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USGS2008

Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States

Over the past 350 years, the eastern half of the United States experienced extensive land cover changes. These began with land clearing in the 1600s, continued with widespread deforestation, wetland drainage, and intensive land use by 1920, and then evolved to the present-day landscape of forest regrowth, intensive agriculture, urban expansion, and landscape fragmentation. Such changes alter biophysical properties that are key determinants of land-atmosphere interactions (water, energy, and carbon exchanges). To understand the potential implications of these land use transformations, we developed and analyzed 20-km land cover and biophysical parameter data sets for the eastern United States at 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 time slices. Our approach combined potential vegetation, county-level census data, soils data, resource statistics, a Landsat-derived land cover classification, and published historical information on land cover and land use. We reconstructed land use intensity maps for each time slice and characterized the land cover condition. We combined these land use data with a mutually consistent set of biophysical parameter classes, to characterize the historical diversity and distribution of land surface properties. Time series maps of land surface albedo, leaf area index, a deciduousness index, canopy height, surface roughness, and potential saturated soils in 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 illustrate the profound effects of land use change on biophysical properties of the land surface. Although much of the eastern forest has returned, the average biophysical parameters for recent landscapes remain markedly different from those of earlier periods. Understanding the consequences of these historical changes will require land-atmosphere interactions modeling experiments.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1997

Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m-2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2004

Effects of the fungicides mancozeb and chlorothalonil on fluxes of CO2, N2O, and CH4 in a fertilized Colorado grassland soil

[1] Management of agricultural soil plays an important role in present and future atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and methane (CH 4 ). Pesticides are used as management tools in crop production, but little is known about their effects on soil‐atmosphere exchange of CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 . Field studies described in this paper determined the effect of two commonly used fungicides, mancozeb and chlorothalonil, on trace gas exchange. Separate experimental plots, 1 m 2 , were established in nitrogen fertilized no‐tilled native grassland and tilled soils with and without fungicide application. Two studies were conducted. The first study was initiated in June 1999 and lasted for 1 year with monthly flux measurements from tilled and no‐till soils. The second study commenced in August 2001 with twelve weekly measurements from tilled soils only. From both studies mancozeb suppressed emissions of CO 2 and N 2 O in the tilled soil by an average of 28% and 47%, respectively. This suppression corresponded with efficacy periods of 14–29 and 56–77 days, respectively. From the no‐till soils mancozeb decreased CO 2 and N 2 O emissions by 33% and 80% for periods of 29 and 94 days, respectively. Mancozeb inhibited CH 4 consumption in the first study by 46% and 71% in the tilled and no‐till soil for periods of 8 and 29 days, respectively, but had no effect in the second study. From both studies chlorothalonil initially suppressed CO 2 and N 2 O emissions and enhanced CH 4 uptake in the tilled soil by an average of 37%, 40%, and 115%, respectively. These effects corresponded with efficacy periods of 14–29, 21–56, and 1–14 days, respectively. In the no‐till soil chlorothalonil inhibited CO 2 and N 2 O emissions and enhanced CH 4 uptake by 29%, 48%, and 86% for periods of 29, 56, and 56 days, respectively. Following the initial period of suppression, chlorothalonil subsequently enhanced N 2 O emissions in the tilled soil by an average of 51% and in the no‐till soil by 81% before returning to near background levels. The beginning of increased N 2 O emissions from the chlorothalonil‐amended plots corresponded with a maximum soil concentration of the chlorothalonil degradate, 4‐hydroxy‐2, 5, 6‐trichloroisophthalonitrile. The site specific global warming potential (GWP) resulting from the fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 from all soils was determined to decrease by an average 26% and 21% as a result of a single application of mancozeb or chlorothalonil, respectively. The decrease in CO 2 emissions in the fungicide‐amended plots potentially could result in the conservation of as much as 1200 and 2400 kg C ha −1 yr −1 organic carbon in the tilled and no‐till plots, respectively. Therefore it is feasible that application of certain fungicides to agricultural soil might lead to enhanced soil carbon sequestration and thus have additional positive effects on atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2011

The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze

In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP‐DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low‐level northerly flow and large‐scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low‐frequency variations of the sea breeze.

Florida↗

USGS2008

Northerly surface winds over the eastern North Pacific Ocean in spring and summer

Persistent spring and summer northerly surface winds are the defining climatological feature of the western coast of North America, especially south of the Oregon coast. Northerly surface winds are important for upwelling and a vast array of other biological, oceanic, and atmospheric processes. Intermittence in northerly coastal surface wind is characterized and wind events are quantitatively defined using coastal buoy data south of Cape Mendocino on the northern California coast. The defined wind events are then used as a basis for composites in order to explain the spatial evolution of various atmospheric and oceanic processes. Wind events involve large-scale changes in the three-dimensional atmospheric circulation including the eastern North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and southeast trade winds. Composites of QSCAT satellite scatterometer wind estimates from 1999 to 2005 based on a single coastal buoy indicate that wind events typically last 72-96 h and result in anomalies in surface wind and Ekman pumping that extend over 1000 kin from the west coast of North America. It may be useful to consider ocean circulation and dependent ecosystem dynamics and the distribution of temperature, moisture, and aerosols in the atmospheric boundary layer in the context of wind events defined herein. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2008

Diurnal and vertical variability of the sensible heat and carbon dioxide budgets in the atmospheric surface layer

The diurnal and vertical variability of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmospheric surface layer are studied by analyzing measurements from a 213 in tower in Cabauw (Netherlands). Observations of thermodynamic variables and CO2 mixing ratio as well as vertical profiles of the turbulent fluxes are used to retrieve the contribution of the budget terms in the scalar conservation equation. On the basis of the daytime evolution of turbulent fluxes, we calculate the budget terms by assuming that turbulent fluxes follow a linear profile with height. This assumption is carefully tested and the deviation ftom linearity is quantified. The budget calculation allows us to assess the importance of advection of heat and CO2 during day hours for three selected days. It is found that, under nonadvective conditions, the diurnal variability of temperature and CO2 is well reproduced from the flux divergence measurements. Consequently, the vertical transport due to the turbulent flux plays a major role in the daytime evolution of both scalars and the advection is a relatively small contribution. During the analyzed days with a strong contribution of advection of either heat or carbon dioxide, the flux divergence is still an important contribution to the budget. For heat, the quantification of the advection contribution is in close agreement with results from a numerical model. For carbon dioxide, we qualitatively corroborate the results with a Lagrangian transport model. Our estimation of advection is compared with, traditional estimations based on the Net Ecosystem-atmosphere Exchange (NEE). Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2003

Oxygen-18 concentrations in recent precipitation and ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau

A detailed study of the climatic significance of δ 18 O in precipitation was completed on a 1500 km southwest-northeast transect of the Tibetan Plateau in central Asia. Precipitation samples were collected at four meteorological stations for up to 9 years. This study shows that the gradual impact of monsoon precipitation affects the spatial variation of δ 18 O-T relationship along the transect. Strong monsoon activity in the southern Tibetan Plateau results in high precipitation rates and more depleted heavy isotopes. This depletion mechanism is described as a precipitation “amount effect” and results in a poor δ 18 O-T relationship at both seasonal and annual scales. In the middle of the Tibetan Plateau, the effects of the monsoon are diminished but continue to cause a reduced correlation of δ 18 O and temperature at the annual scale. At the monthly scale, however, a significant δ 18 O-T relationship does exist. To the north of the Tibetan Plateau beyond the extent of the effects of monsoon precipitation, δ 18 O in precipitation shows a strong temperature dependence. δ 18 O records from two shallow ice cores and historic air temperature data were compared to verify the modern δ 18 O-T relationship. δ 18 O in Dunde ice core was positively correlated with air temperature from a nearby meteorological station in the north of the plateau. The δ 18 O variation in an ice core from the southern Plateau, however, was inversely correlated with precipitation amount at a nearby meteorological station and also the accumulation record in the ice core. The long-term variation of δ 18 O in the ice core record in the monsoon regions of the southern Tibetan Plateau suggest past monsoon seasons were probably more expansive. It is still unclear, however, how changes in large-scale atmosphere circulation might influence summer monsoon precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2006

Atmospheric mercury emissions from substrates and fumaroles associated with three hydrothermal systems in the western United States

This paper quantifies atmospheric mercury (Hg) emissions from substrates and fumaroles associated with three hydrothermal systems: Lassen Volcanic Center, California (LVC); Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming (YC); and Dixie Valley, Nevada (DV). Substrate Hg fluxes were measured using field chamber methods at thermal and nonthermal sites. The highest Hg fluxes (up to 541 ng m −2 h −1 ) were measured at thermal active areas. Fluxes from altered and unaltered nonthermal sites were <10 ng m −2 h −1 and were comparable to those measured in natural low-Hg background regions for YC and DV, and at LVC they were slightly elevated. Similarly, reactive gaseous mercury concentrations were higher in thermal active areas. Using a Geographic Information System framework for scaling, estimated area-average Hg emissions from substrates were 0.9–3.8 ng m −2 h −1 at LVC, 0.8–2.8 ng m −2 h −1 at YC, and 0.4–0.5 ng m −2 h −1 at DV. At LVC, nonthermal areas were the primary substrate source of atmospheric Hg (>98%). At YC, substrate Hg emissions were dominated (50 to 90%) by acidically altered thermal areas. Substrate emissions at DV were low and primarily from nonthermal areas (66% to 75%). Fumarole emissions at LVC (91–146 kg yr −1 ) and YC (0.18–1.6 kg yr −1 for Mud Volcano) were estimated by applying Hg:H 2 O and Hg:CO 2 ratios in hydrothermal gas samples to H 2 O and CO 2 emissions. Applying total area-average emissions from substrates and thermal features at LVC, YC, and DV to similar systems across the conterminous United States, yearly atmospheric Hg emissions from active hydrothermal systems are projected to be 1.3–2.1 Mg.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2003

Multiple oxygen and sulfur isotopic analyses on water-soluble sulfate in bulk atmospheric deposition from the southwestern United States

Sulfate is a major component of bulk atmospheric deposition (including dust, aerosol, fog, and rain). We analyzed sulfur and oxygen isotopic compositions of water-soluble sulfate from 40 sites where year-round dust traps collect bulk atmospheric deposition in the southwestern United States. Average sulfur and oxygen isotopic compositions (δ 34 S and δ 18 O) are 5.8 ± 1.4 (CDT) and 11.2 ± 1.9 (SMOW) (n = 47), respectively. Samples have an oxygen 17 anomaly (Δ 17 O), with an average value of 1.0 ± 0.6‰. Except for a weak positive correlation between δ 18 O and Δ 17 O values (r 2 ≈ 0.4), no correlation exists for δ 18 O versus δ 34 S, Δ 17 O versus δ 34 S, or any of the three isotopic compositions versus elevation of the sample site. Exceptional positive Δ 17 O values (up to 4.23‰) are found in samples from sites in the vicinity of large cities or major highways, and near-zero Δ 17 O values are found in samples close to dry lakes. Comparison of isotopic values of dust trap sulfate and desert varnish sulfate from the region reveals that varnish sulfate has average isotopic values that are ∼4.8‰ lower for δ 18 O, ∼2.1‰ higher for δ 34 S, and ∼0.3‰ lower for Δ 17 O than those of the present-day bulk deposition sulfate. Although other factors could cause the disparity, this observation suggests a possibility that varnish sulfate may have recorded a long-term atmospheric sulfate deposition during the Holocene or Pleistocene, as well as the differences between sulfur and oxygen isotopic compositions of the preindustrial bulk deposition sulfate and those of the industrial era.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1997

Moss and soil contributions to the annual net carbon flux of a maturing boreal forest

We used input and decomposition data from 14 C studies of soils to determine rates of vertical accumulation of moss combined with carbon storage inventories on a sequence of burns to model how carbon accumulates in soils and moss after a stand-killing fire. We used soil drainage—moss associations and soil drainage maps of the old black spruce (OBS) site at the BOREAS northern study area (NSA) to areally weight the contributions of each moderately well drained, feathermoss areas; poorly drained sphagnum—feathermoss areas; and very poorly drained brown moss areas to the carbon storage and flux at the OBS NSA site. On this very old (117 years) complex of black spruce, sphagnum bog veneer, and fen systems we conclude that these systems are likely sequestering 0.01–0.03 kg C m −2 yr −1 at OBS-NSA today. Soil drainage in boreal forests near Thompson, Manitoba, controls carbon storage and flux by controlling moss input and decomposition rates and by controlling through fire the amount and quality of carbon left after burning. On poorly drained soils rich in sphagnum moss, net accumulation and long-term storage of carbon is higher than on better drained soils colonized by feathermosses. The carbon flux of these contrasting ecosystems is best characterized by soil drainage class and stand age, where stands recently burned are net sources of CO 2 , and maturing stands become increasingly stronger sinks of atmospheric CO 2 . This approach to measuring carbon storage and flux presents a method of scaling to larger areas using soil drainage, moss cover, and stand age information.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1997

Winter CO2 fluxes in a boreal forest

We measured soil respiration during two winters in three different ecotypes of the BOREAS northern study area. The production of CO 2 was continuous throughout the winter and, when totaled for the winter of 1994–1995, was equivalent to the release of ∼40–55 g C/m 2 from the soil surface. As soils cooled in the early winter, the CO 2 production rate decreased in a manner that appeared to be exponentially related to shallow soil temperatures. This exponential relationship was not observed when soils began to warm, possibly indicating that there may be additional or different processes responsible for increased CO 2 production during winter warming events. We also measured CO 2 concentrations in soil gas and the Δ 14 C of the soil CO 2 . These measurements show that the CO 2 produced in winter is not simply the return to the atmosphere of the carbon fixed during the previous growing season. We suggest that the wintertime production of CO 2 originates, at least in part, from the decomposition of old organic carbon stored at depth in the soil.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2012

Improving the accuracy of S0 2 column densities and emission rates obtained from upward-looking UV-spectroscopic measurements of volcanic plumes by taking realistic radiative transfer into account

Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is monitored using ultraviolet (UV) absorption spectroscopy at numerous volcanoes around the world due to its importance as a measure of volcanic activity and a tracer for other gaseous species. Recent studies have shown that failure to take realistic radiative transfer into account during the spectral retrieval of the collected data often leads to large errors in the calculated emission rates. Here, the framework for a new evaluation method which couples a radiative transfer model to the spectral retrieval is described. In it, absorption spectra are simulated, and atmospheric parameters are iteratively updated in the model until a best match to the measurement data is achieved. The evaluation algorithm is applied to two example Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements conducted at Kilauea volcano (Hawaii). The resulting emission rates were 20 and 90% higher than those obtained with a conventional DOAS retrieval performed between 305 and 315 nm, respectively, depending on the different SO 2 and aerosol loads present in the volcanic plume. The internal consistency of the method was validated by measuring and modeling SO2 absorption features in a separate wavelength region around 375 nm and comparing the results. Although additional information about the measurement geometry and atmospheric conditions is needed in addition to the acquired spectral data, this method for the first time provides a means of taking realistic three-dimensional radiative transfer into account when analyzing UV-spectral absorption measurements of volcanic SO 2 plumes.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2006

Atmospheric chemistry of a 33-34 hour old volcanic cloud from Hekla Volcano (Iceland): Insights from direct sampling and the application of chemical box modeling

On 28 February 2000, a volcanic cloud from Hekla volcano, Iceland, was serendipitously sampled by a DC-8 research aircraft during the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE I). It was encountered at night at 10.4 km above sea level (in the lower stratosphere) and 33-34 hours after emission. The cloud is readily identified by abundant SO2 (???1 ppmv), HCl (???70 ppbv), HF (???60 ppbv), and particles (which may have included fine silicate ash). We compare observed and modeled cloud compositions to understand its chemical evolution. Abundances of sulfur and halogen species indicate some oxidation of sulfur gases but limited scavenging and removal of halides. Chemical modeling suggests that cloud concentrations of water vapor and nitric acid promoted polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation at 201-203 K, yielding ice, nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT), and liquid ternary solution H2SO4/H2O/HNO3 (STS) particles. We show that these volcanically induced PSCs, especially the ice and NAT particles, activated volcanogenic halogens in the cloud producing >2 ppbv ClOx. This would have destroyed ozone during an earlier period of daylight, consistent with the very low levels of ozone observed. This combination of volcanogenic PSCs and chlorine destroyed ozone at much faster rates than other PSCs that Arctic winter. Elevated levels of HNO3 and NOy in the cloud can be explained by atmospheric nitrogen fixation in the eruption column due to high temperatures and/or volcanic lightning. However, observed elevated levels of HOx remain unexplained given that the cloud was sampled at night. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2016

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2019

Assessing the seasonal dynamics of nitrate and sulfate aerosols at the South Pole utilizing stable isotopes

Atmospheric nitrate (NO 3 − = particulate NO 3 − + gas‐phase nitric acid [HNO 3 ]) and sulfate (SO 4 2− ) are key molecules that play important roles in numerous atmospheric processes. Here, the seasonal cycles of NO 3 − and total suspended particulate sulfate (SO 4 2− (TSP) ) were evaluated at the South Pole from aerosol samples collected weekly for approximately 10 months (26 January to 25 October) in 2002 and analyzed for their concentration and isotopic compositions. Aerosol NO 3 − was largely affected by snowpack emissions in which [NO 3 − ] and δ 15 N(NO 3 − ) were highest (49.3 ± 21.4 ng/m 3 , n = 8) and lowest (−47.0 ± 11.7‰, n = 5), respectively, during periods of sunlight in the interior of Antarctica. The seasonal cycle of Δ 17 O(NO 3 − ) reflected tropospheric chemistry year‐round with lower values observed during sunlight periods and higher values observed during dark periods, reflecting shifts from HO x ‐ to O 3 ‐dominated oxidation chemistry. SO 4 2− (TSP) concentrations were highest during austral summer and fall (86.7 ± 73.7 ng/m 3 , n = 18) and are indicated to be derived from dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions, as δ 34 S(SO 4 2− ) (TSP) values (18.5 ± 1.0‰, n = 10) were similar to literature δ 34 S(DMS) values. The seasonal cycle of Δ 17 O(SO 4 2− ) (TSP) exhibited minima during austral summer (0.9 ± 0.1‰, n = 5) and maxima during austral fall (1.3 ± 0.3‰, n = 6) and austral spring (1.6 ± 0.1‰, n = 5), indicating a shift from HO x ‐ to O 3 ‐dominated chemistry in the atmospheric derived SO 4 2− component. Overall, the budgets of NO 3 − and SO 4 2− (TSP) at the South Pole were complex functions of transport, localized chemistry, biological activity, and meteorological conditions, and these results will be important for interpretations of oxyanions in ice core records in the interior of Antarctica.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2002

Fire dynamics and implications for nitrogen cycling in boreal forests

We used a dynamic, long-term mass balance approach to track cumulative carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) losses to fire in boreal Manitoba over the 6500 years since deglaciation. Estimated C losses to decomposition and fire, combined with measurements of N pools in mature and burned forest floors, suggest that loss of N by combustion has likely resulted in a long-term loss that exceeds the amount of N stored in soil today by 2 to 3 times. These estimates imply that biological N fixation rates could be as high as 5 to 10 times atmospheric deposition rates in boreal regions. At the site scale, the amount of N lost is due to N content of fuels, which varies by stand type and fire severity, which in turn vary with climate and fire dynamics. The interplay of fire frequency, fire severity, and N partitioning during regrowth are important for understanding rates and sustainability of nutrient and carbon cycling over millenia and over broad regions.

Manitoba↗

USGS2014

Testing the accuracy of a 1-D volcanic plume model in estimating mass eruption rate

During volcanic eruptions, empirical relationships are used to estimate mass eruption rate from plume height. Although simple, such relationships can be inaccurate and can underestimate rates in windy conditions. One-dimensional plume models can incorporate atmospheric conditions and give potentially more accurate estimates. Here I present a 1-D model for plumes in crosswind and simulate 25 historical eruptions where plume height H obs was well observed and mass eruption rate M obs could be calculated from mapped deposit mass and observed duration. The simulations considered wind, temperature, and phase changes of water. Atmospheric conditions were obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 2.5° model. Simulations calculate the minimum, maximum, and average values ( M min , M max , and M avg ) that fit the plume height. Eruption rates were also estimated from the empirical formula M empir = 140 H obs 4.14 ( M empir is in kilogram per second, H obs is in kilometer). For these eruptions, the standard error of the residual in log space is about 0.53 for M avg and 0.50 for M empir . Thus, for this data set, the model is slightly less accurate at predicting M obs than the empirical curve. The inability of this model to improve eruption rate estimates may lie in the limited accuracy of even well-observed plume heights, inaccurate model formulation, or the fact that most eruptions examined were not highly influenced by wind. For the low, wind-blown plume of 14–18 April 2010 at Eyjafjallajökull, where an accurate plume height time series is available, modeled rates do agree better with M obs than M empir .

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1996

Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗