access or interpret. Science is typically reported in scientific journals as discrete units describing individual studies with other scientists as the primary audience. Translations of these studies an synthesis or multiple studies into formats that can be readily used in land management planning efforts are often lacking. Identifying and articulating the highest priority science and research needs is one of the primary purposes of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http://www.SNAP.gov) Science and Research Team (chapter 1; Turner and others 2009). The SNAP Science and Research Strategy (Strategy) calls for a synthesis report to be written every 5 years summarizing the state of knowledge, information gaps and management implications of scientific information as it relates to the SNAP Strategy goals (Turner and others 2009). This General Technical Report serves as the first SNAP Science and Research Synthesis Report (Synthesis Report) commissioned by the Science and Research Team. The Synthesis Report is mostly based on information form the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and is itself peer reviewed and constitutes a new contribution to the scientific literature. This final chapter addresses Sub-goal 2.3, which is to manage current and future authorized southern Nevada land uses in a manner that balances public need and ecosystem sustainability, and Sub-goal 2.5, which is to promote an effective conservation education and interpretation program to improve the quality of resources and enhance public use and enjoyment of southern Nevada public lands. It summarizes information form the previous chapters on what scientific information is known currently and what remains largely unknown, and it discusses how science can be used to make future management decisions that balances public needs and ecosystem sustainability.

Nevada

The use of a paired comparison model in ordering stratigraphic events

Data from lowest and highest occurrence events in several stratigraphic sections are analyzed by means of a paired comparison model with ties. The model produces an estimated relative geochronological ordering of these events. This ordering must be compared with actual observations for revision and interpretation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe

The study of fresh-water lake ice using multiplexed imaging radar

The study of ice in the upper Great Lakes, both from the operational and the scientific points of view, is receiving continued attention. Quantitative and qualitative field work is being conducted to provide the needed background for accurate interpretation of remotely sensed data. The data under discussion in this paper were obtained by a side-looking multiplexed airborne radar (SLAR) supplemented with ground-truth data. Because of its ability to penetrate adverse weather, radar is an especially important instrument for monitoring ice in the upper Great Lakes. It has previously been shown that imaging radars can provide maps of ice cover in these areas. However, questions concerning both the nature of the surfaces reflecting radar energy and the interpretation of the radar imagery continually arise. Our analysis of ice in Whitefish Bay (Lake Superior) indicates that the combination of the ice/water interlace and the ice/air interface is the major contributor to the radar backscatter as seen on the imagery At these frequencies the ice has a very low relative dielectric permittivity (< 3.0) and a low loss tangent Thus, this ice is somewhat transparent to the energy used by the imaging SLAR system. The ice types studied include newly formed black ice, pancake ice, and frozen and consolidated pack and brash ice. Although ice thickness cannot be measured directly from the received signals, it is suspected that by combining the information pertaining to radar backscatter with data on the meteorological and sea-state history of the area, together with some basic ground truth, better estimates of the ice thickness may be provided. In addition, certain ice features (e.g. ridges, ice-foot formation, areas of brash ice) may be identified with reasonable confidence. There is a continued need for additional ground work to verify the validity of imaging radars for these types of interpretations.

Upper Great Lakes

The travel-time ellipse: An approximate zone of transport

A zone of transport for a well is defined as the area in the horizontal plane bounded by a contour of equal ground-water travel time to the well. For short distances and ground-water travel times near a well, the potentiometric surface may be simulated analytically as that for a fully penetrating well in a uniform flow field. The zone of transport for this configuration is nearly elliptical. A simple method is derived to calculate a travel-time ellipse that approximates the zone of transport for a well in a uniform flow field. The travel-time ellipse was nearly congruent with the exact solution for the theoretical zone of transport for ground-water travel times of at least 10 years and for aquifer property values appropriate for southeastern Minnesota. For distances and travel times approaching infinity, however, the ellipse becomes slightly wider at its midpoint and narrower near its upgradient boundary than the theoretical zone of transport. The travel-time ellipse also may be used to simulate the plume area surrounding an injection well. However, the travel-time ellipse is an approximation that does not account for the effect of dispersion in enlarging the true area of an injection plume or zone of transport; hence, caution is advised in the use and interpretation of this simple construction.

Journal of Hydrology

The geochemistry of environmentally important trace elements in UK coals, with special reference to the Parkgate coal in the Yorkshire–Nottinghamshire Coalfield, UK

The Parkgate coal of Langsettian age in the Yorkshire–Nottinghamshire coalfield is typical of many coals in the UK in that it has a high sulphur (S) content. Detailed information on the distribution of the forms of S, both laterally and vertically through the seam, was known from previous investigations. In the present work, 38 interval samples from five measured sections of the coal were comprehensively analysed for major, minor and trace elements and the significance of the relationships established using both raw and centered log transformed data. The major elements are used to quantify the variations in the inorganic and organic coal components and determine the trace element associations. Pyrite contains nearly all of the Hg, As, Se, Tl and Pb and is also the major source of the Mo, Ni, Cd and Sb. The clays contain the following elements in decreasing order of association: Rb, Cs, Li, Ga, U, Cr, V, Sc, Y, Bi, Cu, Nb, Sn, Te and Th. Nearly all of the Rb is present in the clay fraction, whereas for elements such as V, Cu and U, a significant amount is thought to be present in the organic matter, based on the K vs trace element regression equations. Only Ge, and possibly Be, would appear to have a dominant organic source. The trace element concentrations are calculated for pyrite, the clay fraction and organic matter. For pyrite it is noted that concentrations agree with published data from the Yorkshire–Nottinghamshire coalfield and also that Tl concentrations (median of 0.33 ppm) in the pyrite are greater than either Hg or Cd. Unlike these elements, Tl has attracted less attention and possibly more information is needed on its anthropogenic distribution and impacts on man and the environment. A seawater source is thought to be responsible for the high concentrations of S, Cl and the non-detrital trace elements in the Parkgate coal. Indicative of the seawater control is the Th/U ratio, which expresses the detrital to non-detrital element contributions. Using other elements, similar ratios can be calculated, which in combination offer greater interpretative value.

Yorkshire–Nottinghamshire coalfield

Biogenic silica in Lake Baikal sediments: results from 1990-1992 American cores

The Lake Baikal Paleoclimate Project is a joint Russian-American program established to study the paleoclimate of Central Asia. During three summer field seasons, duplicate Russian and American cores were taken at a number of sites in different sedimentary environments in the lake. Eight cores returned to the U.S. were quantitatively analyzed for biogenic silica using a single-step 5-hour alkaline leach, followed by dissolved silicon analysis by inductively-coupled-plasma atomic-emission spectroscopy. Sediments of Holocene age in these cores have biogenic silica maxima that range from about 15 to 80 percent. An underlying zone in each core with low biogenic-silica concentrations (0 to 5 percent) dates from the last glacial maximum. The transition from the last glaciation to the present interglaciation, recorded by biogenic silica, began about 13,000 years ago. Biogenic silica profiles from these cores appear to be a good measure of past diatom productivity and a useful basis for paleoclimatic interpretations.

Lake Baikal

Oahu: perspective from space

Satellite remote sensing provides us with a unique perspective from space. This perspective is synoptic in nature and provides regional views of most of the land areas of the earth. The orbital characteristics of the Landsat system are such that repetitive imagery of the same area may be obtained. Because of the permanent nature of the imagery, it may be retrieved for comparative analysis at any time. Comparisons of this image of Oahu with maps of the island (for example, the Oahu, Hawaii, 1:250,000-scale topographic map) will enable the reader to readily identify the place names discussed in this article and permit a more detailed interpretation of the image.

Hawaii

Response of seabirds to fluctuations in forage fish density

Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill (EVOS), one concern was that prevailing ecological conditions in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) would not favor recovery of damaged seabird populations. To address this issue, we examined relationships between oceanography, forage fish and seabirds near three seabird colonies in lower Cook Inlet (LCI) in 1995-1999 (some colony work continued until 2001). Upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich GOA waters at the entrance to the shallow LCI estuary supports a high density of juvenile pollock, sand lance, and capelin; which in turn are exploited by high densities of breeding seabirds (murres, kittiwakes, puffins, etc.) on the east side of LCI. Waters on the west side of LCI are oceanographically distinct (warmer, less saline, outflowing), and much less productive for forage fish and seabirds. Patterns of seabird foraging behavior, productivity and population change reflected patterns of forage fish abundance and distribution, which in turn depended on local oceanography. Most seabird parameters varied with forage fish density in a non-linear (e.g., sigmoidal, exponential) fashion, and in some areas and years, productivity was limited by food availability. Current and projected ecological conditions favor recovery of seabirds from the EVOS at some colonies. In 14 chapters, this report summarizes data and compiles it into 247 tables, figures and appendices. Chapter 14 provides a thorough synthesis of overall project findings. Final analyses and interpretations of data will be published later in peer-reviewed journals (in addition to 61 articles already completed).

Report

Solubility measurements in the system CaSO4-NaCL-H2O at 35°, 50°, and 70°cand one atmosphere pressure

The solubilities in the system CaSO 4 - NaCl -H 2 O, at 1 atm pressure and 35° , 50° , and 70°C, have been determined by approaching the solubility curves from both the undersaturation and supersaturation sides. The experimental runs are of long duration, as much as 3 months; these rates should be commensurate with those of the appropriate geological processes, and so the results should be directly applicable to the interpretation of evaporite deposits.

Journal of Petrology

Comment on ‘Evidence for a large strike-slip component during the 1960 Chilean earthquake’ by H. Kanamori, L. Rivera, and S. Lambotte

Based on numerous studies of the relevant geodetic data, a low-angle thrusting mechanism has been assigned to the 1960 Chile earthquake. Kanamori, Rivera and Lambotte recently suggested that a component of dextral slip comparable to the thrusting be included in the mechanism to satisfy long-period, teleseismic observations. The absence of geodetic evidence for that huge strike-slip component is the subject of this comment. The geodetic data are largely measurements of coseismic uplift associated with the earthquake but include eight measurements of the coseismic change in shear strain. Because strike-slip produces relatively little uplift except near the end points of the rupture, identification of that strike-slip component in the geodetic data depends upon the measured, shear-strain change. I consider elastic, half-space models of oblique slip on the plate interface possibly supplemented by simultaneous dextral slip on the nearby, intra-arc Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone. Slip is assumed to be uniform along strike. The best fits to the geodetic data for these models furnish little evidence for strike-slip on those structures. To satisfy the long-period, teleseismic data, Kanamori et al . proposed six examples, each of which requires a large amount of dextral slip. Because the long-period, teleseismic data do not define the slip distributions, I have used the best fits of those examples to the geodetic data to define those distributions. The large thrusting near the deformation front required by those slip distributions implies large uplift there, contrary to the uplift inferred from the inversion of tsunami data. However, an acceptable fit to the geodetic data and the tsunami data for the six examples suggested by Kanamori et al . can be obtained if the seismic moments specified by them are reduced by a factor ∼1.8, a factor within the uncertainties in estimating seismic moments of the 1960 Chile earthquake. The presence of strike-slip in those reduced-moment examples despite the lack of geodetic evidence for strike-slip is due to a remarkable coincidence that requires careful balancing of contributions from the shallower (depths < 70 km) coseismic sources against those from the deeper coseismic sources to nullify the geodetic evidence for strike-slip. Such balancing is possible, but it is remarkable that the balancing is so nearly perfect that it nullifies the geodetic evidence for strike-slip and thereby confounds the interpretation of the geodetic data.

Geophysical Journal International