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Statistical implementations of agent-based demographic models

A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g., those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) for population demography. In a Bayesian setting, traditional computational algorithms for fitting hierarchical demographic models can be prohibitively cumbersome to construct. Thus, we discuss a variety of approaches for fitting statistical ABMs to data and demonstrate how to use multistage recursive Bayesian computing and statistical emulators to fit models in such a way that alleviates the need to have analytical knowledge of the ABM likelihood. Using two examples, a demographic model for survival and a compartment model for COVID-19, we illustrate statistical procedures for implementing ABMs. The approaches we describe are intuitive and accessible for practitioners and can be parallelized easily for additional computational eciency.

International Statistical Review

Annual review 2016: Exploration review

This summary of international mineral exploration activities for the year 2016 draws upon information from industry sources, published literature, SNL Metals & Mining (SNL), an offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence (New York, NY), and specialists in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Minerals Information Center. Three types of information are reported and analyzed in this annual review of international exploration: 1) budgetary statistics expressed in U.S. dollars provided by SNL; 2) regional and site-specific exploration activities that took place in 2016 as compiled by the USGS and 3) regional events and legislation that affected exploration activities including economic, social and political conditions, which were derived from published sources and discussions with USGS and industry specialists. Commodity and regional compilations are presented in this summary. Because multiple sources were used to develop commodity and regional compilations, statistics may vary depending on the source and type of data that are being reported.

Mining Engineering

Exploration Review

This summary of international mineral exploration activities for 2012 draws upon information from industry sources, published literature and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) specialists. The summary provides data on exploration budgets by region and mineral commodity, identifies significant mineral discoveries and areas of mineral exploration, discusses government programs affecting the mineral exploration industry and presents analyses of exploration activities performed by the mineral industry. Three sources of information are reported and analyzed in this annual review of international exploration for 2012: 1) budgetary statistics expressed in U.S. nominal dollars provided by SNL Metals Economics Group (MEG) of Halifax, Nova Scotia; 2) regional and site-specific exploration activities that took place in 2012 as compiled by the USGS and 3) regional events including economic, social and political conditions that affected exploration activities, which were derived from published sources and unpublished discussions with USGS and industry specialists.

Mining Engineering

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: Setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001. We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling

Book review: Extreme ocean waves

‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. Review info: Extreme Ocean Waves . By E. Pelinovsky and C. Kharif (eds), 2008. ISBN: 978-1402083136, xiii, 196 pp.

Pure and Applied Geophysics

Methods for quality-assurance review of water-quality data in New Jersey

This report is an instructional and reference manual that describes methods developed and used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), New Jersey District, to assure the accuracy and precision of the results of analyses of surface- and ground-water samples received from analyzing laboratories and, ultimately, to ensure the integrity of water-quality data in USGS databases and published reports. A statistical-analysis computer program, COMP.PPL, is used to determine whether the values reported by the laboratories are internally consistent, whether they are reasonable when compared with values for samples previously collected at the same site, and whether they exceed applicable drinking-water regulations. The program output consists of three files -- QWREVIEW, QWOUTLIERS, and QWCALC. QWREVIEW presents the results of tests of chemical logic and shows values that exceed drinking-water regulations. QWOUTLIERS identifies values that fall outside the historical range of values for the site sampled. QWCALC shows values and calculations used for reference purposes. Because values that are identified by the program as questionable may or may not be in error, the reviewer looks at both qualitative and quantitative relations between analytes during the period of record and then uses technical judgement to decide whether to accept a questionable value or investigate further. Guidelines for, and the use of regression analysis in, making this decision are described. Instructions are given for requesting that the analyzing laboratory reanalyze a constituent or otherwise verify the reported value. If, upon reanalysis or verification, a value is still questionable, consideration must be given to deleting the value or marking the value in the USGS National Water Information System database as having been reviewed and rejected.

New Jersey

Assessing human resources development in volcano observatories using the knowledge, attitude, and practice survey

The purpose of this study was to assess the role played by the International Training Course, given by the Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes (CSAV) at the University of Hawai’i at Hilo, in the development of human resources for volcano observatory staff around the world. The study design included a literature review, interviews with representatives from 10 national volcano observatories, and electronic surveys designed and conducted by Florida International University, targeting graduates of training courses sponsored by the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), a cooperative partnership between the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). The knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) method was used to develop a survey and a composite KAP index. Of the 92 individuals who answered the survey, 47 had completed the CSAV course. Two groups were formed from the survey respondents: (1) 47 people who were CSAV graduates; and (2) 45 people who did not take CSAV training. An independent samples t "> t t test and a one-way multivariate analysis were conducted to compare the KAP index and the three subindices. The heads of the volcano observatories identified the CSAV International Training as one of the most useful educational offerings relevant to volcano observatory operations available worldwide. The statistical analysis showed significant differences in the KAP index, knowledge subindex, and practice subindex between the two study groups. Results indicate that CSAV graduates are in a better position to attain self-sufficiency in studying and monitoring volcanoes, and by doing so, contribute more effectively to mitigation efforts for volcanic unrest and eruptions.

Natural Hazards Review

Hunting statistics: what data for what use? An account of an international workshop

Hunting interacts with the underlying dynamics of game species in several different ways and is, at the same time, a source of valuable information not easily obtained from populations that are not subjected to hunting. Specific questions, including the sustainability of hunting activities, can be addressed using hunting statistics. Such investigations will frequently require that hunting statistics be combined with data from other sources of population-level information. Such reflections served as a basis for the meeting, ?Hunting Statistics: What Data for What Use,? held on January 15-18, 2001 in Saint-Benoist, France. We review here the 20 talks held during the workshop and the contribution of hunting statistics to our knowledge of the population dynamics of game species. Three specific topics (adaptive management, catch-effort models, and dynamics of exploited populations) were highlighted as important themes and are more extensively presented as boxes.

Game and Wildlife Science

Application of organic geochemistry to coastal tar residues from central California

Tar residues are common on the coastline of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. These coastal tar residues have been washed ashore and usually occur on headlands near the high-tide line. In this study, 18 coastal tar residues were collected and analyzed to determine their carbon isotopic compositions and the values of selected biomarker ratios. All of the residues have very heavy ( 13 C-enriched) carbon isotopic compositions spanning a narrow range (δ 13 C = −22.2 to −23.4‰), and 28,30-bisnorhopane is present in all samples. These same geochemical characteristics are found in Monterey Formation oils from which the coastal tar residues were likely derived. These coastal residues could result from natural seeps or from accidental spills. Statistically the coastal tar residues can be organized into three groups, each of which may represent different spill or seep events. Seven samples of potential local representative sources for the tar residues were examined, but none could account for the coastal tars.

California

Developing and implementing an International Macroseismic Scale (IMS) for earthquake engineering, earthquake science, and rapid damage assessment

Executive Summary Macroseismic observations and analysis connect our collective seismological past with the present and the present to the future by facilitating hazard estimates and communicating the effects of ground shaking to a wide variety of audiences across the ages. Invaluable ground shaking and building damage information is gained through standardized, systematic approaches for assigning intensities and, importantly, sharing and archiving those assignments in a reproducible form. The applications for these assignments are far reaching. Traditional macroseismic surveys provide vital constraints on critical aspects of earthquakes and their effects on society, whereas internet-based macroseismic datasets are extremely valuable for real-time earthquake situational awareness, and they contribute to later engineering loss and risk analyses. These important applications of macroseismic observations would be helped by revisiting traditional macroseismic surveys for modern environments, standardizing internet-based collection strategies, and ensuring compatibility between traditional and internet-based approaches of macroseismic data collection. Even with best practices, we have identified several limitations with modern macroseismic data collection approaches, particularly from the U.S. Geological Survey's perspective. First, whereas crowdsourced, internet-based intensities such as “Did You Feel It?” are robust and definitive for lower intensities, they are poorly defined above intensity VII, where damage observations may require expert knowledge of each building’s structural system. Second, in the United States, we use the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale, which is consistent with—yet inferior to—the more recently developed European Macroseismic Scale (EMS–98; Grünthal and others, 1998). Similarly, New Zealand uses the New Zealand MMI Scale (Dowrick and others, 2008), which lacks detail on how to assign intensities above MMI VIII. The EMS–98 fundamentally advanced the science of macroseismic intensity assignment by requiring quantitative assessments at each location through consistent application on statistical ranges of well-defined damage grades to building-specific vulnerability classes. Lastly, the United States and New Zealand no longer have professionals dedicated to conducting traditional macroseismic field surveys, so a strategy is needed for allowing postearthquake building inspectors and insurance loss assessors to contribute to intensity assignments. The goals of our International Macroseismic Scale workshop were thus twofold. First, harmonize the MMI Scale with EMS–98 for the United States and New Zealand—which share several similar building types—by considering those structures and associated damage grades that are not well represented in the current EMS–98 building vulnerability class table. Second, begin to formalize the process of augmenting EMS–98 with new regional building classes and damage grades toward the development of a macroseismic scale that can be used globally, beyond the United States and New Zealand. Such an effort necessarily requires reviewing and expanding the original EMS–98 explanatory documents and consideration of any required revisions. We can build on the shoulders of giants in that a few of the original EMS–98 developers and experts participated in and were integral to our workshop. Their background and guidance were key in moving forward toward an international scale. We agreed that additional building vulnerability classes, damage grades, and written and pictorial descriptions are necessary and ideally accompanied by a detailed paper trail for other nations to follow. If we can improve the macroseismic assignment process in both nations, we can also aim to refine the process of collecting postearthquake impact data, a boon to many engineering and financial concerns. The benefits of a truly International Macroseismic Scale are considerable for both the engineering and seismology communities. A modern macroseismic scale requires more deliberate archival damage data collection, motivating more consistent and accessible postevent datasets that would have applications beyond the specific event. Applying field-collected building damage data toward macroseismic assignments would allow for increased coordination between engineering reconnaissance teams and local inspectors in collecting such data for official purposes. In addition, rapid and consistent intensity assignments globally would enable more accurate ShakeMaps—and thus improved earthquake engineering and geotechnical forensics, loss and risk estimates, and correlations between macroseismic intensity and ground motion parameters. A brief summary of the Powell Center IMS workshop was published by Wald and others (2023) in the magazine Eos. This Open-File Report describes the workshop, its discussions, and its outcomes in detail. In summarizing the workshop, we have added important background material and reflections for proper context.

Open-File Report

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews

Measuring the impacts of natural amenities and the US-Mexico Border, on housing values in the Santa Cruz Watershed, using spatially-weighted hedonic modeling

Assessing the sustainability of International policy or urban development requires consideration of the impacts of these decisions on Ecosystem Services, or the values that humans receive from the ecosystem, including market-land price, environmental, and human well-being values. Hedonic modeling helps to identify the market land price, considering the price is determined by multiple factors affecting it. In U.S. portions of the bi-national Santa Cruz Watershed (SCW), situated at the Arizona-Sonora International border, natural amenities like the riparian corridor and green space have been documented as positive amenities that boost local real estate. The goal of this research is to isolate the effects of the US-Mexico border and known environmental or natural amenities or disamenities on housing prices in the binational watershed, while controlling for housing stock characteristics and social-environmental vulnerability. In the ultimate analysis, the mean house values within census blocks will be used to represent local housing stock. A human well-being index that measures people’s socio-environmental vulnerability for the entire SCW is in publication that is based on access to infrastructure, number of bedrooms per house and other social data from the binational census and local colonias database will also be compared. The hedonic pricing method will be applied to statistically estimate a function that relates property values to the variables described. This presentation will provide a synopsis of the quality of life and hedonics literature review used to develop this research agenda. Variables relevant for local environmental management, having significant effects on property values, will be discussed. The final results obtained from this study can be used determine the benefits of preserving or developing land binationally and will be uploaded to the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online Ecosystem Services tool, being created to promote sustainable development in the Borderlands.

Conference Paper

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Identifying monitoring gaps for amphibian populations in a North American biodiversity hotspot, the southeastern USA

I review the primary literature to ascertain the status of amphibian monitoring efforts in the southeastern USA, a “hotspot” for biodiversity in North America. This effort revealed taxonomic, geographic and ecological disparities in studies of amphibian populations in this region. Of the species of anurans and caudates known to occur in the Southeast, 73.8 and 33.3 %, respectively, have been monitored continuously for at least 4 years. Anurans are generally shorter-lived than are caudates and, thus, have been studied for the equivalent of at least one population turnover more than have caudates. The percentage of species (of those occurring in a given state) monitored continuously for at least 4 years was lowest for Alabama and Mississippi and highest for Florida for both taxa. The vast majority of studies (69.6 %) were conducted on species that inhabit natural freshwater wetlands, in contrast to other aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Species considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature comprised only 7.7 % of 65 species that have been studied consistently. The majority of comparative studies of contemporary versus historical occurrences were potentially biased by the use of “presence-only” historical data and resurveys of short duration. Other issues, such as inadequate temporal and spatial scale and neglect of different sources of error, were common. Awareness of these data gaps and sampling and statistical issues may help facilitate informed decisions in setting future monitoring priorities, particularly with respect to species, habitats and locations that have been largely overlooked in past and ongoing studies.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,

The effects of management practices on grassland birds — An introduction to North American grasslands and the practices used to manage grasslands and grassland birds

The Great Plains of North America is defined as the land mass that encompasses the entire central portion of the North American continent that, at the time of European settlement, was an unbroken expanse of primarily herbaceous vegetation. The Great Plains extend from central Saskatchewan and Alberta to central Mexico and from Indiana to the Rocky Mountains. The expanses of herbaceous vegetation are often referred to as native prairie or native grasslands. Native grasslands share the characteristics of a general uniformity in vegetation structure, dominance by grasses and forbs, a near absence of trees and shrubs, annual precipitation ranging from 25 to 100 centimeters, extreme intra-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and a flat to rolling topography over which fires can spread. To the west of the Great Plains lie the sagebrush communities of the Great Basin, which extend from British Columbia and Saskatchewan to northern Arizona and New Mexico and from the eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges to western South Dakota. Sagebrush communities share similar characteristics to native grasslands, but their location east of the Rocky Mountains creates a more moderating influence from prevailing westerly winds that affect timing of peak precipitation and growth form of dominant vegetation. Native grasslands and sagebrush communities harbor a diverse array of grassland, wetland, and woodland plant and animal communities that are uniquely adapted to the natural forces of the Great Plains and Great Basin, namely the interactive forces of climate, fire, and grazing. The arrival of European settlers to North America brought profound change to native grassland and sagebrush communities, including the establishment of permanent towns and cities, the proliferation of cropland-based agricultural systems, and the suppression of wildfires. The near extirpation of bison by the 1860s paved the way for dramatic changes in the dominant grazers and a shift in the disturbance patterns that historically influenced vegetation structure. The greatest threat to native grasslands and sagebrush communities in modern times is their loss due to conversion to rowcrop agriculture and to urbanization. Concomitant with habitat loss is a precipitous decline in populations of bird species that evolved with, and are uniquely adapted to, the native grassland and sagebrush habitats. Avian population trends are linked strongly to agricultural land use. Besides outright loss of suitable breeding habitat, agricultural practices affect birds through factors such as pesticide exposure, habitat fragmentation, shifts in predator community composition, and occurrence of brood parasites. Bird populations face other stressors, such as loss of habitat to and behavioral avoidance of urbanized areas, roads, and infrastructure associated with energy production. Despite the many anthropogenic changes to North American grassland and sagebrush communities, some bird species are adaptable and opportunistic in their habitat selection and now utilize one or more human-created habitats. Human-created habitats include pastures, hayfields, agricultural terraces, crop buffer strips, field borders, grassed waterways, fencerows, road rights-of-way, airports, reclaimed coal mines, and planted wildlife cover. Fields of seeded grasslands enrolled in Federal long-term set-aside programs, such as the Conservation Reserve Program in the United States and the Permanent Cover Program in Canada, provide important nesting habitat for grassland bird species. The array of habitats used by birds makes habitat and avian management a complex undertaking, and the scale (for example, local, regional, international) at which management actions can be implemented are such that a universal approach to managing grasslands for the conservation of the entire suite of bird species does not exist. Experienced land managers recognize that it is impossible to manage for all bird species simultaneously, and thus, prioritization is necessary towards those habitats or bird species that the manager or management agency ranks highest for a specific region or management unit. The primary tools available for management are burning, grazing, mowing, herbicide application, and idling, but before choosing a particular practice, a manager will want to consider issues of seasonality, intensity, and frequency. Despite the thousands of studies that are cited in this compendium, much remains unknown about the effects of management practices on bird species. The series of species accounts in this compendium review the current state of knowledge regarding management of grassland and sagebrush bird species and summarize information on the effects of management practices on individual species. The accounts do not give definitive statements on the effects of management practices for any particular species, primarily because there are very few replicated studies in which identical management practices have been applied in the same geographical area with consistent results, which are elements necessary to provide concrete recommendations for the management of a particular species in a particular area. Documentation of the effects of management treatments on individual species through statistically sound methods that incorporate multiple years and locations will further scientists’ and land managers’ knowledge far more than 1–2-year studies that are limited in scope as well as time, but studies of that scope and breadth are rare.

Professional Paper

Monitoring amphibians in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Amphibian species have inexplicably declined or disappeared in many regions of the world, and in some instances, serious malformations have been observed. In the United States, amphibian declines frequently have occurred even in protected areas. Causes for the declines and malformations probably are varied and may not even be related. The seemingly sudden declines in widely separated areas, however, suggests a need to monitor amphibian populations as well as identify the causes when declines or malformations are discovered. In 2000, the President of the United States and Congress directed Department of the Interior (DOI) agencies to develop a plan to monitor the trends in amphibian populations on DOI lands and to conduct causes of declines. The DOI has stewardship responsibilities over vast land holdings in the United States, much of it occupied by, or potential habitat for, amphibians. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was given lead responsibility for planning and organizing this program, named the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI). Authorization carried the mandate to set up a national amphibian monitoring program on Federal lands, to develop the sampling techniques and biometrical analyses necessary to determine status and trends, and to identify possible causes of amphibian declines and malformations. The biological importance of Great Smoky Mountains National Park has been recognized by its designation as an International Biosphere Reserve. As such, it is clearly the leading region of significance for amphibian research. Although no other region shares the wealth of amphibians as found in the Great Smokies (31 species of salamanders, and 13 of frogs), the entire southern and mid-section of the Appalachian Mountain chain is characterized by a high diversity of amphibians, and inventories and monitoring protocols developed in the Smokies likely will be applicable to other Appalachian National Park Service properties. From 1998 to 2001, USGS biologists carried out a pilot inventory and monitoring research project in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. A variety of inventory, sampling, and monitoring techniques were employed and tested. These included wide-scale visual encounter surveys of amphibians at terrestrial and aquatic sites, intensive monitoring of selected plots, randomly placed small-grid plot sampling, litterbag sampling in streams, monitoring nesting females of selected species, call surveys, and monitoring specialized habitats, such as caves. Coupled with information derived from amphibian surveys on Federal lands using various other techniques (automated frog call data loggers, PVC pipes, drift fences, terrestrial and aquatic traps), an amphibian monitoring program was designed to best meet the needs of biologists and natural resource managers after taking into consideration the logistics, terrain, and life histories of the species found within Great Smoky Mountains National Park. This report provides an overview of the Park’s amphibians, the factors affecting their distribution, a review of important areas of biodiversity, and a summary of amphibian life history in the Southern Appalachians. In addition, survey techniques are described as well as examples of how the techniques are set up, a critique of what the results tell the observer, and a discussion of the limitations of the techniques and the data. The report reviews considerations for site selection, outlines steps for biosecurity and for processing diseased or dying animals, and provides resource managers with a decision tree on how to monitor the Park’s amphibians based on different levels of available resources. It concludes with an extensive list of references for inventorying and monitoring amphibians. USGS and Great Smoky Mountains National Park biologists need to establish cooperative efforts and training to ensure that congressionally mandated amphibian surveys are performed in a statistically rigorous and biologically meaningful manner, and that amphibian populations on Federal lands are monitored to ensure their long-term survival. The research detailed in this report will aid these cooperative efforts.

North Carolina, Tennessee

Quantification of geodetic strain rate uncertainties and implications for seismic hazard estimates

Geodetic velocity data provide first-order constraints on crustal surface strain rates, which in turn are linked to seismic hazard. Estimating the 2-D surface strain tensor everywhere requires knowledge of the surface velocity field everywhere, while geodetic data such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) only have spatially scattered measurements on the surface of the Earth. To use these data to estimate strain rates, some type of interpolation is required. In this study, we review methodologies for strain rate estimation and compare a suite of methods, including a new implementation based on the geostatistical method of kriging, to compare variation between methods with uncertainty based on one method. We estimate the velocity field and calculate strain rates in southern California using a GNSS velocity field and five different interpolation methods to understand the sources of variability in inferred strain rates. Uncertainty related to data noise and station spacing (aleatoric uncertainty) is minimal where station spacing is dense and maximum far from observations. Differences between methods, related to epistemic uncertainty, are usually highest in areas of high strain rate due to differences in how gradients in the velocity field are handled by different interpolation methods. Parameter choices, unsurprisingly, have a strong influence on strain rate field, and we propose the traditional L -curve approach as one method for quantifying the inherent trade-off between fit to the data and models that are reflective of tectonic strain rates. Doing so, we find total variability between five representative strain rate models to be roughly 40 per cent, a much lower value than roughly 100 per cent that was found in previous studies (Hearn et al .). Using multiple methods to tune parameters and calculate strain rates provides a better understanding of the range of acceptable models for a given velocity field. Finally, we present an open-source Python package (Materna et al .) for calculating strain rates, Strain_2D, which allows for the same data and model grid to be used in multiple strain rate methods, can be extended with other methods from the community, and provides an interface for comparing strain rate models, calculating statistics and estimating strain rate uncertainty for a given GNSS data set.

Geophysical Journal International

Critical metals in manganese nodules from the Cook Islands EEZ, abundances and distributions

The Cook Islands (CIs) Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) encompasses 1,977,000 km 2 and includes the Penrhyn and Samoa basins abyssal plains where manganese nodules flourish due to the availability of prolific nucleus material, slow sedimentation rates, and strong bottom currents. A group of CIs nodules was analyzed for mineralogical and chemical composition, which include many critical metals not before analyzed for CIs nodules. These nodules have varying sizes and nuclei material; however all are composed predominantly of δ-MnO 2 and X-ray amorphous iron oxyhydroxide. The mineralogy, Fe/Mn ratios, rare earth element contents, and slow growth rates (mean 1.9 mm/10 6 years) reflect formation primarily by hydrogenetic precipitation. The paucity of diagenetic input can be explained by low primary productivity at the surface and resultant low organic matter content in seafloor sediment, producing oxic seafloor and sub-seafloor environments. The nodules contain high mean contents of Co (0.41%), Ni (0.38%), Ti (1.20%), and total rare earth elements plus yttrium (REY; 0.167%), and also high contents of Mo, Nb, V, W, and Zr. Compiled data from a series of four cruises by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Mining agency of Japan from 1985 to 2000 were used to generate a map that defines the statistical distribution of nodule abundance throughout the EEZ, except the Manihiki Plateau. The abundance distribution map shows a belt of high nodule abundance (19–45 kg/m 2 ) that starts in the southeast corner of the EEZ, runs northwest, and also bifurcates into a SW trending branch. Small, isolated areas contain abundances of nodules of up to 58 kg/m 2 . Six ~ 20,000 km 2 areas of particularly high abundance were chosen to represent potential exploration areas, and maps for metal concentration were generated to visualize metal distribution and to extrapolate estimated metal tonnages within the six sites and the EEZ as a whole. Grades for Mn, Cu, and Ni are low in CIs nodules in areas of high abundance; however, Ti, Co, and REY show high contents where nodule abundances are high. Of the six areas identified to represent a range of metal contents, one at the northern end of the N-S abundance main belt optimizes the most metals and would yield the highest dry metric tons for Mn (61,002,292), Ni (1,247,834), Mo (186,166), V (356,247), W (30,215), and Zr (195,323). When compared with the Clarion–Clipperton Zone, the CIs nodules show higher nodule abundances (> 25 kg/m 2 over ~ 123,844 km 2 ), and are more enriched in the green-tech, high-tech, and energy metals Co, Ti, Te, Nb, REY, Pt, and Zr. The CIs EEZ shows a significant resource potential for these critical metals due to their high prices, high demand, and the high nodule abundance, which will allow for a smaller footprint for a 20-year mine site and therefore smaller environmental impact.

Ore Geology Reviews